S&P ES Long setup target 5963.50 / Calls SPY target 596Fibonacci technical analysis : S&P 500 E-mini Futures CME_MINI:ES1! has already found support at the Fib level 78.6% (5623.50) of my Down Fib. Last Daily candle (May 2) has closed above retracement Fib level 78.6%. My Down Fib guides me to look for CME_MINI:ES1! to eventually go up to hit first target at Fib level 127.2% (5963.50).
CME_MINI:ES1! – Target 1 at 127.2% (5963.50), Target 2 at 161.8% (6205.50) and Target 3 at 178.6 (6322.75)
Stop loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement Fib level (5506.25).
Option Traders : My AMEX:SPY chart Down Fib shows price to go up to Target 1 at 127.2% (595.82), Target 2 at 161.8% (620.50) and Target 3 at 178.6 (632.50)
Stop loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement Fib level (549).
Enjoy the trading process and take time to smell the roses🌹
WSP1! trade ideas
MES Short🔴 High Risk Short
Bearish Market Structure Shift caused by price meeting origin of Daily MSS from Mar04. Trade mapped on the hourly timeframe; focusing on impulsive swing high at $5956.25 that created MSS.
Entry on measured 61.8% fib retracement @ $5914.75.
TP1: $5873.25 (1R)
TP2: $5822.25 (2.25R)
Second take profit level lines up with both 200SMA + bullish 4H channel support , adding confluence to trade idea. It stands to reason price will retest the support of a longstanding bullish channel.
Notes:
•Stops moved to BE once TP1 hit
•Trade is high-risk due to SL having no significant higher timeframe importance.
The reason I’m focusing on this leg of price action rather than the 4H high at $5993.25, is because this hourly high specifically created the higher timeframe MSS. It suggests there’s an unusually high amount of sellers at that level.
Where is the Stock Market going tomorrow? Trade Journal 05/19/25EOD accountability report: +500
Sleep: 3.5 hours , Overall health: tired
What was my initial plan?
Short if market went under 5920, long with X7 buy signals, and short at 5968 area, and long if we retrace to 5925s
overall market went accordingly to Bullish structure and x7 buy signal. that's the whole reason of the system, to let you know what the market is and all you need to do is follow accordingly instead of fighting it.
Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System
— 7:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
— 9:36 AM VXAlgo X7 Buy Signal, ticker = NQ1!, price = 21281.25
— 2:00 PM VXAlgo ES X3 Sell Signal
— 2:35 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
Next day plan--> Above 5920/5900 = Bullish, if we lose 48min support at 5928 --> 5875 next
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
#MES INTRADAY ANALYSISThis chart outlines my percieved support and resistance levels based on price action and volume observation,I also use VWAP and AVWAP to identify potential value areas.The 65 MA on 30 min chart approximates the 5 day MA (Shout out to Brian Shannon of Alphatrends for alerting me to this) I also pay attention to daily settlement prices and of course Initial Balance highs and lows.
Yearly Open in Play — Is This the Real Bull or Just a Bounce?CME_MINI:ES1!
Macro Recap
Late Friday, Moody’s lowered the US’s sovereign rating from AAA to Aa1. This reflects a unanimous downgrade of the US, joining S&P and Fitch in stripping the US of its AAA status.
Would this result in a sell-off?
In our analysis, and consensus from the Street, is that it will be contained since the downgrade puts Moody’s in the same camp as S&P and Fitch.
There are talks of renegotiating UK–EU trade deals, which has boosted cable.
On the geopolitical side, not much has changed. Ceasefire talks are ongoing but stuck in neutral. No new catalysts—yet.
The spotlight, however, is firmly on the Fed. Over the weekend, President Trump called on Chair Powell to cut rates “before it’s too late,” echoing a post from April 17th where he labeled Powell’s speech “a complete mess” and added, “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough.”
With a packed schedule of Fed speakers this week, the real question is whether they’ll double down on the Fed’s independence—or bend toward political gravity, especially with Trump reportedly eyeing the top job.
Economic data is light. That puts full attention on the Fed and headline risk. Traders should stay nimble and alert. Momentum could shift fast.
Markets are now pricing in two cuts of 25 bps each for September and December 2025.
This is very different from market pricing one month ago, when reciprocal tariffs were announced.
Monitoring rate cut expectations is another key theme this week, with multiple Fed speakers scheduled.
ES Futures
ES Futures have been one-time framing up — i.e., creating higher lows — on the weekly timeframe.
ES Futures have also created higher highs.
Key Levels:
• March 2025 High: 6052.50
• 2025 Yearly Open: 6001.25
• Previous Week High: 5977.50
• Previous Week Mid: 5856
Bull Market—or Just a Bear Bounce?
That’s the question traders are asking.
From our perspective, this looks like a recovery from a trade policy shock. The market took the hit, recalibrated, and bounced back.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. After a move this strong, some pause is natural. We’re watching for potential consolidation or profit-taking, especially with price action still holding below the yearly open.
Caution is warranted here—momentum’s in play, but the structure hasn’t fully confirmed the shift.
Scenario 1: Another Up Week, Capped by Yearly Open
In this scenario, the rally will be contained as the yearly open remains a strong pivot and resistance zone.
The LIS (Line in the Sand) for short trade opportunities is the yearly open pivot.
Scenario 2: Range-Bound Week
In this scenario, we expect markets to consolidate, remaining above last week’s low and finding support at the prior week’s mid-range.
We will look to initiate longs from the previous week’s mid-range, looking for level-to-level scalping opportunities in a range-bound market.
Where is the Stock Market going tomorrow? & Trade Journal 05/16EOD accountability report: +1106
Sleep: 6 hours , Overall health: Good
We keep chugging up for no reason, breaking past all resistance points on fume but friday after hours shows that we are starting to lose cruical supports and they were just squeezing the bears.
Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System
— 5/16/2025 9:00 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
— 5/16/2025 9:50 AM VXAlgo YM X1 Buy Signal
— 5/16/2025 12:03 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
— 5/16/2025 1:40 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal(double sell) C+ set up
— 5/16/2025 3:30 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal (Triple sell) B+ set up
Next day plan--> Above 5920/5900 = Bullish, if we lose 5920 --> 48min support at 5900, if 5900 is lost then we can go to 5800.
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
ai 517taDuring the week of May 12–16, the S&P 500 E-mini futures (ES) displayed a cautious but resilient tone as price action consolidated near all-time highs. The market reflected a balance between optimism around earnings and caution ahead of upcoming macroeconomic data. Volatility contracted through the middle of the week but picked up slightly on Friday as traders repositioned for the following week.
ES: Testing Yearly Open at 5950Current Market Structure
Market completed successful retest of 2024 value area low (~20% correction from ATH)
We are currently engaged in value discovery journey back toward developing POC near ATH
Yearly open at ~5950 serves as current battleground level.
Friday's Action Analysis
Multiple rotations between yearly open (5950) and value area low (5925-5930)
Staying within and expanding above yesterdays upper distribution
Bulls eventually won the day, pushing +20 points to 5975
Key concern: Post-close liquidation break erased gains, returning to 5950
Suggests weak hands accumulated during the drift higher
Technical Structure Issues
White House announcement-driven moves created weak structure below current levels
Multiple unfilled gaps and single prints underneath
Weekly & Monthly VPOCs (virgin points of control) present structural vulnerabilities
Path of least resistance technically up, but lacking conviction
While the path of least resistance is upward, we really don't have a lot of people looking to start new positions here. Unless other timeframe traders come in and start finding value, we're just going to chop around. The market wants to get back to that POC near the highs, but it's getting artificial help every time we hit a pivotal point which is creating weak structure underneath us.
May 14th Trade Journal & Stock Market AnalysisEOD accountability report: +452
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: 👍
Been super chillax, having some great trading days 😄
Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System
9:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
10:37 AM SMH/Chip Stock Sell Signal X10
1:00 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
2:34 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
3:01 PM VXAlgo YM X1 Sell Signal
3:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
Next day plan--> Under 5875 = Bearish with X7 sell signal, Over 5900 = Clearly bullish breakout
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
ID: 2025 - 0105.14.2025
Trade #10 of 2025 executed.
Trade entry at 37 DTE (days to expiration).
Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 15 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 15. Overlapping short strikes give it the "unbalanced" butterfly nomenclature.
Sizing and strike selection is designed to keep the risk/reward "AT EXPIRATION" to a 1:1 risk profile. This lets charm work it's magic (second order greek), while exploiting the fact that this is a non-directional bias. The process is a disciplined and systematic approach letting time decay evaporate the extrinsic time value from the short options until target profit is achieved.
Target profit is 5% ROI
Happy Trading!
-kevin
Bullish Momentum ContinuesBullish Momentum continues but a retracement is very well needed. We are currently at 2.5 STDV level and my final target is 4 STDV drawn on the chart but before we get there, I do want to see a solid retracement down.
We also pushed through that monthly FVG so retracement after such a displacement is seen very often. We will either push a bit higher first then back to FVG then to 4 STDV or retrace now, perhaps to CE of that FVH then push to 4 STDV.
LONG ESNeeds to break and hold above $5880 before anything*
SL below $5800 (Last Target)
TP $6200 BABY!
You guys might call me crazy...
but here is my opinion analysis....
Inflation numbers coming in tomorrow, while Inflation is expected to be higher this is what I am thinking..
I think inflation numbers are going to come back at an unexpected low due to a synthetic event with the tariffs and a pause on BUYING.
what happens when people stop buying for a little? price goes down...
This is a shot in the dark but I think its going to confuse the market majorly because at the same time the Feds will be looking at it from the point of lets wait and see. This can trigger a massive sell off in June if people are rallying. We will know once the numbers are released tomorrow morning at 530AM.
In the meantime...I think Greed is in...with ES as high as the $6200 if this happens.
May 12th Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis May 12th Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis
EOD accountability report: +778.75
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: 👍
Just arrived to BKK, and adjusting to the new place.
day 5 of taking the morning pill stacks consistency and noticing the lions mane working pretty effectively with the new supplements.
trading has been very clear and easy.
Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System
— Yesterday at 9:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3
Yesterday at 1:00 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
— Yesterday at 1:21 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal
— Yesterday at 1:30 PMVXAlgo ES X7 Sell signal,
3:37 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
— Yesterday at 3:50 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (triple buy)
Next day plan--> Under 5875 = Bearish with X7 sell signal, Over 5900 = Clearly bullish breakout
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
S&P 500 – iSpark Catches Clean Breakout from 5330 to 5700📢 The iSpark Indicator caught a strong breakout on the S&P 500 Index (4H chart) around the 5330 level , which was followed by a sequence of bullish moves — now reaching the 5700 mark.
🔍 Currently, price is testing the 10 EMA at 5710 , which is acting as a short-term resistance . A clear break and sustained move above 5710 could trigger the next leg higher toward 5750–5775 .
🎯 Holding positions? Stay in with a stop-loss at 5600 to manage risk.
📉 Fundamental caution: As always, keep an eye on macro headlines — unexpected global turmoil or sharp trade commentary (e.g., tariffs) may influence momentum
💡 This entire setup was captured early using the iSpark Indicator , designed to detect high-conviction breakouts across timeframes.
📬 Premium users interested in testing the iSpark Indicator can DM me for a hands-on walkthrough.
#SP500 #ES1! #Breakout #iSpark #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #EMA #TrendFollowing #SPX #TradingView #SNP500
GoodInvestGroup_ES813 New Strategy 80% winrate high performanceGoodInvestGroup_ES813 is coded for NY session. High performance across 10 years of backtesting.
Performance Stats sample (1/1/2020<):
Win Rate: 88.20%
Loss Rate: 5.48%
% of Trades Stopped Out in Profit (Trailing Stops): 94.52%
% of Trades Hard Stopped at Loss (SL): 2.63%
Please do your own backtests and research.
Market conditions change which may lead to losses.
NOT a financial advice.
$6 Trillion Rollercoaster: Trade War Jitters Clash With FedThe index swung wildly as Trump’s 145% China tariffs and hints of an 80% reduction collided with Fed Chair Powell’s cautious stance on rates. Despite a midweek rally, the S&P 500 ( NYSE:ES ) closed the week down 0.46% at $5,684 reflecting investor paralysis ahead of U.S.- China trade talks.