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TSLA34 trade ideas

TSLA: An alternate (bullish) viewMy primary count on TSLA is still bearish. On my primary view, this move is supposed to be wave Y of Primary wave 4. If that is still in progress, then the current consolidation is only wave b of Y and TSLA should fall back more towards the lows of $100 area. But we cannot ignore the other side altogether. In this alternative view, Primary wave 4 was complete back in Jan 2023 and since then TSLA has been making a gigantic ending diagonal wave5 to complete the cycle wave 3. If that is the case, then we should see some kind of a bottoming pattern to complete wave Y intermediate wave 4 and resume wave 5 upward. So, how can we prepare for whichever direction things play out? If price to follow the bearish count, price would break below the $214 low and continue on a strong 5 waves C down to complete the correction. If price to take the bullish route, should not create any lower low from $222.79 and ultimately break above $291.85.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by mukit1
TSLA GEX & Price Action Outlook – April 23🧠 GEX Sentiment (Options Flow Insight):
TSLA is showing bullish options sentiment, with the HVL (high-volume level) pinned at 240, acting as short-term support. GEX shows strong call resistance at 260–265, with the highest positive NET GEX wall just below that zone. We also have significant put walls stacked down at 220 and 225, forming a clear risk floor. * GEX Status: Triple Green ✅✅✅ * IVR: 58.9 * IVx Avg: 106.6 * Flow Bias: CALLS 26.5% — moderately bullish
The options oscillator is still trending upward, giving bulls the upper hand — but not an aggressive breakout just yet. 📊 Price Action & Trade Setup (1H + SMC Analysis):
TSLA just fired an explosive bullish move from the 220s, reclaiming 240 and running up toward 250 into resistance. However, the SMC dashboard suggests “No Trade Suggested” yet. Why? * The price is now entering a premium zone, where R/R becomes unfavorable * We have no CHoCH/BOS trigger from this zone yet * EMA9 and EMA21 have not confirmed a full retest yet * Strength Meter is bullish but not at full momentum What to Watch: * If price can hold above 249–250 and break through 252 with volume → 260+ is possible * If price stalls or rejects around 252, a pullback to 240–241 could be a high-RR dip entry * EMA9 and EMA21 are critical — volume reactions there will set up the next clean move * If volume fades below 240 → be cautious of a rollover into 225–230 demand zone 📌 Summary / Thoughts:
TSLA bulls are reclaiming territory fast — but the move is reactionary and volume-driven. For now, I’m waiting for a confirmation BOS/CHoCH in this premium area before committing. Risk is elevated at these levels. I’d prefer a pullback into the 240 zone with EMA confirmation for a cleaner long setup. If we break and hold above 252, targets toward 260–265 open up fast.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by BullBearInsights
TSLA Elliott wave Analysis 20/4/2025For me, I think that TSLA have already End the Cycle (count from the first day TSLA is IPO).As you can see there is a clear divergence at the wave 5 of the A wave,suggesting that A wave of the corrective wave should be end and ready for the huge B wave that might take a lot of time (Since it is the B wave of the massive wave 2).But there is a change that the wave A that is coming down might be the part of WXY pattern or others pattern so we have to keep an eye on.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by jirapattinn
TSLA Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-04-17TSLA Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-04-17) Below is an integrated analysis of the reports and market data: ────────────────────────────── MODEL REPORTS – KEY POINTS • Grok/xAI  – Price and moving averages on both 5‑min and daily charts are below key EMAs; RSI and MACD point to current bearish momentum.  – Notable technical support at about 239.75 with resistance above near 242.  – The options chain shows heavy put activity at the $240 strike (premium about 0.67), and max pain is at 245, although that level is less relevant for a near‐term (0DTE) trade.  – Recommendation: Trade the TSLA $240 PUT at an ask of 0.67 at the open, aiming for roughly a 100% gain and using about a 50% loss as a stop. • Gemini/Google  – Technicals on short‐term and daily timeframes are mixed: the daily chart is clearly bearish while some 5‑min indicators hint at stabilization.  – Conflicting signals (including the max pain pull toward 245 and falling VIX) result in not having a high‑conviction directional bias.  – Conclusion: “No trade” is recommended today because the conflicting indicators raise the risk of getting whipsawed. • Claude/Anthropic  – Technical analysis on both 5‑min and daily confirms a moderately bearish bias (price well below major EMAs, RSI below 50).  – However, one suggested trade was a TSLA $237.50 PUT at an extremely low premium (0.13) which seems less attractive given the preferred premium range.  – In essence, the model sees downside potential but selected a strike a bit further out from the current price. • Llama/Meta  – A moderately bearish setup is noted, with the technical picture similar to the others on very short‐term charts.  – However, the model also flags the influence of max pain at 245 and concludes that a naked call (for example, at the $240 or $242.50 strike) could profit if the upward “max pain pull” works in play.  – Ultimately, this view contrasts with the put trades favored by others. • DeepSeek  – Confirms the overall technical picture: price is below key averages, with bearish momentum evident on both 5‑min and daily charts.  – Emphasizes the high open interest on $240 puts and the near-term support at 239.75.  – Recommends buying the TSLA $240 PUT at its 0.67 ask price for this weekly (0DTE) option. ────────────────────────────── 2. AREAS OF AGREEMENT AND DISAGREEMENT Agreements:  – Most reports note that TSLA is trading in a moderately bearish state with price below the relevant moving averages and key support levels near 239.75.  – There is broad recognition that options activity is concentrated around the $240 strike—especially on the put side, where volume and open interest are very high, underscoring bearish positioning.  – Technical indicators (RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands) on short‑term and daily charts lean toward bearishness despite some very short‑term signals of stabilization. Disagreements:  – Gemini/Google sees too many conflicting signals (including the upward pull implied by max pain) and hence recommends no trade, while the majority of the other analysts view the setup as tradeable.  – Llama/Meta is open to trading a naked call (capitalizing on the max pain influence) whereas Grok/xAI, DeepSeek, and to a lesser degree Claude/Anthropic advocate for a bearish put trade instead.    ────────────────────────────── 3. CONCLUSION & TRADE RECOMMENDATION Overall Market Direction Consensus:  Most opinions point to a moderately bearish bias for TSLA on a near-term, 0DTE weekly horizon. Even though conflicting signals (like max pain toward 245 and some stabilization on very short timeframes) introduce uncertainty, the weight of the technicals and put side open interest lean toward downside pressure. Recommended Trade:  Trade a single‑leg, naked PUT (weekly option) on TSLA. Trade Parameters:  – Instrument: TSLA  – Strategy: Buy a TSLA $240 PUT  – Expiration: 2025‑04‑17 (weekly, 0DTE)  – Premium: Approximately $0.67 per contract (slightly above the preferred range, but justified by high liquidity and clear technical support)  – Entry Timing: At the open  – Profit Target: Around 100% gain from the entry premium (i.e. exit near a $1.34 premium)  – Stop‑Loss: Roughly a 50% loss at about $0.33 per contract  – Confidence Level: Approximately 65%  – Key Risks & Considerations:   • The mixed signals (especially Gemini’s caution and the max pain theory) mean price could quickly reverse if TSLA rebounds near 245.   • Very short‑term trading (0DTE) carries risks related to rapid time decay and volatility spikes.   • A failure to break important support (around 239.75) would warrant an early exit. ────────────────────────────── 4. TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format) { "instrument": "TSLA", "direction": "put", "strike": 240.0, "expiry": "2025-04-17", "confidence": 0.65, "profit_target": 1.34, "stop_loss": 0.33, "size": 1, "entry_price": 0.67, "entry_timing": "open" } Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by quantsignals
TSLA at a Crossroad: Can 252 Hold or Will It Crack?🔍 Technical Analysis (1H Chart Overview) TSLA has formed a symmetrical triangle, compressing between an uptrend and a downtrend line. Price is hovering right near the apex, with a key horizontal level at $249.89, where it's showing indecision. * Support levels: * $239.67 → Previous demand zone * $217.11 → Major swing low and last defense for bulls * Resistance levels: * $257.85 → Overhead rejection zone * $276.91 → Major gamma wall and swing high Volume is thinning out as price coils tighter, suggesting a breakout is imminent. The RSI is neutral around 50, slowly curving upward, signaling slight bullish momentum building, but no confirmation yet. Price is consolidating on declining volume, which is often a pre-breakout setup. 🔧 Trading Bias:
Watch for breakout above $253 for potential long play toward $258–$265.
Breakdown below $249 flips bias bearish, with a retest of $239 then $230 likely. ⚙️ GEX Option Flow Insights GEX data shows concentrated gamma resistance at $275–$280, with the highest positive NETGEX sitting right at $275 — that's our Gamma Wall. Above that, market makers become forced buyers, creating a squeeze scenario. On the downside, there’s a strong PUT wall around $220 and $200, with -50.27% NETGEX at $200 acting as deep support. Notably: * IVR: 67.2 * IVx Avg: 108.9 * Call Flow: 15.2% * GEX Sentiment: ☘️☘️🟢 (Bullish tilt, but not maxed out) 💡 Options Strategy Suggestion:
Consider a debit call spread if price breaks $253 with volume, targeting $265–$275.
If price breaks $249, put debit spreads to $230–$220 could offer solid reward. 🧠 Final Thoughts TSLA is a coiled spring, and both TA and GEX show we’re at a key decision point. Let price tell you the story — react to breakout or breakdown. Gamma positioning offers high reward potential in both directions. 📌 Stay nimble, plan both scenarios, and use options to your advantage.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by BullBearInsights
Quantum's TSLA Trading Guide 4/13/25Sentiment: Neutral. EV and AI optimism persists, but tariff risks and high valuation concern traders. Chatter split—bulls eye robotaxi, bears see pullback. Outlook: Neutral, slightly bearish. Options pin $250, with $240 puts active. ICT/SMT eyes $245-$250 buys to $260 if $245 holds. Bearish below $245 risks $240. Influential News: Federal Reserve: Two 2025 cuts support growth stocks, positive for $TSLA. Earnings: Q1 due late April; no update today. Chatter: Debates tariff impact vs. AI/EV growth. Mergers and Acquisitions: None; focus on internal projects. Other: Tariff volatility hit NASDAQ:TSLA ; stock swung (April 3-9). Indicators: Weekly: RSI: ~50 (neutral). Stochastic: ~45 (neutral). MFI: ~40 (neutral). SMAs: 10-day ~$255 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$260 (below, bearish). Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs signal weakness. Daily: RSI: ~48 (neutral). Stochastic: ~50 (neutral). MFI: ~45 (neutral). SMAs: 10-day ~$255 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$260 (below, bearish). Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs suggest pullback. Hourly: RSI: ~45 (neutral). Stochastic: ~55 (neutral). MFI: ~50 (neutral). SMAs: 10-day ~$255 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$260 (below, bearish). Interpretation: Neutral, stabilizing. Price Context: $252.31, 1M: +1%, 1Y: +38%. Range $240-$270, testing $250 support. Options Positioning (May 2025): Volume: Calls: $260 (15,000, 60% ask), $270 (12,000, 55% ask). Mild bullish bets. Puts: $240 (10,000, 70% bid), $245 (8,000, 65% bid). Put selling supports $245. Open Interest: Calls: $260 (40,000, +7,000), $270 (30,000, +5,000). Bullish interest. Puts: $240 (25,000, flat), $245 (28,000, +4,000). Hedging. Put-call ~1.0. IV Skew: Calls: $260 (40%), $270 (42%, up 3%). $270 IV rise shows upside hope. Puts: $240 (35%, down 2%), $245 (36%). Falling $240 IV supports floor. Probability: 60% $240-$270, 20% <$240. Karsan’s Interpretation: Vanna: Neutral (~300k shares/1% IV). IV drop could pressure $250. Charm: Neutral (~150k shares/day). Pins $250. GEX: +50,000. Stabilizes range. DEX: +7M shares, neutral. Karsan view: GEX holds $240-$270; tariff news key. ICT/SMT Analysis: Weekly: Neutral, $240 support, $270 resistance. No $TSLA/ NYSE:NIO divergence. Daily: Bullish at $250 FVG, targets $260. Bearish < $245. 1-Hour: Bullish >$250, $260 target. MSS at $245. 10-Minute: OTE ($249-$251, $250) for buys, NY AM. Trade Idea: Bullish: 50%. ICT/SMT buys $245-$250 to $260. Options show $260 calls. Fed cuts aid. Neutral: 35%. RSI (~50), SMAs (bearish), $240-$270 range. Bearish: 15%. Below $240 possible with tariffs. $240 put volume grows.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
Dageedoo Follower Request $TSLA close up #Internals You saw how this very similar W/double bottom on #61fib worked out on AAPL... This is a 50% retrace W... I prefer #61 retraces, but with TSLA im not surprised with some extra volatility. Go with the flow... 186 first level to break, 198 next stop. then if strong enough hammer on 198 200 critical level breaks 10+ and youre at 220 like AAPL hit and people profit take. Below redline or Diamond mid point (176) idea is DEAD. LESSON TIME; Critical level breaks can bring quick moves 10-20% in a few days. I'm always "eyeing" critical levels on "Big Name/Mega Cap" stocks... ie; FB 500+ , would you believe me if I was "eyeing" AVGO under 1500... you wouldve caught splits on that n NVDA with critical levels in mind (1000 crit level for NVDA)... 3 big stocks all breaking through with these methods is not as strong as some might think, short term yes, long term questionable. Not everything is a critical level/ price "number" and markets psychology help determine these, usually round, usually act as resistance or support prior, see AAPL W... 1 2 3strikes then through at the old stock game... LESSON CONT; I have a very unique set of tools. Tools I have acquired over many years. Tools that make me a nightmare for women who want a man with a "normal" job. Tools like Fibonacci Retracements, Technical Patterns, RSI, Stoch, Multiple Timeframes (3Day is my fav), and Bollinger Bands with MAs. Be sure you find your own trusted tools. Because I will be here, I will find the patterns, and I will execute them. -Good Luck - Prof
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Prophecies_R_Us
11
GEX Analysis & Options “Game Plan”🔶 Short- and longer-term perspective in a high IV, negative GEX environment 🔶 KEY LEVELS & RANGES Spot: 221 Gamma Flip / Transition: around 250 (the turquoise zone on the chart) – This zone typically marks a “power shift.” If price decisively breaks above 250 and holds, market makers’ gamma positioning could flip from neutral/negative to positive. Put Support: 200 – A large negative gamma position has accumulated here, making 200 a strong support level. If it breaks, the downside may accelerate. Call Resistance: 400 – A major long-term “call wall” where a significant amount of OTM calls are concentrated. It’s more relevant to LEAPS; currently far from spot, so not a realistic short-term target. Call Resistance #2: 300 – A medium-term bullish objective, still above the 200-day MA. You’d need to be strongly bullish to aim for ~300 by May (e.g., going for a 16-delta OTM call). Short-Term / Intermediate GEX Levels: – There are gamma clusters around 220–230 and 250–260 . These areas often see higher volatility, possible bounces, or stalls (chop) due to hedging flows. 🔶 WHATEVER SCENARIO – SHORT TERM (0–30 DAYS) A) Upside Continuation / Rebound – If TSLA closes above 225–230 , the next target is 240–250 (transition / gamma flip). – If it breaks above 250 and holds (e.g., successful retest), market makers may shift to “long gamma,” fueling a quicker move to 260–270 . – Resistance: 250, 300, with an extreme LEAPS-level at 400. B) Downside Move / Bearish Break – If price dips below ~220 and sustains, the next targets are 210–200 (major put wall / negative gamma). – If 200 fails, negative gamma may magnify the sell-off. It’s an extreme scenario but still on the table given high IV and macro/geopolitical risks. – Support: 210, 200 — likely stronger buying interest near 200, possibly a short-term bounce. – The options chain suggests near-term hedging via puts for this scenario. C) Chop / Sideways – If TSLA stays in 210–230 , market makers (short options) might benefit from high IV/time decay. – Negative GEX, however, can trigger sudden moves in either direction; caution is advised. 🔶 LONGER-TERM FOCUS (6–12 MONTHS, LEAPS) NET GEX = -61.97M (negative territory) suggests longer-dated positioning is also put-heavy or carries notable negative gamma. HVL / pTrans = 250 is a key pivot; cTrans+ = 400 is distant call resistance. Between these levels, there’s a mix of put/call dominance. If Tesla undergoes a fresh growth phase (AI, robotaxi, energy storage, etc.) and clears 250/300 , 400 could become the next significant call wall — but that’s more of a multi-month horizon. 🔶 STRATEGY IDEAS (High IV Environment) 1. Short-Term Bearish – If you’re bearish and expecting TSLA to test 220–210, consider a bear put spread or net credit put butterfly (lower debit) to leverage high IV. – Targeting 200, but keep in mind negative gamma may accelerate downside movement. 2. Medium-Term “Contra” Bullish (bounce to 250) – If GEX suggests a bounce off 210–220, consider a bull call spread (e.g., 220/240) or a net debit call butterfly (220/240/250). – Be mindful of sudden swings, as we remain in negative gamma territory. 3. Longer-Term Bullish (>3–6 months) – A call butterfly with upper strikes around 300–350 offers capped debit and higher potential payoff if a bigger rally materializes. – A diagonal spread (selling nearer-dated calls, buying further-out calls) exploits elevated front-end IV. 4. Neutral / Range-Bound – If TSLA stays in 200–250 , you could use Iron Condors (e.g., 200/260) to benefit from time decay and any IV collapse. – Exercise caution: negative gamma can generate abrupt, directional moves, making a neutral stance riskier than usual. 🔶 ADDITIONAL NOTES & “BIG PICTURE” High IV & Negative GEX: TSLA has a track record of large swings. Negative GEX can intensify sell-offs, while forced hedging might trigger rapid rebounds. Preferred Structures: With expensive premiums, spreads (vertical, diagonal) and butterfly configurations generally fare better than plain long options (less vulnerable to time decay). Potential Catalysts: AI announcements, Autopilot breakthroughs, new product lines, and macro changes can swiftly alter market dynamics. Keep tracking GEX updates and news flow; TSLA tends to respond dramatically to fresh developments. 🔶 Bottom line: From 221 spot, watch 210–200 on the downside and 240–250 on the upside short term. Medium-term bullish target = 300 , while 400 remains a far LEAPS scenario. High IV + negative gamma = fast, potentially volatile moves — so risk management and spread-based approaches are crucial.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by TanukiTrade
1
Tesla Shares Tumble 7%+ Following Cybertruck Quality ComplaintsTesla Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TSLA ) faced another sharp sell-off on Thursday 10th. The stock dropped 7.27% to close at $252.40, down $19.80 for the day. However, volume was high, reaching 399.04 million shares. The fall followed reports of build quality issues in Tesla’s Cybertruck. Owners posted complaints on the Cybertruck Owners Club forum. Several noted that the vehicle’s metal panels had detached. Additionally, videos showing Cybertruck damage in cold weather gained attention on social media site X. These reports raised concerns over production quality. Tesla had been recovering before the recent plunge. However, concerns about product reliability appear to have paused the rebound. Technical Analysis The 3-day chart shows Tesla in a strong downtrend. The stock broke below $290, triggering a drop to around $220 before bouncing back to $252. Price recently respected a key support near $190m, which may act as a floor for future declines. High volume near support signals buyer interest. If Tesla breaks above $290, it could retest $300. That zone acts as resistance and aligns with the 50- and 100-day moving averages at $252 and $232, respectively. The longer-term target is near $488, but the price must clear $290 first. A failure to hold support near $220 could send the stock back toward $180. The RSI is at 42.77, slightly above oversold. Momentum is weak but may shift if price builds support above $250. Tesla’s next move depends on how it manages both technical resistance and consumer concerns.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by DEXWireNews