Double bottom?Today is not over, but with about 2 hours left I see a possible double bottom. Watching for a reversal. Stop set below these lows. Hope to never see it touched, but will protect the gains to fight another day.
CRWD trade ideas
Bullish as long as 168.67 holdsCrowdstrike is in the early days of the S-Curve for cybersecurity. The sector may have run up a ton in the last year due to COVID, but that doesn't mean that there isn't a lot more room for it to grow from here.
Fundamentals:
- I love the business model of being SaaS cybersecurity, they were the first to master this. The reason I love this is gross margins, which were 73% in 2020 and have been increasing steadily. The absolute leader in this is ADBE with ~87% gross margins, but hey CRWD is young!
- In another nod to ADBE, the SaaS company has 92% subscription revenue and a 77% YoY subscription revenue growth rate.
- Lastly, almost all of their customers have multiple products, a great sign that the subscription revenue is coming from diverse sources.
What isn't there to like?!
Technicals:
- First off, CRWD crushed the earnings estimates this quarter (on 18 March): $264.9M in revenue and an adjusted EPS of 13 cents, topping Street estimates of $250.5M in revenue and an adjusted EPS of 9 cents. What happened then? The stock jumped to ~$211/share the next day and has since fallen nearly 15% to $180. That pull back alone, driven entirely by no-news signals a buying opportunity!
- Second, I'm looking at this on a weekly chart to ensure a good long-term analysis. Since the November 2020 weekly consolidation to $118, we more than doubled to $251 in 14 weeks! Applying a Fib retracement to that trend, we can see that we pulled back exactly*** to the 0.618 level of 168.67. Now, that is truly a remarkable coincidence!
- Lastly, ~$150 would be my absolute stop loss. I like to think that we won't get there, but if $168.67 breaks, then this is the next level where we might find some longer-term support.
The Trade:
So, we established weekly (and daily) support at the higher low of $168.67, and have pulled back ~15% from the profit taking at earnings (and other market factors driving the name down). We have a nice cushion now to buy between $168.67 and $180, and have ST targets of $200, but really $251, the prior all-time high. I don't think CRWD will stop there though. For those of you who are interested in the truly long-term trade, I think this one is a hold until at least 2025, where I would set a price target around $400.
CRWD .5 Fib Fan Retracement... Are you NUTS?!!Chart indicated a .5 fib fan retracement. I fully expect the 10yr treasury to extend to a 2% in the next two weeks. When this happens and taking in account the recent triple top, I expect a extra bit of panic selling than we've seen so far thus a .5 retracement. I fully expect this to return to a 0 extension. I cleaned up my FEB 25 chart of excellence for a more precise fan. This is a hunch driven analysis rather than a historical based one.
CRWD Stock 21/03/21 Analysis 4H ChartNASDAQ:CRWD
- Trend Analysis -
📑Value: 6/20
📈Growth: 18/20
💰Profitability: 18/20
🚀Momentum: 16/20
💸Earnings: 10/20
🖇️Total Score: 68/100
Data:
Volume 7.38M
Average Volume (3 months) 4.35M
Previous Close $190.21
Open $192.88
Shares Outstanding 195.25M
Technicals:
( Simple Moving Average )
10D SMA $196.82 (-1.11%)
50D SMA $216.58 (-10.13%)
200D SMA $153.83 (+26.53%)
Market Cap $42.09B
Total Debt $778.99M
Cash $1.92B
Enterprise Value $40.95B
Revenue $874.44M
Gross Profit $644.89M
Net Income -
EPS Diluted -$0.43
Free Cash Flow / Share $1.34
$CRWD with a Bullish outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a Bullish outlook for $CRWD after a Positive under reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift A
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Crwd reversalHad a great earning and future guidance.
Recieved a few price upgrades in the range of 225-250 which fits right inside channel.
209.98 is Fib resistance/entry/ and future stop loss
Green lines are fib targets
50day ma at 217
Huge Vol
Mac d golden cross
Keep in mind quad witching is friday
$CRWD levels to watch, strong earnings beat$CRWD has posted another incredible quarter, and during a heightened time in cyber security. Once $QQQ settle with interest rates, this thing will be at ATHs. Love this name, price needs to confirm though!!!
$CRWD Crowdstrike Trading Range post earnings
CRWD has jumped in the after-hours on impressive earnings but that spike has been halted by the 20ma resistance.
The stock is now within support from the local Fixed Range POC @ $217 and the entire range POC at $220.
For the stock to break above this range it will need great strength in the overall market.
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CRWD has found local bottoms at spot on fibonacci levelsCRWD looks attractive having consolidated at 195-210 for quite a bit since a fibonacci retracement. Earnings and a raised guidance would push it higher, aiming for a retest of ATH
CWRD Triple Top .382 Bound?Not your typical triple top given the sequential three new highs; however, when placed against a Fibonacci fan, it fits perfectly. CWRD typically sees a .382 retracement between earnings during the past 3 quarters. Will we see a steep retracement to .382 just before earnings, a new fan created, or will we see a negative earning surprise?
still in lofty territoryLoving CRWD and cyber security for 2021. Compelled to wait for this to go on sale. Spent a couple hours looking for support and it's slim pickings. If it can't stay above the .786, there's a weak ledge to ricochet off and then a chasm the size of the grand canyon below it. Tight stops if you're pulling the trigger this week and next. 🤙🏽
Before earnings looks good. Bulls on the way to this....
Not sure about the entire market but trade until there is fed.
CRWD Likely to Bounce Back to $161Crowdstrike Holdings shares hit support this yesterday, and now they are starting to see a bounce back. Look to see steady growth over the course of the next week. I plan to hold them until they break $161, their all-time high. Good Luck!
$CRWDEntry price : 143.41
Fundamentals :
Sector: Software
EPS % Chg (Last Qtr): 214%
3 Year EPS Growth Rate: 0%
EPS Est % Chg (Current Yr): 0%
Sales % Chg (Last Qtr): 84%
3-Year Sales Growth Rate: 100%
Annual Pre -Tax Margin: -12.6%
CRWD Overbought and Looking BearishExpect Crowdstrike Holdings Shares to fall this week. They have pushed back up into the bearish zone and that means they are likely to fall soon. They are at the top of the RSI and the MACD appears bearish as well. They are still a great long-term investment, but they do not look good for the short term.
$CRWD Breaking Out?I've been keeping an eye on this one. I've traded it successfully in the past. I just opened an early starter position here after yesterday,s strong performance. My stop will be below yesterday's low. Ideas, not investing / trading advice.
