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CMG trade ideas

REPUBLISHING CMG SHORT SALE REC FROM 9/19/2014 @666Chipotle Mexican Grill -CMG - Daily "With Qdoba (JACK) breaking out, and CMG rolled over and under 28+ days of supply at 675-680. If you can risk a rally to 682, just over a 2% rally, then I see reasonable chances for a drop to $625 or the middle of the gap from the July jump. Tim 11:40AM EST 9/19/2014 Friday" PS - It's always interesting to see when the stock chart gives a clue as to what the news is going to be. When you get this kind of technical setup ahead of news, it may really mean that top-notch researchers are right on top of traffic at CMG locations or that the information about each store revenue is getting leaked to an analyst or hedge fund and the word gets around the street. Perhaps the weakness in CMG was also a delayed reaction to the drop in the Russell 2000 Index this year as the strong momentum name stocks have been sold off down to more acceptable position sizes. To rephrase - CMG may have been suffering from money management strategies where portfolio managers were cutting down their positions in CMG since it was doing so well relative to the market. Good stocks can suffer this way as managers are forced to sell simply because the position size is now too large a percentage of their portfolio. Because of money management rules, good stocks can be sold off, which can make them look technically like shorts, but it doesn't always last long. There are plenty of reports out on the earnings, which you can dissect. All the best, Tim
NYSE:CMG
by timwest
CMG Cup&Handle pattern, potential gap coveringChipotle Mexican Grill formed bearish pattern called Cup&Handle with lower high (reversal candle) on 6th of October. Important level of support was at $649 and was broken yesterday with conviction. Combine it with $SPX break down of 200 EMA first time since long time and that is how you get in on the right side. Risk Management: ENTRY was at $649 break. After 3 outside down days it feels a bit oversold. Maybe, wait for a bounce to fill with better price. STOP above $660 makes sence if sellers want to keep pressure and momentum. Then we have $682 reversal point. TARGET: as there is no visible support below previous support I will put my target at $609 which was resistance before gap up on earnings.
NYSE:CMGShort
by andrew.berg
JACK versus CMG - Valuation MeasuresWith JACK, you get a valuation less than 2 times sales compared to over 5 times sales for CMG. CMG is 250% more expensive than JACK, or JACK is 60% cheaper than CMG on this basis. With JACK, you get 30% returns on equity, which compares very favorably with 20% for CMG. JACK is 50% better in this category. A major issue, and why JACK is cheaper, is that sales growth has been lagging at JACK but from what we can see on the horizon, the store openings will lead to more sales and more sales growth. CMG had 20% sales growth in the last 12 months, which compares very favorably to JACK. Putting the whole story together: If sales can begin to grow meaningfully, then JACK will get a huge bump in valuation as investors most likely will lighten up on CMG and move funds into JACK. JACK would be more than quadruple its current price if it had sales growth close to CMG. QUADRUPLE. More likely, CMG will fall and JACK will rise, relatively, over the coming quarters and years. Tim Friday, September 26, 2014 4:54PM EST
NYSE:CMGLong
by timwest
1
Will WS Reward or Punish $CMG?Its very common for growth stocks get either big smile or face brutal punishment. No mercy at all. For speculators, only u need to have a solid plan in place not in 2 days or one day or even the same day to trade this type of stock..Once IV collapses good to take a trade, or plan well ahead before it spikes not when its very expensive specially straddle/strangles traders. Now, P/C = 1.07 very tight but more important the sizzle index stands 2.7 what this tells u? No position, but will have one soon!
NYSE:CMG
by Xafada
1
Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG Daily - Post Earnings Price PatternThis is an observation that is showing up in a number of stocks so I thought I would share one with you. At first this was evident in the post-options-expiration environment in the overall market as viewed by the S&P500. Now, you can see CMG "post earnings" and then once the excitement is out of the market, it then returns to the price where the earnings were reported. I hope you like it or find it useful. Tim 6/3/2014 12:17PM EST
NYSE:CMG
by timwest
Chipotle Mex Grill CMG Daily - Rally to 50% and EPS resistanceCMG - ready for another go at CMG on the short side - The last stop was very close at only 1 ATR and it got hit right away. Oddly enough, that at least shows some strength in CMG for future reference. If CMG was very weak, it would have stopped at the key resistance level that I highlighted. The fact that it could get back up to the mid-point of the decline is a good sign for it longer term. CMG also tagged the earnings line that I have drawn here. That is a key resistance level and a low-risk level to sell short against. I missed pointing it out as a trading level for us here. The ATR(11) is 10.8 points, which means CMG is twice as volatile as the stock market. I see 555 now as a stop level and my target will be 510 instead of 500 on this 2nd effort. 542.65 last, -2.77 May 31, 2014 12:42PM EST Tim
NYSE:CMGShort
by timwest
1
Chipotle Mexican Grill - CMG - Daily - Low risk short sale hereCMG is rallying towards the half-way-back level of 548 from its recent high volume decline. The rally is on lower volume, which implies a weaker rally. The "EARNINGS SUPPORT and RESISTANCE" is also playing into this trade and the rally will very likely be halted at the 548 level from remaining sellers from the last earnings report. Keep in mind that CMG is rich in valuation, trading at 5.2 times sales. That is a crazy level of valuation for a restaurant stock. Sales have more than doubled in the last 4 years, which is a growth rate of 18%. After-tax margins are hovering near 10%. However you look at it, CMG is priced for massive growth and profits. The free cash flow is $300 million, which is less than 2% of its market value today. If you bought CMG today, that would be your return: 2%. Granted, that number is growing but so are the competitors. QDoba's are opening all over my area, for example. It will take another 4 years for this stock to grow into it's current valuation, in my opinion. Suggestion: Sell short: 548 stop. 502 target. Risk 1 ATR. Reward 3 ATR's. 11:36AM EST, May 28, 2014 536.96 last +0.92
NYSE:CMGShort
by timwest