AA1 trade ideas
We are definitely going to see a plunge down after earnings.I think we're going to see a dip to mid $20's sometime in November before we see any movement upwards. Long term it looks like it wants to settle between $37-$40 range for a fair price. That's plotting the chart from 1987 till now. Using also a fib from 2020 to present day. They are also going to report a -$20 million dollar loss on their earnings report this October if you look at their SEC Q-10 form filed. I think that's definitely where we'll see the plunge to the mid $20's. Every other linear regression line I've plotted with different extreme lows and highs from 1990 till now, have it within the $35-$40 range. I've written some CC's and bought puts to collar my trade expiring deep into 2023. I go my parachute ready lads, I suggest you guys do the same.
Inverse Head & Shoulders $AABearish
Inverse head & shoulders formation.
Retest neckline
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Cheers and happy trading!
Alcoa is going to make a run for $62.50 This looks like a solid long setup here. They'll try to bring price up to the high volume node at around $62.50, which also happens to be the 50% retracement of the entire leg down.
AADaily view. Nasty drop after that bear flag broke down. Looks like earnings next Wednesday. Could get a decent bounce to let some more big money out of the name.
AATagged my $39.57 level to the penny today. This level dates back to 1997. Might not be the worst level to try a long for a bounce.
$AA ~ Chess game going as expected...Correcting nicely... Love the company and will be a amazing opportunity down the road. Lets follow together and enjoy the ride. Next cycle will be different.
[Chart of the Day] Alcoa, critical levelAlcoa has dropped about 40% from its recent high of 98.00. In the past two weeks, it had dived even further.
Price seems to have created a lower high at 67.00.
It is current at very critical trendline support at 53.00. Do note that 55 is also the previous resistance back in Apr 2018.
Price to most likely consolidates between 53.00 and 67.00 for now. However, if 53.00 is broken, we will be looking at the long-term downtrend price action.
Alcoa is one of the beneficiaries of the Russian/Ukraine conflict along with the fertilizer sectors such as Mosiac. Also, note that Mosiac is facing a similar breakdown to Alcoa.
Our Summary: Current price may be too late for short. If the price rebounds back to the 67.00 level and bearish price action is seen, shorting may be a good position to take. Likewise, if there are bullish candles at 53.00, long positions may be taken as well. The range between 67.00 and 53.00 is big enough to trade. As mid-term trend and near term trend is bearish, we may be leaning more towards the short position.
Alcoa - time for a deeper correction?Log scale on the right chart, where we can identify a clear breakout to the downside.
No Armageddon, although, the stock may face some selling pressure for quite a prolonged period of time.
Short AAWe have two scenarios, 1. we go straight in $42 dollar zone, or 2. we go up to $100 zone, and fall right back down in to $42 zone. One or the other way I'm going short.
AA bouncing off support + Massive FlowThis trade has a great R:R imo.
Just a couple of days ago some heavy flow came into the January $75 calls. Over $5MI in premiums.
Price is bouncing off support and showing reaction.
Stop loss can be just below support and target can be $75 / $80
AA long scenarioMarket finished 1 to 5 Elliot wave theory and we are forecasting that this is the end of an ABC correction because it is 0.382 fib zone and top of the accumulation zone.
Entry: 65
Invalidation: 53
Target: 88 (middle of the accumulation zone)
AA.NYS_Breakout Trade_LongENTRY: 88.02
SL: 79.15
TP: 98.09
- ADX<20. Would like to be higher.
- Daily RS +ve
- Daily FFI -ve
- Weekly RS +ve
- Weekly FFI +ve
- Maintaining and looks like rebounded well around pivot point "P".
- Looks like possible channel movement off the bottom
- Entry based on breakout from Swim Trading VZ and Monthly CPR today but prefer it closed above.
Make or break area 👀AA at trend resistance, seems like its trying to breakout.. if it can my targets are 94.63-101.52-108.41
a break back below the trend can send it to 80.22-69.26
2022 Actual Trade: AA +31% Profits - 3-4 month base build a flat channel pattern in the tight range 44-52
- first entry point occurred 12/16/2021 at 52 when AA broke out the pattern
- we missed this entry point but we waited until its first consolidation 56-64 until early February
- obviously, AA was ready to make its prime time rally on February 7-8 when getting out 64 so it was our entry point 02/08 at 67
- the timing was right that AA took off immediately for the rally
- Fast February gave us enough buffer to hold through the tough March
- Then, another rally again gave the opportunity to take +31% within two months
Wyckoff Tape Reading - $AA - BullishBackground - Mar 20, 22
* 🐂
* Maybe at an oversold condition
Current Condition
* I don't see SOW 🚫 🐻
* Reactions on decreasing volume
* Coming to reaction -> re-rest at 90
What am I looking for
🐂 - high vol absorption at 90
🐂 - low vol reaction to 71 support and buy spring
🐻 - Don't see anything in the immediate future
Video Analysis cln.sh
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AA: Upside ReclaimAA upside reclaim with strength in the sector due to windfalls in the industry. Growth in the company is expected as a result of aluminum price hikes. Alcoa is breaching the 20MA once again after bouncing off support on key 50MA & 69.98 support. Re-seen auction puts AA back on track of an upside movement towards a channel from October 2021. MACD cross observed on technicals, RSI at 55, and healthy volume. Analysts reiterated to Buy with new PTs. Price target: 84-89 // ATR: 5.47, Beta: 2.25
Correction EndedThe March correction has ended today at the new high at 92.30. We may see a sideward range now or more likely another run down to close the window on March 1st .
AA chart 2-20-22Looking for throwback to support in coming weeks... chart extended and looking to play correction.
