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M2ST34 trade ideas

MSTR Short-term Short: Bitcoin Holdings and Market DynamicsNASDAQ:MSTR is currently approaching its all-time high of $200, presenting a potential short opportunity due to its significant divergence from COINBASE:BTCUSD performance. As of October 9, 2024, MSTR's market capitalization stands at approximately $36 billion, more than double the value of its Bitcoin holdings, which are valued at $15.64 billion based on 252,220 BTC at a price of about $62,000 per Bitcoin. MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Strategy: Aggressive and leveraged Bitcoin acquisition Continuously converting profits into BTC at market rates Long-term holding strategy Issued convertible senior notes to fund additional Bitcoin purchases Positioned as a leveraged Bitcoin investment The Role of Options in Driving MSTR's Price The options market plays a crucial role in driving MSTR's price higher than its Bitcoin holdings would suggest. Several dynamics contribute to this effect: Gamma Squeezes: As MSTR's price approaches strike prices of outstanding call options, market makers buy more shares to hedge, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of buying pressure. Leverage Effect: Options allow traders to control larger positions with less capital, amplifying price movements in the underlying stock. Speculative Interest: High volatility in MSTR attracts options traders, increasing overall market activity and potentially exacerbating price swings. Delta Hedging: Continuous adjustments by options dealers can add to price momentum. Implied Volatility: High implied volatility leads to higher option prices, influencing trader behavior and perceptions of the stock's value. These multivariate options market forces, combined with MSTR's unique position as a publicly traded company with significant Bitcoin holdings, have created a volatile and potentially disconnected trading environment. The current rally in MSTR's stock price, despite Bitcoin's recent correction, may be partly driven by these options dynamics. However, this situation also presents the possibility of a sharp reversal if Bitcoin fails to recover quickly or if the options-driven momentum slows. Key Considerations for Traders: Interplay between MSTR's core business and its Bitcoin holdings Impact of MSTR's leveraged position on potential gains and risks Influence of options market dynamics on stock price Current divergence between MSTR's price and Bitcoin's movement Potential for short-term correction if Bitcoin doesn't recover quickly Remember: This idea is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by XrayTrades
1
$MSTR Mother of all short squeezes done?MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) has recently drawn attention as its stock appears to be undergoing a potential short squeeze, causing rapid price surges. A short squeeze occurs when heavily shorted stocks experience significant upward pressure as short sellers rush to cover their positions, which drives the price even higher. This buying frenzy, often fueled by both institutional and retail investors, can result in volatile price movements. MicroStrategy, known for its substantial Bitcoin holdings, has seen increased volatility in tandem with Bitcoin’s price fluctuations, making it a prime target for speculative trading. Additionally, analysts are observing a potential megaphone top pattern forming on NASDAQ:MSTR ’s stock chart. A megaphone top, also known as a broadening formation, is a technical pattern that signals increasing volatility and wider price swings, typically seen as a precursor to a market reversal. It forms when the stock price reaches higher highs and lower lows, resembling a megaphone shape. This pattern indicates growing indecision among investors, which could lead to a sharp decline once the uptrend breaks. The combination of a short squeeze and a megaphone top pattern points to a high-risk trading environment for MicroStrategy in the near term, warranting caution for investors.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by UnknownUnicorn35181237
7
MSTR Swing IdeaNASDAQ:MSTR , COINBASE:BTCUSD MSTR swing idea. Earnings are in the way here, and I have no interest in hitching a ride. The IV is jacked, but I do still like an ER run up idea, with the likely target being 200. Continued strength could see the push higher though, especially if BTC breaks out of it's falling wedge on the weekly. Would still plan to enter at 178.24 and trim at 183.70, but I will be looking at a vert spread instead of regular calls. Oct25 +180c/-190c for around 3.68 with the underlying at 178.24.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by D_Rockefeller
MSTR/BTCHi, this chart is Microstrategy denominated in Satoshis. You can see that I changed the currency in the drop-down menu in the top, right-hand corner. So what do we see? Saylor turning bullish sats. It’s always wonderful to find something that is bullish sats, because if it’s not bullish sats, then there’s no reason to be in it. CIFR is also looking like it can turn net bullish Sats, so I have a position in that. And now, Yesterday, I have a position in MSTU, which is 2XMSTR ETF with a 2% daily decay. One strategy might be to sell MSTU when MSTR/BTC reaches your upside target. That is $770 MSTR at today’s Bitcoin price, or $1500 MSTU, and it’s $44 at the week close. Good luck out there traders.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by Shammus01
Opening (IRA): MSTR Nov 15th 121 Monied Covered Call... for a 111.20 debit. Comments: High IV (88.8%). Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put with the built-in defense of the short call. Back into MSTR after taking off my previous November setup in profit. (See Post Below). This has earnings on 11/6, so I'll be looking to take it off before then ... . Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 111.20 Max Profit: 9.80 ROC at Max: 8.81% 50% Max: 4.90 ROC at 50% Max: 4.41%
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by NaughtyPines
MSTR is well prepared for a BOOM season -- may retest 450 soon!MSTR has corrected extensively since peaking at 450 range last July. Now, LONG POSITIONS has started accumulating at the current price range based on daily metrics. Significant net buy volume has been registered -- almost overtaking average numbers this past few days. This a definite sign that a new base is currently being cemented for a new ascend movement soon -- for the long term. It is currently bouncing off a 78.6 FIB level with precision - a major order block support. Expect some significant upside volatility from the present levels. Spotted at 325.0 TAYOR. Safeguard funds always. ------------------------------------- SOME RELATED NEWS: MicroStrategy Bought 5,445 Bitcoin for $150M Since August The software ompany now holds nearly $4.68 billion worth of the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. By Shaurya Malwa AccessTimeIconSep 25, 2023 at 8:25 p.m. Updated Sep 26, 2023 at 12:40 a.m. Software developer MicroStrategy (MSTR) purchased nearly $150 million worth of bitcoin (BTC) between Aug.1 and Sept.24, it said in a Monday regulatory filing. "MicroStrategy, together with its subsidiaries, acquired approximately 5,445 bitcoins for approximately $147.3 million in cash, at an average price of approximately $27,053 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses," the company said in the filing.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by JSAL
4
MSTR returns to a bullish status ? What a hype on the tech values ! After a correction and a consolidation materialised by the range, MicroStrategy will return to a bullish status ? My idea is the following : - Technically, we have break the most important Fibonnacci's value : 61.8% - Fundamentally, all economic figures are in green (inflation decreases, rates too). That's why I will trade this stocks by waiting the pull-back on 61.8% with the following inputs : - SL just below 50% - TP #1 is 100% of Fibonnacci movement. - TP #2 is the all time high This is a short-term trade as a swing position - not an investment idea. Take care GUYS !!
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by QuentinKister
Opened (IRA): MSTR October 18th 119 Monied Covered Call... for a 110.75 debit. Comments: I don't do a ton of single name in my IRA, but with earnings in the rear view and 30-day IV at 81.7%, taking a "poos and giggles" trade here, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a +25 delta short put, with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 110.75 Max Profit: 8.25 ROC at Max: 7.45% 50% Max: 4.13 ROC at 50% Max: 3.72%
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by NaughtyPines
MSTR Top 10 SPY Company in 2025. Michael Saylor has taken the all in method in accumulating Bitcoin and allowing large institutions to front run the cheap credit cards using senior convertible debt bonds. He bypassed the SEC regulations and jumped in front of BlackRock. Now Blackrock late to the party is slowly allocating global pension funds to the IBIT fund while the recessions fear spreads in the market. Bitcoin has been in a sideways accumulation period for 6.01months, the last time Bitcoin has been in a sideways accumulation this long was in late 2012-2013. When the market turns around and comes to reality that Institutions are allocating for the next decade and aren't planning on selling the Bitcoin price will start to run harder than 2017-2020 combined. MSTR - Will become the Berkshire Hathaway of Bitcoin's world. MSTR owns 266,500 Bitcoin Blackrock owns 357,771 Bitcoin Fidelity owns 179,267 Its pretty clear retail are making the biggest mistake in the market cycle drip feeding the Bitcoin like its not about to be repriced over $200,000. And its clear why Michael Saylor stock split MSTR. When does the market turn? my guess is when Blackrock get the options approved on their Spot ETFs. Once this is initiated it will allow them to essentially rob the blind who short Bitcoin and they will start rising allocations betting on their fund and using the profits to buy even more Bitcoin. Welcome to Wall Street Bitcoin.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by UnknownUnicorn4782510