$ELV Earnings Preview: Oversold Potential + Key Metrics AheadEarnings Estimates: Analysts forecast an EPS of $3.82 for the upcoming quarter, indicating a 32% year-over-year decline. Revenue is projected at $44.67 billion, a 5.2% increase from the same period last year.
Oversold Potential: With an oversold score of 59%, NYSE:ELV appears attractive for accumulation.
PEG Ratio: The PEG ratio stands at -0.77, suggesting undervaluation despite negative growth.
Valuation Metrics: A forward P/E of 11.03, lower than the trailing P/E of 14.14, indicates potential undervaluation.
Revenue Growth: Positive quarterly revenue growth estimates point to resilient performance.
In the previous quarter, Elevance reported an EPS of $8.37, missing the consensus estimate of $9.66, but achieved a 5.3% year-over-year revenue increase to $44.72 billion.
Guidance: In the previous quarter, Elevance Health revised its full-year 2024 adjusted EPS guidance downward to approximately $33, down from the prior estimate of $37.20, due to challenges in its Medicaid business.
Despite these hurdles, Elevance's diversified portfolio and strategic initiatives position it for potential growth.
ELV trade ideas
Elevance - Short interest declining, buy the dip?The shorts have done extremely well here, dragging the price down by over 34%. ELV has been under severe pressure due to a miss on EPS on their last earnings report. However, they did beat on revenue (by $1.58B) but that did not stop holders exiting their positions.
Unless you're living under a shell, you will know that the entire sector has been under increased public scrutiny following the death of the United Health Group's CEO. President Trump has also had some harsh words for the sector and has appointed RFK in a key position, he is not perceived as a friend of in the industry. The whole industry will likely face further scrutiny over the coming quarters, I don't expect things to change soon.
Whilst there is blood on the streets (quite literally), I do feel that this presents an excellent opportunity for a patient, long term investor, who is happy to buy on the major dips and hold for the longer term. I don't see the stock falling more than 20% of the current price. Short interest has also been declining, so we should see the downside pressure starting to ease.
Looking at the TA, it is not unusual for this stock to drop 30-40% from it's peak before continuing to move up. The 0.382 Fibonacci speed fan has hisotrically held as support on the major dips. We are now dipping below this level but we also have strong support below at a Monthly level along with the Golden Fibonacci support zone.
ELV has historically outperformed the S&P500, so in my opinion this is a good time to think about getting involved in the sector if you have no exposure to Healthcare sector. Or you can wait for the Buy Zone to be hit around $300-330.
Not financial advise, do what's best for you.
ELV buying opportunityNYSE:ELV buying opportunity, in my opinion.
Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV), formerly known as Anthem, Inc., is a health benefits company that provides medical, pharmaceutical, dental, behavioral health, and other insurance-related services to its members. It operates through affiliated health plans, primarily under the Blue Cross and Blue Shield brand, in the United States.
Key Information:
Ticker: ELV
Sector: Healthcare (Health Insurance)
Market Cap: ~$100 billion
Business Focus: Elevance Health provides a range of health insurance products and services, including individual, group, and government-sponsored health plans. The company serves millions of members across the U.S. and is focused on improving healthcare outcomes while reducing costs.
Recent Developments:
Elevance Health is one of the largest health insurance providers in the U.S., playing a key role in the managed care industry. The company has been focusing on digital health and data-driven solutions to enhance patient care and outcomes. Given the increasing focus on healthcare technology, they continue to invest in improving access to healthcare services while managing costs.
This stock is considered a relatively stable investment in the healthcare sector, benefiting from the growing need for healthcare services and insurance coverage.
ELV - capitalizing on misses from UNH and HUMNYSE:ELV had a great earnings, beating on top and bottom line estimates and following through with a 10% dividend increase. This comes as NYSE:UNH and NYSE:HUM each disappoint and lower guidance.
ELV has put in a strong consolidation after retracing from 2022 highs. Using a fib fan from the 2022 all time high to the April 2023 high, and another from the September 2020 low to the September 2022 low give us an idea of the support and resistance areas that we can expect.
At the beginning of 2023 we can see a breakdown of the sentiment cycle that leads into a year long consolidation. Taking a fib retrace from this timeframe to the July 2023 low identifies ~573 as a 1.618 target, which is very close to consensus 12 month price targets and aligns to the top of the next fib fan. However, be aware that we could expect resistance anywhere in the blue area overhead when price begins to match prior highs.
ELV - 12.41% Potential Profit - Swing Trading SetupGood risk / reward ratio on this trade.
Ascending Triangle.
- Target Entry: $485.50
- Stop Loss: $474.67
- Target Exit Conservative: $520.50
- Target Exit Aggressive: $545.52
- Risk / Reward Ratio: 3.23 / 5.54
About me
- Note that I tend to adjust stop losses in order to secure profits early and preserve capital. This means that the target price is going to be achieved as long as there are no strong pullbacks that trigger my new adjusted stop loss
- When I see that the market is opening too high/low, I wait for 30 min from the opening bell before placing my order. This is to avoid the initial spikes/drops that get me into a position and out right after.
ELV | Informative NYSE:ELV
If the stock price manages to surpass the bullish line, which is positioned around $469.79, the main target on the bullish side to monitor would be Target Price 1 at $480.96.
On the other hand, if the stock price breaks below the bearish line, set at $458.39, there are several potential downside targets. The first target on the bearish side would be Target Price 1 at $450.10. Should this level be breached, the subsequent target to keep an eye on would be Target Price 2 at $440.76.
ELV Elevance Health Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ELV Elevance Health prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 450usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-10-20,
for a premium of approximately $4.95.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
ELV approaching significant overhead resistanceElevance Health Inc. (ELV) approaching significant overhead resistance, able to absorb monthly buying pressures.
From here, (ELV) can reject and fall lower to channel support, eliciting losses of 15% - 20% over the following 2 - 3 months.
Inversely, a weekly settlement above resistance would place (ELV) into a buy-signal where gains of 15% - 20% would be expected over the following 2 - 5 months.
ELV (formerly Anthem Healthcare) weekly, hybrid swing/longELV (formerly Anthem Healthcare)
Bottom to bottom cycles running around 15 bars, or 105 days. Up cycle running approximately 5 bars or 33 days for 77 to 79 points.
Strategy:
ELV is under declining 52 week EMA, and under the Ichy cloud. Nevertheless, excellent fundamentals make this a good swing candidate convertible to a potential long hold.
I would hope for a .618 fib pullback (a la Gartley) around mid to late October to around 404.94. In addition to being a key fib area, there is a pivot support and low volume node profile. I would
count on a swing of approximately 35 days (or 5 weekly bars) and set a target of 77 points. 404.94 + 77 = 481.94, or 19%. At the target you are entering a resistance area which will be the cloud and the 52 week EMA, so you can tighten stops, scale out, sell out, or sell partial and hold long partial. I don't see much if any downside at the .618 level, so an entry around there would be ideal.
free cash flow yield 10.2 % (bargain)
54.2% upside (Finbox Models)
Piotroski Score 8 (excellent)
consistent earnings beats
PEG ratio 0.96 (excellent)
ROE 17.43 % (fair)
A tight stop for Elevance Health Required Elevance Health NYSE:ELV - Long term positioning
Positive earnings are causing a pump in price but be careful here though. Earnings positive since April 2020, why the pump? If i was entering a long term position here i would be waiting for the bottom of the parallel channel and RSI resistance line or at least harboring some cash on the side and splitting my position.
Chart Requirements
- A retest of RSI resistance line preferred
- Ideal levels outlined on chart
- If entering here, please place a tight stop loss as there is a more ideal entry lower