DIADIA still has to fill the gap created on March 17, 2014. When it does, do not be surprised to see the lows of the year tested.
DIA trade ideas
DIA possible bearish reversal at small Gartley patternThere is a small bearish Gartley Fib Pattern in the DIA that could present itself as a very unique selling opportunity during the remainder of this week.
SOMETIMES very small bearish Gartley patterns nail very important final tops in markets and stocks.
However, important confirmation needs to present itself in the form of price candlestick signals assuming we move up into the 164 zone.
If we do get into 164 zone then look for candlestick price reversal signals.
End of month, end of quarter 'window dressing' may create small upward bias into end of this week.
So if all goes according to plan we should start to see a key bearish reversal from this small bearish Gartley late this week or early next week.
Early next week is indicated to be a panic cycle week according to Marty Armstrong and the following weeks after next week are indicated to be high volatility.
This small bearish Gartley pattern may be nailing a very unique top and shorting opportunity in 2014 !!!!
but needs confirmation at the 164 zone of clear reversal !!!!
The fly in the ointment with this type of potential pattern setup is that if the DIA exceeds the 164 with confidence on a closing basis, then the situation could turn in the exact opposite resolution (extreme upside market breakout and strength).
SPDR DOW 30 ETF DIA IS BOTH AN UPTREND & DOWNTREND SPDR DOW 30 ETF DIA BOTH UPTREND & DOWNTREND
Wednesday 3/19/2014
There are two trends in place since the market is above the 10-day mode at 161.50. The 10-day mode is now 13-days. Why? Because 3 more days have accumulated at the 161.50 level and now the market has disconnected from 161.50 by trading, on Tuesday, completely above the 13-day mode.
If you currently have no position - You can go long here at 163.45 with a stop and reverse at 161.50 so that you go short at 161.50.
If you are already short: The downtrend is also in place but today is the last day of the downtrend time. The market is also below the two-mode areas labeled above at 164 and 163.6-163.18.
This is how a market "balances out" after a period of strong trending action. A market isn't always going to "trend" and allow us to pull endless cash out of it.
Let's hope for more big trends but I am fine if there isn't one for awhile.
Tim 10:36AM EST 3/19/2014
DOW JONES SPDR DIA DAILY FAILED UPTRENDThe downtrend from the January high met all normal "trending" characteristics and guidelines.
The uptrend from the February low so far has failed the general trending guidelines and has failed to rally in price or in time that suggests that the market is NOT ACCUMULATED and rather is IN DISTRIBUTION at the current level.
The 163.18 level is key resistance and only if the market can climb above this 163.57 level will the uptrend be re-confirmed.
A healthy market will rally for 10 days from a 10-day accumulation. Time runs out today on the uptrend, which means that at the end of today if the market is below 163.18, it is wise to go short and place a stop above 165, while looking for a drop down to the 158 level (the last consolidation).
Tim 3/17/2014 10:18AM EST 162.39 last
The Dow about to start another bear leg?The fib target is based on the current high of this week's candle, it is subject to change as price changes. I used the AB=CD method to find the next leg's potential target as well as trend lines and possible elliott wave count.
DIA - Second leg down below the outside candle?We had a very strong pullback after the recent selloff followed by a large bearish outside candle. Perhaps another leg down is coming. With targets at the unfilled gaps below and a stop above the high of the outside candle we get R/ R ratios of 1.3 and 3.
TESTING OF LOWER MEDIAN LINE PARALLELLet's wait for EOD to see how price reacts to the lower median line parallel.
A break below this lower median line parallel means a bearish market.
If we see a nice pin bar formed, there is a chance of a possible reversal back to the uptrend.
DIA Upside ChopI'm looking for the DIA to resets at the very least the 38.2% fib. If we go higher, look to see how it reacts in each of the listed targets on the chart.
Fractallian ForecastTopping (usually) is a process. 1929 an exception to that rule, but even that formation put in a right shoulder before dropping more than 50% over a few short months. Wait for a bounce to gap-fill just shy of 164 to pile onto the short side, stops at all time high.
DIA - Bat Pattern and possible reversal before a second leg downThere is a Bat Pattern coming up in the DIA.
I expect a reversal at the .886 retracement and then another leg down. Should price build a trading range above the .886 level and before reaching it, prices will probably break through it and into the support zone.
FORECAST FOR 2014 FOR DJIA (DIA)For those of you who know me from my previous posts - I have tried my best to draw the outline of the market going 6-12 months into the future. I have merely "cloned" my previous charts and you can see what those forecasts looked like on this chart. I realize it is a bit cluttered on the chart, but I think the relevant points are on here and you can review what I have said "untouched" from before. So, here it goes:
2014 Forecast:
The market has not built enough time up here to sustain a long term rally. But with more time at lower levels then accumulation can develop and the bull market can continue. However, from current levels the market is not on sturdy ground. The market is stretched up at 165 and support is down at 149 and implies a downside risk of 10%. The time of the last consolidation was 12 weeks and we are in the 12th week of the rally. So, time has run out. Since the market has needed 20 weeks of accumulation before each previous rally, it is bearish to me that it only took 12 weeks in this latest accumulation.
The factors driving the market until now have been clear (stock buybacks, earnings growth, Fed driven low interest rates, equity fund inflows), but we are ahead of rational long term valuations and I would not recommend committing new funds to this market.
I am concerned about several areas: Corporate leverage is up. Valuations are stretched as stocks have been top performers. Margin buying is at record levels. Investors are optimistic again. Analysts seem unanimous in forecasting higher prices. Demographic trends are pointing down for several years, implying weak economic growth (See Harry Dent's newest book, just released this week). This is a great time to do the opposite of the analysts forecasting another 10%-15% gains and walk away instead.
A great alternative will be picking individual stocks and getting back in when prices are lower. I'm happy to take the risk of avoiding any further upside to this market. For now, sit in cash and if you have knowledge about put and call options, you can utilize strategies to give away the upside (selling call options) return in exchange for protecting against a move to the downside (buying put options).
Happy New Year to all and here is to a successful 2014 at TradingView!
Cheers,
Tim Jan 9, 2014 12:10PM EST
REVIEW OF 2013 FORECAST FOR THE DJIA by Tim WestOverall, this was a decent forecast of the primary movement of the market for 2013.
The previous year's forecast was also decent and this brings me to 2014 and forcing myself to sit down and weigh out the overall landscape of supply and demand for equities, the levels of sentiment across the spectrum and weigh out which way I believe the market will move for the year.
Cheers to a great 2013 and wishing you all another great year ahead for 2014.
All the best,
Tim
1/3/2014 @ 12:58PM EST
Today's pennant: AM gap up closes at 159.29. An upside measuredmove easily breaches 160. $DJIA $TM_F
