SP500**SP500:**
This week, the price is expected to rise to the key level at 5642.00 for a trend reversal.
WSP1! trade ideas
ES (S&P 500 Futures) Day Trading analysisOn ES (S&P 500 Futures) , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 5509. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated.
I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again.
The downtrend combined with the strong volume area along with the strong S/R area from the past are my main reasons for this short trade.
Happy trading,
Dale
#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: Full bear mode. Market closes exactly at the 50% pullback price 5420 and we could see some sideways movement before more downside. Any pullback should stay below 5535. 0 Doubt in my mind that we see 5000 in 2024.
Quote from last week:
comment : Are we that much smarter than last Sunday after past week’s price action? I don’t think so. Still a lower high. Bulls closed the month extremely bullish but we are at previous resistance. Can’t be anything but neutral. Clear invalidation prices though. Above 5670 it’s bullish for ath retest 5721 or higher high. Below 5550 bears can generate momentum and convince bulls this was just a climactic retest of the highs and we go down again. Bulls still do have better arguments than the bears as long as they stay above the daily ema at 5565.
comment : Strong bearish momentum is what we got with the bearish engulfing candle on Monday and market never looked back. 50% pullback is almost exactly at Friday’s close and if we get a pullback before 5200, it will be here. What are the chances? No idea, so every time that is so, it’s 50/50. Absolutely favoring the bears to continue down to 5200, with or without pullback. So if we get one, I will load on swing shorts.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5000-5700
bull case: Bulls best chance for a pullback is right here at 5420 which is the 50% retracement and close to the weekly 20ema. I do not think after a 10%+ rally, that they will fight the bears to keep it above 5400. Market is erratic to say the least. Best bulls can hope for on Monday is sideways movement and stopping the bears from printing lower lows.
Invalidation is below 5390.
bear case: Bears stepped aside completely on the move up but came back big time on Monday. Why did they short it on Monday? That is never important and ever a question you should try to answer because you simply can not and will not know. Ever. That is the inherent beauty of the markets if they are big enough. Too many participants to determine such useless thoughts. The height of the bars tells you that there is very strong selling going on because people want out.
Invalidation is above 5540.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. Bulls closed above 5660 so it’s a buy signal going into next week but my outlook has not changed. I wait for bears to come around and will only scalp longs.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5661 and now we are at 5419. I let you decide the value of the given outlook last Sunday.
short term: Full bear mode and yet we could get a 100+ point pullback. So shorting 5419 is not advisable as of now. Wait for bears to come around again. If bulls can get to 5500 again, look for a reversal and then you could load up on shorts. I do think it’s more likely that we will make high lows instead of lower lows and form a triangle.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Big ABC correction was good so far. Let’s see how low we can go.
S&P 500 Weekly AnalysisHere's my thoughts on the S&P 500 moving into the new week. I go over some bullish and bearish scenarios along with a longer term outlook. The levels I discuss are the most important things to me for determining the shorter term action ahead. Things are looking quite bearish after last week, but we've seen that before. I'll be watching the August and April lows closely.
$SPX & $NQ Recession AlertBased 100% on the charts I believe we have begun a bear market. I provide several charts supporting my claim and time will tell if I am right or wrong. I provide a clear target and invalidation point.
Nothing I am saying is financial advice and this is all my opinion. You will lose your money following others opinions.
I have opened $2500 worth of calls on NASDAQ:SQQQ & AMEX:SPXU
NQ SHORT - Bearish Momentum - Mild Recession in PlayCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1!
Key Notes:
Daily and Below, follow the 200 EMA and positive or negative MACD
Weekly and Above, follow the 50 EMA and positive or negative MACD.
Don't overcomplicate it with 1000 technicals.
NQ moves between a 500 pt price block (average in a week, but can move more as we saw last week).
ES moves between a 100 pt price block (average).
NKD (Japanese) moves between a 1000 pt price block (average).
Take these levels as significant levels for longs/shorts.
HIT me up with any questions for more methodology or anything. Hard to fit everything in a 20 minute video.
Rising Wedge Patter Time For CorrectionSince covid a rising wedge pattern has formed. IMHO its time for the long overdue correction! What do you guys think?
Weekly $ES Analysis | Sep 9-13Last week's price action
This Weeks Price Projections
High Time Frame Analysis & Bias
NYSE:ES SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ
There may be a rebound, and then pull back by half.The market index may rebound first, and then continue to decline and pull back next week. The pullback is 50% of the previous wave.
The total trading volume in the downtrend wave is greater than that in the uptrend wave. There is a high probability of a second leg of decline.
S&P futures are in a volatile modeCurrently, S&P futures are in a volatile mode. Traders should sell high and buy low. The price has gone through several oscillations. It is very likely that a direction will be chosen in the next one or two days. Judging from the development of the moving average, a breakout to the upside may occur.
Not a big day downA big day down on Monday in the S&P 500 is not expected. Continued weakness in the Asia session and a possible bounce off of the lows would be more typical behavior. The next objective to the downside is 5400.
ES Daily Bullflag to 6kAs the other 2 major indices (NQ/YM) ES ended the month very strong right at the breakout point of its flag.
Upside price target is the previous ATH at 5721.25 and 6000 on a break of that high
Weekly Recap & Top 5 Trade Ideas ReviewBears finally had a good week this week. I don't really care if it goes up or down, but I love the volatility. Hopefully it continues next week. Here's my thoughts on the market moving forward and a recap of the top 5 trade ideas I had for this week.
OHLC Statistical mapping Bread &Butter ModelWhen bearish you wanna enter in the close proximity of -Manipulation and ideally target -Distribution like me today.
Sept 6th NFP ReactionNFP NY SESSION SEPT. 6TH
8:30 NPF release Price trades up into SIBI CE from prev day.
Creates Silver bullet setup at 9:30 NY AM session and thens drops to IPDA 20 equilibrium.
Offering 100 pts.
ES Range Expectations on the Non-Farm Payrolls ReleaseToday we're again looking at ES e-mini futures for an expectation of the amount of range we could do on this NFP data release. We take a look at both the upside and downside to get a view on where the boundaries of normality would be to aid us in framing intraday trades
Overnight ES Price Action Review 9-6-24Going over the Overnight session looking for clues as to what the market wants to do. NFP at 830 and the morning session will be dictated by the report. We Are Risk Managers first and Foremost. protect your mental capital at all costs for the upcoming weekend. no A+ setups no trades for us today.
S&P Analysis (Long/Short) PRE NFP | Recession Coming?The SPX like many other equities has been hit by risk off sentiment following concerning data.
Anything further could spur more negative bias on equities and bring them down.
ES HEADING INTO NFPWe are fast approaching the previous NFP data point (whilst NQ sits below its previous NFP already). As I said on the NFP analysis the majority are anticipating a melt up on NFP. Which does make sense to squeeze the shorts this week but I still see us trading lower to atleast take the close proximity liquidity at the low and even trade below the previous NFP data point. The CLM level is critical. This is a level I have developed after 8 years in this game. I have a system around them which over a large number of trades is at the moment running at 63% win rate ! So for now I'm certainly utilising those levels, here I have just marked in 1 of several.
Stay safe on NFP.
Namaste!
Yes going lower it's about 12 midnight.... I misstated it in the video.. I think the Market's going lower even though it's at a support level because the market had already had a high and it's a number of weeks later and the market could not retest the high and now the market looks like it's going to break lower and the reward is about 100 points maybe more. I don't quite have a classic 2 bar reversal and... so I am jumping the gun a lit.bability that the market will trade lower. if it works it's not really an eloquent trade and if it goes higher and stops me out that's not eloquent either but you generally won't go broke with small stops as long as you can make decent Returns on the trades that you do take. I talked about time as a consideration for taking a trade... I started out my training like that many years ago.... but I found that it was a futile and frustrating way to look at the market and I have almost completely stopped trying to factor in time. if you draw oblique lines on a chart that's associated with time,,,, if you draw a horizontal support resistance line that has nothing. to do with time...which is a good thing for me. an oscillator by definition deals with time.... and my interpretation of an oscillator is unreliable because of that so I never used them. but it's okay to look at a chart that fails to make new highs over a substantial. Of time and that's what I tried doing here.
ES Short TargetI'm expecting a bearish reaction to NFP tomorrow, but we'll see. Not gonna bother trying to predict that, but I will react to it. ES held around 5500 today and has demand from ~5486-5471. If we end up selling off below 5471 tomorrow, 5440 is the first target after that and eventually down to the trendline below.
That may be around 5350 depending on when it hits. We may get a bounce around 5440, which could lead to a retest of the demand near 5486, it should flip to supply if broken below. If we hold 5500 and reclaim the trendline above, I'd be looking for longs on a retest. VX will be an important thing to monitor as well.
ES Price ACtion Review Day Session 9-5-24Going over the DAy Session Price Action ES looking for clues as to how we could have traded better and how we're positioning for the NFP in the morning. No A+ setup no trades for us. keeping our mental capital intact for over the weekend where we'll do a lot of reflection and grading of trades. dont be lazy.
