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WSP1! trade ideas

ES Bear FlagES nearly filled the gap today from Sunday evening, but rejected before it did. That was also another test of 5300 that briefly overshot before erasing the entire move. This is the second time in the past week where ES and NQ have rallied substantially and then reversed the entire move in 24 hours. The volatility I have been warning about is here and this is the new normal until VX cools off, if it does anytime soon. I'm not sure if it will, but for now I see this action as extremely concerning for bulls. ES did have a very nice inverse H&S that led to today's rally, but it quickly stalled and failed after it broke 5300. We saw some large orders coming in up there around 5310 and 5300, which I think is significant enough to note. ES has been forming this clean bear flag since opening Sunday night and today it rejected off the top end and came all the way back to the bottom end and closed nearly right on the line. This is critical if bulls can not save it here, ES and NQ are likely to break below the April lows this week if bulls do not step in. That would just makes things a whole lot worse. As I've said, this is just the beginning. Price will not go straight down, we'll have rallies and short squeezes. However, there is a high probably of continued downside for at least 2-3 months in my opinion. If we break April lows, the next major target is 2023 lows, which seems very far away for most. Price can get there faster than anyone can imagine, be careful out there.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by AdvancedPlays
ES1! Monthly ButterflyLooks like a bearish butterfly is complete on ES, Typical targets are usually between the A-C points or possibly extending down to around 2800 or so which would be a pretty large correction Medium term fib cluster levels shown for possible short term bounce If it really starts to fall and in all honesty I think looking at some of the FANG stocks that have such a large weighting on the indices and the JPY carry trades unwinding I think a deeper retracement is likely as there is a general sense of de-risking... No trade for me but pretty clear example
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by dionvuletich
2
ES Daily Violence Into 200 Bounce PlayAny violence into the 200sma and the subsequent small bounce is 100% shortable after the elimination of the green's body. In this case, 4250. Sell limit order under that body low at 4245 Target the low of the range or 4850 Violence into the 200sma is NOT a buyable event and WILL roll over in a dead cat bounce. All the dashed lines below are pivot lows where stops are placed. Ample fuel for stop runs down. Also, trade in the direction of the 21ema as that is where the flow of power is at the moment. Why pick a bottom when you can just slip in the river and be swept downstream without trying.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
Change of Market Structure (Reverting Back To Original Thesis)I believe I was wrong on a bull rally but instead the market is performing what I was planning back in September of 2023. A sideways range for the next 20 years. It just took awhile to start to roll over. The June, July and August monthly candles completes the engulfing pattern at the top of the bear flag. I am now short after taking some losses on my Dow position and will target the rising to flattening out 200sma down at 2900. Notice the bear flag as well on the MACD? It will soon too be rolling over and going deep into sell territory. Plus the monthly MACD divergence. I can't believe I got suckered into this fake bull rally after being a bear back in 2023. I will link below my original thesis as I don't want to go over the same charts as before. One thing to note on the Daily chart is the violence INTO the 200sma is regarded as a selling opportunity.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
2024-08-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. Since today was a very special day again, I need to see futures opening later and the Asia session in the morning to give more updates. So only a short one on sp500 and will write more tomorrow morning. comment: 3 days, -8%. This is either due to an event happening right now or a very climactic but short lived selling, which could produce a huge bounce upwards. 5000/5100 were my targets which I was not sure about if we could get there in 2024 but getting there in a couple of days is something special. I do not know the reasons for the selloff and neither do you or anyone else. Don’t fool yourself because random bro on twitter said it’s because of the jpn carry trade or whatever. All we know is that people are running for the exits and we almost had the first limit down day since covid. current market cycle: Bear trend key levels: 5000 - 5300 bull case: Bulls stopped the selling at 5119, which was in the area of the May low. And in between my lower target of 5200 and the most obvious big support 5000. If this is not an event where all technicals are out of the window, a pullback will happen, that’s the nature of markets. Bulls printed a textbook inverted head & shoulders and the target for that is 5420. The 50% pb from the ath to recent low is 5418. I am not saying that we get there tomorrow but bear trends have violent pullbacks and it’s absolutely possible to see that price again. For now bulls should be happy with holding above 5200 and going sideways. Invalidation is below 5100. bear case: Bears produced 3 extremely climactic bear bars on the daily chart and that is unsustainable. Market needs a pullback and everyone knows it. Market touched the 1h 20ema twice today for the first time since Thursday. The bear wedge already broke and market is trying to find a bottom. If bears are strong and this selling is the end of it all, any pullback will be violently sold again and market will probably not see 5350 or higher again. If this is not the end all be all, we get a healthy pullback to form a proper channel, which will lead us to 5000 over the next weeks. That is the reasonable and my preferred path forward. If bears go full panic mode, we see 5000 today and probably a bit lower just to get all stops below, before a bounce. This was most likely leg 2 (W3) of this current bear trend. Invalidation is above 5460. short term: Can’t be bearish at these lows. 5100/5200 will most likely hold and we trade in the given range for some time or see a bigger pullback to 5400ish. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds