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WSP1! trade ideas

ES Premarket Update3hr MFI is headed quickly to oversold, and the dollar index is bouncing back a little. FUtures are also green. I expect the market to bounce up when MFI gets oversold, so possibly a gap up which sells off then market goes back up? Gold trade is on hold until currency direction is determined. The dollar will eventually break though, so holding the small position I bought yesterday morning..... that way I'll watch gold. We'll see where that goes.... US dollar is oversold on 3hr and daily charts, so there's a chance it will bounce back up.... or maybe it just goes into full tank mode and ignores indicators. Hard market to judge.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
4
Are We Witnessing a Black Swan Event?I’ve spent most of the day digging through charts and studying past crashes — because what we’re living through right now might be a once-in-a-decade opportunity. This current market crash feels eerily close to a black swan event. No one really expected Trump to push tariffs this far, and the consequences are already rippling through global markets. If this escalates into true economic isolation, the effects could be both tremendous and long-lasting. That said, there’s another possibility: This might just be a blip in history — a bold negotiating tactic that works out, shocks the system temporarily, and fades away. There’s even speculation this could mirror the 1989 crash, with some analysts warning of a potential 20% drop by Monday. If that happens, I’d rather not be frozen by fear. I want to act with intention. I want my plan in place and my orders ready. Before I share stock ideas I believe can outperform in the long run… Let’s first walk through what I believe might be playing out — at least for now. (Keep in mind, these theses can change fast.) Before the crash, it looked like a replay of 2022: Markets were clearly overvalued and due for a correction — back then, it was driven by regional bank failures, and the Fed quickly stepped in to stabilize things. But now, selling pressure is accelerating. This looks less like 2022 and more like 2020 — where markets broke down in response to a larger, fast-moving, global crisis. Even though we’re seeing similarities, things can shift very quickly. We still haven’t seen key reversal signs — like a Doji candle — and more importantly, there’s been no intervention yet from the government or global forces. Until that happens, panic may continue to snowball. And as we know from history, panic doesn’t operate on logic. Source: 📚 2020 Stock Market Crash en.wikipedia.org
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WallSt007
Q1 Recap and What’s AheadThe first quarter of 2025 saw significant price movements in many different asset classes. Traders saw equity indices broadly selling off with the ES contract falling near 10% from the highs while Gold continued to push higher to all time high levels. There are many factors contributing to the price movement, including a shift in the administration in the U.S., geopolitical tensions globally, and critical tariff announcements looming. There are also questions about the Fed environment and the strategy that will be implemented this year to begin cutting interest rates. Looking at the CME Fed Watch Tool today, it seems the market is pricing another rate pause for the May meeting and a near 60% chance of rate cuts coming in June. There is a large slate of economic date coming out for the rest of the week that could add great volatility to this uncertain market, including: Tariff Announcement Initial Jobless Claims Nonfarm Payroll Unemployment Rate Average Hourly Earnings This morning, traders saw the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change come in higher than expected and the markets are having a mixed reaction. President Trump will be speaking at 3:00 P.M. Central Time to introduce the tariff plan and how it will be rolled out, adding a level of clarity for the market moving forward into Q2. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by CME_Group
S&P 500 Futures Plunge: Bearish Dominance Unabated in MarketBearish/Bullish Trend Analysis Trend Condition: Bullish Trend Condition: 0 Bearish Trend Condition: 14 Analysis: The market remains strongly bearish as indicated by all 14 trend lines being red. There are no bullish trends present, suggesting persistent downward pressure. Price Action and Momentum Zones Closing Price and Change: The S&P 500 E-mini Futures closed at 4,902.50, down by 194.25 points (-3.81%). Daily Market Behavior: Today's sharp decline is consistent with the ongoing bearish trend, with no signs of a reversal or slowdown in the selling momentum. Momentum Zones: The market is trending downwards sharply, breaking past previous support levels, which may now act as resistance on any potential rebounds. Fibonacci Retracement Levels Current Position Relative to Levels: The index has fallen below the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level and is approaching the 61.8% level. Key Fibonacci Levels: 23.6% → 5,584.26 38.2% → 5,385.65 50.0% → 5,144.15 61.8% → 4,903.11 Interpretation: The significant drop below the 50% level shows a robust continuation of the bearish trend, with the 61.80% level being the next critical marker to watch for potential support or further decline. Overall Market Interpretation The market's continued movement in a downward trajectory with all indicators pointing to a sustained bearish outlook suggests that investors remain cautious and are likely divesting, leading to the observed price declines. Summary Today’s significant downturn in the S&P 500 E-mini Futures highlights the ongoing bearish dominance in the market. With the index quickly approaching the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level, it's crucial to watch for either a stabilization and potential buying opportunity or further declines if this level fails to hold. The lack of any bullish signals currently suggests that caution is warranted, and traders should prepare for possibly extended bearish conditions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by traderspro_charts
S&P 500 Testing Key SupportThis analysis aims to provide you with a clear understanding of the market’s direction and potential inflection points on the Weekly timeframe. Bearish/Bullish Trend Analysis Trend Condition: Bullish Trends: 3 Bearish Trends: 11 Overview: The market shows a predominant bearish outlook with 11 trend lines indicating a downward movement. However, there are 3 bullish trends emerging, suggesting some areas of resistance or potential reversal points. Price Action and Momentum Zones Current Price and Change: Currently, the S&P 500 Futures are at 4,979.75, down 117.00 points or approximately -2.30%. Market Behavior: This week’s sharp decline is consistent with the dominant bearish trend but the presence of a few bullish lines hints at possible undercurrents of recovery or resistance. Momentum Zones: The index has recently entered a lower price band, testing significant support levels that could dictate the next movements within this bearish trend. Fibonacci Retracement Levels Current Position Relative to Levels: The futures are hovering around the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Key Fibonacci Levels: 23.6% → 5,537.68 38.2% → 5,148.66 50.0% → 4,834.25 61.8% → 4,519.84 Analysis: The proximity to the 50.0% level at 4,834.25 is noteworthy, as this level often acts as a moderate support in downtrends. Remaining around this level could suggest a stabilization or minor corrective rally if buying interest increases. Overall Market Interpretation Despite the downturn this week, the S&P 500 Futures showing some bullish signals could indicate a complex market environment where traders are assessing whether the current levels present buying opportunities or if the bearish trend will persist. Summary The S&P 500 Futures have faced a significant decline early in the trading week. With the market currently testing the 50.0% Fibonacci level, this could be a crucial juncture. The market's next steps will depend heavily on whether it can sustain above this level, potentially leading to a stabilization or a continued descent. Monitoring these Fibonacci levels will be key in predicting the short-term future of the market.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by traderspro_charts
Paradigm Shift or Panic Selling? ES Futures Weekly PlanCME_MINI:ES1! Macro Update: The escalation of reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures have sent shockwaves through markets, with widespread selloffs across asset classes, including gold. Fund managers and investors were forced to liquidate positions to cover margin calls. The likelihood of a global recession has surged, with Goldman Sachs raising the probability of a US recession to 45% from 35%. Meanwhile, JPMorgan increased its global and US recession odds to 60%, up from 40%, due to intensifying tariff tensions. The March 2025 Federal Reserve’s SEP projections suggest slowing growth amid rising inflation concerns, pointing in the right direction. Is this a paradigm shift, or was it already set in motion earlier in the decade? Or is this simply panic selling, with the expectation that US administration policy will soon stabilize markets? If it is a paradigm shift—as seems more likely based on recent developments—the current environment could prove historic, aligning with Ray Dalio's concepts on the changing world order, debt crises, and how nations go bankrupt. Investor Confidence: ES futures are currently down over 20%, entering bear market territory for the first time since the 2020 pandemic crash. The big question now is whether we’ll see a relief rally or continued sell-offs with occasional pullbacks, or if markets are establishing a new value range based on auction market principles. • 2024 YTD mCVAL: 5379.75 • 2022 CVAH: 5376 • March 2025 Low: 5533.75 • August 5th, 2024 Low: 5306.75 • Neutral LVN: 5191.50 - 5156.25 • April 4th, 2025 Low: 5074 • 2024 Yearly Low: 5016.25 • CVPOC 2022: 4610.50 Scenario 1: Further Downside The key downside level for ES Futures is 4610.50, where the most volume has been transacted since 2022. Currently, ES Futures are trading above this level. If the market establishes a value range between 4900 and 4500, further selling with brief pullbacks and consolidation above the 2022 CVPOC seems likely. Scenario 2: Relief Rally For a rally to take hold, ES Futures faces key resistance levels: the 2024 Low at 5016.25 and the pWeek Low at 5074. If markets sustainably stay above these levels, we could see a rally toward the 2022 CVAH at 5376. However, the sustainability of such a rally remains in question given the mountain of uncertainties ahead. It is important to note that uncertainty tends to create highly volatile market regimes. Traders should adjust the expected daily range accordingly. A good indicator to measure this is “Daily Average True Range”, many traders also rely on close-to-close standard deviation bands to gauge range on a given trading day. As such, we could see moves of 3% or more in either direction on any day.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
S&P500: Persistent SupportThe S&P 500 continued its recovery following its reaction to the support at 5509 points. However, in our primary scenario, we expect the index to fall below this mark to ultimately complete wave in green within our color-matched Target Zone (coordinates: 4988 points – 4763 points). Within this range, there are entry opportunities for long positions, which could be hedged with a stop 1% below the Zone’s lower boundary. Once the corrective movement has reached its low, the final upward movement of the green wave structure should commence. In the process, the index should gain significantly and reach the high of wave above the resistance at 6166 points. If this mark is surpassed prematurely, our alternative scenario with a 30% probability will come into play.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
Weekly Market Forecast: SELL THE INDICES!In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, AND DOW JONES Futures for the week of March 31st - April 4th. The equity markets took a bearish turn last week. This is likely to continue for the upcoming week. Monday is the end of March. Tuesday brings a new week and new opportunities. April 2nd brings... potentially market flipping volatility. The day the Trump tariffs are implemented. Be careful. Let the market give you direction, and then get involved. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by RT_Money
bearflag broke downno rate cuts but im still balling we already tested that gap (rectangle) so a second attempt will probably close it. that will throw us well below the year to date value range so im looking at it as a potential bottom. if this gap fails to hold im looking at the previous range for help and the previous value area high to turn support (classic what was once resistance is now support) on the shorter timeframe i anticipate 5485 to act as support a small bounce can make it look like a head and shoulders pattern for the bearflag target if there's any bullish play note this is not a trade i will take unless the data and reaction at the level will look bullish. so make sure you know we can straight up nuke on monday. (eyes on BTC during this weekend) anyone who saw my posts before i talked about how we need to rotate back to value thats exactly what happened. previous range value area high was left untested, retesting it is quite the possibility. (theres a gap right above it )
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Captainobvious5454
ES - Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn ES , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 5619 and 5651. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated. I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again. Downtrend and Volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go short on this trade. Happy trading, Dale
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trader_Dale
ES UpdateGap is still open but market is cycling down. RSI is not oversold yet. Probably a bounce when RSI hits oversold, but I don't expect a big one until the daily gets oversold. Market took such a big shit that firms had to sell gold futures for to cover losses and margin calls. So gold is red now as well. SO that play also appears to be done. Too bad I didn;t just short something before close like XLF or AAPL. Gaps are so huge, I have no idea how to play this. I don;t recommend going long today though, unless its just a day trade.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
8