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WSP1! trade ideas

2025-01-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: One again we saw a huge Globex sell spike but now follow-through. Bulls are on their way to 6100 and there we will see how many buyers we can find to retest the ath 6186. Plan is simple, trade the bull channel/expanding triangle until clearly broken. current market cycle: trading range (obvious bull trend on lower time frames) key levels: 6000 - 6100 (above 6100 comes 6200 into play) bull case: Bulls are in BTFD mode and making higher highs again. 6100 is their next target and the last resistance until 6186. Problem for the bulls is that we get decent sell spikes and holding through them is tough. That is probably why we see bigger profit taking when we print new highs. Invalidation is below 6000. bear case: Bears ask themselves how many pushes on whatever time frame bulls can honestly get. The 6100 likely won’t hold but how many are willing to buy above 6100 when we could easily pull-back 100 points. We will find out tomorrow. Bears don’t have many arguments. We have a clear bull pattern upwards and the best they can hope for is to scalp short on new highs for a decent pull-back. Until bears can close consecutive bars below 6000, I would not look for bigger shorts. Given the current erratic price action due to orange man tweets, it’s a wild ride. Trade smaller and with wider stops. Invalidation is above 6120. short term: Bullish for 6100, then Neutral until clearly breaking out above again. Targets above are 6186 and then 6200. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying 6000, duh. Otherwise literally every touch of the 1h 20ema.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Equity Indices Starting off 2025Since the turn of the New Year, equity markets have seen a lot of volatility. The ES and NQ markets have both seen consolidation from the highs back in December, and now after testing the November lows are moving back higher. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the markets with a shift in global economics and politics on the front of many traders minds, but looking at the ES contract there is still a lot of recovery needed to retest the recent all time high levels. Looking more at the economic data, this week will be lighter in terms of data being released, and traders are starting to look ahead to the Fed policy decision next week. The CME Fed Watch Tool is indicating that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at the January 29th meeting. Both the ES and NQ offer micro contracts that provide traders a unique level of scalability and a smaller barrier to entry, click here to learn more! If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:ESH2025
by CME_Group
ES Futures Trade Idea - Trump Inauguration MLK weekMacroeconomic News: US markets were closed yesterday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. ES, NQ and YM futures saw mild gains yesterday, RTY futures outperformed. As the 47th president of the United States, Donald Trump took the oath of office promising to protect the border, address inflation, and restructure trade policies. In addition to withdrawing from the Paris Climate Treaty and signing orders to cancel 78 Biden-era acts, he also started energy production reforms, such as drilling for oil in the Arctic. Trump discussed agreements over TikTok ownership, threatened global tariffs, and suggested imposing duties on the EU, Canada, and Mexico. He urged a speedy conclusion to the conflict in Ukraine and gave top priority to evaluating China's adherence to trade agreements. Trump stopped importing oil from Venezuela, emphasized energy independence, and lifted sanctions on Israeli settlers. The goal of bold measures is to put American workers and security first. Following yesterday's strong selling pressure, which was brought on by the announcement that President Trump would not impose tariffs on the first day of his presidency, the dollar is now showing signs of recovery. Nevertheless, Trump's statement that he is considering 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and believes they would be implemented on February 1st shattered trade confidence overnight. In our opinion, buy the rumor-sell the fact, sell the rumor-buy the fact, will likely be a key theme during Trump’s presidential term. ES Futures update: As we can see in the chart above, ES futures are currently above our Line in the Sand, Yearly Open at 5,949.25. ES futures also made a higher low on Jan 13th, 2025 compared to Nov 4th, 2024 swing low. ES futures formed a bull flag after the Dec 18th, 2024 FOMC announcement. Price has now broken out of the bull flag channel. Key Levels to Watch Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. Jan 6th Weekly Hi: 6,068.25 Jan 13th Weekly Hi: 6,051.50 Yearly Open | LIS (Line in Sand): 5,949.25 Resistance R1: 6,105 - 6,115 Resistance R2: 6,145 - 6,155 All time highs: 6,184.50 Scenario 1: Breakout continuation Price has broken out of bull flag formation from the Dec 18th, 2024 FOMC announcement. Break above current area of consolidation marked in Blue zone forming the area between Jan 6th and Jan 13th Weekly Highs. Price heads towards R1, R2 and R3 targets. Scenario 2: Further consolidation Price further consolidates this week awaiting a catalyst to trend higher next week. Strong earnings season propels US futures and stocks higher. We encourage you to monitor these levels closely and incorporate them into your trade planning. Share your thoughts or insights on these key levels in the comments below.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by EdgeClear
ES/SPX Morning Update Jan21stYesterday showcased a textbook display of failed breakdown trades in ES, with targets at 6066 (hit), 6074 (hit), and 6087 yet to be hit. Mentioned sunday 6005 would be actionable on a test an recovery and buyers agreed late monday. We’ve tapped 6066 three times, creating a tricky chop zone from 6066 to 6016-20—over-trading here can be costly. As of now: • 6043 = support to keep 6066, 6074, and 6087+ in play • If 6043 fails, look to sell down to 6033 and 6016-20
CME_MINI:ESH2025
by ESMorg
M.A.G.A's STORYTAIL (SP500)If I can reach the stars, pull one down for you Shine it on my heart so you could see the truth That this love I have inside is everything it seems But for now I find, it's only in my dreams And I can change the world I will be the sunlight in your universe You would think my love was really something good Baby, if I could change the world If I could be king, even for a day I'd take you as my queen, I'd have it no other way And our love would rule in this kingdom we have made 'Till then, I'd be a fool wishing for the day And I can change the world I would be the sunlight in your universe You would think my love was really something good Baby, if I could change the world Baby, if I could change the world I could change the world I would be the sunlight in your universe You would think my love was really something good Baby, if I could change the world Baby, if I could change the world Baby, if I could change the world Eric Clapton
CME_MINI:ES1!
by POWERFUL_TRADERS
ES/SPX Morning Update Jan 20th.... *Futures Closes At 1PM ET*NYSE is closed today, and ES will close early at 1pm—so tread lightly and no overtrading. Most professionals are not trading today. At 6pm on Thursday, a Failed Breakdown at 5974, triggering a long that took us all the way to 6043. As of now: • Hold runners; expect 6043-6016 to be a chop zone, with 6033 as the midpoint pivot • Reclaiming 6033 could target 6043, 6049, and 6066+ • If 6016 fails, look to sell down to 6004
CME_MINI:ESH2025
by ESMorg
MES: Ice and Fire Could Blow the U.S. Economy Off its CourseCME: Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures ( CME_MINI:MES1! ) #Microfutures In “A Song of Ice and Fire”, American author George Martin painted a mystical land where dragons spit out flame to destroy a whole city and a winter that last one hundred years. Game of Thrones, the popular HBO TV series, was adapted from Martin’s book. In 2025, we seem to be reliving these moments. California wildfires have claimed dozens of lives, burnt down thousands of homes, and caused an estimated $250 billion in damage. Meanwhile, Winter Storm Blair raged coast-to-coast, bringing heavy snow across the Great Plain to Mid-Atlantic. The storms shut down interstate highways, caused thousands of airport delays and racked up 350,000 power outages. At the time of this writing, Polar Vortex is bringing freezing temperature back to the lower 48 states. These weather perils are very destructive. In my opinion, the forces of nature could cause real damage to the entire U.S. economy. Firstly, we could see a rebound in inflation The Bureau of Statistics (BLS) reported that US CPI increased 0.4% in December and went up 2.9% year-over-year (YoY). Of which, the energy index decreased 0.5% YoY with energy commodities gasoline and fuel oil falling 3.4% and 13.1%, respectively. In contrast, energy services such as electricity increased 2.8% and natural gas (piped) rose 4.9% YoY. The chart shows a correlation between CPI and natural gas prices. The underlying logic is the U.S. economic reliance on natural gas. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), about 43.1% of the electricity in the country was generated by natural gas. In “Nat Gas: Trading the Weather”, I explained how cold temperatures increase natural gas demand for generating electricity and heating up homes. Higher natural gas prices affect not just the storm-hit regions, the entire country also bears a higher cost for energy services. Larger utility bills raise the cost of producing and distributing all goods and services. A leading indicator: When natural gas prices rise, inflation will likely go up. Conclusion: As natural gas went up sharply, we could expect a higher CPI for January. Secondly, we could see economic slowdown and higher unemployment Many businesses in the passage of winter storms suffered loss of sales. People in parts of Los Angles were evacuated. The total cost for insurance payout, loss of revenue, debris cleanup and rebuilding amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars. Total US GDP was $28 trillion last year, or about $2.3 trillion per month. A quick calculation shows that the weather perils could shave off 1/10th of the US national output for the month of January! Many S&P 500 companies are based in California or in the storm-hit regions. The actual damage to them will be revealed when they report quarterly earnings in April and May. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will report Q1 GDP on April 30th. US unemployment has been on the rise since mid-2023. In my opinion, the A.I. driven technological revolution is responsible for many High-Tech layoffs. On January 10th, the BLS released its nonfarm payroll report and showed that unemployment in the Information sector was 98,000 in December 2024, up from 86,000 a year ago. December is the busiest month for the Retail sector. However, retailers report total unemployment of 897,000 for the month, up 87,000 or 11% from December 2023. When the BLS updates its payroll report in January, I expect to see higher unemployment data. The month-to-month data could be even worse, as January is usually a slow month after the December holiday season. In addition, winter storms and wildfires would push more businesses to shut down and lay off employees. Finally, the uncertainty around economic policies under the new administration I expect President Trump to raise “ice and fire” on his own. If his first term is any guide, we would see plenty of drastic policy changes impacting various industries. Uncertainties are not well embraced in the world of investment. Any new policy initiative could bring the market to chaos when the news breaks, regardless of its long-term effect. During the first term, important policies (such as new tariff) were usually announced from Twitter tweets. This time around, they would likely come out of Truth Social tweets. Trading with Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures In my opinion, the U.S. stock market will face more volatility in the coming months. Key economic data could be disappointing for investors. • When the January nonfarm payroll report is released on February 7th, monthly employment data could trend lower, while unemployment rate ticks up. Signals of economic weakness could send the stock market lower. • When the January CPI data is released on February 12th, the headline inflation could move higher. If this is the case, the Fed is less likely to lower interest rates. The stock market will face downward pressure. • The Fed will meet on January 29th. According to CME Group FedWatch Tool, the futures market prices a Fed decision of no-change at 97.9%. However, the market consensus shows that Fed Funds rates could drop to 3.25-4.00% by December, indicating 1-4 rate cuts in 2025. The Fed has not committed to any further rate cut. www.cmegroup.com Given these scenarios, a trader could explore short-term opportunities by shorting the S&P 500 prior to the Big Report Dates. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report provides further support to this thinking. The latest data shows that, as of January 14th, Leverage Funds hold 151,543 long positions and 448,908 short positions for E-Mini S&P 500 futures. Despite the S&P nearing its all-time high, “Smart Money” already turns bearish. Shorts outweigh longs by a 3-to-1 ratio. • They are also bearish on Nasdaq 100, by a 1:2 long-short ratio (43,254 vs. 82,724) • This contrasts with the Dow contracts sharply. Leverage funds own Micro Dow by a 3:2 long-short ratio (17,591 vs. 10,051) during the same period. The MES contracts offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s benchmark S&P 500 futures (ES) contracts. Micro futures have a contract size of $5 times the S&P 500 index, which is 1/10th of the E-Mini contract. Micro contracts are very liquid. CME Group data shows that 1,095,979 contracts were traded on Thursday, January 16th. Open Interest at the end of the day was 129,228. Buying or selling 1 MES contract requires an initial margin of $1,525. With Friday closing price of 6,040, each March contract (MESH5) has a notional value of $30,200. Compared with investing in stocks, the futures contracts offer a built-in leverage of about 20 times (=30200/1525). Hypothetically, if S&P futures price falls 10% to 5,436, the price change of 604 points (6,040-5,436) will translate into $3,020 in profit for a short position, given each index point equal to $5 for the Micro contract. Using the initial margin of $1,525 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 198% (=3020/1525). The risk to short Micro S&P is that the US stock market continues its spectacular rally. To limit the downside risk, a trader could set up a stop-loss when entering a short position. For illustration, a short trade executed at 6,040 could be combined with a 6,200 stop. If the S&P goes up to 6,500, the trader’s position would be liquidated well before that. The maximum loss would be $800 (= (6200-6040) * $5). Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
2
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 1.20 - 1.24Market closed outside of Value after failing under 6074 - 54 HTF Edge. We are set to open inside 6064 - 23 Intraday Range unless market gaps under/over after Mondays Holiday but if we open inside it then that tells us we are over Value and there are two thing we can do here, continue grinding/balancing inside the Intraday Range and try to push towards/into above Edge ? Or do we find more selling over Value that would bring us back into/under VAH, if we get under VAH we would be under Daily Stops so that could trigger moves towards the Mean/VAL of the range. If we do get back inside the Value we could find support and holds around it BUT careful if we take out out and get under Value, that can bring in more weakness for lower targets where we would watch for any continuation. IF the strength from last week stays, for us to see any bigger prices out of this HTF Range we would need to hold over VAH and have a strong push into or over the above Edge that would stay over, until then we have December supply trapped over 6050 - 74 so we may stay under this area and most of December Supply is valued over 930 - 70s and we have January month end approaching which means if more size needs to lighten the bag that could trigger some lower destinations.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn