Head and Shoulders/Bear Flags CRM has fallen past the 100% mark for the head and shoulders top.
Price was hanging on to the support line of another bear flag for a few days. Today is a bloody day in the market and price has broken the support line of the flag. A bear flag can break to the upside or the downside, so until the support line of the bear flag is broken with a down trend, it is not a valid flag. Folks measure targets in different ways, but I measure the pole and project it downward from the top trendline of the flag which would take price to the 1.272 fib level of the H&S pattern.
I looked at this on weekly and it looks like a Cypher or a Shark, M shaped pattern with peak 2 higher than peak 1, so this would be a bullish M when the final leg lands. The retracement leg, or leg 2, lands at the 0.5 which for me, does not rule either of these patterns out. The cypher's 2nd leg must land between the .382 and the .618 and the shark has no rule on the retracement leg except it can not go below 0. The shark is labeled OXABC and the Cypher is labeled XABCD. The Cypher should land close to the .786 of XC and the 2nd peak is labeled C. The Shark should land close to the .886 of OX, or the first leg up known as the impulse wave. In some cases the Shark can land at the 1.113 of OX.
I never feel certain when trying to differentiate these 2 patterns from each other unless the retracement had been at the .236 or deeper than .618, and then I know it is a shark. So I measure for both, and wait for price to land! If you know how to tell if a pattern is a Cypher or a Shark if the retracement is between .382 and .618, please post it below.
I did note that the .786 of the entire structure hits the 1.272 of the head and shoulders pattern and the .886 of the impulse wave if this were a shark, would hit the 1.618 of the H&S pattern, so there is confluence at both of these levels. I do not mean to be confusing but there are 2 patterns, the head and shoulders and a harmonic pattern and I am basically saying the levels below line up with each other. The harmonic pattern is easier to see on weekly.
The 1.113 fib level of the head and shoulders pattern has served as support as of late. If price falls below this level, there could be issues.
Time will tell.
Possible targets 1 down in orange type below price. Targets 2 in smaller type if price goes past targets 1.
Short is around 2 percent which is on the low side.
No recommendation.
Weekly chart
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