AMAT running out of steamNASDAQ:AMAT has been seriously testing its dynamic support through last weeks earnings report, but has not yet posted a full daily candle beneath. Still, that support has been functionally invalidated by 4 successive candles poking through. In my opinion, a new technical structure is therefore forming. How price action respects the MA200 and/or key supports in the 115-120 range will help define the new channel and pattern.
The largest potential drop (excluding external catalysts) could be to the 118 level, i.e. at the confluence of the MA200 and 19MAY low.
Longer term, NASDAQ:AMAT will continue to post blowout earnings, which should lead to new ATH in late 2021/early 2022. In the meantime, we may see it continuing to trade on the lower side of FMV with a weak upward trend.
AMAT trade ideas
Watchlist AMAT for a possible call: with TAOverall idea: If AMAT breaks 133.51, calls with a PT to 141.50 will be a go. (SL at 129.90)
TA:
~Accumulation/Distribution line is sharply increasing, foreshadowing a strong incoming bull action
~MACD has just crossed over into the positive, hinting at upcoming bull action
~VI is at an intersection point, foreshadowing a reversal in momentum from its previous bear action
~RSI is at 50, giving it room to go either direction without much fear of being overbought/oversold
~ so far there have been two rejections of the 50 EMA since August 10. We are rapidly approaching a third test of this 50 EMA, which is also at the point where AMAT would need to go to break resistance. Put the two together, if 133.51 is broken, we not only would see a break of resistance, but also a cross over the 50 ema after a bounce off the long term support line.
Also want to point out the obvious: the wedge that is forming long time frame.
AMAT bounce?Looks like price bounced off the lower trend line. Earnings is coming up, but they've beat 4 out of 4. EPS keeps increasing each quarter.
I'm in if the price rises to $130.59. Good potential to raise the target. I'm probably being too conservative.
Weekly PUTS for Aug 20th are nice:
$120 bid of $0.61. -0.03 delta
$124 bid of $1.26
Earnings on the 19th.
AMAT strange patternAMAT has had these ridiculous sell offs multiple times only to make a new highs 14 days after bottoming out at the trendline. Kinda silly, looking like easy money. Loading the boat with 9/3 call options. I don't know who is pulling the strings of the market but it looks like a damn bot. AMAT new all time high September 1st.
Will AMAT break the terminal pattern extending from March?AMAT is in a coiling pattern that extends from March 2021 and may be looking to break out now.
Fundamentally:
* AMATs sales growth quarter-over-quarter has been more than 30%
* Its EPS is expected to grow over the coming year
Technically:
* AMAT is in a pennant pattern indicated by the white trend lines
* Recently broke back above a resistance of $135.34 which should now serve as support
* Is approaching a confluence of resistance at $142.12
Trade idea:
* AMAT is approaching a confluence of resistance around the $142.10 area
* Expect selling pressure around there
* Expect the $135.30 area to serve as support
* Look for buying opportunities around the $135.30 area
OR
* Wait for a daily break and close above $142 as a confirmation
Notes:
* A break and close below $135 would make $130 the next support level and a break below that could send the price to the bottom of the pattern
* A break above $142 can be expected in the coming week
* However, this may continue coiling using 135.34 as support and the white trend line as resistance until earnings