TESLA Tesla stock drops owing to Elon political involvement in united states politics, and the rise of china EV market with BYD AND HUAWEI LEADING BACKED BY CHINESE GOVERMENT .
the on going tariff will crush tesla market shares and revenue.
TSLA34 trade ideas
Tesla shows downtrend As shown in the chart, there is a well-known pattern called Head and Shoulders. The black trendline represents the monthly data.
Pre market blows past TSLA supportPre market at 250 right now is just about pas support line, a Continuation of short til 220 at least is fully plausible. Just. bc its friday i wouldnt want to hold short til monday pre with how volatile the market movement is then. so be careful and prepared for a daily short position at least after seeing marker reaction and price movement confirmation. NASDAQ:TSLA
TSLA still bearish like I said. Why you should sue the board.This chart uses an unpublished modified turtle trader indicator / strategy combined with the unpublished TVMV framework using MFT candle sticks (published as separate indicator) and Bollinger bands. The max monthly position size is determined by seasonal probabilities, while the individual trade position sizes are determined by the turtle style volatility sizing based off the former's capital.
Nothing has changed about TSLA.
It has a work from home CEO who is who disconnected from reality and accountability that the stock will not recover. No amount of government contracts can over come the damage this man has done to the brand.
Sales and deliveries are down in every market and the car owners are afraid to drive their cars.
This recent pump had no basis. It lacked both fundamental value and technical value.
TSLA will break below 222 and may go as far as 109 by EOY if the board of directors does not fulfill their fiduciary obligations to share holder to remove Musk permanently .
Shareholders should seriously consider filing a class action law suit against the board of directors in collaboration with NY .
Here's Why I'm Bullish on TSLA: Smart Money is Buying...Here's Why I'm Bullish on NASDAQ:TSLA Multi-Timeframe Analysis Using Larry Williams' Methods
After a significant downtrend, NASDAQ:TSLA is presenting multiple bullish signals based on Larry Williams' methodology. The weekly and daily timeframes are aligning for a potential reversal opportunity with clearly defined risk parameters.
Weekly Timeframe Analysis
The weekly chart reveals several key bullish indicators:
- The COT Proxy Index shows commercials are buying at significantly higher levels compared to 6 months ago, 1 year ago, and 3 years ago.
- Seasonality patterns have reached a turning point, now indicating the beginning of an uptrend phase
- The WillVal indicator shows NASDAQ:TSLA is currently undervalued at multiple securities (DXY, QCCH, ZBLU all showing "Under")
- ADX reading above 60 (currently at 62.42) signals the existing downtrend is likely exhausting and nearing completion
Daily Timeframe Analysis
On the daily chart, we're seeing initial confirmation signals but still waiting for the optimal entry setup:
- The general market has created a Rally Day, and we're now watching for a Follow Through Day to confirm the new uptrend
- Price structure requires further confirmation through a change of character before entry
- The ProGo indicator has already turned positive, providing an early bullish signal
- Williams %R is showing oversold conditions, suggesting a potential bounce
- We need the Large Traders index to turn its slope upward for additional confirmation
Entry Strategy
I'm looking for one of these entry triggers:
- Primary : First pullback after change of character , using Williams %R for precise timing
- Alternative : Entry on first pullback after price moves above the WillTrend line
- Aggressive option : Entry if price breaks above the $245 resistance level
Profit Targets & Risk Management
Targets:
- First target: $327 (1.27 Fibonacci level)
- Second target: $390 (Larry Williams Target Shooter -> 2.00 Fibonacci level )
Risk Management:
- Initial stop loss: $228 or 120% of ATR(3) from entry point
- Once in profit, trailing stop based on price closes at WillTrend levels
The confluence of indicators across timeframes suggests a significant reversal potential in NASDAQ:TSLA , but waiting for daily chart confirmation will provide a higher probability setup with clearly defined risk parameters.
DISCLAIMER
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. The ideas and strategies presented should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation. This content is not financial advice and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or to engage in any specific investment strategy. All investment carries risk, including the possibility of losing some or all of your initial investment. Past performance of securities, including the patterns, signals, and indicators discussed, is not indicative of future results. The author does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information presented. Each investor should conduct their own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions. Trading Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) stock involves significant risks that may not be appropriate for all investors. You should only invest funds that you can afford to lose.
$TSLA RETEST $250 TO CONFIRMThe NASDAQ:TSLA experienced a rapid surge without any accompanying news.
It's expected to retest the $250 level, after which a further evaluation will be necessary to determine its next move.
SELL NOW AND BUY LATER
TSLA - A false start? UPDATE : Tesla is unfortunately not starting on the right foot. The price action since the low is NOT impulsive to use an Elliot Wave term. So this is very unlikely to be the low. I will be selling my $265 calls near $255 price levels. And then patiently wait to see if we drift down for the true wave 5 down to $187. Additionally, the Murrey Frame 1/8ths line is also down there, as well a the Red dashed P line from the last break out. So..... if this take is wrong, and we manage to leave the channel gate move above $260 I will update. Until then its prayers to offload these longs profitably, and reset lower. Comments always welcome. And remember, trading is hard work, Sometimes we fish for a long time to catch the tastiest fish in the sea. Bona Fortuna!
Which levels will break this month for $TSLA ?They say Buy the DIP. Which one ?
I like to SELL PUTS lower and let the market decide.
Start 30 days out and go out 90 days.
Buy small and load up 50% to 75% lower.
If you like the company then you want to buy when everyone hates it.
I still think Tesla is growing.
closer to 200 than you may think otherwiseOverbought on many indicators, catalyst with mixed reviews, fundamentals are still strong, projections are still a gray area. But given the recent momentum, the precedence of better forecasts and the distraction, it could become a short-term drag through the mud.
TSLA what's wrong? no supercharger in sight? 2 things i need to say
Technicals
- TSLA has a Elliot wave in motion, so far it respected the sequence,
1H - divergence (But no resistance in sight) - caution
if if settles below 270 , then we might see 221 or even lower?
Fundamentals
I'm not even going to mention the popularity loss of TSLA since Elon meddled into politics, but the recent Auto tariffs President Trump imposed? - well... TLSA makes cars, needs auto parts, ... you get the point
Remember to take the risks into consideration and always do your own analysis before taking a decision !!
I'm still new to sharing ideas on the community - don't start throwing rocks now :D
-Not financial Advice !
Tisk Tisk TSLAShort thoughts on a neutral area. TSLA broke out of what appears to be bear flag to me. I also see an inverse cup & handle. We may attempt to retest and/or regain the channel. If we fail, 225-220 is my target. Demand zone marked. More journal notes this week to stay focused on the trade(s).
Bear Flag:
www.bapital.com
Cup & Handle:
www.investopedia.com
Inverse Cup & Handle ( from our very own Trading View):
youtu.be
TSLA - Melt up & Crash series [3]Nothing changed. Top rail is speculative but represents pattern time I expect to form. Most probably will reach 1.618 fib extension.
Future tsla low = mega buy imo
Not financial advice.
Go Long on TSLA: Targeting a Bullish Rebound Next Week
- Key Insights: Tesla's stock is presently experiencing heightened volatility,
influenced by delivery figures, significant corporate updates, and economic
conditions. The anticipation around Tesla's delivery report and advancements
in AI and autonomous vehicles suggests possible bullish movements if current
trends hold.
- Price Targets: Next week’s price target ranges for a long position are set
between $274 (T1) and $282 (T2). Stop levels are strategically placed below
current market sentiment impacts, with S1 at $252 and S2 at $250 to manage
downside risks.
- Recent Performance: Tesla's recent market activity reflects significant
fluctuations tied to delivery data and broader tech sector challenges. The
stock's price has hovered around key resistance and support levels,
indicating potential readiness for an upward movement should positive
catalysts emerge.
- Expert Analysis: Influential figures like Cathie Wood maintain a positive
outlook on Tesla, driven by the company's AI advancements and potential in
the autonomous vehicle sector. Analysts have pointed out that Tesla's
exposure to international tariffs is relatively moderate compared to its
competitors, possibly positioning it advantageously within the automotive
market.
- News Impact: Key upcoming reports, particularly Tesla's delivery announcement
on April 2nd, could dramatically affect stock perception and investor
sentiment. Advancements in AI, particularly the potential launch of Robo
taxis, are seen as game-changers for Tesla's market valuation. Meanwhile,
operational and regulatory challenges remain, including the uncertain impact
of geopolitical moves such as tariff implementations.
TSLA theoryWe are ina bear market this year, But I'm optimistic long term.
This is a gem to accumulate, dca when is sideways.
LONGTesla reached +487 points from the primary low, we made several publications about this level and what lies above and below it, the significance of this level and when they show up on time and price schedules.
Below are some shots of this monster level
We would take a tight long entries with targets at 385 price level.
Manage risk responsibly
$TSLA - Just watch for nowNASDAQ:TSLA is currently sitting on a support level. If it fails, it could revisit a recent low around the $210 area. The range from $260 to $210 is a demand zone.
In a bullish case, it breaks out of that channel and travels to the $330 area.
In a bearish case, it could retest the trendline around the $180 area.
Tesla Stock Continues to Trade Within a Bearish ChannelThe monthly movements of Tesla's stock continue to reflect persistent downward pressure, with a decline of just over 10% since the beginning of March, showing steady selling interest. The bearish sentiment has remained in place as growing discontent over Elon Musk's political positioning has damaged the brand's image, while concerns over a potential trade war have raised fears that Tesla’s international sales may be negatively affected.
Bearish Channel:
Currently, the most important formation on the chart is a strong bearish channel that has remained intact since the final days of December 2024. So far, recent bullish attempts have failed to break out of this structure, reinforcing the broader bearish bias in the long-term outlook.
MACD Indicator:
The latest movements in the MACD histogram have started to show a notable decline, indicating that momentum in the moving average trend may be fading in the short term. This is likely due to the price reaching the upper boundary of the bearish channel, where resistance remains strong.
ADX Indicator:
The ADX line is currently trending downward, hovering just above the neutral 20 level. As this pattern continues, it reflects a lack of strength in recent price movements, pointing to growing indecision, which in turn reinforces the current resistance zone where the price is consolidating.
Key Levels to Watch:
$290: A significant resistance zone, aligning with the top of the bearish channel and the 200-period moving average. Sustained buying above this level could threaten the current bearish structure and signal the start of stronger bullish pressure.
$220: A key support level, representing the recent lows in the stock. A clean break below this zone could confirm a stronger bearish trend, opening the door for more aggressive selling in the sessions ahead.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
My version of the Relative Strength IndicatorI wanted to build something less choppy and more actionable, so there you go.
Tesla Financials: Q1 2025The market is currently staging a short-term rally - essentially a speculative mean reversion bounce as a reaction to -55% crash from all-time high. This move appears driven largely by retail traders seizing what it perceives as a rare opportunity to accumulate an oversold "large-caps".
While retail participation and opportunistic capital are supporting the current bounce, this alone is insufficient to sustain a full recovery. As the price approaches higher levels, particularly near key supply zones, it will likely encounter significant resistance, resulting in reversal.
Let's not forget the fact that figures in Tesla’s Q4 '24 financial report initiated bearish sentiment among institutional investors which resulted in market crash. Similarly, the upcoming Q1 earnings report presents a clear downside risk, as the significant events throughout this quarter will inevitably be reflected in the financial figures!
Anticipated impact of significant developments on Tesla’s Q1 2025 Financial Statements
🛑 Revenue Decline
• U.S. Market Weakness: Lower-than-anticipated vehicle sales in the U.S. directly reduce automotive revenue.
• Severe European Slump: A significant 76% sales decline in Germany and weakness elsewhere in Europe will notably reduce international revenues.
• Chinese Market Challenges: A substantial 49% sales drop in China will negatively affect one of Tesla’s crucial growth markets.
• Cybertruck Weakness and Recalls: Reduced demand and multiple recalls of Cybertruck models further erode revenue growth.
• Resale Value Decline and Trade-Ins: Increased vehicle trade-ins indicate lower demand, causing inventory buildup, discounting pressures, and further sales reductions.
🛑 Gross Margin Erosion
• Price Reductions and Sales Incentives: Competitive pressures and lower demand likely forced Tesla to reduce vehicle prices and offer incentives, compressing gross margins.
• Increased Competition from BYD: BYD’s advanced battery technology (providing 400 km of range in just 5 minutes of charging) pressures Tesla to increase R&D spending or cut prices further, negatively affecting margins.
• Production Challenges (Supply Chain and Battery Issues): Ongoing global supply chain disruptions and difficulties scaling battery production significantly increase manufacturing costs, further squeezing gross margins.
🛑 Increased Operating Expenses
• Recall Costs and Legal Expenses: Vehicle recalls, along with lawsuits related to product issues such as phantom braking, will significantly increase warranty provisions, legal fees, and related operating expenses.
• Protests and Vandalism Costs: Public backlash and vandalism necessitate additional expenditures on security, facility repairs, and public relations initiatives.
• Employee Turnover Costs: Departures of key personnel result in increased recruiting, training, onboarding, and severance expenses.
🛑 Net Income and EPS Impact
• Analyst Earnings Downgrades: Already-reduced EPS projections by major analysts suggest Tesla will likely report earnings below expectations, reflecting revenue shortfalls and elevated expenses.
• $1.4 Billion Financial Discrepancy: If confirmed or unresolved, this discrepancy could lead to substantial asset impairments, restatements, or write-downs, negatively impacting net income and earnings per share (EPS).
🛑 Cash Flow and Liquidity Pressures
• Lower Operating Cash Flows: Reduced revenue coupled with rising operating costs (including recalls, lawsuits, security, and PR spending) severely diminish cash generated from business operations.
• Increased Capital Expenditures: Additional CapEx is likely required to address battery production bottlenecks and delays in autonomous driving technology development, resulting in elevated investing cash outflows.
• Investor Divestment and Stock Volatility: Negative investor sentiment could lead to costly equity financing conditions if Tesla needs to raise capital, adversely affecting financing cash flows and liquidity.
🛑 Balance Sheet Risks
• Rising Inventory Levels: Weak sales combined with continued vehicle production may lead to increased inventory levels, reducing cash and potentially requiring markdowns or provisions.
• Debt and Liquidity Challenges: Deteriorating credit metrics or covenant breaches could make refinancing existing debt more expensive or complicated, negatively impacting Tesla’s financial stability.
TSLA at a Decision Point! Will This Support Break or Bounce?⚡Market Structure & Price Action:
TSLA has shown a breakdown from its recent consolidation following a Break of Structure (BOS) and two Change of Character (CHoCH) signals. Price is now compressing downward in a falling wedge toward a key support zone around $260, suggesting a potential reversal or continuation setup.
* Bearish order block from the $290–$300 zone remains unchallenged.
* Current price action is hovering right at a support level with small-bodied candles, indicating indecision.
GEX & Options Flow Insights:
* IVR: 37.8
* IVx avg: 22.6
* Put Positioning: 71% (very defensive positioning by institutions)
* GEX: 🔴🔴🔴 (Strong bearish gamma exposure)
🧨 Highest negative GEX zone and Put support are stacking around $554–$550, acting as a gamma magnet and potential short-term floor if selling pressure accelerates.
Key Levels to Watch:
* Support Zones:
* $260.01 (current bid zone)
* $249.89
* $230 (lower wedge support)
* Resistance Zones:
* $275 (gap fill resistance)
* $291.83 (strong supply + BOS origin)
* $304.50 (major swing resistance)
Indicator Insights:
* MACD: Bullish crossover forming but lacking strong momentum
* Stoch RSI: Oversold territory, curling upward, hinting a potential short-term bounce
* Volume: Increasing on red candles, showing heavy sell pressure dominance recently
Scenarios:
🔼 Bullish Play:
* Entry: Above $264.50
* Target 1: $275
* Target 2: $291
* Stop-loss: Below $255
Confirmation needed via bullish CHoCH and break above descending wedge.
🔽 Bearish Play:
* Entry: Below $258 breakdown of wedge
* Target 1: $249
* Target 2: $230
* Stop-loss: Above $267
Watch for continuation if macro weakness persists and options flow remains bearish.
GEX Outlook Summary:
TSLA is entering a low-liquidity pocket with strong bearish gamma exposure. High IVR and heavy put concentration suggest institutional hedging, increasing the chance of a further breakdown unless buyers show up at key reversal zones.
Conclusion:
TSLA is at a make-or-break zone. If bulls can reclaim $265+, we may see a relief bounce. However, bearish options pressure and gamma positioning suggest the path of least resistance could still be down, especially toward $250.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk wisely.
Tesla Wins?emotional trading is exhausted, the legislative framework against terrorism is prepared, it's time to get back into action. Minimum up to 380, but since there was a breakthrough earlier, I would recommend selling 50% at 385, and leaving the rest with a stop at breakeven, and without an obvious closure at the top
Weekly Bull FlagTesla have been in in downtrend for sometime it currently maybe started its 5th wave up if it successful breakout from this flag you can expect 280-320 in the coming weeks
