ULEV34 trade ideas
Rare Buying Opportunity: Unilever (UL)This is a yearly chart of Unilever over the past 50+ years (non-logarithmic).
The orange line is a smoothened 9-year moving average. This line provides the most conservative price at which Unilever will likely close the year (about 6% higher than the current price). The 9-year smoothened moving average has never failed to provide support in the past nearly half-century.
This is a rare buying opportunity for long-term investors who want to buy and hold assets for years. Unilever is a high-dividend stock and the price of the stock will likely grow steadily for years to come.
This long-term growth analysis has been validated by the Wave Trend Oscillator by @LazyBear. This extremely accurate oscillator indicates that Unilver's monthly price is overextended to the downside even more than the low of the Great Recession and that the downtrend will likely come to an end in the coming months if it has not yet already.
Please share your thoughts below. Not financial advice. As always anything can happen and trends can end. Invest at your own risk.
Unilever (ULVR) Intrinsic Value - DCF ModelUnilever DCF Assumptions:
Tax Rate = 23.5%
Discount Rate = 4.9%
Perpetual Growth Rate = 1.5%
EV/EBITDA Multiple = 12.5x
Transaction Date = 01/04/2022
Fiscal Year-End = 31/12/2022
Current Price = 41.92
Shares Outstanding = 2,610
Debt = 29,672
Cash = 4,495
Capex = 1,340
Base Case Scenario
In addition to the above assumptions, the below DCF model is based on our base case scenario, which assumes a revenue growth over the next five years of 5%, 3%, 3%, 3%, 3%. These assumptions are lower than analysts’ forecasts.
DCF (5Y) EBITDA EXIT MODEL:
Terminal Value
Final Forecast EBITDA (m) = €12,873
EV/EBITDA Multiple = 12.5x
TERMINAL VALUE (m) = €160,909
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value = €162,651
Plus: Cash = €4,495
Less: Debt = €29,672
Equity Value = €137,474
EQUITY VALUE / SHARE = €52.68 / £44.25
DCF (5Y) PERPETUAL GROWTH RATE MODEL
Terminal Value
Final Forecast FCFf (m) = €8,742
Perpetual Growth Rate = 0.5%
TERMINAL VALUE (m) = €201,447
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value = €195,001
Plus: Cash = €4,495
Less: Debt = €29,672
Equity Value = €169,824
EQUITY VALUE / SHARE = $65.08 / £54.66
DISCLAIMER:
All information is the author’s views, opinions, and assumptions at the time of writing, and Bull Headed Bear makes no guarantees of the information’s reliability and accuracy. The information is to be used for entertainment and informative purposes only. Bull Headed Bear and its authors reserve the right to change their views, opinions and assumptions due to many influencing factors.
Any actions taken based on the information on the website are strictly at your own risk. All investments carry a risk of loss, and you could lose all your money. Consider seeking professional advice from a financial advisor. Bull Headed Bear and its authors will not be liable for any losses or damages from the information on this site.
DISCLOSURE:
I/we have open long positions in Unilever. We have no immediate intentions of altering this position in the short term but have the right to change this if more information becomes available.
$ULI like where this sits on the daily. We may be gaining some momentum long term even with uncertainty in the market. In my opinion, $UL is not a failing company and customers still use their products for daily needs. I believe this here is a discount from its previous high. Let's see how much price can retrace the most recent high. Last time price was in this area was march of last year. How ironic....
What do you think?
"Dying to Live"
UL 1D Wolfe Wave Long Side 3/22A Wolfe Wave is a chart pattern composed of five wave patterns in price that imply an underlying equilibrium price. Investors who use this system time their trades based upon the resistance and support lines indicated by the pattern.
UL 1D Wolfe Wave Long Side 3/11A Wolfe Wave is a chart pattern composed of five wave patterns in price that imply an underlying equilibrium price. Investors who use this system time their trades based upon the resistance and support lines indicated by the pattern.
Unilever point towards a collapse/bear market!Hi all,
Do I need to say more? Check the weekly chart of Fugro and see what happened after a triangle that formed for about 3 years (2011-2014). This one has been forming for about 2,5 years... Unilever made an early top in September 2019 and according to my own theory, sometimes gives big hints of what is to come or a big top or bottom in the overall market...
An alternative (which is not drawn in the chart) is that the blue 'D' should be the recent spike low and the E is still to be made (so we could go a little higher). For me it is potato/potatoe, I am in a put position and waiting for the move down. :)
I wish you all the wisdom to stay safe in the bear market that has started as of November 2021 (divergent higher high in America (ES for example) compared to Europe per the beginning of January). I am early to call this (it has been my preferred scenario since the middle of 2021), though I have been silent on TradingView and I will remain silent in the future (to busy with work and family life). I believe in this scenario until proven otherwise. So I act accordingly with my different option positions. ;)
So see this as a little present and enjoy it. ;)
Shalom,
Im
UNILEVER - FAIR PRICE FOR ENTRYWEEKLY CHART
Both moving average and 20 years trend channel shows that Unilever makes you money around these areas.
52 to 50 is perfect entry areas I believe.
Patience pays off...
Unilever - long-term opportunityBuy signal - h1 chart - break of the trend line
Daily chart - we may have a completed ABC pattern with a nice upside potential.
Good luck!
UNA breaking out of Wedge in 2022?Unilever has been in a wedge since over 2 years...With the resistance line being solid since April 2009.
- This resistance line saw only a wick breakout during the Corona panic dip March 2020.
With the price so close to this resistance and the wedge pattern coming near in 2022...I am going long UNA 2022 let's go
What to think about these entry's?Thinking about these entry's for Unilever, any thoughts?
go easy on me, i'm a beginner ;)
UL 30m Wolfe Wave bullishA Wolfe Wave is a chart pattern composed of five wave patterns in price that imply an underlying equilibrium price. Investors who use this system time their trades based upon the resistance and support lines indicated by the pattern.
Unilever Plc (ULVR)Unilever on Thursday reported higher-than-expected third quarter underlying sales growth, as it hiked prices in response to cost inflation. The consumer goods and food maker said underlying sales rose 2.5% for the three months to September 30, beating the 2.2% of analysts' forecasts. Growth was boosted by good demand in the US, India, China and Turkey, while a 4.1% increase in prices offset a 1.5% volume decline.
The Company reiterated its guidance for full-year 2021 operating margins to be "around flat" year-on-year thanks to multiple factors. Those included revenue growth management initiatives, savings from efficiencies, some benefit from the unwinding of the Covid-19 on costs and mix and from adjusting Brand and Marketing investments. But Unilever might lose some market share after several large fast-moving consumer goods rivals, such P&G, Loreal or Nestle, had flagged their intention to ramp-up marketing spend.
The company could be a mega-merger target.
Will History Repeat for ULThere seems to be a rotation into Consumer Defensive even as SPY & growth stocks like MSFT are choppy. UL may be setting up for a breakout.
Inflexion zone!The weekly SSB was my inflexion zone here. I was waiting for rejection from that zone and we got that today so i jump in. Two small positions with the 1st TP being the weekly Tenkan and the 2nd TP being a Monthly Kijun.
Entry: 4204
SL: 4307
TP1: 4045 (R:1.54)
TP2: 3803 (R:3.89)
The operative phrase here is 'small positions'. . .
ULVR | Triple bottom on weeklyHi all,
ULVR looking very attractive at the moment, as a triple bottom has formed from prior resistance around 3700 GBX.
I see this as a floor and any touches over the coming weeks will be a good chance to accumulate the name.
Could see Volume resistance around 4300 GBX
We can see a wedge forming with long-term dynamic support and recent downwards resistance too.
Any impulse and pop above the wedge should bring us back to ATHs with 40%+ gains.
Any thoughts?
(*This is not financial advice, for sake of discussion and illustrative purposes only*)
UL still has to arrive to resistence at 58 UL inside the channel. Buy now and wait until the new high at 58
Unilever Analysis Multiple scenarios available:
a) If long term support (purple) is able to squeeze price past fiv lvl 0.236 and past the descending yellow resistance = BUY.
b) If price is not squeezed and falls through the purple support, it plays into the descending pennant. Fact that i broke longterm bull trend in bad sign.
If it breaks the descending resistance its a buy signal, if breaks support strong sell signal.
Divergent in RSI so uptrend incomingHello everyone,
So UNILEVER is in a strong down trend since the earnings were published (why, I have no idea).
However I see a divergent in the RSI. RSI goes up, while the trend is going down.
I think that the trend will go up soon, because of the indicator. Hopefully it will break trough the SMMA 20.
My price target will be 3783 GBX, the first resistance. After this one is broken, it can push through the 4000.
This is my first Technical Analyse ever.
Please feel free to leave a comment and give me advice/feedback.
Have a nice evening,
Lorenzo
(Netherlands)
Decent bounce incoming or death time for unileverCould be a good bounce moment, ~42 seems a good bounce area since it was a long term resistance / support. If it goes below 40 I would sell it since it would follow the big head and shoulder pattern and go down hard.
