EMERGING MARKET INDEX Chart Fibonacci Analysis 030723 1) Find a FIBO Slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 39/61.80%
EEM trade ideas
Emerging Markets ETF is about to take offEEM is ready for a 6.5% gain with a stop at 38$ which means 1.25% risk on a trade.
MSCI EM and DXYDollar and EM markets.
A non Brainer with 1:1 correlation.
The DXY (black line) is inverted to show the coorelation with EM.
Strenthening Dollar means weaker EM and vice versa.
Soince with rate ris eback inti the limelight, the DXY should rally an dEM would be under pressure. The weakness of Chines Equity markets which makes up 31% of MSCI EM would also be a factor.
EEM: Emerging Market MSCI (EM) : SELLEmerging markets equities had to clear many hurdles in 2022 but began to recover in the fourth quarter.
But technically, there are hurdles, The Red sloping line of 2021 is the prime example.
After the steep drop in equity markets overall in 2022, It is believed that emerging markets equities may be one of the most mispriced asset classes, with attractive valuations compared with historical levels.
A 15% drop cannot be ruled out...fundamentals are strong, but technicals will sadly rule.
Nowhere to HideEmerging markets have made some terrific gains in the past month, but I would caution with the path ahead. Take a look at the past year's performance of the Hang Seng, KOSPI, IBOVESPA. I've included a chart of the Tadawul, the Saudi stock index, which is significantly weighted in EEM, the emerging market ETF. These are not healthy charts, and rallies provide opportunities for shorting in my opinion.
EEM's breakout from its downtrend will be tested as it compresses between the 50 & 150 EMA's. As of right now, it needs to close above $39.20 to invalidate a daily Head & Shoulders pattern.
Oh Yeah! Confirmation of Going HigherWe stayed above the 9SMA on the 4hr, We are going higher across all risk assets. Fill up the truck this could be a big move!
PS there will be no pull backs in this market cycle. Its straight to the moon!!!
Emerging Markets StrengthWhat will cause EM's to breakout? Last time it was QE.
Clear resistance and near term inflection point.
Change of trend in Asia MarketEEM - Emerging Markets ETF
FXI - China ETF
VNM - Vietnam ETF
EWS - Singapore ETF
EWY South Korea Etf
Asia is GREAT again !I believe the year 2021 and probably the next few years would be dominated by Asia markets, especially China and Hong Kong.
EEM ETF has just broken out of its long term weekly resistance at 52.04 and is poised to go higher in the coming months and years ahead.
Thus, I would be focusing more on Asia stocks , selective ETFs like this one to gain a wider exposure to markets like Korea, Indonesia , Vietnam,etc.
iShares MSCI Emerging Index Fund (Long)iShares MSCI Emerging Index Fund
Long
Entry at 41.30
Take Profit at 46.04 (11.48% profit from entry)
Stop loss at 40.56
EEM: retesting 0.61 and heading lowerEmerging markets is completing a complex correction from an Elliot wave point of view.
The first leg of the C wave started in May21 and is currently retracing before heading lower.
Dollar index broke out and is now retesting the top of its previous range going back till '15.
Secondly EEM and Dollar index are inverse correlated when the market is trending.
VIX lift-off will coincide with this second leg.
Long $EEMMaybe it's time to see emergent markets having a bull run again. Or it will be ruin?
Your call.
Emerging Markets - great place to go short Emerging markets headed up to a technical resistance and provides a good ratio to go short.
MSCI Emerging MarketAfter peaking in Feb 2021 and a slide of nearly 43%, seems like MSCI EM has found a base.
Emerging equities likely to outperform Developed equities?The idea is to buy EEM and then to short-sell IVVon a relative basis.
A price action above 0.0955 supports a bullish trend direction. Crossing below this level will negate the bullish stance.
Adjust Target level as the price action is developing further.
MACD bullish crossover applicable (see the lower panel)
EEM short at daily desending trendline EEM reached the middle term daily desending trendline. shorted with stop above TL.
Emerging Markets & Global Recession = OpportunityUS technical recession confirmed with Atlanta Fed GDPNow data indicating retraction in Q2, two consecutive negative GDP prints. While US stock markets have already experienced the worst first half of the year in more than half a century.
Typically in a bull market, this would signal the bottom of a retracement is already in or nearby. Unfortunately, this isn't a bull market and there's still significant downside risk from here. The Fed Reserve and Central Banks continue to have rampant inflation that challenges price stability while the second half of the mandate (low unemployment) remains strong.
Unemployment #'s will rise as tighter monetary policy takes shape in form of rate hikes and slowing securities to mature and roll off the balance sheets. Unemployment is unlikely to raise to a level of concern as there are 2 jobs available (nearly 12 million) per each unemployed person. The more likely scenario is underemployment as individuals find income in roles they are overwrites for.
In addition to unemployment, overnight reverse repo facilities are setting $2 Trillion flow back consistently, indicating a significant oversupply of money without quality investment potential.
Implications for emerging markets is clear, tighter monetary policy will drive these lower as global recession takes hold.
Looking at long-term parallel channel and major support levels, further downside from 18% to 24% is well within range and likely given the additional pullback expected.
How does this get played? Shorting EEM is an option, however there's more attractive potential in going long with inverse ETF's (leveraged or not) via entities like ProShares & Direxion. One example is the 3x $EDC bull / $EDZ bear ETF's benchmarking MSCI Emerging Markets.
Indicators: OBV On-balance volume, MA6/EMA18
Currently, taking a position with the inverse $EDZ play in the short-term is attractive. This will reverse and requires attention, it also involves risk that the broader economy has already bottomed or is close to the bottom... but the data implications don't appear to support that position at this time in my opinion.
Emerging Markets over S&P 500 (5/5)Emerging Market equities have underperformed the US for the last decade, and has now reached past lows during the dot-com bubble.
Looks poised for another reversion in the next 10 years!
EM is cheaper (has already fallen mainly due to weaknesses in Chinese equities)
DXY likely to weaken in the long-term, which should benefit EM equities.
Monthly RSI also seem to be putting in bullish divergence.
$EEM Some near term risk, great long-term R:R (5/5)recently bouncing off of potential trendline support.
RSI is also at very attractive levels.
HOWEVER, be aware that dark blue line support has historically been more enduring. Which would be the buy point should we enter recession in the very near future.
Nonetheless, a good place to start adding long-term positions. Also, relative performance to US and relative value to US is very promising for the long-term as well.
EEM emerging Mkt bottomed @39 or fall further to 37 or 36?EEM now near 41, has already fallen more than 30% from Feb2021 top at 57.19. Two weeks ago it fell to 39 the green VWAP from 2016 & bounced with a weekly hammer candle. It is now being rejected by a FIB CHANNEL level near the yellow 41-42 pivot zone. Holding this zone will see more upside maybe up to 44 or 46 before a c-wave down.
If 41/42 does not hold, there are only 2 strong supports down:
One is at 37, the black VWAP from 2011, which will be another 9% drop from current price.
The worst one is at 36 ( the red VWAP from 2009), another 14% drop from here, making the total crash of 38% from ATH.
The 37 to 36 zone will be a good place to slowly average down into EEM. Note that the dollar index DXY seems to be topping out near 105, which will be good for emerging markets, gold, silver, commodities & maybe BTC, which are all priced in terms of dollars.
Not trading advice
