BABA (Long Swing Idea - trendline bounce, fib retracement, S&R)Trade Rationale:
BABA is looking great for a 2 to 4 week expiration Options Call swing play. It is currently holding a previous resistance turned support area between $100 and $103. In confluence with this level, BABA has also completed a fibonacci retracement back to the 50% level almost perfectly. It is also holding the 200 ema on the 4H and Daily timeframes in confluence with the formation of a falling wedge and 3rd touch on the current uptrend support line (created from the lows of the Oct 24th and Nov 9th daily candles). While we're at it, let's go ahead and add in the bullish divergence on the 4H and Daily timeframes. NOTE: There are currently 4 gaps on BABA's chart right now, 2 above current price and 3 below current price.
Trade Idea:
I am looking to play calls with at least a 2 to 4 week expiration date with a strike price of 107c (Targeting the first gap above current price between $106.63 and $107.79.) The more time on the contract the less THETA decay eats away at the value of the contract. Also consider a contract with a breakeven close to your target as well as an options contract that doesn't have high Implied Volatility, because if IV slows and begins to revert back to the mean value your options contracts could still loss value from IV crush. Basically control for the effect that the options greeks will have on your contracts to maximize gains and minimize losses. My ultimate take profit is at the origin of the falling wedge which is also the beginning of the second gap above the current price between $113 and $116. I will look to place a STOP LOSS (Exit Trade) below $101.87 and 100.53 and will exit if a daily candle closes below these levels.
