Get started
Micro S&P 500 FuturesMicro S&P 500 FuturesMicro S&P 500 Futures

Micro S&P 500 Futures

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Forward curve Seasonals Contracts

WSP1! trade ideas

ES: DO OR DIE!The SP500 had quite the negative intraday price action today, up until we had a strong volume supported bounce at the Value Area Low of the current range, in confluence with the swing failure pattern of the previous wick low, as well as the 618 fibonacci level from the low to the high of the trump pump. I am watching this do or die zone as the key area where the news fundamentally changed when Trump enacted a 90 day pause. Should we start getting acceptance into this zone, I would view that as extremely bearish for the reason that the market is reclaiming lower levels despite positive Trump news. Lets see how it plays out!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by afurs1
Solid Q1 Earnings amid Tariff Turbulence Spike S&P500 VolatilityAs Q1 earnings roll in, Wall Street is digesting a rare divergence: strong fundamentals across much of corporate America paired with deepening investor anxiety. While companies are largely beating expectations, looming tariff shocks and tech sector fragility are suppressing sentiment—and returns. Tactical positioning is crucial at times like this. This paper describes the outlook for the coming earnings season and posits options strategies that astute portfolio managers can deploy to generate solid yield with fixed downside. Resilient Earnings Growth in the Current Season The Q1 2025 earnings season is underway, and early results show resilient growth despite an unsettled backdrop. According to a Factset report , with about 12% of S&P 500 firms reporting so far, 71% have beaten earnings estimates and 61% have topped revenue forecasts. Blended earnings are tracking about +7.2% year-over-year, on pace for a seventh-straight quarter of growth. However, only two sectors have seen improved earnings outlook since the quarter began (led by Financials), while most others have faced modest downgrades. Forward guidance is also skewing cautious – roughly 59% of S&P companies issuing full-year EPS forecasts have guided below prior consensus, reflecting corporate wariness amid macro uncertainty. Source: Factset as of 17/April Financials Front-Load the Upside The first wave of reports was dominated by major banks, which largely delivered strong profits and upside surprises. Volatile markets proved a boon to trading desks: JPMorgan’s equities trading revenue surged 48% to a record $3.8 billion, and Bank of America’s stock traders hauled in a record $2.2 billion as clients repositioned portfolios around tariff news. Source: Factset as of 17/April These tailwinds – along with still-solid net interest income – helped lenders like JPMorgan and Citigroup post double-digit profit growth (JPM’s Q1 earnings up 9% to $5.07/share; Citi’s up 21% to $1.96). FactSet notes that positive surprises from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and peers have boosted the Financials sector’s blended earnings growth rate to 6.1% (from 2.6% as of March 31), making it a key contributor to the S&P 500’s overall gains. Even so, bank executives struck a wary tone. JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that “considerable turbulence” from geopolitics and trade tensions is weighing on client sentiment. Wells Fargo likewise warned that U.S. tariffs could slow the economy and trimmed its full-year net interest income outlook to the low end of its range. Across Wall Street, management teams indicated they are shoring up reserves and bracing for potential credit headwinds if import levies drive up inflation or dent growth. Tech Titans Under Scrutiny Attention now turns to the yet-to-report mega-cap tech firms, which face a very different set of challenges. Stocks like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet – collectively heavyweights in the index – have been battered by the escalating trade war, eroding some of their premium valuations. Apple’s share price plunged over 20% in early April on fears that new tariffs could jack up the cost of an iPhone to nearly $2,300, underscoring these companies’ exposure to global supply chains. The tech sector’s forward P/E remains about 23 (well above the market’s 19), leaving little room for error if earnings guidance disappoints. With Washington’s tariff barrage and retaliatory threats casting a long shadow, Big Tech finds itself on the front line of the global trade war, suddenly vulnerable on multiple fronts. Any cautious outlook from these giants – which account for an outsized share of S&P 500 profits – could heavily sway overall forward earnings sentiment. Market Context and Reaction Despite solid Q1 fundamentals, equity markets have been whipsawed by macro headlines. The S&P 500 slid into correction territory, falling roughly 10% since the start of April and about 14% below its February peak, as investors de-rated stocks in anticipation of tariff fallout and a potential economic slowdown. Consumer inflation expectations have skyrocketed with risk delaying rate cuts in the near-term. This pullback has tempered valuations somewhat – the index’s forward P/E has eased to ~19 (down from ~20 at quarter-end) – even though consensus earnings estimate for 2025 have only inched down. Notably, the high-flying “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap stocks that led last year’s rally are all sharply lower year-to-date (Alphabet –20%, Tesla –40%), a stark reversal that has dented market breadth and sentiment. Source: Factset as of 17/April Investors are rewarding only the strong earnings winners: for instance, Bank of America’s stock jumped over 4% after its earnings beat, and JPMorgan rose 3% on its results. Such reactions imply the market is discriminating – strong execution is being acknowledged even as the broader mood remains cautious. Source: Factset as of 17/April Hypothetical Trade Setup Solid corporate performance is offset by significant macro risks, warranting a nimble and selective approach. While recent positive earnings may provide a short-term boost, downbeat sentiment and concerns over future tech earnings could limit gains. In this uncertain environment, investors may adopt a fundamentally driven view that the S&P 500 could rise in the near term due to strong earnings. However, the upside appears limited, supporting the case for a bullish call spread. Earnings release dates for the Super 7 With major tech firms set to report earnings in early May, investors can consider the 2nd May MES Friday weekly options. A narrow bull call spread offers a higher probability of profitability. In this hypothetical setup, the long call is at 5,250 and the short call at 5,390, resulting in a breakeven point of 5,312 at expiry. This position requires net premium of USD 315/contract (USD 62.5/index point x 5). The position returns a max profit of USD 385/contract for all strikes > 5,390 and a max loss of USD 315/contract for all strikes < 5,250. This strategy is most successful when the S&P 500 rises slowly. A simulation of this scenario using the CME QuikStrike Strategy Simulator has been provided below. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by mintdotfinance
Bulls Need a Win Here—5,148 Is Key SupportMarket Overview: Welcome to today’s market overview. We’ll break down the current trends, price movement, and where we are on the Fibonacci roadmap. This helps us frame the market’s current path and the key levels that may trigger a shift in momentum. Despite a soft start to the week, market sentiment is adjusting to expectations around upcoming economic data. Investors are watching for fresh signals on inflation and interest rates, with earnings season underway and more heavyweight tech names reporting soon. After a volatile couple of weeks, the S&P 500 appears to be stabilizing—but it’s not out of the woods yet. Bearish/Bullish Trend Analysis Trend Condition: Bullish Trends: 6 Bearish Trends: 8 Overview: The market is leaning slightly bearish, with 8 trend lines pointing lower and 6 still showing bullish momentum. This split reflects some indecision after a strong downtrend, suggesting the market could be attempting to stabilize but hasn’t flipped the trend yet. Price Action and Momentum Zones Current Price and Change: Currently, the S&P 500 Futures are at 5,294.25, down by 32.25 points or -0.61%. Market Behavior: Price dipped again this week but held just above recent support levels. It’s not a sharp breakdown, but momentum remains heavy, and buyers haven’t stepped in with strength yet. Momentum Zones: Price is hovering just above the 38.2% Fib retracement, in the middle of the corrective zone. In a bearish context, this area acts as a supply zone—any bounce here could still be countertrend unless buyers regain control above 5,537. Fib Retracement Levels Current Position Relative to Levels: The market is currently just above the 38.2% retracement level. Key Fibonacci Levels: 23.6% → 5,537.68 38.2% → 5,148.66 50.0% → 4,834.25 61.8% → 4,519.84 Analysis: Hovering above the 38.2% level suggests the market is still trying to find its footing after the recent drop. If buyers can hold this zone, it could lead to a short-term rebound—but failure here may open the door to deeper support around 4,834. Overall Market Interpretation This week’s move hasn’t changed the broader outlook much. The trend remains under pressure, but the fact that support is holding gives bulls a chance to reset the tone. If the market can string together a few sessions above this zone, we could see a shift—but for now, the bias remains cautious. Summary The S&P 500 Futures are showing weakness early in the week. The broader trend remains bearish, and the 38.2% Fibonacci level is acting as support for now. This zone could determine whether a recovery builds or if sellers press further. Watch price action closely next week—this is a decision zone.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by traderspro_charts
ES UpdateNot many of my followers trade futures, but in case I don't have time to post an update before work tomorrow: 1) Another open gap down. I don't think it fills until RSI hits oversold and we get a bounce. 2) Dollar index broke support, but wouldn't surprise me if it did a backtest (maybe) 3) Gold trying to "break out" yet again, but a dollar backtest will look like another failed breakout (maybe) 4) Lots of earnings this week including TSLA Tues. I established a long position in gold, but I intend to hold it for a while. Not my usual short term trade. No desire to go long on stocks during earnings season when every company is going to be talking about tariff impacts.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
10
Weekly Market Forecast: Stocks Markets Are Stalled! Patience!In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and DOW JONES futures for the week of April 21 - 25th The Markets are stalled! No bullish follow through from the previous week. Last week failed to break the previous weekly high. This stall out looks consolidative and unclear. Wait for clarity! Let the markets break the high or low of the range convincingly... and trade accordingly. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by RT_Money
Friday Closeout | TA & Macro Recap + ES1! Game Plan📈 Chart Overview Current Price: 5,312.75 Daily Candle: Slight green candle, suggesting an attempt at recovery or a pause in the recent downtrend. 📈 Price Action & Technical Analysis SMA 9 (thin white): ~5,309.92 – Hugging current price, curling upward. SMA 50 (light blue) : ~5,759.54 – Above current price; Below SMA 200; indicating bearish pressure. (Death Cross) SMA 200 (thick cyan): ~5,890.90 – Above current price; Curling downward; longer-term downtrend signal. Structure: After a heavy decline in early April, price bounced on changing tariff paradigm, but is stalled short of the Prior Swing Support. This could be: A bear flag forming. Or. A basing pattern for a short-term reversal. 📈 RSI (14 Close) Current: 41.48 (37.49 MA) Interpretation: Below neutral (50), momentum is weak. A move back above 50 would be bullish. A turndown could indicate further weakness. Recent Bounce: RSI bounced from ~21, indicating the recent lows were oversold. Currently appears to be consolidating. 📈 MACD (12, 26, 9) MACD Line: -132.13 Signal Line: -125.86 Histogram: +6.27 and rising Interpretation: MACD is negative (bearish territory), but the histogram flipped positive, showing momentum may be improving. Bullish crossover is in progress, but at the moment, weak. A potential signal for a short-term upside move. 🎯 Key Levels Resistance: 5,300 (Prior Week Base Levels) to 5,384 (Prior Swing Support) is current price zone of interest Support: Recent low just above 5,000 is critical — a break below should continue the downtrend. 🧨 Volatility Outlook TVC:VIX falls well within the 'Risk off Zone'. TVC:VIX spiked to 52.33 before receding to its current 29.65 📈 Macro/Fundamental Analysis Interpretation: In high TVC:VIX environment, with Tariff, Fiscal, and Political Uncertainty, price action will likely remain mercurial. This is likely to persist into the foreseeable future. TVC:DXY Dollar weakness has continued. Likely causes include: Fed Cut Expectations increasing & Decreasing Demand for US treasuries TVC:US10Y . I expect the weakening dollar to persist. All else qual, a weakening dollar is bullish for asset pricing, though, in the face of expect growth challenges, the effect is negated. I expect US10Y sales to continue to struggle, in the face of inflation risk and rising trade tensions. Bearish Possibilities: Expect continued talk about 'firing' the current fed chair. The market should react poorly to these threats if they intensify or become increasingly probable. Failures on trade talks with major trading partners. Bullish Possibilities: Improved earnings or earnings guidance, though, I expect this is unlikely. Successes on trade talks and deals with major trading partners. Fed Rate cuts - though - i expect this is highly unlikely. Fed QE - thought - i expect this is highly unlikely in the short term, barring an explosion in TVC:US10Y yields. 📆 Economic Calendar / Earnings Schedule Econ Calendar: Relatively Light Next Week Thursday - 830AM - Initial Jobless Claims Thursday - 830AM - Durable Goods Friday - 10AM - Michigan Consumer and Inflation Expectations Notable Earnings Calendar: Verizon NYSE:VZ - Tuesday Lockhead NYSE:LMT - Tuesday Ratheon NYSE:RTX - Tuesday Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA - Tuesday Boeing NYSE:BA - Wednesday Google NASDAQ:GOOG - Thursday Intel NASDAQ:INTC - Thursday Pepsi NASDAQ:PEP - Thursday Proctor and Gamble NYSE:PG - Thursday T-Mobile NASDAQ:TMUS - Thursday 🔍 Summary 🔻 Trend: Bearish below 50- and 200-day SMAs and recent 'Death Cross'. 🧩 Momentum: Turned bullish, with flat to fading strength. 🧠 Tactics: Short Term: Expect Ranging with slight bullish upside. Likely good day trading environment. Medium Term: Dead-cat bounce or Early Reversal ...? Watch for: Daily Close above the local swing high's or Low's If we breakout higher, look for further Daily Rejection at the moving averages (especially SMA 50). If we breakdown lower, look for a retest of the 5000 psychological support, down to, 4832.50.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by WillNixTrading
1
April 17th Trade Journal & Stock Market AnalysisApril 17th Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis EOD accountability report: +816.25 Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: Testing out new supplement, Sleep has been low, but energy level has been good. (testing out Ocimum tenuiflorum for sleep and adding Ginkgo Biloba W/LM) **Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System** 9:29 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 11:05 AM VXAlgo YM X1 Buy Signal 11:47 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 3:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 3:40 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (double signal) **Monday plan--> **watch for rejection of 48M Resistance for breakdown to 1D MOB
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by WallSt007
S&P 500 E-mini Futures – Bearish Setup Ahead?Price recently tapped into a key resistance zone where an imbalance was filled by a wick, showing signs of potential exhaustion. We could see a liquidity grab above before a significant move down toward the 5,150 level. Watch for a reaction in the highlighted resistance area – this could be the beginning of a bearish reversal. Major support sits lower, where a larger move might find footing. 🔹 Resistance tested 🔹 Imbalance filled 🔹 Bearish reaction anticipated 🔹 Targeting the 5,150 zone Let me know your thoughts – do you see the same setup?
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by wdstrades
7
Still Need Some Correction For S&P500 / ES Before Going UpAttention: Prices are read on the futures chart, so they might be different if you are reading on cash charts. But directions and realtionships, should be very similar. I believe S&P is in a very volatile correction and it is a bit hard to read. To me it looks like price completed a green (a) of the grey ((y)) wave with a failed 5th and started the green (b) wave with a very aggressive purple a wave. I believe we are now finishing the blue a-b-c correction in a c-wave diagonal and I would like to see it go down to 5110 area in the green box, for the c wave to have room to develop into the yellow box in the 5530 area. If price is heading above the 5630 area, I would start to look for another count, since this would mean the green (a)-(b)-(c) correction should have been a flat, and since the green (a) wave is not counted in three waves, this can't be correct. Right now I would like price to go down to the 5110 area, then back up to the 5530, and then we start the last green (c) wave of the grey ((y)) correction. And this green (c) wave has plenty of room. All the way down to 4176 before it invalidates the count. After all this correction, happy days are starting again, where the 5th wave could be heading for the 6500 to 7000 area.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TheDane
ID: 2025 - 0084.16.2025 Trade #8 of 2025 executed. So simple, yet far from easy... Trade entry at 93 DTE (days to expiration). The last few weeks have been quite challenging, mostly due to increase volatility (3rd highest expansion in history), as well as widening bid/ask spreads. This trade idea will dovetail with trade id: 006 to balance delta without incurring more slippage due to spreads. This trade will hold to expiration without any adjustments until the final 30 days of trade life. Happy Trading! -kevin
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Kevins
SPY Futures April 2025Trump imposes new tariffs on imports from China, investors panic, and the market chops. A good level to look at on SPY Futures for the next couple weeks is 5528.00. I believe a break upwards can give bullish investors some confidence , while a rejection could bring even more downside. If we break upwards, possibly revisiting 5840.00, we're going to have to see if we can break that level and get back to the all time high. If we reject and price falls, the level to look at is 4833.00. A break of that support could mean a lot more downside in the coming months. But we're going to have to be patient allow Trump vs China to unfold.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by groovysushi27
1