EEM trade ideas
EMERGING MARKETS 7 year bottom is in. Huge upside potential.The MSCI Emerging Index Fund (EEM) is posting a bottom rebound pattern similar to early 2016 and 2009. All all cases the 1W RSI previously broke below the 30.00 oversold level and rebounded strongly. As you see these bottoms take place approximately every 7 years. This indicates that the Emerging Markets are only at the start of a two year mega rally.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Head and Shoulders on $EEMThe $EEM daily chart is showing a massive Head and Shoulders formation, with the Neckline set at $38. This could be a sign that the price will soon break to the downside, as Head and Shoulders are usually considered bearish reversal patterns. The market will now be watching for a break below $38 in order to confirm the bearish reversal. If the price does break below $38, traders may want to consider shorting the $EEM as the price could continue to decline.
MSCI EM and DXYDollar and EM markets.
A non Brainer with 1:1 correlation.
The DXY (black line) is inverted to show the coorelation with EM.
Strenthening Dollar means weaker EM and vice versa.
Soince with rate ris eback inti the limelight, the DXY should rally an dEM would be under pressure. The weakness of Chines Equity markets which makes up 31% of MSCI EM would also be a factor.
EEM: Emerging Market MSCI (EM) : SELLEmerging markets equities had to clear many hurdles in 2022 but began to recover in the fourth quarter.
But technically, there are hurdles, The Red sloping line of 2021 is the prime example.
After the steep drop in equity markets overall in 2022, It is believed that emerging markets equities may be one of the most mispriced asset classes, with attractive valuations compared with historical levels.
A 15% drop cannot be ruled out...fundamentals are strong, but technicals will sadly rule.
Nowhere to HideEmerging markets have made some terrific gains in the past month, but I would caution with the path ahead. Take a look at the past year's performance of the Hang Seng, KOSPI, IBOVESPA. I've included a chart of the Tadawul, the Saudi stock index, which is significantly weighted in EEM, the emerging market ETF. These are not healthy charts, and rallies provide opportunities for shorting in my opinion.
EEM's breakout from its downtrend will be tested as it compresses between the 50 & 150 EMA's. As of right now, it needs to close above $39.20 to invalidate a daily Head & Shoulders pattern.
Asia is GREAT again !I believe the year 2021 and probably the next few years would be dominated by Asia markets, especially China and Hong Kong.
EEM ETF has just broken out of its long term weekly resistance at 52.04 and is poised to go higher in the coming months and years ahead.
Thus, I would be focusing more on Asia stocks , selective ETFs like this one to gain a wider exposure to markets like Korea, Indonesia , Vietnam,etc.
EEM: retesting 0.61 and heading lowerEmerging markets is completing a complex correction from an Elliot wave point of view.
The first leg of the C wave started in May21 and is currently retracing before heading lower.
Dollar index broke out and is now retesting the top of its previous range going back till '15.
Secondly EEM and Dollar index are inverse correlated when the market is trending.
VIX lift-off will coincide with this second leg.
Emerging equities likely to outperform Developed equities?The idea is to buy EEM and then to short-sell IVVon a relative basis.
A price action above 0.0955 supports a bullish trend direction. Crossing below this level will negate the bullish stance.
Adjust Target level as the price action is developing further.
MACD bullish crossover applicable (see the lower panel)
Emerging Markets & Global Recession = OpportunityUS technical recession confirmed with Atlanta Fed GDPNow data indicating retraction in Q2, two consecutive negative GDP prints. While US stock markets have already experienced the worst first half of the year in more than half a century.
Typically in a bull market, this would signal the bottom of a retracement is already in or nearby. Unfortunately, this isn't a bull market and there's still significant downside risk from here. The Fed Reserve and Central Banks continue to have rampant inflation that challenges price stability while the second half of the mandate (low unemployment) remains strong.
Unemployment #'s will rise as tighter monetary policy takes shape in form of rate hikes and slowing securities to mature and roll off the balance sheets. Unemployment is unlikely to raise to a level of concern as there are 2 jobs available (nearly 12 million) per each unemployed person. The more likely scenario is underemployment as individuals find income in roles they are overwrites for.
In addition to unemployment, overnight reverse repo facilities are setting $2 Trillion flow back consistently, indicating a significant oversupply of money without quality investment potential.
Implications for emerging markets is clear, tighter monetary policy will drive these lower as global recession takes hold.
Looking at long-term parallel channel and major support levels, further downside from 18% to 24% is well within range and likely given the additional pullback expected.
How does this get played? Shorting EEM is an option, however there's more attractive potential in going long with inverse ETF's (leveraged or not) via entities like ProShares & Direxion. One example is the 3x $EDC bull / $EDZ bear ETF's benchmarking MSCI Emerging Markets.
Indicators: OBV On-balance volume, MA6/EMA18
Currently, taking a position with the inverse $EDZ play in the short-term is attractive. This will reverse and requires attention, it also involves risk that the broader economy has already bottomed or is close to the bottom... but the data implications don't appear to support that position at this time in my opinion.