Can sellers maintain control to the downsideSellers continued to press the S&P 500 lower on Thursday. Can sellers maintain control to the downside as we go into the weekend. Watch out for a bounce from Friday lows.
WSP1! trade ideas
ES Major Trend SupportES is threatening to break below the uptrend from early August. It has been respecting this trend pretty well except for the fakeout below in late October. I expect a bounce here, but it's worth noting today was the first close below 6k since ES broke above it. It needs reclaim quickly and hold this uptrend, otherwise we could see another leg down to the 5900 area.
2024-11-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Bears moving it lower but barely. Every low was followed by 7-10 point pullback. For tomorrow I can see the following, 5909 is the daily 20ema and the breakout retest is at 5924. Those could be potential targets if the bears are strong and keep the market below 6000. Above 6000 I think many bears will give up and market could retry 6030 or higher. On the daily chart we have a two legged pullback and bulls are free to melt again. Still heavily favoring the bulls since the selling is so weak.
comment : Close below 6000 was good for the bears but does the 1h chart look bearish to you? Look at the daily chart and see how insignificant this move down is. Bears would need a big acceleration down and keep the market below the 5m 20ema for couple of hours and 100+ points. This will likely be a minor pullback which the bulls buy tomorrow. Be prepared for a nasty short squeeze tomorrow. I would not be surprised if we close above 6060 but consider me dumbfounded if we close the week below 5950.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 5900 - 6100
bull case: Bulls want to close the week green and print another buy signal going into next week. Most bears will likely cover above 6000 and try again around 6015, which was the big magnet for the entire week and it will likely be for tomorrow as well. Above 6035 we see a complete give up by bears until 6053. Everything is in place for a big move tomorrow.
Invalidation is below 5960.
bear case: Bears closed below 6000. That’s the only thing they have going for them. Can they get down to the breakout price 5924 and daily 20ema around 5911? I highly doubt it. For that to happen the market would have to stay below 6000 and trap many bulls. Even a hot ppi print today could not move the market much and we had two sided trading all day. In all fairness, we have a very clear bull channel on the daily chart, with 2 upper trend lines, one around the ath 6053 and the other currently runs through 6180. I think 6180 is currently much more likely than touching the lower trend line at 5760.
Invalidation is above 6001.
short term: Bullish. Want to see a 2%+ up move tomorrow and squeeze further. Below 5950 we will print 5920 or 5900.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
Update 2024-11-14: Blow-off top happening right now. Got measured move targets above 6150 or higher. Santa came early, so don’t expect him to come around again this year.
current swing trade : Nope
trade of the day: Selling the open was decent I guess. Market looks much more bearish on the 1h tf than it was. Much two sided trading with better end for the bears. I don’t think selling 6000 was a good trade, despite going down to 5964.
This is About Shorting, Law of Attraction and Wyckoff VSAA Short video showing the new Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis System and coaching with TradeToWin Pro V 1 for TradingView.
Es levels and targets Nov14thAfter last week’s 330-point rally, ES has been following its usual routine after a big move: consolidation, forming a flag. Resistance/target sits at 6028-32, marking yesterday’s highs, and 6009 support held overnight. Don’t overtrade.
As of now: 6009=support. This level keeps 6032, 6038, and ATHs in play. Breakdown only kicks in if 5996-98 fails.
ES Overnight Price action review 11-14-24 PPI Going over Price action Overnight looking for clues as to what the market is telling us and how we plan on trading the day. no A+ setup no trade Thursday. we do have PPI today but not as big a deal as CPI. or close.
SPY Day Trading Using @mwrightinc Indicators Give a man a fish, and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, and you feed him for a lifetime. In this video, I explain how I use 4 free TradingView indicators to identify entries on SPY.
There is a lot of information out there about creating support and resistance zones. But, drawing reliable ones only comes with experience. In my 3 years of options trading and indicator building, I've found a few patterns that seem to work pretty reliably with SPY.
Order blocks, and SPY price levels at $2.50 increments, are 2 of the most predictable. To capture price movements based on these, I explain how I use the QQQ and SPY Price Levels and Magic Order Blocks indicators with SPY options and /MES futures trading.
Additionally, volume weighted average price (VWAP), plays an important role every day because institutional (large) investors commonly use it for entries and exits. It is a great gauge of daily trends. ATR bands (also known as Keltner Channels) can also provide an at-a-glance look at what can be expected of price action in the near future.
To monitor these, I explain how I use the ATR Bands (Keltner Channels) SRSI and Wick Signals and Multi VWAP indicators. Specifically, how they were used on the 11/13/2024 Trading day.
All of the indicators are free and open source, and were built with the goal of making everyone a better trader. I hope you find the content useful.
- Mo
AMP Futures - How to create order presets.In this idea we will show you how to create order presets using the Tradingview platform.
S&P 500: As forecasted, price is in a range!Likely going to be the same again i.e. range with bearish bias for tomorrow.
There's the Core CPI news at 8:30AM EST, so do take note of that. It might change the market's sentiment.
I'm still leaning towards price heading down to the 5900 support zone, but we shall see.
Sitting on the sidelinesThe structure in the daily chart of the S&P 500 implies a market sitting on the sideline as it awaits the PPI numbers being released on Thursday. This is a balanced formation and the bias is for move higher. Ideally you would want to close above 6070 if there is an enthusiastic response from buyers.
ES price Action review RTH 11-13-24 CPI Going over the price action from the CPI report and reflecting on how we could have traded better and how price action resolved from our plan. do your nightly work see you guys in the morning.
ES/SPX levels and targets Nov 13thYesterday, ES saw its first pullback after last week’s 330-point rally. We got a dip to 5986.75, bouncing up 40 points from there. With CPI on deck in 15 mins, it’s time to size down.
Plan for now: Key supports at 6002 (weak) and 5988. A reclaim of 6009 opens up targets at 6019 and 6032-33. If 5988 breaks, look for an initial dip to 5972.
ESPrice tagged upper trend monday...
I highlighted last 2 times price went this overbought and tagged uppertrend.
The first tag was after the August sell off. We reached the uppertrend and chopped for 2 weeks before dumping
The second tag was mid Sept, we again chopped for 2 weeks but afterwards we bounced off the 20sma and grinded up another 2% or 90 points.
So here we are now the pullback has been miniscule compared to the run up so I'd say we are in a chop phase
So we either a chopped towards the 20sma around 5900 and bounce or
Money flow is starting to dip low on the hourly which leads me to believe we will reclaim the highs again this week
Be honest with you, I don't see a 10% drop coming till after the elections or by some unforseen catalyst.
NASDAQ:NVDA earnings next week will have more of an impact on the indexes than CPI and PPI combined 😆
So my analysis is ,
Overbought
Not bearish
Seasonality strong..
Market will look for any reason (News) to buy dip.
Choppy (1% range) for another week
11-12-24 RTH ES price action review and Overnight session 11-13going over yesterday's price action RTH ES and reviewing the overnight session looking for clues as to how we could have traded better and our plan for the day. always know where you'll get out if you're wrong and size down today. only A+ trade setups. thats it.
Profit-taking?Is the selling action on Tuesday in the S&P 500 representing buyers selling to take profits or are new sellers entering the market to drive prices lower before the CPI numbers on Wednesday. The overall structure has a bullish bias with a neutral setting.
S&P 500: Likely going to be in a broad rangeToday is indeed a bearish day, which means yesterday's doji played out.
The 6000 support level held up pretty strong, and which means the bulls are still holding on.
But it is likely going to be in a broad range tomorrow with a bearish bias.
So, mark out your levels well...and sell at support & buy at resistance :)
Chart you should be interested atThis scenario I shared took time and multiple scenarios from EW
In the end, this is the best scenario
And in my opinion, you could see how the high-risk markets started to pump
That usually happens in the 5th wave of the bigger markets like sp500 etc...
You can call that liquidity sharing
It happens in the 5th to create as much FOMO as possible + bring liquidity to the market
I still hold most of my positions in crypto and some stocks
.
About the analysis I shared
.
The one notice is
It could go more up than the targets
The targets I used are W5=W1
If you use W5=0.618,0.78 of W3
You will get other possible targets
I am not hiding a secret here
Those are kinda basics in EW or Fibo trading but most people forget about it
I am not saying get out of the market I will never say such a thing
What I will say is get ready for the next opportunity
Dont burn your profits
ES RTH 11-11 Overnight session 11-12 Price Action Reviewgoing over the price action RTH for monday and reflecting back on the clues the market left us to what it wanted to do. not what we wanted it to do. then going over the overnight session and coming up with a game plan for the day. CPI tomorrow most likely range day.
Slowing downThe smaller bodies on the candles as price moves higher in the S&P 500 is a sign that the S&P 500 is slowing down. It could also be a market getting ready for additional information coming out later this week. I am not looking for a big day down but we do want to be cautious if we are on the long side of this market.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 11.10 - 11.15.24Last Week :
Last week market opened under 5792 - 72 Edge which meant weakness to start the week and gave us moves towards lower VAH but again we kept getting buying at and under Previous Distribution Balance low and inside Value. We knew to be careful and that holding over 730s meant there is no need for larger supply to sell out. 724 was also an important area on Daily TF as it was the bottom of Daily Edge which we broke out of after our roll gap in September, we tested it but there was no break or any continuation under it. We knew if market gets back over 790s that could bring back strength to push back in Previous Value which is what we got on Tuesday leading into Election Results. Election Globex gave a huge move which continued higher towards 930s - 770s ranges Edge, took it out, consolidated and rest of the week we got lower volume grind higher into a new range to finish the week with a failure over new Value.
This Week :
Not easy to trade ATHs especially if we get them every few weeks or months and of course this move could be viewed as strength to bring in more buying that can keep us in this range or even continue grinding higher BUT something to keep in mind as few things are lining up here.
We have made an Edge to Edge push on Daily TF ( reaching big Edge areas more often than not provides reaction in opposite direction ) , we have extended away from Daily MAs with a strong impulse that gave us blow off the top sort of move over our Previous Highs consolidation, we have finished the week with a failed or sort of failed push over VAH since we didn't fully come back in and held over 920s , we didn't reach new ranges top.
Now all this doesn't mean we can't hold and continue balancing/grinding higher towards that Edge top and over still BUT if all this buying over 930s was from all the late buyers/traders who sat on their hands during the election days, came in saw areas holding and were buying for continuation to make money off momentum then they were also probably unloading as it went higher and might not have plans to hold this up long term unless market continues in their favor. If market does not continue in their favor and we get back under VAH / 620s then we could see this thing start moving towards their cost basis, we have Poor Globex low holding one of them up around the Mean of the Range, if that gets taken we will look for continuation towards VAL which has another cost basis and a base below it which could give us covering/holds in that area BUT I would not trust those areas for a longer term position, if market cant keep holding over the Mean/VAL of this range then we could see it come all the way back into lower Edge and maybe even under our Previous Highs to signal a failed new ATH break out. Will this all happen in a week or will it be a slow process is for us to find out, we don't really have market moving data to start the week and if we don't get new buying to keep pushing us then we at least can look for this process to start and see how it goes.
On the other side for this move to stick and to think higher prices from here we would want to see us hold over VAH or at least push back towards the Mean/Hold over and get back over VAH as we need to get over 640s and test the upper Edge with holds inside or right under the Edge after the test, until this happens I will lean more towards a move back inside Value towards VAL and potentially finding our top around here.
Veterans Day!Today being the beginning of the week and a bank holiday, the markets were choppy! From looking at the fair value gaps, I can see the potential for the market to drop. I also notice that the candlesticks are exhausting, so a pullback is evident, it’s just a question of how far will we pull back. Right now I positioned myself into a Put Options contract. We will see by tomorrow if anything will occur to help me hedge the position or add to it.
With no economic data releasing until Wednesday, it’s a risk. But thats trading at its core. I am looking at today’s doji candle as a sign that we will pull back a bit more, it’s just a question of when and how much.
Lately we have been on an aggressive bull run that the pullbacks have been very short lived. This is not a problem, it just takes a level of extreme focus, and unwavering confidence in your strategy to exit a Put position at the right time.
We take a moment to study SPY, we see several gaps that were created last week from the run up. What goes up, must come down they say, so I would expect SPY at some point to come down a retest its gap at 593. Tomorrow will provide more data into what the pullback may look like. Until then I will keep my eyes on the futures market and prepare!
S&P500: Bearish now? MaybeLast Friday I said we might see some retracement today. It didn't happen!
But if price continues to go sideways until market closes, then we have a Daily bearish doji. This is a better reversal candlestick pattern.
However, this just mean we should see some retracement. How much of it remains to be seen. Price needs to break below the 5990 area to see greater retracement.
If it doesn't, then we should see more sideways action for the rest of the week.
For now, I think price is going to chop around the range area.
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #2 - ES Demand LongWe got a bearish break on some shorter term timeframes, but I'm still looking for dips to buy until bears prove themselves. Ideally ES would come all the back down to demand and 6,000 for a long. Another potential support area is around 6,020.
I'd prefer the long at 6,000, especially if VX is near resistance at the time. However, a long could work around 6,020 and a short could work if it breaks below 6,000 and fails on a retest.
