MSTR thelogman, interesting comparison to land. I get it. Do you think former buyers of MSTR are starting to lose faith in the basic stock and moving to the high-yield instruments? Is Saylor saturating the MSTR market, basically? I am trying to figure out why VERY suddenly, MSTR decoupled from it's leveraged share price return against BTC, around May 9, 2025. MSTR should have peaked around $550-600 on July 14, and MSTY should have exceeded $30 easily. I am actually here for MSTY, but need to discuss MSTR for obvious reasons. MSTY treats me right as long as I can buy low and sell high and capture the dividend in the meantime. The problem lately has been the "sell high" part. I need to game out what happens if MSTY goes to $10, or worse. Hope for the best, but expect the worst.
MSTR The company is at a critical inflection point, with its mNAV hovering near 1.65, one of the lowest levels in over a year. This reflects growing market skepticism about the company’s ability to sustain its capital structure, especially as Saylor has committed not to issue new equity unless mNAV exceeds 2.5.
With no meaningful operating income, minimal cash, and a growing dependence on high-yield STRx instruments like STRC to meet dividend and interest obligations, the company is walking a financial tightrope. If mNAV fails to recover, particularly if it falls below 1.60, MSTR will face a confidence spiral, where funding options dry up, short interest spikes, and legal or reputational risks emerge.
Despite holding over $70 billion in Bitcoin, the market is signaling distress, and unless BTC rallies hard or STRx demand surges, MSTR will soon be forced into a strategic pivot... Or a reckoning.
Bitcoin shares some similarities with raw undeveloped land. It is a scarce asset with high perceived long-term value but limited near-term utility. Both have a finite supply (they stopped making land years ago), are illiquid at scale, tend to be hoarded by true believers and exhibit long holding cycles.
Both have grown in value exponentially through the years. But you can only realize that value if you sell, which is a dilemma. That creates a paradox: institutions like MSTR sit on billions in unrealized BTC gains but can’t tap it without triggering tax liabilities, crushing investor sentiment or breaking the narrative of BTC as a long-term reserve asset.
I have personally known many farmers and huge landowners over the years, I'm talking about owning tens of thousands of acres, that couldn't afford to pay their property taxes or even their light bill some months. They were asset rich but cash poor.
MSTR is worth billions on paper. Meanwhile, obligations like dividends, debt interest, and operating expenses keep ticking. It's like owning a $70 billion-dollar land parcel, but you still can’t pay your utility bill without taking out a loan on it.
In short: BTC is rich man’s collateral, not cash flow. That distinction matters more than ever now as we see the mNAV compress, in part due to the carrying cost MSTR has taken on to acquire their hoard.
MSTR very happy I sold my calls (substantial loss but salvaged a good bit) first thing this morning and captured IV premium , they literally went to basically 0 wow. This definetely was not a MARA earnings pump and dump like was expecting just a dump and dump.
MSTR thelogman, interesting comparison to land. I get it. Do you think former buyers of MSTR are starting to lose faith in the basic stock and moving to the high-yield instruments? Is Saylor saturating the MSTR market, basically? I am trying to figure out why VERY suddenly, MSTR decoupled from it's leveraged share price return against BTC, around May 9, 2025. MSTR should have peaked around $550-600 on July 14, and MSTY should have exceeded $30 easily. 
