VLOE34 trade ideas
VALERO Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 060723 Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 113/61.80%
Chart time frame : C
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress : A
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) Hit the bottom
D) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
Valero (VLO) More Energy LongsVLO tapped the midpoint at $110.01 and hit the perfect reentry at $109.04. If it gets another good chance to get long we'll take it. If not, because it hit right off the midpoint perfectly if it gets to the final target we'll get short with a tight stop too see what kind of reversal we can get at $111.96.
VLO Valero Energy Options Ahead of EarningsLooking at the VLO Valero Energy options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the $143 strike price Calls with
2023-2-3 expiration date for about
$4.20 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
VLO confirms breakoutOn my radar is this energy sector company called Valero Energy Corporation, Ticker: VLO
The idea details:
Ideal Entry @ $136.00
Ideal Stop @ $125.25
Ideal Target(s) @ $146.50, $160.25 & $167.25
Option Proxy:
Expiration: June 16, 2023
Strike: 150
Ideal Entry Price: $8.00
Ticker: .VLO230616C150
Trade Plan:
Entering trade at approximately $136.00 would be ideal, upon testing target 1 @ $146.50 we’d sell 1/3 of our position booking partial profits, at that time we would also move our Stop to our ideal entry @ breakeven. Upon testing target 2 @ $160.25 we’d sell another 1/3 of our position booking additional partial profits, at that time we would also move our Stop to where we took our first profits @ target 1. We’d allow our last 1/3 to run towards our final target or stop us out for profits at the target 1 location. Maintain Option Proxy profit taking in conjunction with the underlying stock price.
ABC BullishPrice has fallen from a rising wedge and did not go back down to C.
There was also a small RSI divergence and it appears both have corrected.
STOP below C.
No recommendation.
D is the target. It can be 100% of leg AB or a greater or a lesser Fib level of leg AB.
It is a measured move that occurs over and over in the market. This pattern will reverse at D.
It appears that the lower trendline of the wedge is causing resistance today.
$VLO daily bear flag VLO reports earnings later this month. I have a decent long position in this name, but for a day trade or swing Idea, I like longs over 128 and puts under 124.4
I personally believe what worked in 2022 won't in 2023, so oil names may not be as safe of a hiding place for big funds this new year.
What Is Smart Money?Smart money is capital placed in the market by institutional investors, market mavens, central banks, funds, and other financial professionals.
Smart money also refers to the force that influences and moves financial markets, often led by the actions of central banks.
Smart money is invested on a much larger scale than retail investments.
But do you know why they call themselves Smart?
Because their access to data and their analytical ability at any given moment is much higher than retail traders!
Bringing the game to the next level:
After I publish my analysis for VLO on March 7th, 2022, and mentioned an opportunity to buy at 86-87 level with a 46% gain in less than 6 months:
1- March 8th,2022:
- Bank of America added VLO to the US1 list and adjusted its target price to 135 from 107 for 2022.
(The US 1 list reflects strategic stock recommendations made by the BofA Merrill Lynch US 1 committee.)
-Scotiabank Raises Price Target for Valero Energy to $90 From $83.
2-March 14th,2022:
-JPMorgan Adjusts Valero Energy's Price Target to $101 From $95
-Tudor Pickering Raises Price Target for Valero Energy to $104 From $93
So, it is not impossible to beat the so-called smart money..!
Another layer of analysis:
If you are looking at oil prices since March 7th, you see a 15-20% correction, but VLO is up more than 6.3% since then???
Because there is something more important than Oil price for refineries..!
That is called Crack spread..!
Any increase in the crack spread will increase refineries profit exponentially..!
While the oil price is 34% up YTD, Crack spread is up 91% YTD, which means lower oil prices could increase the refineries profit..!
moreover, VLO is the second biggest Biodiesel producer in the world and benefit from it as well..!
Conclusion:
I will not care about oil price as long as the crack spread is higher than the 2021 average(21)..!
Best,
Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
* I have a long position.
VLO opportunity on dip buyDon't know why this sold off today, there is insider selling, but this is a solid energy play. Good dividend, excellent growth metrics. Solid 50 day, 200 day, and 52 week EMAs. I own since 34% ago, will add more should it dip to 61.8% fib around $125. Energy momo is here to stay for a while.
$VLO with a Bearish outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a Bearish outlook for $VLO after a Negative Under reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift D.
$VLO with a Bullish outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a Bullish outlook for $VLO after a Positive over reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift B with an expected accuracy of 66.67%.
Why you need exit strategy ???It was March 7th when I published my first VLO analysis:
I revised my target price to 140 on April 26:
then VLO went up to 148
+84% in less than 100 days..!
Now you see the highest ever revenue and learning per share, but the price is 25% below its All time high???
Why?
Maybe the best answer is provided by George Soros:
The reality is that financial markets are self-destabilizing; occasionally they tend toward disequilibrium, not equilibrium.
Best,
VLO inverse head and shouldersas stated in my post earlier I have a small position in VLO & this inverse head and shoulders as my top watch.
VLO inverse head and shoulders Oil has been beat down lately and even with that being said VLO has been one of my top watches as this thing was performing very strongly up to this point. Entered a small position today on the breakout shown here and plan to swing
Possible Inverse Head and Shoulder pattern for VLO? Apparently, VLO is forming an inverse head and shoulder pattern.
Disclaimer, I'm not a professional investor nor a financial adviser, follow at your own risk.
VLO High-risk Initial LongVLO High-risk Initial Long. SL and TP on the chart. 10-20x leverage. Move SL on TP.
Crack Spread and Valero Gross Prfit corelation..!Let's combine Technical analysis and Fundamental analysis:
Valero Energy Corp. engages in the manufacture and marketing of transportation fuels and other petrochemical products. It operates through the following business segments: Refining, Ethanol, and Renewable Diesel. The Refining segment consists of refining operations, associated marketing activities, and logistics assets that support its refining operations. The Ethanol segment includes its ethanol operations, associated marketing activities, and logistics assets that support its ethanol operations. The Renewable Diesel covers the operations of Diamond Green Diesel Holdings LLC. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in San Antonio, TX.
Crack Spread and Valero Gross Profit correlation:
Crack Spread and Valero Net Income correlation:
Gasoline will still remain the primary transportation fuel in the US through 2050, but its consumption is on the verge of peaking in either 2022 or 2023, the EIA projects. (spglobal)
Moreover, demand will be strong!
At least we have 1-2 good years ahead..!
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
* I have a long position.
6/1/22 VLOValero Energy Corporation ( NYSE:VLO )
Sector: Energy Minerals (Oil Refining/Marketing)
Market Capitalization: $52.889B
Current Price: $132.55
Breakout price: $135.90
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $128.75-$118.15
Price Target: $186.30-$189.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 314-322d
Contract of Interest: $VLO 1/20/23 145c
Trade price as of publish date: $12.45/contract
Long scalp VLOBased on its uptrend, rebound from support and a familiar chart pattern confirmed by my technical indicators, I expect at least half a percent in profits IF VLO exceeds yesterday's high of $124.08 during today's session.
A possible 46% opportunity in less than 6 months..!Notice: this trading setup is based on higher oil prices in the coming months, because of the geopolitical tensions..!
Entry: 86-87
Stop loss: 75
Reward/Risk: 3.35
Target range: 127
Time Frame: 24 wks
Possible gain: 46%
Possible loss: 13.5%
Position size: 10% of trading capital
You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels.
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
*I have long position in VLO
