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CVNA trade ideas

CVNA Carvana Sell-Off: Hindenburg Research Short PositionIf you haven`t bought CVNA at $25: Carvana Stock Now Faces Major Risks: A Price Target of $127 Carvana Co. (CVNA), currently trading at $199, faces mounting scrutiny after allegations from Hindenburg Research. The short-seller’s report, titled “Carvana: A Father-Son Accounting Grift for the Ages,” accuses the company of unsustainable growth fueled by lax underwriting standards and questionable insider dealings. Key Concerns: Insider Selling: CEO Ernest Garcia III and his father, Ernie Garcia II, sold $3.6 billion in stock between 2020-2021, with an additional $1.4 billion sold last year after a 284% stock surge. Loan Portfolio Risks: Claims suggest Carvana approves nearly all loan applicants, increasing exposure to subprime defaults as economic conditions tighten. DriveTime Transactions: Allegations of inflated revenues through sales to DriveTime, owned by Garcia II, raise conflict-of-interest concerns. Manipulated Results: Extensions on subprime loans reportedly delay delinquencies, misrepresenting financial health. Outlook: While the stock has shown resilience, we believe these risks significantly outweigh the rewards. With questionable accounting practices and a vulnerable loan portfolio, our price target is $127.
NYSE:CVNAShort
by TopgOptions
1
Carvana - continuation of a strong sell off?Hi guys , we would be taking a look into CARVANA Short position. Fundamentals : 1. High Debt Levels Carvana's capital-intensive business model, combined with aggressive expansion, has led to a substantial accumulation of debt. The company has issued high-interest debt to finance operations, acquisitions, and inventory growth. This debt burden poses a risk, especially in a rising interest rate environment, as refinancing could become more expensive or unattainable. 2. Profitability Concerns Despite significant revenue growth over the years, Carvana has consistently struggled to achieve profitability. Operating losses remain high, and the company’s path to sustainable positive earnings remains uncertain. Elevated operating costs, including vehicle reconditioning, marketing, and logistics, have weighed heavily on margins. 3. Cash Flow Problems Carvana has a history of negative free cash flow, reflecting its inability to generate sufficient cash from operations to fund its business activities. This reliance on external financing is unsustainable in the long term and could lead to liquidity issues if the company fails to improve its cash flow position. 4. Declining Market Sentiment Carvana’s stock has been highly volatile, experiencing dramatic price swings due to market concerns over its financial stability and business model. Analysts and investors have expressed skepticism about the company's ability to weather economic downturns, especially as demand for used vehicles normalizes post-pandemic. 5. Macroeconomic Challenges The broader macroeconomic environment has added pressure to Carvana’s business. Rising interest rates have made vehicle financing more expensive for consumers, potentially dampening demand for used cars. Additionally, inflationary pressures on operational costs and declining vehicle prices further strain Carvana’s already thin margins. 6. Competitive Pressure Carvana operates in a highly competitive market, facing established players like CarMax and emerging online-only platforms. The intense competition has limited its pricing power, forcing the company to invest heavily in customer acquisition and retention, further straining profitability. 7. Regulatory and Legal Risks The company has faced legal challenges, including consumer complaints and regulatory scrutiny over its vehicle titling and registration practices. Such issues could lead to reputational damage, fines, or increased compliance costs. Technical Spectrum: They reached a good strong upper level, and then failed to deliver and sustain around that area. Entry: 176$ Target: 130$ As always my friends happy trading! P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
NYSE:CVNAShort
by DG55Capital
CVNA Broadening WedgeThis was a stock that I missed out on in 2021/2022, it was a very obvious short and I didn't take it. Fell from $375 all the way down to $5. Now it is giving us all another chance, many reasons to be short on this stock, but the latest Hindenburg report makes it even better. Watching for it to break below its channel, ideally it would come back for a retest for the perfect entry. This is one I'd be comfortable buying LEAPS or at least 3-6 months of time on and forget it. Gotta be careful shorting in a market like this for now, but will definitely take it if it breaks. Not until then, it would still have a long way to fall. This has got to be one of the most overvalued stocks in the market with the likes of PLTR and MSTR. These are the names I'll be looking to build larger and longer term short positions on while I still can before the market collapses. Ultimate long term target for this would be from around $60 - $40. Really good opportunity here IMO.
NYSE:CVNAShort
by AdvancedPlays
Stock Of The Day / 01.03.25 / CVNA01.03.2025 / NYSE:CVNA Fundamentals. 5% drop after negative report from Hindenburg Research. Technical analysis. Daily chart: Correction on an uptrend. The stock looks weaker than the market. Premarket: Gap Down on moderate volume. We mark the level of 182.00, the low of the previous session's post-market. Main session: The price continued its local downtrend after an attempt to grow in the first half of the trading session. The first attempt to break through the level of 182.00 at 13:57 did not lead to a significant pullback and the price continued to squeeze towards the level. After the second touch, we observe an even weaker pullback, which indicates the weakness of buyers. After the breakdown and retest, the price holds the level of 182.00 from the opposite side of the level. We are considering a short trade. Trading scenario: breakdown with retest of level 182.00 Entry: 181.34 exit down from the range on increased volume. Stop: 182.16 we hide it behind the level. Exit: Close part of the position at 15:22 when a reversal candlestick pattern appears. Close the remaining part of the position above 177.72 when the structure of the downtrend is broken. Risk Rewards: 1/5
NYSE:CVNAShort
by AlexX31
Revisiting The 2021 Stock Picker Bull MarketThe charts of companies like Applovin, Carvana, and Twilio are all companies that, at one point, were high flyers during the 2020/21 bull market. However, they are also poster child's for its subsequent collapse. But then again, pay close attention to the charts that I've shared here... something is brewing. Applovin: A Sudden Vertical Surge Starting with Applovin (far left panel), the stock has gone vertical recently and what's most fascinating about that is the simple fact that the naysayers who were saying it was a bubble have been blown out. Not only has it reclaimed its prior all-time highs, but now it's also soaring to new heights as one of the year's best performers. Carvana: Rising from the Ashes? In the middle chart, Carvana’s chart is equally jaw-dropping. Once the poster child for pandemic-era excesses, Carvana’s bubble famously popped in 2022. The steep decline appeared terminal for the company’s stock price. Yet here we are, with Carvana now climbing back a significant chunk of its losses. In my view, this rebound reflects an emerging trend: the market’s willingness to forgive past excesses. Twilio: From Bust to “Interesting” Finally, Twilio’s chart (far right panel) shows a similar recovery story. After its epic collapse in 2022, Twilio found itself trading in the bargain bin. Now, the stock is seeing renewed interest. While the rise isn’t as steep as Applovin’s or Carvana’s, the pattern of recovery is unmistakable and it's why I am writing this post: is something brewing? Are these companies for real? Can they print money for investors, emerge into new sectors, build new products, and expand? It seems that the builders are clearly emerging. I write all of this to say the following – I believe there are a basket of stocks that are falling into this category and as we had into 2025, you should have your watchlist ready. I will soon be publishing my extensive watchlist on this subject. Stay tuned!
NYSE:CVNA
by scheplick
1
CVNA: Prepping for a Symmetrical Triangle BreakoutCarvana (CVNA) is shaping up into a nice symmetrical triangle on the hourly chart. This type of pattern typically signals consolidation before a breakout, and it's looking like we’re getting close to a decision point. Price has been consistently making higher lows and lower highs, squeezing tighter within the triangle. Right now, it’s testing the upper trendline around the $250 level, and the volume is starting to pick up—something to watch closely. What I’m Seeing: Triangle Formation: Clear symmetrical triangle, which could break either way. Key Levels: Bullish breakout: Above $250.00 Bearish breakout: Below $240.00 Game Plan: If it breaks up: I’m looking to go long on a strong move above $250, ideally with some volume behind it. Targets would be $260, $270, and potentially $280. If it breaks down: I’d consider shorts below $240, aiming for $230 and $220. Managing Risk: Stop Loss: Longs: Below $240, in case of a failed breakout. Shorts: Above $250, to avoid getting caught in a fakeout. This one is all about watching the breakout direction. The triangle setup is clean, and with some patience, this could turn into a solid trade. Let’s see where it goes.
NYSE:CVNALong
by lcomerennah
2
30% correction, then more than 100% upsideThe whole analysis is based on Elliott Wave Analysis: I believe that we have only just ended the Wave A of Wave (5), heading into a wave B, acting as a corrective move. Idealy, I would like the price to dip into the 0.5 to 0.618 retracement zone (165-180). This might take a while, but once this correction is over, I see a very strong move upwords, as a wave C of (5). This should take us to a new ATH anywhere between 400 and 515 (more precise predictions can be made as we approach the mid to end of the wave C). I would probably wait till the correction is over to buy, 185-180 acting as a buying zone!
NYSE:CVNA
by BoutToBust
5
CVNA: Carvana’s Relentless Rally with No Signs of SlowingCarvana (CVNA) has been on an absolute tear, with no signs of slowing down. Explosive Rally: CVNA recently shattered key resistance levels and is now pushing toward the ambitious target near $260—a near 100% potential gain from current levels if the momentum keeps driving upward. Relentless Uptrend: Riding a sharp ascending trendline, CVNA is sticking close to its highs without much of a correction in sight. The SMA 150 is finally turning up, echoing the strength of the long-term trend shift. Volume & Momentum: Volume’s been building up, fueling this rally. The RSI is riding high, yet this stock shows no interest in taking a breather. CVNA’s got that “all gas, no brakes” energy that keeps bulls excited. Bottom Line: CVNA’s relentless uptrend and strong targets make this a chart that demands attention. With solid momentum, volume support, and fierce trend strength, Carvana looks like it’s got a lot more road ahead.
NYSE:CVNALong
by GarryBlack
What Is a Parabolic Arc Pattern, and How Can You Trade It?What Is a Parabolic Arc Pattern, and How Can You Trade It? The parabolic arc pattern is a significant formation in technical analysis, showcasing rapid, exponential price movements that signal significant bullish momentum followed by sharp reversals. This article delves into identifying, trading, and managing the risks associated with parabolic arcs. Understanding the Parabolic Arc Pattern The parabolic arc or parabolic curve is a technical chart pattern that signals a potential reversal. It is characterised by a steep, exponential rise in asset prices, followed by a sharp decline. Characteristics of the Parabolic Arc Pattern - Gradual Start: Initially, prices rise slowly and steadily. - Acceleration Phase: The price movement becomes more rapid, often driven by increasing speculation and market excitement. - Exhaustion Phase: Prices reach a peak where the upward momentum cannot be maintained, leading to a sharp downturn. This pattern can be seen across various markets, including stocks, forex, cryptocurrencies*, and commodities. It often occurs during speculative bubbles when market sentiment becomes overly optimistic. The pattern's unique shape makes it identifiable, but it requires careful analysis to distinguish it from other formations. The parabolic arc chart pattern has been observed in numerous historical market events. Notable examples include the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and the Bitcoin surge in 2017. However, they can occur across all timeframes. If you find a parabolic curve on a low timeframe, it may look like a long bullish candle, typically closing near the highs, on a higher timeframe. The parabolic arc trading pattern is unique in that, unlike the head and shoulders or double top patterns, which have more symmetrical and predictable formations, the parabolic arc is asymmetrical with a steeper rise and a sudden drop. This distinct shape can offer valuable insights into market psychology and potential future movements. To identify your own parabolic arc chart patterns, head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform to explore a wide range of markets and trading tools. The Psychology Behind the Parabolic Arc Pattern The parabolic arc pattern is heavily influenced by market psychology, primarily driven by two emotional extremes: greed and fear. In the initial stages of the pattern, optimism and speculation dominate, causing prices to rise rapidly. This is often fueled by Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), where traders rush to buy, believing the price will continue to soar indefinitely. As prices climb steeply, the psychological effect intensifies, leading to more aggressive buying. This phase is characterised by euphoria, where rational analysis takes a back seat to the prevailing bullish sentiment. Investors and traders, seeing rapid gains, are convinced the rally is unbreakable, which propels prices even higher. Along the way, some traders will begin to take potential returns while others will enter short positions. This creates pullbacks or ranges within the bullish trend, sometimes called ‘bases,’ that move in a stair-stepping fashion. Generally speaking, there are often three or four bases in a parabolic trend, though there can be fewer or more. The break in the uptrend often prompts a new wave of euphoric buying, leading to another surge higher. However, this fast growth is unsustainable. Eventually, it reaches a tipping point where the exhaustion phase kicks in as early investors start to take potential returns, leading to a shift in sentiment. Fear sets in as prices begin to reverse sharply. The same emotional drivers that fueled the ascent—greed and FOMO—now contribute to panic selling and rapid price declines. In the same way a positive feedback loop drives euphoric buying, this negative feedback loop can cause traders to scramble for the exit door and prompt a sharp reversal almost as steep or steeper as the initial ascent. Identifying the Parabolic Arc Pattern Identifying the parabolic arc pattern in trading involves recognising a distinct, exponentially rising price trajectory. This pattern typically follows a period of sideways accumulation, where prices move horizontally with minimal fluctuation. The transition from this phase to a parabolic rise marks the start of the pattern. Key Characteristics A curved line can be drawn connecting the successive higher lows of the price action. This line's slope increases at an almost exponential rate, visually representing the accelerating price movement. The steepening of this curve is a hallmark of the parabolic arc, indicating increasing buying momentum. Volume Analysis Volume can play a critical role in identifying and confirming the parabolic arc pattern. As prices begin their rapid ascent, trading volume often surges, reflecting heightened market interest and speculative buying. The constant increase in volume is crucial for validating the strength and sustainability of the pattern. A significant rise in volume during the parabolic phase suggests strong participation from traders, further driving prices upward. Technical Indicators The Parabolic SAR indicator is a valuable tool for identifying parabolic arc patterns. This indicator places dots above or below the price, signalling potential reversal points. During a parabolic rise, the Parabolic SAR dots will trail below the price, confirming the uptrend. While short-term corrections in the parabolic ascent will plot dots above the price, there will typically be fewer dots vs those below the price. As the pattern approaches its peak and the price movement starts to decelerate, dots will also begin to appear above the price, indicating a potential correction. However, while there may have been only a few dots above the price during the parabolic movement, there will likely be a greater number of dots above the price as the trend begins to cool, as seen in the chart above. It’s important to note that this can be a visual cue that the parabolic trend is ending, but the lagging nature of the Parabolic SAR indicator means that it comes with a significant delay. It’s best used as confirmation of a parabolic trend or reversal rather than a sole indicator of a parabolic ascent. Trading the Parabolic Curve Chart Pattern The parabolic curve chart pattern is a powerful yet risky formation. As buyers are in complete control, leading to a strong bullish trend, it’s unclear when the trend reverses as traditional momentum indicators like RSI can indicate overbought conditions, often giving false signals. A parabolic curve trading strategy involves two main focal points: buying the uptrend and shorting the reversal. Buying the Uptrend Trading the uptrend of a parabolic arc can be highly rewarding, but it's also fraught with risk. The bullish trend is strong, and buyers dominate the market, making it challenging to determine an optimal entry point. Therefore, traders often use shorter timeframes. Typically, the risk-reward payoff might not be favourable as traders are effectively buying high with the aim of selling higher. According to the theory, it’s best to avoid entering trades when the ascent is near vertical due to the high probability of a sharp reversal. This is a shorter timeframe of the Carvana stock. Early Entry Points Traders often look to get involved in the early stages of the parabolic arc, typically after a breakout from a sideways accumulation phase. During this phase, the price may follow a stair-stepping pattern, making it more probable the uptrend will continue. Waiting for a Pullback Another strategy involves waiting for a pullback in the strong trend. Traders might look for such signals as the price reaching a previous resistance point that now acts as support or the RSI on a lower timeframe showing oversold conditions. Setting a buy stop at the high of the pullback with a stop loss below the low allows traders to participate in the breakout and subsequent legs higher. Taking Profits Taking profits during a parabolic arc can be challenging. Traders could scale out, closing portions of their position at set intervals or risk-reward ratios. Another method is using significant resistance areas or round numbers as targets. Additionally, trailing a stop below the lows that form along the way can help in capturing gains while potentially protecting against a sudden reversal​. Shorting the Reversal Shorting a parabolic arc requires waiting for clear signs that the trend is reversing. This approach can be more effective but also demands precision and patience. Identifying Reversal Signals Key signals for a trend reversal include the price beginning to move near-vertically before closing below the parabolic curve trendline. Other indicators are long bearish wicks, gaps down (mostly in the case of a parabolic stock pattern), and lower lows being created. Monitoring market sentiment can also provide clues; for instance, Alternative.me’s crypto* fear and greed index and CNN's stock fear and greed index can indicate an impending reversal in these assets when they show extreme greed. However, a close outside the curve’s trendline is ultimately seen as the key signal. Once traders suspect a reversal, they typically enter a short position with a market order, setting a stop loss above the recent high. Taking Profits According to theory, profit-taking strategies for short positions include targeting significant support areas that previously acted as resistance. Fibonacci retracement levels, typically the 0.382 to 0.786 levels, are commonly used for setting profit targets. Specifically, parabolic ascents usually precede a sharp reversal, meaning they often correct beyond 0.5 (i.e., a 50% correction), falling between 0.618 and 0.786. Similar to long positions, trailing the stop may help capture more of the downward move. Challenges and Risks Associated with Parabolic Curve Trading Trading parabolic curves comes with significant challenges and risks. The primary risk is the high probability of a sharp reversal, as the pattern's near-vertical ascent is unsustainable. This can lead to substantial losses if traders enter the market late or fail to manage their risk properly. Volatility Parabolic arcs are marked by extreme volatility. Rapid price increases can be followed by equally swift declines, making it difficult for traders to react timely. This volatility can lead to significant slippage, where orders are executed at prices different from those expected, especially if the catalyst is a notable news event. False Signals Indicators like the RSI, Stochastic, and MACD can signal overbought conditions prematurely. In a parabolic trend, these false signals can mislead traders into exiting positions too early or entering short trades too soon​. Psychological Factors The intense fear of missing out (FOMO) can drive irrational buying, inflating the asset price to unsustainable levels. Conversely, panic selling during the reversal can exacerbate losses. Managing emotions and maintaining discipline is crucial but challenging during such volatile phases. Risk Management Effective risk management is essential but difficult to implement in real-time. Setting appropriate stop-loss orders and profit targets can be tricky due to the rapid price movements​. However, it’s important to predetermine an exit strategy and stick to it. The Bottom Line Understanding and trading the parabolic arc can offer substantial opportunities, but this pattern also comes with significant risks. By recognising the pattern early and employing effective strategies, traders can potentially enhance their trading performance. For a reliable trading experience, consider opening an FXOpen account, where you can access advanced tools and resources to navigate the complexities of parabolic arc trading. FAQs What Is a Parabolic Arc Pattern in Trading? A parabolic arc is a chart pattern characterised by a rapid, accelerating price movement that forms a parabolic shape on a chart. This pattern typically indicates strong bullish momentum followed by a sharp reversal. The steep ascent often results from speculative buying, driven by investor enthusiasm or fear of missing out (FOMO)​. How to Trade Parabolic Arcs? Trading parabolic arcs involves two main strategies: buying the uptrend early and shorting the reversal. Traders look for early signs of the pattern forming after a sideways accumulation phase and avoid entering when the ascent is near vertical. Shorting typically occurs when clear reversal signals appear, such as a break below the parabolic trendline or significant bearish indicators. What Is a Parabolic Arc Stock Pattern? A parabolic arc stock pattern is a specific formation observed in stock charts where the stock price rises steeply, forming a parabolic shape. This pattern often results from intense speculative buying and is followed by a dramatic price correction. It's common in high-momentum stocks and reflects significant shifts in market sentiment​. How to Use Parabolic SAR in Forex Trading? The Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) is used in forex trading to identify potential reversals in the market. It places dots above or below the price to signal the direction of the trend. Traders use it to set trailing stop-losses and identify entry or exit points during strong trends. *At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NYSE:CVNAEducation
by FXOpen
2
CVNA heads up at $209 then 219: Major hurdles to strong uptrend CVNA has been flying off the bottom 2 yrs ago. Latest bull wave may be coming to end soon. Earnings due soon, should make the decision. $ 209.35 - 209.98 is the immediate resistance. $ 219.04 - 222.96 is a major cluster of 3 fibs. $ 233.74 - 234.60 is an overshoot target above. $ 195.31 - 196.95 is the first (moderate) support $ 180.87 - 182.38 is a better (stronger) support. $ 171.58 - 173.68 is critical (strongest) support. ============================================ .
NYSE:CVNA
by EuroMotif
Looks to continue to the upper bands length 215 before retrace The uptrend isn't parabolic, but another name for it, I guess. But we understand indicators can move along in time, and the retrace hasn't been favorable to bears. A stretch outside the Keltner and/or a touch at the second layer of resistance may be enough to bring this down more than a peg or two. It's to be seen, but for now, I'm bullish on continuation to the upside along the upper band, almost like distribution.
NYSE:CVNALong
by themoneyman80