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WSP1! trade ideas

Equity Prices Continue LowerAfter testing all time high levels in the ES contract on February 19th, equity markets have seen significant selling pressure which continued today while the precious metals saw a boost higher. One of the volatility drivers traders are seeing is coming from global tariff policies from the U.S. and many other nations adding uncertainty to the strength of these markets. Over the next few weeks, traders will learn more about the implementation of these tariffs and where the equity markets and precious metals may settle. Over the last few weeks, the CME Fed Watch Tool has also shifted, and now is pricing in a 44% chance of a rate cut at the May 7th meeting of 25 basis points, where previous expectations were to see the a pause for the May meeting. This week offers a big slate of economic data as well, including ADP Nonfarm Payroll, Initial Jobless Claims, Unemployment Data, and the Fed Monetary Policy Report. This economic data could have an effect on the Fed’s stance on the economy and their plans for rate cuts moving forward. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by CME_Group
ES/SPY George W Bush PatternA thousand scenarios could unfold with price action. But if were to guess (which is exactly what I am doing (from experience), ES/SPY will take the longest and most torturous and yet most powerful route to form a bottom and pave the way for the big yearly move up...forming a W pattern. (no good old genius George has nothing to do with it). None the less the W will take the longest and be the most powerful proving a long and well crafted W pattern. The other alternatives are a multi day or multi week more shallow bottom essentially forming a series of smaller W's or my guess (as mentioned) which is a large W with higher top to bottom (middle of the W) movements, or of course we could just get a V bottom which means the only ones who really succeed most are the one who just buy and hold.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by tbuckle
1
ES/ Mag7 ChartHere is we can observe the broadening out of the stock concentration we have observed for the past 4 years in the Mag7 which at its peak reached 35% of the market. To read this chart correctly. 1: This is ES/Mag 7 relative strength. It is full ES 500- MAG 7- Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nividia Tesla. 2. When this chart goes up, it means concentration is broadening out i.e more investment into more of the SP500 other/ smaller companies and less into Mag 7. 2.1 When this chart goes Down, it ca signify A: Heavy selling in Mag 7 companies. OR B: Heavy buying in the broader set of S&P500 companies. OR Both at the same time.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by timdug
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 2.23 - 2.28.25Last Week : Globex opened inside the Mean of HTF Ranges Value where we found balance to start the week, we had supply over 6144 so any pushes over which were made during afterhours kept coming back into the Mean but failing to continue tag VAL which kept the market stable and balancing over until we had RTH Volume make a push over 44 which held and brought in more buying to test previous ATH areas at 6160s but market needed to hold over 60s after such a move to bring in anymore strength, instead we came back in, trapped more volume over 44s towards the end of the week once we flushed into VAL, holding under 44 into the end of the week forced all the trapped volume over to sell out which started taking stops giving the move lower we were looking for that kept triggering continuation with every lower area it hit to finish the week right at lower VAH inside the RTH Cost Basis that was build on top of the gap down that failed to continue during beginning of the Month. This Week : A bit tricky week to start here or should I say finish this Month off as we are heading into last week of February we have few things to look at here. Yes we had strong selling, trapped a lot of buy volume this month over 6050s which is not getting the upside and time to pay or close has come, we finished last week with a strong sell back into 6054 - 5933 HTF Range which tells us that as long as we stay under the upper Edge could bring in more weakness and we should see continuation inside and towards lower targets BUT question this week is will it come during the beginning of the week or will February RTH Cost Basis make us wait until later in the week, of course that is IF more weakness comes at all right ? For now what we know is we have close Friday inside 6064 - 6023 Intraday Range, we have a cost basis here under 6034 which could possibly prove to be good enough to give us some sort of a hold/balance at/over it to start the week, if this will be the case then we need to watch out for slower action again and some back and forth in this 6020 - 40s area, with any pushes towards 43 - 54 - 58 areas to be possibly met with weakness so need to watch out for price not sticking around there too long or not continuing over and instead returning back towards VAH into that cost basis. How long this area would hold is for us to find out but we don't have much market moving data to start the week, unless whatever news from Friday or this weekend will be enough to give us bigger moves to start the week. IF we do hold over to start the week I would still watch out for thinking bigger bounces from here back over upper Edge as we could find more sell volume come in Tuesday or Wednesday as long as we hold under 6050s that can bring in more selling closer to Month End as that will force more size to close out above positions. If we do have strong volume and can open under VAL or get under 6023 - 18 area and hold under then that would change things and could bring in more selling sooner. Either scenario if we get under this cost basis we would be looking for continuation towards lower Globex Cost basis into VAL and that area may fold with volume and can give us pushes out of Value again for the lower Edge which would be the spot to watch again for any more weakness. And of course for any strength to the upside from here we would need to climb back into the Edge and start holding over 6054 area AND see strong push over 70s that can hold over, until then really need to be careful with looking for more upside from 40 - 50s as selling could come and push us lower. If we do start holding inside/around the Edge then will need to be careful looking for too much downside from here as we need to keep holding under 50s to really bring in that weakness and cause more selling, if selling doesnt come this 6064 - 23 Intraday Range could become our balance range until we will be ready to accept above or below it which would cause back and forth inside it with pushes out coming back in.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
4
Accelerating Losses Puts Uptrend Under ThreatTraders should be alert to the risk of an accelerated downside move in S&P 500 futures. After hitting record highs just two weeks ago, the price action has deteriorated rapidly with an initial break of minor uptrend support followed by sustained selling on rising volumes. The 50DMA has given way, as has the February 3 low, leaving the price teetering on the November 2023 uptrend. RSI (14) and MACD continue to trend lower, reinforcing a bearish bias. If the uptrend fails, bears may target a retest of 5808—a level that has been well-contested in recent months. That aligns with downtrend support extending from the December highs. Beyond that, the 200DMA looms as a key test for those eyeing a deeper pullback. Alternatively, a bounce from the uptrend would confirm it as support, creating a setup where longs could be established above with a stop beneath for protection. A move above 5935.5 would be an early bullish signal, with a break opening the door for a push towards 6000 and the 50DMA. Good luck! DS
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by FOREXcom
Combined US Indexes - Incoming Break or Bounce ?From the previously marked timeline on 18 Feb 2025, just days later, you see the combined US Indexes plummet to cut through the middle decision box (purple), and extrude out below. This formed the double top second peak in essence, and the days following just closed at a two month low. While this might appear Bearish, it is worth noting the lower tails in previous candles which are followed by rallies to the upper resistance. Would this happen the third time? I would beg to differ... In fact, marked out is a critical support point which should be tested in early March. At that point (yellow ellipse), there is a confluence of a previous trend change support, the current TDST and just below that the larger consolidation range support. While the RoVD is slightly bullish, the MACD is dipping with MACD in bearish lower half, and the signal line tapering down towards the boundary into bear territory. In summary, it looks slightly bearish to the critical support point. From there, it would be good to see if it bounces or it breaks down.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Auguraltrader