DE Deere & Company Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of DE Deere & Company prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 377.50usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-12-15,
for a premium of approximately $9.65.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
DE trade ideas
💵 E a r n i n g s J o u r n a l📶 S T A T I S T I C A L A N A L Y S I S
Current 50-Day Market Trend: short/sellers/negative.
Next Swing: negative swing to support.
Next Wave: sell wave to the range.
Next 50-Day Market Trend: long/buyers/positive.
Trade Type: Touch & Go don't wait for a close.
💵 E A R N I N G S A T A G L A N C E
Market Capitalization: 110.635B
Release Date: 11/22 BMO
Quarter: FQ4'23
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Revenue Anticipations: positive surprise of Revenues.
Revenue Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #2
Revenue 2-Year Trend: the company trend in Revenues is positive.
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EPS Anticipations: positive surprise of EPS.
EPS Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #6
EPS 2-Year Trend: the company trend in EPS is positive.
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📝 S Y N O P S I S
🟢 Buy ~ If the earnings report is above the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will buy the +surprise.
⚪ Neutral ~ If the earnings report is released with complicating press, I expect the market will avoid the surprise and invest in alternative securities.
🔴 Sell ~ If the earnings report is below the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will sell the -surprise.
🔎 R E S E A R C H D E P T H
Technical Analysis: daily chart.
Fundamental Analysis: EPS & Revenue data.
Press/News: none.
Social Media: none.
☝️ P R O V I S I O N
The analysis presented is incomplete work thereby can't safely trade in the Market by itself.
John Deere can move up 20% from current levelsThe latest impulse in this American agricultural machinery and heavy equipment manufacturer was spotted beginning in May 2023 and got over in July 2023.This impulse is marked wave i on chart.
Between late July and late Oct. the stock made a very deep 78.6% retracement of the advance (wave i).
The corrective counts now seems to be have come to an end in this stock as also it is slowly emerging out of the falling wedge pattern.
Wave iii target is projected around $460-475 zone(around 20% from CMP) and previous wave i high was at 450. Both these levels would be crucial levels towards which the stock will start marching going forward.
On the downside the swing lows of 358.8 and 363.01 are crucial supports for the stock.
Note*- This chart is for educational purpose only.
DE - buy into earnings?NYSE:DE has frequently pivoted on earnings over two year consolidation period. It's major price reversals have also respected the fib time zones that I've drawn on this chart. I would look at a move below $345 as invalidation of the uptrend and stronger possibility that we move into a stage 4 downtrend.
DE 123 PatternHere is a 1-2-3 Pattern better known as a 3 Bar Play accompanied by a pennant pattern on the 5m (LTF). The CVol (Closing Volume) finished extremely bullish providing supporting confluence for the overall context of my bullish bias. Will be looking to ride up to next level as long as price holds above the green "Calls" level.
DE bull flagSimple bull flag within an uptrend on DE. If you look at the previous consolidation before the impulse move there is a similar pattern which you can expect a similar reaction BUT nothing is ever 100%. Trim majority at high leave runners after. % SL or last 10m candle before breakout candle.
DE falling into undervalued territory / Favorable Earnings LONGDE on the 4H chart is now setup for a long trade. It is now positioned just above a long term
anchored VWAP to which a stop loss can be set just below @ 390. DE was falling before
favorable earnings and has not yet reversed. I see this as an opportunity to trade an
industrial blue chip taking entry well below fair value and so a bargain.
I will get a mixture of a handfulof stock shares and a single option 4 months to expiration. The
target is selected to be 445 at the upper Bollinger bands confluent with the second deviation
line of the anchored VWAP. This is about 13% upside- while the option's profit potential is
substantially higher. If you would like to know the details of the call option leave a comment. (
if this idea is of interest considering liking and following :)
Juice is not worth the squeezeWith the move today of NYSE:DE approaching the levels of $422, I think the upside is minimal when compared to the potential downside here.
1)I see a trend line approaching
2)I see a resistance crowded area here
3)I see a bearish Cypher pattern forming that might take it to the $390 area.
Not financial advice, good luck to all :)
DE could breakout only if....?NYSE:DE is trying to hold above to break out of its bull flag. This is one of the companies that a lot of investors would run to if there's a sector rotation out of tech. With a 1.19% dividend and potential growth ahead, you could see DE attempt to test the resistance around 418.
Bullish Case - There is little to argue in favor of a bear case for this ticker today. With the bull flag at the brink of a breakout, if not already breaking out, this could be a 425 ticker in a short amount of time. I would like to see the price above 408.39 to take a safe entry to the upside and consider profits at 418.
Bearish Case - The sell-off at the end of the day could signal that the market is exhausted when it comes to DE. If it breaks the level of 397.06, we could see an attempt to fill the imbalance below to 400 or as low as 390. Right now, this looks like a failure swing for the upside when it pushed back down below the bull flag breakout.
Conclusion - DE is in a bit of a no man's land. When it pulled back, it formed what could be the beginnings of a harami candle pattern. Though you could argue this could be a breakout retest, it's too close for comfort, making the bear case seem more relevant. It's safer to take the trade above 408.39 than to be too presumptuous. We have to see where it goes from here.
Bullish above - 408.39
Bearish below - 397.06
DE traders buy on favorable earningsDeere Company had favorable earnings in May reporting quarterly earnings of about 3.5 % on
their share's market price. DE is a blue-chip industrial sector stock comparable to CAT. It not
a fast mover but very suitable for options trading or investment. On the 4H chart DE had been
trending down through earnings in a descending parallel channel and relying on a lower VWAP
for support. At the middle of this past week, DE made its reversal move into a trend up. This
was accompanied by a change in the volume to predominantly buying volumes relatively high
compared with the period before the earnings. This surge of volume of sorts is the fuel for
upward price action. The zero-lag MACD indicator shows moving average divergence Price is
breaking out of the channel moving towards the mean VWAP and POC line of the volume profile.
demonstrating bullish momentum. Accordingly, I see DE as well setup for a long trade.
( SL $345 pivot low TP1 $400 ( 1 std above mean VWAP ) TP2 $420 ( 2 std above mean VWAP)
DE - looks temptingThe recent pullback for NYSE:DE looks tempting, but I'm not adding right now. I will monitor price until we get in between the FOMC and earnings in May. I'm eying anything between 347-360 as a strong opportunity to accumulate.
DE is a core holding for me. They have strong dividend growth, low payout ratio, and a strong history of earnings beats. They are a leader in their space, switching costs are high, demand for products in their sector will continue to grow, and replacement demand can only be postponed temporarily. The management team seems to have navigated adversity well, which is critical with geopolitical tensions running hot.
DE has a history of volatility around earnings releases and outlook for industrials is influenced by monetary policy. The industrials surged 26% from the September lows to the March highs. They corrected sharply after the March FOMC and their recovery pulled back again when the ISM manufacturing PMI came in below forecast. DE's price movements coincide with its index, but it typically outperforms the S&P, where the index tends to underperform the S&P.
In this chart we see that movement into the lower portion of the rising channel are an infrequent and rewarding opportunity. Momentum and lack of meaningful company updates suggests that the current downtrend will follow the industrial index and that we may see such an opportunity. I will take any opportunity that I see near the center of the blue circled area and then likely take some profit above the solid green trendline. I've drawn a fib time zone that starts with the April 2022 drawdown. It has aligned with major price reversals and has an upcoming marker in May in between the FOMC and earnings.
Deere and Co Continues to Meet with Gravity. DEABCD completed, reverse confirmed by break of trendline. Fibonacci for incoming retracement, and it already looks like this was an early catch.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe.