A tense market environmentAlthough the S&P 500 daily chart indicates a market that got low enough to find buyers, it is a tense market environment as the market waits for the tariff announcements on Wednesday.
WSP1! trade ideas
ID: 2025 - 0073.18.2025
Trade #7 of 2025 executed. So simple, yet far from easy...
Trade entry at 30 DTE (days to expiration).
This trade has a little more hot sauce and fire built into it.
Unbalanced butterfly, close to expiration, will adjust the wing widths as the market adjusts either up or down. Goal is to be out of this trade in under two weeks before GAMMA really begins kicking in.
The reason I like going in closer to expiration after big market moves, is the volatility is better, and fills are quicker, and spreads are tighter. The downside of playing super long DTE strategies is that when the market gets spooked or turbulent, the bid/ask spreads become a mile wide.
Happy Trading!
-kevin
Liberation, Altercation or Doom? ES Futures weekly planCME_MINI:ES1!
Quick Update
The upcoming week is poised to be critical for financial markets as President Donald Trump's so-called "Liberation Day" on April 2 approaches. On this date, the administration plans to implement new tariffs aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit by imposing reciprocal duties on imports from various countries.
As April 2 looms, the full impact of these tariffs remains uncertain, leaving markets and investors in a state of heightened anticipation.
We may get clarity on the tariff situation on April 2, 2025.
Universal tariff announcement of categories of imports may clarify US administration’s maximum tariff escalation approach.
A phased out and unclear tariff approach may keep markets in limbo.
Economic Calendar
Keep an eye on the data docket, NFP and other key releases are due this week.
Tuesday, Apri 1, 2025 : ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings
Wednesday April 2, 2025 : ADP Employment Change, Factory Orders MoM
Thursday April 3, 2025 : Balance of Trade, Imports, Exports, ISM Services PMI, Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, April 4, 2025 : Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM,Average Hourly Earnings YoY, Fed Chair Powell Speech
Key Levels to Watch:
Yearly Open 2025 : 6001.25
Key Resistance : 5850- 5860
LVN : 5770 -5760
Neutral Zone : 5705-5720
Key LIS Mid Range 2024 : 5626.50
2024-YTD mCVAL : 5381
2022 CVAH : 5349.75
August 5th, 2024 Low : 5306.75
Scenario 1: Bold but Strategic Tariffs (Effective Use of Tariff to reduce trade deficit and raise revenue) : In this scenario, we may see relief rally in ES futures, price reclaiming 2024 mid-range with a move higher towards key resistance level.
Scenario 2: Maximum pressure, maximum tariff (All out trade war) : In this scenario, we anticipate a sell-off with major support levels, such as 2024- YTD mCVAL, 2022 CVAH and August 5th, 2024 low as immediate downside targets.
Scenario 3: Further delays in Tariff policy (A negotiating tool, with looming uncertainty) : In this scenario, sellers remain in control and uncertainty persists, while we anticipate that rallies may be sold, market price action may remain choppy and range bound.
Sp500 Weekly Action Areas & Price Targets 31/03/25In this update we review the recent price action in the emini SP500 futures and identify high probability action areas and price targets fort he trading week ahead!
ES UpdateLooks like they turned the algos on so here's the 3hr chart update.
Just because they turned the algos on doesn't mean good news for the bulls, ES MFI is almost overbought, I expect it to get there at market open. 7am right now.
So basically I'm expecting the market to fill the down gap then drop again.
Don;t expect any more updates today, I'm going to work now.
They Shut Down the AlgosYou can see in the chart that during the initial Feb/March drop that the algos were still running, and we'd see at least a small bounce when MFI/RSI got oversold, however you can see that they shut the algos down yesterday, MFI totally flatlined for 2 days which is something that did not happen on the initial drop.
So basically, there's no point for me to plot 3 hr charts until they turn the algos back on. I will post when that happens.
Made a bunch of mistakes this week, but managed to break even daytrading XLF puts twice today. XLF was lagging the market a bit which made it easier to trade.
ES/SPY Bottoming Process Gaining More ClarityThe George W Bush pattern still seems to be forming...taking the longer larger and more powerful form. Will the right lower part of the W take place above the lower left side, dead even or below. Certainly sentiment would lead us to believe it will be well below the left side. However, today failed to make a lower low. Selling may resume Sunday night/Monday morning or the double bottom retest may be complete....OR of course we can keep charging significantly lower.
ES/SPY Possible Enhancement On Idea.As per usually channel lines are nice but common price action includes big pushes past them and then reclaiming them. This provides great opportunities for big money to run the stops, scoop of the shares, paint a big wick and keep trucking. It's how the game is played and provides no real ability as to where to count on a bottom or to put stops. Non the less the channel lines provide an idea as to where to see signs of traction or of course a top for further bull traps or sell offs. Personally I think peak tariffs fears are near and at some point the market will accept them and move on.
Risk offThe S&P 500 price action on Friday indicated risk off as demonstrated by the selling that came into this market. The expectation is further movement to the downside but not a big day down on Monday without new fundamental information.
BIG BIG weekI think 7 FED speakers,
A lot of tension in the markets, tops mean polarisation, considering reflexivity theory extreme volatility will ensue.
A lot of people might think the -0.786 ATH we got before the holidays is the top. I think they are mistaken as seen in the analysis below.
There is still legroom for higher, this is a big bet on my part.
I have a few contracts on the mag7 (GOOGL, TSLA and META) focusing on GOOGL since they seem to be in the same headwind as S&P
Let's see how this plays out
A good opportunity to buy the S&P with a target at 5700 and highThe price is tightening—an upward breakout is possible.
Use a tight stop. It’ll either take off or it won’t.
ES 3hr UpdateNot sure if I will have time to post an update tomorrow morning, futures are red, RSI looks like it's headed to oversold, foreign investors are ditching US assets, nobody trusts Trump. Index futures, stocks, bonds, and the US dollar all selling off.
With Trump gaming the market, it's easy to get whipsawed into a loss. Get caught holding puts when "news" comes out, and you're toast. I'm expecting "news" because of the bond selloff, Trump is rate sensitive because of his real estate interests.
I plan on buying gold if the US dollar loses support. See my gold posts. It's the only high confidence play I could come up with. If you like to leverage with options, you can do GLD calls, UUP puts, UDN calls, or bet on Euros, Swiss francs, or yen.
AMP Futures - How to add more levels for Parrallel ChannelIn this idea we will demonstrate how to apply more levels to the Parallel Channel drawing tool using the TradingView platform.
April 10th Trade Journal & Market AnalysisEOD accountability report: +$3087.50
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: going thru Flu symptoms
**Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System **
10:27 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (double buy signal)
12:30 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal (triple buy signal)
1:45 PM VXAlgo NQ X3 Buy Signal (triple buy signal) + market structure = A+ set up
Took some time off the last few days from trading futures to
re-organize the options account and long term port, got back into trading futures today.
Bottom in: S&P defended the Oct 2022 trendlineS&P successfully defended the Oct 2022 trendline
Weekly RSI oversold at 30
Bearish case
Nasdaq still under the Oct 2022 trendline
MES1! - Micro E - Mini S&P 500 Futures (Liquidity Grab Zone)Here I have the S&P Micro Futures showing consolidation in a tight range with about a 200 point spread to trade in. I have created this box to warn traders especially novice traders that this is a dangerous trade zone meant to grab liquidity (take your money). I would highly suggest to sit on your hands and wait for the price action to move out of the Liquidity Grab Box with a confirmed candle body close above or below the zone, at least 30 - 60 mins and with volume before taking a trade.
It seems that this consolidation is setting up for the next drop lower or higher depending on the tariff/trade war data we receive. Good Luck to all, preserve your capital and let the setups come to you, don't chase the price action, it will lead you into a trap.
Futures electronic hoursFutures electronic hours
💡 This idea focuses on trading futures during the electronic trading hours — the periods outside the regular cash session, where unique price behavior often occurs due to lower liquidity and algorithmic dominance.
📊 Core Strategy:
During electronic hours (typically post-market/pre-market), futures like ES, NQ, or CL often show sharp moves driven by global macro news, low-volume liquidity zones, or overnight positioning. These moves can offer high-probability setups when combined with key levels from the regular session.
🧠 How to use it:
1. Mark key support/resistance levels from the previous regular session.
2. During electronic hours (e.g., 6 PM – 9 AM ET), monitor price interaction with these levels.
3. Look for rejection, breakout, or fakeout signals, ideally with volume spikes.
4. Use tight risk management due to increased volatility and spreads.
⏱️ Electronic hours are often overlooked but can offer clean technical setups for experienced traders, especially in quiet news environments or after major macro releases.
📌 Works well with futures contracts like ES, NQ, CL, and GC. Can also be adapted for FX and crypto markets which trade 24/7.
Calling it nowBased of range projections, and price respecting Apr,4 daily FVG -, price is not slowing down, Last year low of (4,702.00) will get ran. Come back when im right😳
$MES1! Could Drop to Oct 2022's Fib 0.618 Level @ 4,520Monthly (April 2025)
- #TheStrat: 2u-2d-2d continuation
- Price stopped at the monthly 0.50 fib (Oct 2022 - Feb 2025)
Weekly (Mon April 7 - Sat, April 12)
- 2u-2d-2d continuation
- 4072 - 4520 is the range of 0.786 and 0.618, respectively.
- 4834 is the 0.5 fibonacci, short term reversal
Daily (Wed, April 9)
- 2u-2u-2d reversal
- potential support is 0.5 fib @ 4834
- RSI at 20 (low) and MACD still red
$ES $4178 target for the bottom?We broke every important level on the downside today, so that leads me to believe that we have farther to fall.
If I had to guess where we'd bottom, I think the most likely level is the 50% retracement of the covid lows which sits at $4178.
Let's see if it gets hit in the coming days or weeks.
ES1! - Monthly - Grand Scheme of ThingsClick Here🖱️ and scroll down👇 for the technicals, and more behind this analysis!!!
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..........✋NFA👍..........
📈Technical/Fundamental/Target Standpoint⬅️
1. Long-Term Perspective: While recent market volatility may induce panic, it's crucial to acknowledge the S&P 500's overarching upward trend. Periods of consolidation are inherent to sustained rallies, allowing the market to build momentum for further advances. However, given prevailing economic uncertainties—including inflation, tariffs, and signs of rally exhaustion—a healthy correction towards Q1-Q2 2024 price levels is plausible.
2. Short- to Medium-Term Outlook: A near-term retest of the 6,000 level is anticipated, followed by a subsequent retracement. In this period of heightened uncertainty, a cautious approach is recommended for bullish positions.
3. Technical Considerations: Current weekly and monthly chart patterns remain in development. In light of this, prioritizing the preservation of existing gains is paramount, a strategy that appears to be underemphasized in current market discussions.
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...🎉🎉🎉Before You Go🎉🎉🎉…
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