ORCL34 trade ideas
SHORT ORCLOracle Corporation (ORCL) has recently experienced a decline due to underwhelming earnings and concerns over its valuation.
The stock is currently trading at $183.47. Given the elevated implied volatility in the options market, a short call strategy may be more cost-effective than purchasing puts.
Trade Plan Details
1. Short Call Strategy:
Strike Price: $190 (above current trading price)
Expiration: March 2025
Premium: Collect premium by selling call options at this strike.
2. Position Sizing:
Contracts: Determine the number of contracts based on your risk tolerance and account size.
Risk Management: Ensure the total potential loss does not exceed your predefined risk threshold.
3. Profit Target:
Objective: Profit from the premium received, anticipating that ORCL will stay below the $190 strike price by expiration.
4. Stop Loss:
Exit Strategy: If ORCL's price approaches the strike price, consider closing the position to limit potential losses.
Rationale
Earnings Performance: Oracle's recent earnings report showed revenue of $14.06 billion, slightly below expectations, leading to a stock decline.
Valuation Concerns: Analysts have downgraded Oracle due to overvaluation concerns, suggesting the stock may face further downward pressure.
Implied Volatility: Elevated implied volatility makes selling options, such as short calls, potentially more profitable due to higher premiums.
iPad side side panel in chart mode please!In chart mode, can you please add the side panel so that I can scroll through stocks while the full chart and annotations show on the right panel?
Currently it has a tiny scroll in the bottom left left-hand corner which makes it very difficult to quickly and easily scroll to assess the differences in stock and chart patterns.
This really seems like it would be an amazing upgrade. Thank you.
Oracle’s Next Big Move: $200 and Beyond – Are You Ready? 🔥 1. Strong Analyst Confidence
Evercore ISI: Raised price target to $200, maintaining an Outperform rating.
Cantor Fitzgerald: Initiated an Overweight rating, signaling high confidence in Oracle's growth.
Consensus Target: Analysts' mean price target of $197.07, with a high estimate of $220, highlights significant upside potential.
💰 2. Valuation and Earnings Strength
Current Price: Trading at $161, Oracle is well below its all-time high of $198.31.
Fair Value: Simply Wall Street values Oracle at $261.81, indicating the stock is 39% undervalued.
Earnings Growth: Oracle delivers consistent earnings growth at 16.5%, showcasing its financial resilience and expansion potential.
⚡️ 3. Growth Drivers
Cloud Leadership: Oracle continues to expand in cloud computing, challenging AWS and Microsoft Azure.
AI Integration: Oracle’s investments in AI-powered solutions position it to capitalize on the AI and data revolution.
Global Expansion: Enhanced data center infrastructure worldwide is strengthening Oracle’s market reach and competitiveness.
📈 4. Technical and Price Action
Support: The price is respecting a long-term uptrend support, with a recent bounce confirming the start of a new bullish wave.
Momentum: RSI and Stochastic Oscillator indicate a reversal from oversold conditions, signaling increasing bullish momentum.
Historical Patterns: Previous rallies from the support of 27.93% and 38.20%, suggest Oracle could replicate similar upward moves.
🔹 Price Targets:
🎯 $170 (+5.6%)
🎯 $180 (+11.8%)
🎯 $200 (+24.2%)
💡 Conclusion
Oracle is backed by strong fundamentals, growing cloud and AI capabilities, and bullish technical indicators. With a clear path to $200, the stock offers an excellent opportunity to capture gains at current levels. 🚀
Long ORCL Thesis Watching this 158-160 area on ORCL on the hourly for push back to upper trend line near 180ish.
Oracle Soars on USA AI Deal – Is $238 Next?Good morning, trading family!
Here’s what I’m seeing for Oracle (ORCL) right now:
If it can break above $191, we might see it push up to $199–$200. If it clears that, $230–$238 could be the next big move, especially with all the excitement around its role in the $100B U.S. AI project.
But let’s stay cautious—if it drops, $179 could be the next level to watch, and if that doesn’t hold, $166 might be in play.
If this analysis helped you, drop a comment below! A like, boost, or share would mean the world and help others join the conversation. Let’s crush it this week!
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
Oracle Stock (ORCL) Surges Amid Trump’s InitiativeOracle Stock (ORCL) Surges Amid Trump’s Initiative
Stargate – an initiative unveiled by Donald Trump on his second day as president – represents a collaborative project between OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle to advance artificial intelligence infrastructure in the United States. The project’s partners also include Microsoft, MGX, Arm, and NVIDIA.
The initiative involves an initial $100 billion investment to construct a data centre in Texas, with total funding potentially increasing to $500 billion over four years. Additionally, President Trump has revoked an executive order from his predecessor, Joe Biden, issued in 2023, which aimed to mitigate risks associated with AI development.
Financial markets responded with a rally in tech stocks, with Oracle’s stock (ORCL) gaining over 7% in a single day.
Technical analysis of the ORCL chart shows:
→ Price fluctuations are forming an ascending channel, and yesterday’s rally lifted the price from the lower half of the channel to its median line.
→ The price is approaching a bearish gap created on December 10 following disappointing quarterly results. This gap may act as resistance – similar to the inverse situation earlier in 2025, where the price found support at the upper boundary of a bullish gap formed after the September earnings report.
However, with support from the new administration, bulls might manage to sustain levels above $180, paving the way for a potential climb to a new all-time high around the psychological mark of $200 per ORCL share.
According to TipRanks:
→ 15 out of 27 analysts recommend buying ORCL stock.
→ The average 12-month price target for ORCL is $197.
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What Lies Beyond Stargate's Gates?In a bold move that redefines the intersection of technology and national policy, President Donald Trump has unveiled "Stargate," a colossal project aimed at advancing the United States' capabilities in artificial intelligence. This initiative, backed by tech titans Oracle, OpenAI, and SoftBank, is not merely an investment in infrastructure but a strategic leap towards securing America's future in the global AI race. With commitments reaching up to $500 billion, Stargate is set to transform not only how AI is developed but also how it integrates into the fabric of American society and economy.
The project's immediate impact is palpable; it involves constructing state-of-the-art data centers in Texas, with plans to scale significantly across the nation. This undertaking promises to generate around 100,000 jobs, showcasing the potential of AI to be a major economic driver. Beyond the economic implications, Stargate aims at a broader horizon — fostering innovations in fields like medical research, where AI could revolutionize treatments for diseases like cancer. The involvement of key players like NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Arm underscores a unified push towards not just business efficiency but also societal benefits, challenging us to envision a future where technology and humanity advance hand in hand.
However, the vision of Stargate also brings to mind the complexities of global tech dependencies, especially concerning AI chip manufacturing, which largely relies on foreign production. This initiative invites a deeper contemplation on how national security, economic growth, and technological advancement can be balanced in an era where AI's influence is ubiquitous. As we stand on the brink of this new chapter, Stargate challenges us to think critically about the future we are building — one where AI not only serves our immediate needs but also shapes our long-term destiny.
Stock Of The Day / 01.27.25 / ORCL01.27.2025 / NYSE:ORCL #ORCL
Fundamentals. General decline in the technology sector amid news of cheaper and less resource-demanding Chinese AI.
Technical analysis.
Daily chart: Movement within a wide range of 198 - 152.40. Strong daily level is ahead which is formed by a gap in September 2024 and confirmed in January 2025.
Premarket: Gap Down on increased volume. We mark the premarket low of 166.00.
Trading session: The first attempt to go below the premarket low at the beginning of the session was unsuccessful, but at the same time the price did not update the previous high and continued its gradual decline. We are considering a short trade upon a breakdown of the 166.00 level, then retest and holding of the level from the opposite side.
Trading scenario: #breakdown with retest of level 166.00
Entry: 165.39 after the breakdown and clear holding of the level.
Stop: 166.18 we hide it behind the candlewick of the retest.
Exit: Close the Part of the position around 157.20 when signs of a change from a downward trend to an upward trend appear. Since the lower high has not been updated, we can hold the remaining part of the position until the slowdown before the strong daily level of 152.40
Risk Rewards: 1/15
P.S. In order to understand the idea behind the Stock Of The Day analysis, read the following information .
Bullish bar break, sign of upside returning?NYSE:ORCL Trend has been well respected within the uptrend line since Oct 2022. Despite a larger than expected correction from 9 Dec 24 - 14 Jan 25, the stock managed to reverse higher after the reverse of the tik tok ban. The strong bullish bar break above the falling wedge with strong volume will support the stronger upside continuation.
Key support at 143-152 is well supported. Long-term MACD still shows bearish momentum, but stochastic Oscillator is showing signs of overbought, together with 23 period ROC. Volume and Directional movement index is healthy.
Oracle (ORCL) – Technical Sell Signal: Preparing for a PullbackNYSE:ORCL
Overview:
Oracle (ORCL) is showing a bearish setup after a period of strong upward momentum. At an opening price of $153.74, the stock appears poised for a downward correction. Based on technical signals, we’re projecting a potential target price of $145.27, representing an approximately 5.5% drop.
The combination of the Supertrend indicator and RSI readings across multiple timeframes strongly suggests that Oracle may be entering a retracement phase. These indicators align to suggest that the current trend may soon shift, offering traders an opportunity to sell short.
ORACLE Slowly turning into a long-term Buy again.Oracle (ORCL) gave us an excellent buy signal on our last call (September 18 2024, see chart below):
For the past 30 days it has been on a technical decline, which based on its +2 year pattern, is nothing but the Bearish Leg of the Channel Up. The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is the natural Support of this trend but the September - October 2023 Bearish Leg bottomed a little over the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result we expect the stock to turn into a buy by the end of the month or if the 1W RSI hits its 42.70 Support first and initiate the new Bullish Leg, which at first shouldn't be that aggressive.
Our Target is a little below the -0.236 Fib extension at $220.00.
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Oracle: Correction Started!Although ORCL is currently still trading above the $147.50 support level, we believe the green wave has reached its peak. This implies that the overall upward trend has concluded, and we anticipate a significant correction moving forward. This correction should unfold in five parts, with the beige wave I extending well below the $147.50 level. Afterward, we foresee a corrective counter-movement back above $147.50 during wave II before the price resumes its downward trajectory.
ORCL 6/7/2022ORCL
ORCL entered a Sideways range Sept.’21 after trend was broken. The sideways trend lasted until Jan’22
Jan.’22, price broke down from range. The sideways range was deemed a Distribution stage. A downtrend was to follow.
On the breakdown, price made a low of 72 and we also saw a death cross between 50 and 200 ema. This further confirmed the bearish conditions.
After a pullback to resistance, price made another move down and broke below the low of 72 and made a lower low at 66. The Downtrend has now been confirmed.
Currently, price has pulled back to the previous low of 72. Yesterday’s candlestick closed as a shooting star at this resistance level. This will be my cue to enter trade short.
Entering trade short
Entry: 72.86
Stoploss: 77.07
Target: 61.15, 16.07%, 2.78 RR ratio
$ORCL 126 AFTER EARNINGS NYSE:ORCL 126 AFTER EARNINGS
Strong Quarterly Earnings: Oracle has shown strong financial performance in the recent past, with its stock price soaring after reporting results that beat analysts' expectations and highlighted its position amid the AI boom. This indicates a positive market response to its financial performance, which could lead to a higher stock price in the future.
Increased Price Targets by Analysts: Analysts have increased their price targets for Oracle, with some predicting a potential rise to $126.
These optimistic forecasts suggest that the market and analysts have confidence in the company's future growth and performance.
Positive Market Sentiment: The market's response to Oracle's earnings reports has generally been positive, with the stock price rising after strong earnings reports. This suggests that if Oracle continues to report strong earnings, the market could respond positively, potentially pushing the stock price towards $126.
High Growth Potential: Analysts predict that Oracle's earnings and revenue will grow significantly over the next 3 years. This high growth potential could attract investors and drive up the stock price.
Market Leadership: Oracle is a market leader in cloud computing and database software. Its strong market position and broad scope of offerings could contribute to its continued growth and success, potentially leading to a higher stock price.
Positive Industry Outlook: The cloud computing and database software industries are expected to continue growing, driven by the increasing need for digital solutions and data management. As a leader in these spaces,
Oracle is well-positioned to benefit from this industry growth.
AI-Related Gains: Oracle has been highlighted for its position amid the AI boom, indicating its potential to benefit from the growing demand for AI-related services and solutions.
ORCL: maybe a distribution structure hereORCL: maybe a distribution structure here
-An early Head n Shoulder pattern is forming.
-Key level support at 173 and resistence at 183.
-Supply zone at 183, and we are waiting a short Put here target to 173 again.
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More plans at US STOCKS- WALL STREET DREAM
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Oracle (Extended Hours) | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# Oracle (Extended Hours)
- Double Formation
* Neckline At 145.00 USD | Retracement Entry | Subdivision 1
* 167.80 USD | Survey Valid | Bias On Hold
- Triple Formation
* Triangle | Retracement Area | Uptrend & Behaviour | Subdivision 2
* Flat ABC Correction | Conditions Valid
* Daily Time Frame | Trend Survey Valid | Subdivision 3
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
Oracle’s Cloud Conquest|Climbing Mount Hyperscaler with AI BootsWill Oracle Cloud Infrastructure aka OCI Emerge as the 4th Hyperscaler?
Although OCI hasn’t yet reached the scale of the top three cloud giants (AWS, Azure, GCP), it’s rapidly advancing, much like d’Artagnan joining the musketeers. Riding the AI wave, Oracle’s Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) segment surged by 52% to $2.4 billion in Q2. Over the past year, OCI has overtaken Salesforce and IBM, surpassing even Snowflake. Its next target, Alibaba Cloud, grew just 7% YoY to $4.2 billion in Q3. However, this impressive growth comes at a price—Oracle’s capital expenditure is expected to double in FY25 to meet AI demand.
Oracle Q2 FY25 Highlights
Key Metrics
-Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO): A measure of future revenue from existing contracts. RPO grew 50% YoY, with Cloud RPO jumping nearly 80%, reflecting strong momentum. Sequentially, total RPO declined slightly from $99 billion in Q1 to $97 billion in Q2. 39% of this is expected to convert into revenue over the next year.
-Cloud Services Revenue: Up 24% YoY to $5.9 billion:
-IaaS: Grew 52% YoY to $2.4 billion, up from 45% in Q1, driven by OCI adoption for high-performance workloads and multi-cloud deployments.
-SaaS: Increased 10% YoY to $3.5 billion, with stable demand for cloud-based ERP, HCM, and CRM solutions.
- Fusion Cloud ERP: Gained 18% YoY to $0.9 billion.
-NetSuite Cloud ERP: Rose 19% YoY to $0.9 billion.
- Total Revenue: Increased 9% YoY to $14.1 billion, missing estimates by $20 million.
-Cloud Services & License Support: Up 12% YoY to $10.8 billion, with cloud services alone growing 24% YoY to $5.9 billion.
-Cloud License & On-Premise: Up 1% YoY to $1.2 billion.
-Hardware: Declined 4% YoY to $0.7 billion.
-Services: Dropped 3% YoY to $1.3 billion.
-Margins: Gross margin held steady at 71%, while operating margin improved 2 percentage points to 30%.
-Non-GAAP EPS:$1.47, missing estimates by $0.01
Cash Flow & Balance Sheet
-Operating Cash Flow (TTM):** $20.3 billion (+19% YoY).
- Cash & Cash Equivalents:** $11.3 billion.
-Debt: $88.6 billion.
Q3 FY25 Guidance
- Revenue growth of 7%-9% YoY (10% expected).
- Cloud revenue projected to grow 25%-27% YoY, accelerating further.
Analysis and Insights
1.Momentum in Cloud Infrastructure
Oracle’s focus on AI workloads is paying off, with major clients like Meta, Uber, and TikTok driving GPU consumption up by 336%. The company also unveiled the largest AI supercomputer, featuring 65,000 NVIDIA H200 GPUs. However, a potential TikTok ban in the U.S. could pose a $2 billion revenue risk.
2.Growth Despite Missed Targets
While revenue and adjusted earnings missed estimates due to slower SaaS growth, cloud revenue of $5.9 billion was just shy of the $6 billion forecast. Shares dipped post-earnings but remain up nearly 70% year-to-date, exceeding most investors' expectations
3.Capex Surge for AI
Capital expenditures reached $4 billion this quarter, a sharp increase from under $7 billion in FY24. Management expects FY25 Capex to double, driven by AI demand, resulting in negative free cash flow ($2.7 billion used) for the quarter. These investments align with industry trends but may stretch the balance sheet.
4.Expanding Multi Cloud Partnerships
Oracle’s partnerships with Meta, AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud enhance its relevance in multi-cloud environments. These alliances enable seamless workload interoperability and help Oracle compete effectively while broadening its customer base.
5.Balance Sheet Challenges
Oracle’s net debt of $80 billion, despite robust $20 billion annual operating cash flow, restricts its ability to pursue aggressive growth strategies or acquisitions. Rising Capex could further limit flexibility.
6.Bullish Long-Term Outlook
Management projects total cloud revenue to exceed $25 billion in FY25, fueled by AI demand and OCI’s competitive positioning. Analysts remain optimistic about Oracle’s prospects, particularly in multi-cloud ecosystems and generative AI workloads.
This explains why Larry Ellison envisions Oracle’s data centers expanding tenfold
Double Keltner BandsI have added a 2nd Keltner to the standard TV Keltner Bands indicator. This allows for several different combinations available to the user -
1. Can use same moving avg length for both, with different multipliers, thus having an "outer" and "inner" set of bands.
2. Can use different moving avg lengths with same/different multipliers, providing some possible occurrences where both sets of bands come together, or one exceeds the other at key turning points, etc.
3. Can show just one set of bands, but have 2 different mov avgs shown (for crossings, for example, a 10prd and 20prd).
4. Can just use the 2 different mov avgs, no bands shown.
These are just a few ideas. The avgs can be either exponential or simple, or can combine one of each. There's room for creativity as to how they are used.
Hope you find these of value in some way.
ORCLE IS BULLISH DEC 10 2024I could not post the chart here but I did it on x. This is bullish . Entry was shared & done yesterday post market after ER i.e 9th Dec 2024 post market
Entry 172.5
Sl 165
Target should be back to 190 min
Oracle: The Growing Cloud and Increased CompetitionRecent Financial Results
Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) reported quarterly revenue of $14.06 billion, representing 9% year-over-year growth. However, these results were slightly below Wall Street expectations, which projected $14.11 billion. The company also registered a pullback in the market, losing more than $45 billion in market capitalization following the report. This performance, while positive in absolute terms, raised doubts among analysts about the company's ability to maintain sustained revenue and earnings per share (EPS) growth.
Competition in the cloud sector
Oracle faces fierce competition from established giants such as Microsoft, Amazon and Google in the cloud services market. Although its cloud infrastructure segment grew 54% in the last fiscal quarter, it remains an emerging player compared to the industry leaders. Differences in scalability, pricing and innovativeness have forced Oracle to invest significantly in infrastructure and enter into strategic alliances such as its integration with Amazon Web Services (AWS).
Cloud benchmarking and outlook
The cloud sector represents a key growth area for Oracle, especially given the growing demand for artificial intelligence (AI). Analysts have highlighted that its ability to leverage multi-cloud infrastructure and attract customers to its cloud computing offering will be an important differentiator. Despite this, its P/E ratio of 46.61x, higher than many of its competitors, suggests that the stock is already valued to the upside, putting pressure on future performance.
Conclusion
Oracle continues to show solid growth, but faces challenges from high competition in the cloud. Its success will depend on maintaining innovation, expanding its infrastructure and meeting financial targets in an environment that demands operational excellence.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
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All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Oracle May Be OversoldOracle has been making new highs since the summer, and some trend followers may see opportunity in its latest pullback.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the October high of $178.61. ORCL ripped above that level after the election, followed by a slide in the last week. It probed near the old high on Tuesday before bouncing. The results were a hammer candlestick, plus a new and higher low above the old high. Both of those are potentially bullish.
Next, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has remained above the 21-day EMA. That may reflect the presence of an uptrend.
Third, stochastics have hit an oversold condition.
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