LongI like fedex here, these are my thoughts:
There is a huge support line that goes from 2014-12-08 to today, so this is very strong. From the beginning to 2016-11-14, that was a nice resistance line but since the breakout of that resistance line, it became a support. The stock broke out that resistance line with strength, then came back at the support line and made a nice bounce. One week later, the stock came back again and it bounced again for a nice uptrend. So today, the stock came at the support line for the third time, bounced and finished the day with a nice hammer, a candle that is very bullish. So the fact that there is a nice support line and that the candle is very bullish, i am expecting a move on the upside. This stock did the same thing as the market: It gap down a lot, continue to move down, bounced at the support line and finished the day very close to the high so that shows that bulls finished the day with the power and control.
FDX trade ideas
short fdx!was waiting to do something with FDX, but wanted ER to blow over first.
looks like a good short candidate. 2 possible bearish order blocks. first one got touched march 1 and fdx closed below. also touched fib level. 2nd possible order block entered marc 17 20 and 22 (today). also bearish divergence bar forming on daily. see if it closes today and completes the candle.
sold call spreads 195/197.5
target 180s? gives us AB=CD and a 1.27 extension from fractal break at 184
FedEx 2014-2015 Fractal*Fractal of 9 months extrapolation taken from 2014-2015 with no modification
*Current levels tracking march 2015 right before earnings even at that time
*The levels of capex have been sliding in the last 2 yrs while the debt/equity has grown
partly to sustain the huge buyback program started in back in 2016, which defended four times the price action with the marked trendline, now reasonable first target, if the fractal continues.
*Stop at all time highs, ideal target at 180 handle
THE WEEK AHEAD: FDX, NKE EARNINGSWith fourth quarter earnings announcements trailing off majorly here, there isn't much in the way of earnings to play, with the earnings of note for premium sellers being FDX, which announces on 3/21 after market close, and NKE (same).
FDX is toward the top of its implied volatility range over the past six months (85), with NKE in the 63rd percentile over that same time period. However, background implied volatility in FDX isn't that great (29); neither is NKE (25), so the question remains whether a volatility contraction play in either of those will be particularly productive from a dollar and cents standpoint.
Preliminarily, the FDX March 31st 177.5/182.5/207.5/212.5 iron condor plays 1.23 at the mid, somewhat short of the one-third the width of the wings I look for in these plays.
With NKE, I would probably either go short strangle or narrow short strangle/iron fly, with the defined risk March 31st 54.5/57.5/58.5/61.5 bringing in 1.69 at the mid, which is also a bit shy of the one-quarter the width of the longs (7 wide) I like to see in an iron fly.
Elsewhere, VIX continues to trundle on far below its long term one year (13.9) and three-year moving averages (15.4), extending a sub-15 drought that's been in place since mid-November of 2016, and no liquid exchange-traded fund has the metrics I want to see for a play (>70% implied volatility rank (6 month); >35% implied volatility).
I've also been looking at bullish directional plays in either XOP, GDX or both, with my preference being for diagonals to allow me to work the short put over a period of a time rather than doing them as "one off", single expiry credit spreads. Examples: XOP April 21st 35 short put/June 16th 31 long put diagonal; GDX April 21st 21.5 short put/June 16th 19 long put diagonal. Both of these would be put on for a small credit, and I'll post these ideas separately.