BX trade ideas
BX Bullish SwingRetest Gap today. Near a resistance again so looking to exit pretty quickly after reaching 2R target. Entry point is right around the middle of two very solid support/resistance levels. I would prefer that this trade waits to trigger until Monday 1/30/17 while still getting another bearish candle tomorrow. This will allow the EMA's to catch up a little more.
BX To Continue Higher? Hey guys pre-earnings BX seems to have bounced on major breakout support. Is this the beginning of a new uptrend to the $35 pivot?
Technically the stock based out on strong accumulation volume throughout 2016 forming a triple bottom bullish breakout on strong volume. Currently we are hanging around a minor pivot at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
When it rains it pours on BXHistorically when the coppock curve reaches this level the stock drops at least 1% over the next few weeks with an average drop of more than 11%. I am looking at two levels over that time but also monitoring two timeframes for a significant loss to take place.
My conservative drop is around 25.81 where the stock floated multiple times since the election. This would only be a 4.53%, but conservatively most likely to be a sure thing.
The other play is near the bottom of the trendchannel. BX has dropped from the top of the channel to the bottom twice this year. The first occurred over 11 trading days and the second occurred over 53 trading days. Since BX is already beyond that 11 day point, I marked out 23 days (roughly half of 53) and 53 trading days. If the bottom of the channel is hit, it could happen within one of these timeframes.
A perfect storm of levels are pointing at January 17 (23 days from the top of the trend channel) and January 18 (roughly 10% drop from January 2). The 10 percent drop is a more conservative figure than the average 11.56% decline.
WHERE IS THE NEXT BOTTOM for BX??Historically when this level is reached on the VI, the stock drops at least another 1.19%. The average drop is 10.92%. A drop beyond 10.92% is not out of the question at this point.
The current trendchannel has a bottom more than 12% from the CLOSE on December 28. My conservative move is a drop to 25.95 where the stock hit eight days in a row at the end of November.
Last time the stock was at 27.33, it dropped 11.45% over the following 11 days which also supports a pending significant drop.
More good times ahead for Blackstone?Historically when the stock crosses above this RSI level it moves at least 1% over the next few weeks. The average move is 11.32%. A move of that magnitude is possible to a common resistance level around 34.85.
My conservative move would be to the 31.00 milestone so long as it breaks above its resistance level for this calendar year which is where it currently sits.
The best case scenario is to wait one more day to see if it breaks the 2016 resistance, especially on volume. If this occurs, my conservative goal is certainly in play but the next viable ceiling could be around 34.85. This stock has just received multiple STRONG BUY recommendations which could easily propel it.
BX - Great way to Own Apartments, Hotels and Office SpaceBX Bottoming Process + High Vol Support + IPOs to Resume + Private-Equity / Venture-Capital to SUCCEED. Great Dividends. Put Sell and Call Sell while making money on Dividends. ALL of this without owning any apartments or hotels or office space. I am long the stock right now, but getting ready to do a Call sell on it since up move seems to have ended as of 11/30/2016. As it starts to move down, and the stock bottoms, it is time to do an aggressive Put Sell and get your stock back if you lost it. Remember, you might have double ownership of the stock, so do NOT go in with a full position. Start with 1/3rd position.
Investment Managers Should Catch Up.Blackstone Group is back towards the bottom of the gentle up-channel started in 2009 (see weekly chart below).
Rebounded off a double-bottom on the daily chart in good volume, but not as much as the rest of the financials.
Similar story to another, smaller asset manager highlighted recently (please check LM idea).
1. Buy here with target 28.50 and stop 23.50 for a RR of 1.83x
2. Buy here with target 32.00 and stop 22.30 for a RR of 2.28x
3. Buy Jan 16'17 28.00 call at 0.32 and sell same maturity 23.00 put at 0.45
Support Area $37.85 bxBX held support 3x in 2014. Also appears to be forming nice cup & handle. They sold shares in La Quinta Holdings, and reduced their position by a third. Rental rates in the U.S. Continue to rise for commercial leases esp. in NY. I like the fact they are switching away from investing in Distress properties, and investing in more upscale but less vacant real estate such as their recent London Purchase
