ASCENDING TRIANGLE BREAKOUT could continue making new highIndicators on the rise show no sign of slowing, and with the resistance of a channel that hasn't broken in 2 months, we could see that pattern shift in the next session or two,450.
AXON trade ideas
potential up this stock has at least 2 consecutive quarters > 10% surprise and > 100% YoY, potential up, publish idea for my own review in the future
$AXON popping out of a wedgeAXON stock popping out of a trendline after retracement or pull back. Remember it is at its All Time High (ATH) stock must be performing well due to its fundamentals.
Axon Shoots Prior To Generative AI Prototype NewsAxon Enterprise (AXON), the supplier of Tasers, body cameras and cloud-based software to law enforcement, blew past third-quarter earnings estimates This week. Axon stock rose back into buy range ahead of Wednesday's open.
Axon Earnings
Results: Axon reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.02. That was 26 cents ahead of estimates and up 70% from a year ago. Revenue grew 33% to $413.6 million vs. $391.1 million estimates. It was the seventh straight quarter with at least 30% growth.
Net revenue retention, meaning the extent to which existing clients either extended, expanded or reduced Axon contracts, was steady at 122%.
Outlook: Axon raised its full-year revenue outlook to $1.55 billion, equating to 30% growth and up from the prior range of $1.51 billion to $1.53 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is now seen at $322 million, up from the earlier implied range of $302 million to $306 million.
The new guidance implies full-year adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.8%, above the earlier guidance of 20%. Axon has a longer-term target of reaching a 25% adjusted EBITDA margin.
Axon said sales of its new Taser 10 stun gun, which nearly doubles the range of the Taser 7, grew about 50% sequentially. The biggest three orders came from international customers and the corrections industry.
Technical Analysist
Price Momentum
AXON is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average.
What does this mean?
Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.
Turning UpSince last Monday the stock knew the way down only. But after a new low yesterday it seems that the market is preparing for a correction. If the EMA can be exceeded then a good Fibonacci retracement is possible.
Rising need for innovative law enforcement solutions. AXON longQuantitative Analysis
• Earnings growth positive and above sector average
• Stock P/E on a premium to sector and positive
• Global Law Enforcement Software Market size is expected to grow from USD 16.4 billion in 2023 to USD 25.6 billion by 2028, according to a new report by Marketsand Markets.
• Increased rates and the changing nature of crime are major drivers for the rise in the need for innovative law enforcement solutions and services.
• Increase in US gun violence in recent years. Axon aims to cut gun-related deaths between police and the public by 50% in the next decade.
Business
• Strong demand for Axon Cloud SaaS services, Axon Fleet 3, and Taser 7
• New major products innovations – Taser 10 platform, body camera, Axon Body 4
• Axon Body 4 is currently being trialed by several agencies in the U.S. and will begin shipping in the second half of 2023.
• TASER 10 was unveiled in January 2023 and the company expects order volume to grow throughout 2023.
• Continuing to shift an increasing amount of business to a subscription model.
KPIs
• Full year 2023 revenue expected to be between $1.44 billion to $1.46 billion, reflecting approximately 22% year over year growth at the midpoint.
• Adjusted EBITDA margin of 20% in 2023.
• Expect stock-based compensation expense to be approximately $141 million for the full year.
• Expect 2023 CapEx to be in the range of $50 million to $65 million.
• Total company future contracted revenue expected to recognized between 15% to 25% of $4.8 billion over the next twelve months.
Catalysts
• Strong 2023 Q2 earnings
• Axon Body 4 and TASER 10 sales
• Investment in Cellebrite DI Ltd (“CLBT”)
Trade
Trade might take longer than expected to work. Targeting August 2023 earnings for movement.
AXON Entry, Volume, Target, Stop, ResistanceWhen price clears: 229.00
With average or better daily volume
Target: 268.00 area
Depending on your risk tolerance: 216.00 gets you 3/1 Risk/Reward.
Resistance: Near all time highs, clear skies above.
This trade idea is not trade advice. This idea is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not take this trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
$AXON Setting UpAXON has been a long time RS Leading stock. Nice tight range here with a narrow range setting up long.
$AXON tight at 21 EMANot signs of selling subsiding so might not be wise to come out yet but $AXON looking tight here pulling back to 21 EMA.
If you have to do something tomorrow, might be worth a low risk shot.
AXON Long IdeaI like AXON on a pull back to the box with targets at the Fib extensions above. No longer interested if price falls below the box. Breaking out now so an aggressive trader may want to enter right away for a quick pop into 230/235, but the stock is extended and that entry would not give great r/r to the first target at the 1.272. Needs support of the broader market so be mindful of todays reaction to Powell testimony.
AXON daily possible bullish moves but need to consolidate firstTHE CONSISTENT TRADES analyze AXON as a bullish /strong fundamental stock and therefore would be traded only in a long position.
AXON had two very strong weeks behind itself. Price found resistance at the recent top and start to consolidate on this level.
Volume is increasing which is not the best option for the bulls but is not bearish for now. Only a stronger/bigger red candle with a lot of volume would indicate the possibility of moving down.
Price is above all major MA which is bullish.
RSI is overbought and needs to cool down for future healthy move-up.
MACD formed bearish divergences and needs to continue to drop toward the zero line to cool down.
Overall: AXON is a very bullish and strong fundamental stock, however at the moment is at its extreme and needs to cool down a little bit. The perfect option for the bull would be for the price to drop at 0.38 Fib or 0.5 and then continue to pop up again. In that case, would form both Cap and Handle patter and ascending triangle which both are bullish. Significant pop above the blue dotted line with volume would trigger a long position, otherize we should wait a little bit for the cooling process before a new leg up and break out of this resistance area.
$AXON cup with handle setup$AXON looking orderly on this pullback as it is putting in the handle of its cup with handle base.
AXON weekly chart looks nice.AXON weekly chart looks nice, formed nice triangle with good volume to push it up.
$AXON tight @ its 50 MACalm open tonight on the futures.
Not seeing lots of quality setup to probably just see how things progresses tomorrow.
$AXON looks tight on its 50 MA but supply just a bit above make it hard to jump in.
Maybe tiny bit and build it up as it chew through that supply.
Axon (NASDAQ: $AXON) Must Be On Your Radar In The New Year! 🚨Axon Enterprise, Inc. develops, manufactures, and sells conducted energy weapons (CEWs) under the TASER brand in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, TASER and Software and Sensors. The company offers TASER X26P, TASER X2, TASER 7, and TASER Pulse CEWs; and related cartridges. It also provides on-officer body cameras and Axon Fleet in-car video systems; and Axon Evidence digital evidence management software; Axon Records, a cloud-based records management system; Axon Signal enabled devices; and computer-aided dispatch software, as well as Axon docks, cartridges, and batteries. In addition, the company offers hardware and cloud-based software solutions that enable law enforcement to capture, securely store, manage, share, and analyze video and other digital evidence. It sells its products through its direct sales force, distribution partners, online store, and third-party resellers. Axon Enterprise, Inc. has a strategic partnership with DroneSense, Inc. to provide public safety agencies with drone software solution, including piloting, administration, evidence management, and live streaming. The company was formerly known as TASER International, Inc. and changed its name to Axon Enterprise, Inc. in April 2017. Axon Enterprise, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
$AXON big pre-mkt moveStrong results and move setting up similar to $CAR though not as much short interest so stops should be tight. Looking at the chart if $198.50 holds or gets reclaimed after initial flush then can target move beyond previous highs of $212.50
$AXON Large 9 Months VCP Setup$AXON love the big 9 month base (zoom out on your chart to see it).
Starting to form a nice right said of its base.
would've liked 4 the vol pattern to be a bit stronger but with large bases, its not unnatural.
couple tighting (orange bars) will make for a low risk entry
Axon Enterprise Ponzied - Valuation MattersSecurity Security hype hype. NOMO FOMO. The Double topped blowoff occured. *rising rates environment
AXON Cup w/ Handle (Weekly Chart)AXON has strong fundamentals and is in the process of forming a Cup with Handle in the weekly charts. Pivot is at approximately $198.
AXON for LONG
- The RSI isn’t in over buying area looks good to continue upward movement.
- Looks like the is going to breakout the line trending and change the trend to upward
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
