UPST: Definitely a Multi-BaggerUpstart Holdings operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform. The company aggregates consumer demand for loans and connects it to its network bank partners.
Levine (1997) postulated that financial development contributes to economic growth. Financial development takes place when (1) the range of financial products broadens and (2) the accessibility of financial products improves. Upstart happens to plug this gap by increasing accessibility of loans to consumers, while at the same time reducing default rates (less people will run on the loan, less risk is taken).
The management team of Upstart is impressive, with an experienced CEO, a brilliant whiz kid and a solid operational genius. I believe that they have the drive, capacity, and the audacity to make this work. The company also has a wide moat with its unique automated lending AI model – it takes a long time to build something like this and Upstart has managed to make it work. If Upstart's algorithm is being updated and improved constantly, the company could become the Google of AI lending!
The company is obviously massively overpriced with a forward P/E of about 200 times. However, that is usually the case with most innovative multibaggers (see Facebook, Amazon, Google), they are almost always overpriced. The share price has recently retraced from its high of $191 and is consolidating along the 50-day moving average. Given that it is forming an ascending triangle pattern on lowered volume, I would buy on the break of $130 as a trade or start accumulating for a long-term position.
