ES1! Good morning everyone • Bias: Short-term bullish retracement inside broader bearish structure. • Core Trade Idea: Scalps long above 6,313 with confirmation, targeting OBs/FVGs. • Caution: Jobs data + tariff volatility = increased risk. Be nimble. Size down if unclear. • Ideal Zone for Shorts Rebuild: 6,345–6,360 range if price overextends.
MES1! 50 SMA in August above 80% chance on this setup. The 200 is not unlikely just less likely. It is a really bad time to be a dip buyer with leveraged longs right now. What happens at the 50 will decide my next move. It always comes back to it, and with lower lows every day this week so far it is clear institutions are unloading. Copper moved down 17.59% in 15 min yesterday. The tariff event is not to be taken lightly. 1987 the S&P moved down 20% in one day. You just never know when something like that could happen filling all gaps from April just instantly. Unlikely to happen like that, but anyone who has traded long enough knows that everything is possible in the market.
Let me clarify that we absolutely may see a close to equal lower high or even one more higher high. I was not suggesting to enter a short right here rather that taking this awesome pullback as a long is not the best decision anymore. Every daily candle has lower lows on it this week. That is a major shift.