ULTA "Beauty" - How Beautiful Is It Really?This is a MONTHLY chart. Each candle represents one month of price action.
Quick question. When a stock goes up, can we all agree that the market is buying it? Well of coarse! And we should be able to draw an up trend line that touches 2 or more candle lows to visually represent an increase in price over time.
One more quick question. What does it mean if we are able to draw other up trend lines that are steeper? Maybe it means that the market is buying it faster so it is going up faster? The series of steeper trend lines on this chart are my focus...
Let's focus on The Up Trend lines.
The first one starts in March of 2009 and has an angle of elevation of 21 degrees. Let's call this one UT#1.
The next starts in September of 2010 and has an angle of elevation of 27 degrees. Let's call this one UT#2.
The last one on this chart started in June of 2014 and has an angle of elevation of 40 degrees. Let's call this one UT#3.
I hope you can agree that owning ULTA from June, 2014 to now would have given you the fastest increase in value. Hence the 40 degree angle of elevation. Now that the history is behind us, we naturally want to know about the future... Anybody have a crystal ball that works??? My Dad had one but it had a crack in it I think. Oh yea, it was real foggy too. Especially when I asked him to tell me if the market or a stock was going to go up or down. I miss him alot...
Let's get back to the future... Remember this basic rule about trend lines. Price will either bounce at the trend line, loiter around the trend line, or go through the trend line. If ULTA bounces here, we can all agree the is a great place to get long. Entries Matter!! Your potential profit depends on it! If ULTA loiters around the trend line, you will have a hard time knowing what comes next so why be long or short? I wouldn't be either. If ULTA breaks down below the trend line, it might be a good time to be short. At least take some profits. Yes, I know, I just said "short" ULTA... It is always a possibility.
ULTA's price dropped below UT#3 in september but then went back above it by the end of the month. In October ULTA was higher than the September candle high but is now back to UT#3. This is not a good sign for longs. It is time to watch this closely. 40% of October is still in front of us so just watch ULTA. Don't go making any rash decisions. Decide what your "line in the sand" is. Mine would be UT#3. Or the open of September's candle. Or the low of the August candle. If you sell at your line in the sand, and ULTA bounces, you can always buy it back.
Protect your profits!!
