Tech 2x leverage ETF's // mull, tsmu mstuI recently purchased mstu and even more recently looked at their chart😊. Their first candle on Wed the 18th to todays close is just proud of 400%. I am currently down about 4%. MSTR chart from Oct 18 to close today is roughly 150%. So…
The ETF accelerated faster than a 2x pace for the first month. I understand MSTR is super popular right now and that that likely helped the etf, however, it got me to thinking. Are leveraged ETFs in general accelerating faster than the underlying consistently upon launch? Well the answer is no.
I looked at recent 2x launches going back to the low in early August and mstu is an outlier.
I did see crwl for CRWD and tsmu for TSM. They were introduced this week. On our Remembrance Day in fact. Respect to US Veterans Day.
Both underlying stocks are solid in my opinion. Especially so in the seasonal broad race to the New Year. The chart I chose to show was MU…mainly because of the range its been playing in. I think it’s consolidating in the warmth of the March gap and going to break to the up side. US government has announced that $39 Billion will be released through the chips act and both TSM // MU will be recipients. BOOST!
To whomever is trading for the MSTU company; Well done team...genuinely, well done. Congrats on the listing. Blunt question for you; is the accelerated growth beyond a 2x result in this first month solely on your trades or are you using VC dollars to create a curve? I hope it’s the former…and I wish you all the best.
P.S.A to anyone looking at mstr call options…the IV is ±130% last time I looked for anything in Q1 of 2025. Brutal. You might as well by spot. Don’t get burned.
Take care,
MR
MUTC34 trade ideas
MU has closed above resistance MU has triggered my second entry with a close above resistance yesterday. My buy order is at 113.87 just above yesterdays high and my stop is at 105.60 just below the gap from 06 Nov. the 8 ema is above the 21 and 2ema is currently above the 89 ema pointing a short and longer term trend change. The angular trend line could also be used for a trailing stop until a better level presents itself. I try to remain flexible within my risk management rules!
Difference between candles and barsHey traders and investors!
What is the difference between using candles or bars on a chart?
This example clearly shows the key difference. Take note of the closing price of the candle on September 26 (point 8 of the range). On a candlestick chart, this is impossible to understand. On a bar chart, the closing price is clearly visible. The closing price is below the range boundary of 111.34, the trading volume is enormous, and the buyer was unable to break above the range.
Now, the price has reached the range boundary of 111.34 for the second time on increased volume, and the seller has absorbed the buyer, forming a buyer's zone at the upper boundary of the range. There is a high probability of further price decline within the short vector 8-9 of the range (potential target 85.92). However, there are threats along the seller's path.
You might consider buying at the 98.7 level (if buyer will protect it) or around 84-86.
Good luck with your trading and investments!
Opening (IRA): MU Nov 15th 95 Covered Call... for a 92.53 debit.
Comments: Post-earnings, IV remains somewhat decent here at 45.2%. Selling the -80 delta call against long stock to emulate the metrics of a 20 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 92.53/share
Max Profit: 2.47
ROC at Max: 2.67%
50% Max: 1.24
ROC at 50% Max: 1.33%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out the short call on test.
MU - Time to build long positionMU is pulling back on low volume to fill the earning gap.
Started a small long position, this has scope to go further down to fill the gap completely.
If so, Around 95-96 is the good entry
Long around - 95-96
Stop Loss - 90
Target 1 - 120
Target 2 - 130
Target 3 - 135-140
Micron Technology – New Growth Cycle Key Supporting Arguments
▪ Rising sales of AI-enabled smartphones and PCs
▪ Favorable pricing environment for memory chips in the upcoming quarters
▪ A quarterly report that will be released on September 25 is expected to be strong and provide a more positive outlook for this quarter and the year
▪ Micron Technology has resumed its buyback program
Investment Thesis
Rising sales of AI-enabled smartphones and PCs. The robust sales of AI smartphones, including Apple and Samsung devices, along with a new PC refresh cycle in the coming quarters, should bolster sales of the company’s memory chips. In the second quarter of 2024, sales of AI-enabled PCs increased by more than 100%, contributing 85% to the quarterly sales growth. According to IDC’s initial estimates, PC and smartphone sales growth will further accelerate in the third quarter, and the penetration of memory chip-intensive AI devices will continue to expand. Micron Technology’s management projects that AI-enabled PCs will have on average 40-80% more DRAM, and DRAM in AI smartphones will increase by 50- 100%, which will bolster the growth in demand for DRAM chips. Minimum SSD capacity for AI-enabled PCs has already doubled, while the expansion of SSD capacity in smartphones is driven by an increasing share of premium fullconfigured devices in total sales. Major U.S. telecommunications companies have independently reported extremely strong demand for iPhone 16, with consumers favoring more expensive models.
Favorable pricing environment for memory chips in the upcoming quarters. Recent data from TrendForce and comments from Micron management suggest that pricing environment remains favorable. DRAM chip prices are expected to rise by approximately 11% through the third quarter of 2024. Since August, Samsung and SK Hynix have raised the prices of DDR5 chips by 15-20%, and Micron will undoubtedly follow suit. This price increase, combined with a growing share of HBM sales, will significantly boost Micron’s ASP of DRAM chips in the fourth quarter. Although price trends in the NAND segment have been slightly weaker than expected because customers over-accumulated inventories in the first half of 2024 in anticipation of higher prices. Nevertheless, the overall positive trend in the NAND segment remains intact.
The quarterly report to be released on September 25 is supposed to be strong, with a more optimistic outlook for the quarter and the year. In early August, Micron Technology resumed its share buyback program, indicating management’s confidence in the company’s business performance. Ahead of the report, several investment firms have revised downward their financial forecasts for the company, which reduces the risk of unmet expectations. Contracts with industry leaders, anticipated price increases, and the rising shipments of HBM memory and SSDs for the B2B segment set a positive tone for Micron Technology, whose stock has been heavily oversold in recent months.
Our price target for Micron Technology (MU) over a two-month horizon is $109, with a “Buy” rating. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $78.
MU Micron Technology Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought MU before the breakout:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MU Micron Technology prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 90usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-10-18,
for a premium of approximately $6.50.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.