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WSP1! trade ideas

S&P futures ES1! .. or SPY parallel channels for this weekNot much to explain here...since so many these days can't last through even a half a paragraph....but, the two lines capture a decent amount of stuff and show the most recent action of today with the ping-pong whipsaw. Does it hit the question mark or stay in the lower parallel...it all depends on how Amazon and Apple can 'Tim cook-their books' and show the world that raging credit defaults and stagnating US with tensions going to hell around the globe doesn't matter. Would guess from Wed-Thursday that: Microsoft dips early and then trends sideways before a slight tilt down.... Meta just rips cause I have no idea how they achieve anything except cooking so... Qualcomm makes up a guidance that show modest 2nd half recovery after "The current tariff uncertainty is stabilized and the need for technology advancement outshines global tensions" or something to that affect. Amazon and Apple are a repeat of what I said before....Amazon will say they had strong buying heading into the tariffs but they see a slight pull back in consumer willingness to spend. Their cloud-whatever will somehow deliver them through the earnings call with some like 2.37% beat or some crap- but they will probably use 3 words that some algo doesn't want to hear and their stock will initially pop and then retrace the pop and pullback the equivalent move but to the downside. And lastly, Apple....don't care for them and will just say this- "We see strong foreign demand for the iPhone abroad with a high interest from India now that manufacturing will be shifted to that market(minus the fact it is only for the US market...all foreign production will be in China still and the "made in India" will be a quasi fulfillment slight of hand). While we are wading through the uncertainty of China-US relations in regard to tariffs- we see a sustained interest in iPhone sales with an increase in Apple cloud/whatever they call it- services maybe- from foreigners". So.......Apple goes initially down on some like margin metric being a miss or like revenue being like .8% off...but then Cook squeaks a fat steamer on the intercom which allows for the short reversal to the upside, which will kinda die out by next Monday. Or.....All the above get slammed and the puts go into the weekend happy. Check OptionCharts.io for the open interest for the 30th and may 1st...decent action on the put positions already hitting almost 3/4 million...also just be understanding that Wednesday may be window dressing day for monthly hedge fund/brokerage portfolio allocations...So if there are bad earnings they may dump stock to let their people know they aren't exposed as heavy...but if good earnings you may get a ripping short squeeze from them trying to load up their customers with the big 7...so be careful out there... Play with the money you have...and not with the money you can't afford to lose....for margins make marginal gains and massive losses when things go wrong- just see the Japanese Pensions unloading treasuries...some benefit...many lose... :) 5 min view: Addition of one more parallel on the 30 min: and a 5 min view of the one above on this week's lines:
CME_MINI:ES1!
by CYQOTEK
Understanding Moving Averages In TradingToday, we dive into a comprehensive guide on Moving Averages (MAs) — one of the most fundamental yet powerful tools in technical analysis. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, understanding how MAs work can help you better interpret market trends, identify potential entry and exit points, and smooth out price data for clearer decision-making. In this article, we’ll break down the different types of moving averages, how they’re calculated, when to use them, and common strategies that incorporate them into successful trading plans. 1️⃣ 1. What are Moving Averages? Moving averages (MAs) are statistical calculations used in technical analysis to smooth out price data and identify trends over a specific period. They help traders filter out short-term fluctuations and focus on the overall direction of an asset's price. 2️⃣ 2. Importance Moving averages (MAs) play a crucial role in technical analysis by helping traders identify trends, reduce noise, and make informed trading decisions. Here’s why they are important: Trend Identification: MAs help traders determine the overall direction of the market. Dynamic Support & Resistance: Traders watch key MAs (e.g., 50-day and 200-day) to anticipate price reactions. Trading Signals & Crossovers: Detects potential changes in trend direction. Golden Cross (Bullish): When a short-term MA (e.g., 50-day) crosses above a long-term MA (e.g., 200-day), signaling a potential uptrend. Death Cross (Bearish): When a short-term MA crosses below a long-term MA, indicating a possible downtrend. Momentum Confirmation: A steeply rising MA suggests strong bullish momentum, while a declining MA signals bearish strength. 3️⃣ 3. Moving Averages Types Simple Moving Average (SMA): Calculates the simple average of past prices. Exponential Moving Average (EMA): Prioritizes recent prices for faster response. Weighted Moving Average (WMA): Prioritizes recent prices for faster response. Hull Moving Average (HMA): Smooths trends while reducing lag effectively. Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA): Averages data with less sensitivity to noise. Triangular Moving Average (TMA): Applies a double smoothing to price data. Adaptive Moving Average (AMA): Adapts dynamically to changing market trends. Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA): Adjusts speed based on volatility and noise. Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA): Uses dual EMAs to reduce lag in trends. Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA): Enhances trend detection with triple EMAs. Arnaud Legoux Moving Average (ALMA): Minimizes lag while improving price smoothness. Variable Moving Average (VMA): Adjusts its value based on market conditions. Volume-Weighted Moving Average (VWMA): Weights price data according to trading volume Jurik Moving Average (JMA): A highly smooth and responsive MA that reduces lag and noise. Fractal Adaptive Moving Average (FRAMA): Adapts to market fractal geometry, adjusting speed based on volatility. Zero Lag Exponential Moving Average (ZLAMA): A variation of EMA that eliminates lag by compensating for past price movements. 4️⃣ 4. Calculations Moving averages are fundamental tools in technical analysis, helping to smooth price data and highlight trends. However, not all moving averages are created equal—each type is calculated differently, affecting how it responds to market movement. In this section, we’ll focus on the formulas behind a few of the most relevant and widely used types: the Simple Moving Average (SMA), Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and Weighted Moving Average (WMA). a. Simple Moving Average (SMA) The Simple Moving Average (SMA) calculates the average price of an asset over a specified period. Lag: High (delayed response to price changes) Best for: Identifying long-term trends and support/resistance SMA = P1 + P2... + ... + Pn / n Where: P1 + P2... + ... + Pn: are the prices (usually closing prices) of the last n periods. n: is the number of periods on average. It gives an equal weight to all prices in the period. ta.sma(close, length) b. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) The Weighted Moving Average (WMA) assigns higher weights to more recent prices, reducing lag and increasing responsiveness compared to SMA. Lag: Lower than SMA but higher than EMA Best for: Short-term trading strategies EMA = (Pt × α) + EMAy × (1 − α) Where: Pt: Current price (usually the closing price) EMAy: Previous period’s EMA α (alpha): Smoothing factor = 2 / (n + 1) n: Number of periods in the EMA It gives more weight to recent prices, reducing the lag compared to SMA. ema = ta.ema(close, length) c. Weighted Moving Average (WMA) The Weighted Moving Average (WMA) assigns higher weights to more recent prices, reducing lag and increasing responsiveness compared to SMA. Lag: Lower than SMA but higher than EMA Best for: Short-term trading strategies WMA = (P1 × w1 + P2 × w2 + ... + Pn × wn) / (w1 + w2 + ... + wn) Where: P1...Pn: Prices (usually closing) over the last n periods w1...wn: Weights assigned to each period (most recent gets the highest weight) n: Number of periods It reacts faster than SMA but smoother than EMA due to its linear weighting. wma = ta.wma(close, length) While there are many variations of moving averages available, the formulas covered here—SMA, EMA, and WMA—represent the most essential and commonly applied in both trading platforms and manual analysis. Understanding how these are calculated gives deeper insight into their strengths, limitations, and the types of signals they provide. 5️⃣ 5. Choosing the Right MA Choosing the Right Moving Average for Your Trading Style Choosing the right moving average (MA) depends on your trading style, time horizon, and goals. Different types of MAs have varying levels of sensitivity to price movements, so the choice should align with your trading strategy. Here’s how you can choose the best moving average based on your trading approach: Short-Term Traders (Day Traders, Scalpers) Exponential Moving Average (EMA): The EMA reacts faster to price changes, which is crucial for short-term traders who need to enter and exit positions quickly. Simple Moving Average (SMA): While less sensitive than the EMA, shorter-term SMAs (like the 5 or 10-period) can still be useful for spotting very quick trend changes. Hull Moving Average (HMA): Offers a good balance between smoothness and responsiveness, reducing lag while staying sensitive to price changes. Medium-Term Traders (Swing Traders) Simple Moving Average (SMA): Longer SMAs (like the 50-period or 100-period) are effective in identifying the general trend over a few days or weeks. Exponential Moving Average (EMA): The 20-period or 50-period EMA can work well for medium-term traders, providing a smoother trend signal while still responding to changes. Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA): The SMMA gives a smoother trend and reduces the noise, which is ideal for swing traders who look for stable trends over a couple of weeks. Long-Term Traders (Position Traders, Investors) Simple Moving Average (SMA): Longer SMAs like the 100-period or 200-period SMA are perfect for long-term traders and investors. These averages provide a clear indication of the long-term trend and act as reliable support and resistance levels. Triangular Moving Average (TMA): TMA smooths out price movements even more and is useful for capturing long-term trends. It's slower, but highly effective for those trading in longer time frames. Trend-Following Traders Exponential Moving Average (EMA): As trend-following traders rely on capturing long trends, EMAs with longer periods (50, 100, 200) are a solid choice, providing smoother signals with less noise. Hull Moving Average (HMA): The HMA reduces lag, making it a great choice for trend-following traders who want to react quickly to changes while staying in the trend. 6️⃣ 6. How To Use Moving Averages Moving averages (MAs) are one of the most widely used tools in technical analysis due to their simplicity and effectiveness in identifying trends, smoothing price data, and signaling potential market reversals. They are used by traders to help spot entry and exit points, determine the direction of the market, and define dynamic support and resistance levels. Here’s a deeper dive into how moving averages are used in trading: Identifying Trends Uptrend: When the price is consistently above the moving average, it indicates a bullish trend. The longer the period of the moving average, the smoother it becomes, showing the overall direction of the market. Downtrend: Conversely, when the price is consistently below the moving average, it indicates a bearish trend. Sideways/Consolidation Market: When the price hovers around the moving average without a clear direction, the market is often in a consolidation phase. Support and Resistance Levels Support Levels: When the price is above a moving average and then pulls back to touch it, the moving average often acts as a support level. Traders anticipate the price to bounce off the moving average and resume its uptrend. Resistance Levels: When the price is below a moving average and then rallies back to it, the moving average often acts as a resistance level. This resistance can lead to a reversal or consolidation as the price struggles to break above the MA. 7️⃣ 7. Golden Cross & Death Cross One of the most well-known signals involving moving averages is the crossover of short-term and long-term moving averages. These crossovers are used to signal potential trend changes and provide traders with entry and exit signals. Golden Cross: Occurs when a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average. Death Cross: Occurs when a short-term moving average crosses below a long-term moving average. Golden Cross This is considered a bullish signal, indicating that an uptrend may be starting or strengthening. When it happens: A common example of a Golden Cross is when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. The short-term trend is gaining strength and could signal the beginning of a sustained uptrend. Why it works: The Golden Cross indicates that recent prices are moving higher and that momentum is accelerating. It suggests that buying pressure is overpowering selling pressure. Death Cross This is considered a bearish signal, indicating that a downtrend may be imminent or already in place. When it happens: A typical example of a Death Cross is when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, signaling that the short-term trend is weakening and a bearish shift may be in play. Why it works: The Death Cross shows that short-term price movements are declining relative to longer-term trends, and it indicates increasing selling pressure. 8️⃣ 8. MA Strategies Trend Following The trend following strategy focuses on identifying and capitalizing on strong price movements in one direction. Trend Identification: Moving averages are used to identify whether the market is trending up or down. The most common trend-following strategy is to buy when the price is above a key moving average and sell when it’s below. Trend Confirmation: Once the trend is identified using MAs, traders can enter trades that align with the trend. The idea is to "ride the wave" of the trend as long as possible until there is evidence of a reversal or loss of momentum. MA Crossover Moving average crossovers are one of the most popular and widely used strategies in technical analysis. Crossovers occur when a short-term moving average crosses over a longer-term moving average, signaling potential trend changes. Short-Term Crossovers: These are typically faster and more sensitive, which can help traders spot quicker market changes. Short-term crossovers tend to generate more signals, but they can also lead to more false signals in choppy or sideways markets. (9 EMA & 21 EMA Strategy) Long-Term Crossovers: These are slower and less frequent but tend to produce more reliable trend signals. Long-term crossovers filter out market noise and provide a clearer view of the overall market direction. (The 50/200-Day Moving Average Strategy) Mean Reversion Mean reversion is based on the idea that prices tend to return to their average over time. How to Identify Overextended Prices Overbought and Oversold Conditions: When the price is significantly above or below a moving average, it may be overextended. In such cases, traders expect the price to revert to the moving average. Using MAs as a Benchmark: Traders can use longer-term MAs, like the 50-day or 200-day moving averages, to identify overextended conditions. If the price moves significantly above or below the moving average, it is often seen as an opportunity for mean reversion trades. Trading Moving Average Pullbacks Pullbacks: A pullback is when the price moves against the prevailing trend, temporarily retracing toward the moving average before resuming its original trend. Buying Pullbacks in Uptrends: In an uptrend, traders look to buy when the price pulls back to a moving average like the 50-day or 200-day MA, assuming the trend will continue. Selling Pullbacks in Downtrends: In a downtrend, traders look for selling opportunities when the price temporarily rallies back to a moving average, anticipating a return to the downtrend. 9️⃣ 9. Key Takeaways Moving Averages (MAs) smooth price data, helping identify trends, entry, and exit points. Trend Following Strategies use MAs to align trades with the market’s direction (uptrend, downtrend). Support & Resistance: MAs act as dynamic levels where prices may reverse or consolidate. Crossovers: - Golden Cross (50/200-day crossover) signals a bullish trend. - Death Cross (50/200-day crossover) signals a bearish trend. - Short-Term Crossovers (9/21 EMA) provide faster signals for active traders. Mean Reversion Strategy: Prices often revert to their moving average after being overextended. Pullback Trading: Enter trades when prices pull back to key MAs during trends. Combining Indicators: - RSI confirms MAs’ buy or sell signals. - MACD crossover strengthens trend direction confirmation. - Bollinger Bands help assess volatility, confirming price targets and trends. Timeframe Selection: Short-term traders use quicker MAs (e.g., 9 EMA), while long-term traders prefer slower MAs (e.g., 200-day SMA). Best MA Settings: For trend-following, use 50/200-day MAs; for short-term, use 9/21 EMAs. Stay sharp, stay ahead, and let’s make those moves. Until next time, happy trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CandelaCharts
Tariffs, and Tumult: Wall Street Waits on Super WednesdayHello everyone, it’s April 30, 2025. The TVC:DJI just closed its sixth consecutive green session, with markets clinging to hope as rumors swirl of a first tariff deal—possibly with India—though nothing is confirmed. That tiny breadcrumb of optimism was enough to boost sentiment late in yesterday’s session, even if volatility is dipping below 25% and investor enthusiasm seems to be fading in lockstep. U.S. macro data continues to paint a picture of “not great, but not terrible.” Consumer confidence and job openings (JOLTS) came in below expectations but not disastrously so, prompting markets to collectively shrug and declare everything “less worse than feared.” It’s a strategy now: ignore bad data as long as it isn’t apocalyptic. As earnings roll in, companies are split between those who pretend the tariff storm is “manageable” (hello, NASDAQ:COKE ) and those flying blind through economic fog ( NYSE:UPS , Snap, and Super Micro—who might be losing a major client named Nvidia). The overall takeaway? Visibility is garbage, and most companies are bracing rather than building. All eyes are now on today’s so-called Super Wednesday, packed with economic data (U.S. GDP, PCE, ADP jobs, Chicago PMI) and mega-earnings from NASDAQ:MSFT and NASDAQ:META . But as usual, expectations may outpace reality. Markets often dream of clarity and wake up to more noise. Meanwhile, China flashed its first big red light: a manufacturing PMI of 49, signaling contraction—the lowest in two years. No shock, considering their ongoing trade war with the U.S., which seems to be giving the global economy the flu. On the political front, Trump celebrated his 100 days in office with a campaign-style detour to Detroit, throwing shade at Fed Chair Jerome Powell while declaring the economy in perfect health (despite the worst market performance since Nixon’s early days). He promised tax cuts, again, while doubling down on trade threats. Powell, of course, is just trying to survive the week. Oil briefly dipped under $60 as markets considered the broader implications of economic warfare, gold sits at $3,311, and Bitcoin hovers around $95,000—looking resilient despite the madness. As for corporate earnings, Starbucks missed on sales due to weak U.S. demand, Pfizer beat on EPS but saw revenue fall, and Visa continues to rake in profits as Americans keep spending like inflation isn’t real. Novartis crushed it but got no love from the market because apparently, +22% net income just isn’t sexy enough. In short: chaos remains king. Markets seem oddly calm on the surface, but under the hood, it’s still all about tariffs, Trump tweets, and the fantasy that maybe—just maybe—some clarity will come today. Don’t hold your breath. Enjoy the ride, and see you tomorrow for more market mayhem.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SmartApingAI
1
S&P 500 – iSpark Catches Clean Breakout from 5330 to 5700📢 The iSpark Indicator caught a strong breakout on the S&P 500 Index (4H chart) around the 5330 level , which was followed by a sequence of bullish moves — now reaching the 5700 mark. 🔍 Currently, price is testing the 10 EMA at 5710 , which is acting as a short-term resistance . A clear break and sustained move above 5710 could trigger the next leg higher toward 5750–5775 . 🎯 Holding positions? Stay in with a stop-loss at 5600 to manage risk. 📉 Fundamental caution: As always, keep an eye on macro headlines — unexpected global turmoil or sharp trade commentary (e.g., tariffs) may influence momentum 💡 This entire setup was captured early using the iSpark Indicator , designed to detect high-conviction breakouts across timeframes. 📬 Premium users interested in testing the iSpark Indicator can DM me for a hands-on walkthrough. #SP500 #ES1! #Breakout #iSpark #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #EMA #TrendFollowing #SPX #TradingView #SNP500
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ispark4u
Why I Hesitate on Long Wick Candles (and How I Trade Through It)In today’s live trading review, I highlight one of the key challenges I face when trading the ES: I don’t always feel confident executing during long wick days. So how do I deal with that? Simple: reduce risk and stick to the framework. Watch as I walk you through this session, break down the setup, and share how you can identify and study your own trading weaknesses — so you can grow stronger, one trade at a time. #OneCandlestickAtATime #LiveTrading #ESFutures #TradingPsychology
CME_MINI:MES1!Education
by MarketsByLee_
Stock market, fundamental highlights to watch this weekWhile equity markets have rebounded from their low point in early April, this week, straddling the end of April and the beginning of May, sees the release of top-tier fundamental data. The trade war is the new dominant fundamental factor. But the market is most interested in the impact on US inflation and the US labor market. The US PCE inflation report on Wednesday April 30 and the NFP report on Friday May 2 should therefore be kept under review. Only the path of trade diplomacy can keep the trajectory of US disinflation intact and thus enable the Federal Reserve to resume cutting its federal funds rate for a sound reason (i.e. inflation trending towards 2% and a stable unemployment rate of around 4% of the working population). This resumption of the Fed funds rate cut is essential to validate the S&P500's major low on the 4800 point support. Here are 4 reasons why we believe the trade war is unlikely to cause a second wave of inflation. The PCE index on Wednesday April 30 should see a resumption of the decline in the nominal inflation rate towards 2%. Reason 1: The first all-out trade war between China and the USA between 2017 and 2019 did not cause an inflationary wave, and even ended with a trade agreement between China and the USA in December 2019 (Phase One Trade Deal) Reason 2: The trade war directly concerns agricultural products and manufactured goods, but no services are directly affected. Services account for 70% of the calculation of US inflation rates, and the USA is a service economy accounting for 80% of its GDP. Reason 3: With the risk of a global economic slowdown against the backdrop of the trade war, the price of oil has plummeted on the stock market, and this will have a strong downward impact on the nominal inflation rate, with a direct + indirect effect estimated at 10% in the calculation of inflation rates. Reason 4: Disinflation in the real estate sector is structural, accounting for 30% of the inflation calculation, and has no connection with the trade war. The NFP report on Friday May 2 will enable us to assess whether or not the trade war has already begun to damage the US labor market. This is the ultimate barometer for assessing the likelihood of an economic recession. CONCLUSION: this week, we'll be keeping a very close eye on US PCE inflation, the NFP report and, of course, all the news surrounding trade diplomacy and the Trump/Powell relationship (ahead of the FED's decision on Wednesday May 7). 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CME_MINI:ES1!
by Swissquote
S&P500: Rebound or Bull Trap?Over the past week, the S&P500 weekly chart showed a key technical signal: the formation of a bullish engulfing. This pattern emerged after several weeks of strong monthly bearish pressure, suggesting a potential reversal attempt or, at the very least, a technical rebound. Analyzing the key levels, the price reacted inside a major demand area (visible on the monthly timeframe), positioned between 5,450 and 5,500 points. The reaction from this zone reinforces the validity of the engulfing and suggests the market could now aim for the first resistance targets around 5,600 - 5,650. Further upside targets are located at 5,837 and 6,023, previously marked as high-confluence zones. From an institutional positioning perspective, the latest COT Report (April 22, 2025) reveals interesting developments: Commercials (big players) increased their long contracts by +22,226 units, showing strong interest in upside protection. Non-Commercials (speculators) also increased their longs (+8,754), but added even more to their shorts (+20,667). The Net Positioning for Non-Commercials remains negative but has stabilized at less extreme levels compared to March, suggesting a possible phase of accumulation or preparation for a sentiment shift. 📊 The Net Positions chart shows a reduction in net short pressure — a warning sign for those still heavily short. Summary: The weekly engulfing is a technical signal not to underestimate. We are trading within a strong monthly demand zone. COT data suggests a decrease in bearish pressure, although not yet a full sentiment reversal. However, caution is necessary: a firm break below 5,450 would invalidate the bullish signal and reopen the path toward corrections at 5,200 and 5,000. Current Strategy: Slight bullish bias above 5,500. Short-term target: 5,600 → 5,650. Next targets: 5,837 and 6,023. Invalidation level: weekly close below 5,450. Watching the price action around key resistance levels will be crucial: the market will decide whether this rebound consolidates or becomes just a trap for new buyers.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Weekly Chart Shows Buyers Holding, But Resistance TightensMarket Overview: Futures are hovering at a crucial zone. In this update, we analyze the evolving trend structure, dissect price action at Fib resistance, and highlight what levels matter most heading into the next session. Bearish/Bullish Trend Analysis Trend Condition: Bullish Trends: 8 Bearish Trends: 6 Overview: The market is currently bullish, with 8 trend lines signaling upward momentum. However, the presence of 6 bearish trends shows that mixed conditions remain across different timeframes. Price Action and Momentum Zones Current Price and Change: Currently, the S&P 500 Futures are at 5,520.25, down by 32.25 points or -0.58%. Market Behavior: The weekly chart shows consolidation just below major resistance, with sellers maintaining pressure near the 23.6% retracement zone. Price action remains choppy after several weeks of volatility. Momentum Zones: Price is stuck within a corrective zone between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels. In this context, these zones act as countertrend resistance, and bulls need a clean breakout above 5,537 to shift sentiment more decisively. Fib Retracement Levels Current Position Relative to Levels: The market is currently just below the 23.6% retracement level. Key Fibonacci Levels: 23.6% → 5,537.68 38.2% → 5,148.66 50.0% → 4,834.25 61.8% → 4,519.84 Analysis: A clear breakout above 5,537.68 would indicate a more meaningful recovery attempt. Failure here could send price back toward the 5,148 or 4,834 retracement levels if momentum fades. Overall Market Interpretation While the broader trend is still bullish on this timeframe, the failure to reclaim 5,537 suggests caution. Consolidation below major Fib levels implies that buyers are struggling to regain control. A breakout or breakdown from this range will set the next directional tone. Summary The S&P 500 Futures are showing mixed strength early in the week. The broader trend remains bullish overall, but the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level is acting as resistance. This level will likely determine whether consolidation continues or a stronger move higher begins.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by traderspro_charts
S&P 500 E-mini Futures: Bullish Momentum Meets Key Resistance📈 Technical Analysis: S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES1!) – April 2025 🚀 Market Structure & Price Action for US500 The daily chart shows the S&P 500 E-mini Futures in a bullish recovery after a significant correction. The recent rally has pushed price back toward previous swing highs, an area likely to contain resting buy-side liquidity. This move suggests that the market is currently in a markup phase, but is now approaching a critical resistance zone where profit-taking and counter-trend activity may emerge. 🧠 Wyckoff Perspective From a Wyckoff methodology standpoint, the recent price action resembles a classic accumulation-to-markup transition. The sharp selloff in March and early April appears to have formed a selling climax (SC) followed by an automatic rally (AR) and a secondary test (ST). The current advance could be interpreted as a sign of strength (SOS), but the proximity to previous highs raises the risk of an upthrust (UTAD) or a bull trap if supply emerges. 🌊 Liquidity & Potential Pullback As price trades into the prior highs, it is likely "eating" buy-side liquidity—triggering stops and breakout orders. This process often leads to a liquidity sweep, where price briefly exceeds resistance before reversing as large players offload positions. If the market fails to sustain above these highs, a pullback or even a reversal could be initiated, especially if volume and momentum wane. 🌐 Market Sentiment & Fundamentals Current sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with the S&P 500 E-mini trading above 5,500 and recent sessions showing resilience despite mixed earnings and macroeconomic uncertainty. The broader market is supported by expectations of stable Fed policy and robust corporate earnings, but there are persistent concerns about inflation and global growth. According to Markets Insider, the ES futures are up 0.59% recently, reflecting a positive but not euphoric tone. However, as noted by Investing.com, there are signs the market could be setting up for a reversal if bulls fail to maintain momentum. 🛠️ Trade Ideas 🟢 Bullish Scenario: If price breaks and holds above the previous highs with strong volume and closes, consider a long entry targeting the next psychological resistance (e.g., 5,700–5,800). Place stops just below the breakout level to manage risk. This would confirm continued demand and a potential extension of the markup phase. 🔴 Bearish Scenario: If price fails to hold above the highs and forms a reversal pattern (e.g., bearish engulfing, upthrust), look for a short entry targeting the first support zone (e.g., 5,300–5,200). Stops should be placed above the failed breakout. This would align with a Wyckoff upthrust after distribution and a likely liquidity sweep. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading futures involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Please conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by fxtraderanthony
3
ANALISI TECNICA MERCATI AMERICANIHappy Saturday to all traders! In this video we analyze the American market and see what we can expect in the coming weeks. Recently, the markets have reacted positively to the statements of President Trump, who made it clear that he has no intention of removing Jerome Powell from the leadership of the Federal Reserve. This reassurance helped to allay concerns about the independence of the Fed, leading to a rally in the main indices: the Nasdaq gained 2.3%, the S&P 500 1.4% and the Dow Jones 1%.​ In addition, the administration has shown signs of openness towards reducing trade tariffs with China, fueling investor optimism. Despite the recent reassurances, uncertainties related to the Fed's monetary policy remain. Powell stressed that, although inflation is falling, there is no rush to proceed with further rate cuts, maintaining a cautious approach. Investors will therefore need to carefully monitor the upcoming macroeconomic data, especially those related to inflation and employment, which could influence the Fed's future decisions. Next week promises to be decisive for the US stock markets. Although the recent statements by Trump and Powell have helped improve investor sentiment, the presence of technical resistance and uncertainty about the Fed's future policies suggest caution. An upward break of key levels could confirm the continuation of the positive trend, while signs of weakness could indicate the need for a consolidation phase. Have a good weekend everyone and happy trading. Thanks Ciao Mauro I will mention my three rules that I constantly cultivate: Patience, discipline and always have a plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Mauro_Mariani
Bullish Price Delivery on MESIn this week's analysis of the ES futures contract, it still looks reasonable to expect bullish price action. Given the price delivery over the past few weeks, it appears that large institutions are continuing to push the market higher — a strong signal to maintain a bullish bias! Key levels I'm watching: Bullish target: 5,590 (with potential for even higher moves) Support zones: First support around 5,497 Stronger support around 5,447 in a worst-case scenario While it's important to recognize that we may be approaching a "high" within the larger downtrend, from a short-term perspective (this week), I expect these support levels to hold and for bullish momentum to continue. Of course, as with all speculation, we’ll monitor closely and react accordingly — always studying price action one candlestick at a time!
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by MarketsByLee_
ES UpdateWe have an open gap above and an open gap below. I assume the one above will fill first on this rate cut pump until POwell (and/or inflation numbers) squashes it then it fills the gap below. Everything is green right now, index futures, cryptos, and even gold but I assume that's because it's a commodity not because of speculative hedging. All otehr commodities are up as well. Flying out to WA tomorrow, no position. Also, RSI is overbought on the 3 hr so be careful. This may be a melt up though. I do expect the gap below to fill eventually, but as we know, sometimes it takes some time. Probably not trading next week, good luck.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
1
How do I know if a day will be bullish?"Daily Bias" is one of the most asked questions by traders! You’ve probably heard someone say: “If only I knew where the candle would expand, I’d be rich!” Well, today I’m sharing a framework that can help you start answering that exact question. 🚶🏽‍♂️Walk with me as we break down the ES Futures Daily Candle for April 24, 2024. By the end of this video, you'll have a solid starting point to study and apply this method— #OneCandlestickAtATime
CME_MINI:MES1!Education
by MarketsByLee_