SALESFORCE - BEARISHS CENARIOSalesforce's second-quarter results topped Wall Street expectations, but the downtrend is more likely to continue due to the worsening of the business outlook.
inflation and slowing U.S. growth are some of the main reasons for the company cut its revenue forecast
The next price target is located at the $ 150 support level.
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SSFO34 trade ideas
Salesforce – Is it to Fall Even Further?Fundamental Indicators:
Sector – Technology
US Business Cycle Stage – late cycle, when this sector is not favourable
Revenue – consistent growth for the past 10 years, 26% annual growth 5-year average
Profits – significant drop from 2021
Net margin – quite low with 3.59% for tech company
P/E – extremely high at 188 compared to S&P500 with 21 and Technology sector 27
Liabilities - debt ratio is at 0.37 which is within normal limits, Net Debt/ EBITDA is negative – no problems with debt
Conclusion – great financial performance for the past 10 years but given the extremely high PE ratio and the current global economic situation it is grossly overpriced, so it is very likely to continue correcting
Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves):
Main scenario of this idea suggests that we are still observing development of the global growth cycle which is currently at the stage of completing the first leg of corrective wave 4 (see higher timeframe graph)
Since the correction of March 2020, the stock price considerably updated historic highs but slightly choppy with a challenging EW count, in this case an Ending Diagonal has been chosen as wave 5 (see guidelines for Ending Diagonals below)
From the high of October 2021 there has been a sharp fall in a clear impulsive move of wave A, followed by a sideway correction in wave B
The next move in wave C is expected to reach $115-$122 and this will finalise the first leg of the global corrective wave 4
This is a higher timeframe to reflect the full history of Salesforce and to provide full wave count:
This is the link to the guidelines for Ending Diagonals
What do you think about Salesforce and its short term prospects?
Also let me know if you would like to see other stocks, indices, Forex or Crypto analysed using Elliott Waves.
Thanks
Salesforce at resistance?Salesforce
Short Term
We look to Sell at 190.76 (stop at 198.93)
The medium term bias remains bearish. Bespoke resistance is located at 191.00. Trading within a Bearish Channel formation. We look for losses to be extended today.
Our profit targets will be 169.86 and 158.00
Resistance: 191.00 / 224.00 / 260.00
Support: 168.00 / 140.00 / 115.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
Falling Wedge- Bullish- Keeping a close eye on CRM here as its finally starting to break out of this falling wedge it's been holding for quite some time now. Big increase in buyer volume relative to seller volume as shown on the RSI with some slight bullish divergence on the daily timeframe, and some more bullish divergence on the weekly timeframe (See Attached Chart Below).
- CRM closed out the week reclaiming its 20-Day SMA while also testing the upper trend line on the falling wedge it's been holding. On top of all that, CRM's EMAs are starting to curl upwards, with multiple gaps to fill on the upside heading into earnings, all signs pointing towards a breakout.
- Bullish and will be looking for a breakout from this wedge (Broader Market Conditions Permitting)- Just some support and resistance levels to watch along with some RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the meantime
--Weekly chart & Price Targets Attached Below--
PT1- $192.54
PT2- $196.23
PT3- $202.72
PT4- $205.18 +
--Weekly Timeframe--
Bottoming Patterns with Rising LowsThis bottoming pattern shows retests of the lows and how, over time, the lows of the retests start to rise. This tends to be a footprint of Dark Pools quietly accumulating over time.
CRM has recently added Artificial Intelligence to its software to promote and sell more of its customer management software solutions to mid-sized businesses.
CRM - Bullish Divergence on MonthlyCRM hit a low of 154 in late May, a 78.6% fibonacci retracement of it's major AB swing up.
It then traded sideways in the past 2 months, forming a symmetrical triangle.
With bullish divergence seen on it's monthly chart, it looks like the odds of a breakup is likely and when this happens, it is probably a good time to ride the trend.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
CRM - are you catching a falling knife ?It is really more of luck than skills to pick the bottom for any stock ! The price action has shown us that the 3 red candles that could not break above the resistance level at 193 means selling is still strong........
It is likely to revisit support level 1 at 158.96. Here, we might see some rebound but it has to break above 193.85 to sustain the rally else it is going to fall further south towards 125.61 support level.
So, for those keen to long this stock, you can buy in tranches at support level 1 and more at support level 2 rather than go all in at this juncture.
CRM Gap Filled The market has been having a brutal past few days so this trade carries a bit more risk but the alert fired today for a buy so going to stick with my system.
After posting a really solid ER a few weeks back CRM gapped up. I'm long term bullish on software that provides core services to businesses. I think even with a recession it's going to be tough for business to be able to pivot away from services that are tightly integrated into their workflow.
CRM Guru Focus Stats:
GF Score 88/100
GF Value Rank 8/10
GF Value: 269.82 Significantly Undervalued
CRM hasn't popped up on my screener just yet so I'm cautious on this buy and don't plan on making this a large holding. I purchased 2 shares with the intent of selling one if we receive a bounce on the gap fill. It's also come down nicely to a .618 fib from the most recent low to high.
Current Positions:
1 SPY 398.16 CB
2 CRM 167.78 CB
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May the force (sales) be with youSaleforce
Short Term - We look to Buy a break of 192.11 (stop at 179.00)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. This stock has recently been in the news headlines. A bullish reverse Head and Shoulders is forming. A break of yesterdays high would confirm bullish momentum. We look for gains to be extended today.
Our profit targets will be 232.75 and 240.00
Resistance: 190 / 224.00 / 260.00
Support: 168.00 / 140.00 / 115.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
$CRM - long to 192 ish areaIf drops below Level 173.33 then open with stop at 173.43 - target 192.30
Enter at 181.51, set stop to 179.86 and target is $192.30
Once we hold 192.30 area, target is 204.49
Keep in mind the gap to fill between 166.13 and 173.33
This is very short term trading... scalping or swing
CRM False Breakout. Incoming Retest of Recent Lows. CRM's breakout of its medium term downward channel looks pretty weak. Volume is slowing, while weekly and monthly timeframes are signaling strong negative momentum. The trend for CRM (at least in the intermediate term) is downward. I'm calling for a move down to the recent low of 154.60. Most likely there will be lower lows formed after this retest for CRM but we will have to wait and see.
This is not trading advice. Good luck!
CRM: Its not all doom and gloom!!Saleforce
Short Term - We look to Buy at 168.45 (stop at 151.44)
They reported earnings with forecasted earnings rising despite strong dollar headwinds. This led to a jump in premarket and could provide impetus for further rise up. There is scope for mild selling at the opening but loses should be limited. Our outlook is bullish. Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 222.00 and 240.00
Resistance: 185.75 / 224.00 / 260.00
Support: 168.00 / 140.00 / 115.00
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