4/21/25 - $four - Actually a buy mid 70s but...4/21/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:FOUR
Actually a buy mid 70s but...
- great mgns and growth, rule of 40 check
- 5% fcf mgns even on a lower fcf gen year
- such high growth expectations in this environment still gives me pause, but all else equal stock still a winner on it's QQQ pair
- the TL;DR after running thru payments names (which are *slightly* more tariff exposed... nothing's really a hiding spot) is this:
top tier, probs buys here (but still don't own)
- PAYC
- FOUR
- CPAY
honorable mentions, would buy but still need headier discount
- AGYS
- CTLP (studying actively so lmk if anyone has opinion here, i like their vending format which is a "future" play)
- RELY
- HOOD
- OLO
not sure if they r honorable mentions or lower tier, because they're so big and tariff/ or mgns aren't "there"
- XYZ (had to take a big L here, but have moved on and set targets lower)
- PYPL (fcf huge, but just a sucky biz until there's some catalyst... what is it? stable coins? lending?)
not interested at the moment names
- TOST
- PAYX
- IMXI
- SOFI
- BCO
have a good week my friends. touch some grass. i'm trying to "vacation" this week so perhaps, hopefully i comment less :)
V
FOUR trade ideas
2/18/25 - $four - Probs a buy, but dip buy only for me2/18/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:FOUR
Probs a buy, but dip buy only for me
- not expensive for growth
- chart great
- in any other tape where i'm not stacking cash i'd be punting long on this
- it's possible i do take a small position into the close
- but think i'll play it "risk free" and see the pitch go by. if stonk up, i let it run, if down, i dip buy. perhaps there's something to do here also in terms of selling P's. will eye it closer to the close.
- but would look to get involved at some pt this year, stock looks like a winner
V
$FOUR x your portfolio with this buyKey Stats:
Market Cap: $9.3 billion
P/E Ratio: 54.9
Revenue (2023): $2.56 billion, a 28.65% increase from 2022
Earnings (2023): $86.2 million, a 14.78% increase from 2022
Next Earnings Date: March 4, 2025
Technical Reasons for Bullish Outlook:
Bullish Breakout: The stock has recently broken above a key resistance level indicating strong upward momentum.
Strong Uptrend: The 50-day moving average is trending above the 200-day moving average, signalling sustained bullish momentum.
Positive RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 70, suggesting strong buying pressure.
Fundamental Reasons for Bullish Outlook:
Undervalued Stock: Shift4 Payments is valued conservatively compared to industry peers, indicating potential for price appreciation.
Robust Revenue Growth: The company reported a 28.65% increase in revenue for 2023, reflecting strong business performance and market demand.
Analyst Upgrades: Recent analyst reports have revised price targets upward, reflecting increased confidence in the company's future performance.
Potential Paths to Profit:
Option 1 - Buy Shares
Option 2 - Buy LEAPs. Sell the options when the stock approaches the price target.
Disclaimer: We are not a brokerage or investment firm. We do not offer financial advice or investment advice and/or signals. This is not certified financial education. We offer access to the daily thought process of an individual and his experiences. We do not offer refunds. All sales are final.
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FOUR - Oct 24 Opening Sustainable Momentum (Trade 2)First FOUR trade the day before hit our SL. Conditions still stand and we have another momentum signal.
10 Oct
RUT D1 is currently in a range setup.
The CPI report showed that US inflation is cooling more slowly than expected, missing forecasts. This caused both the RUT and SPX to gap down at the open.
While the SPX held above the support level it had broken the day before, the RUTโs bear gap was significant enough to test the 2172.90 support level. However, price quickly reversed, and the RUT closed with a bullish hammer pattern.
The alignment of RUT's H1 bullish hammer pattern and SPX holding above the support line was a signal for a price pivot on the RUT for price to ride the range upwards.
Trade 1 - FOUR has a momentum signal and was respecting a previous support. I placed an entry position on the high of the H2 candle and got filled.
11 Oct
Trade 1 - Hits SL and reverses.
RUT and SPX both started rallying together and most of the market became green. RUT confirmed the bullish hammer by breaking a previous high. SPX's rally further confirmed a successful bullish breakout.
Trade 2 - FOUR had a momentum signal and was respecting a previous support. I placed an entry position on the high of the H2 candle and got filled.
Opening Sustainable Momentum ๐ง๐ปโ๐
Strategy
Signals identify market opening H2 candles through momentum and behaviour change that potentially could indicate a shift in the current price overall structure (Price gaps and ADR %).
Risk
We use the signal candle's highs and lows for entry and stop loss. If price hits the stop loss, it is clear that the shift we expected did not come to fruitation.
Current SL is at 0.25Fib
Stock Pool
Shortlisted Mid to Small cap Tech stocks that have clear D1 and H2 price movement (Not choppy). Historically has shown price movements aligned to high impact moves in on the RUT index.
Focus
Focus is never on the signal candle alone, but it's role in the larger structure and the direction it is inclined towards with a minimum Risk & Reward of 2R.
Stock must be in a pull back or consolidation area waiting for a broad market momentum to ignite it forward.
Character
Trend, Positive Skew
FOUR - Oct 24 Opening Sustainable MomentumTechnicals
RUT D1 is currently in a range setup.
The CPI report showed that US inflation is cooling more slowly than expected, missing forecasts. This caused both the RUT and SPX to gap down at the open.
While the SPX held above the support level it had broken the day before, the RUTโs bear gap was significant enough to test the 2172.90 support level. However, price quickly reversed, and the RUT closed with a bullish hammer pattern.
The alignment of RUT's H1 bullish hammer pattern and SPX holding above the support line was a signal for a price pivot on the RUT for price to ride the range upwards.
FOUR has a momentum signal and was respecting a previous support. I placed an entry position on the high of the H2 candle and got filled.
Opening Sustainable Momentum ๐ง๐ปโ๐
Strategy
Signals identify market opening H2 candles through momentum and behaviour change that potentially could indicate a shift in the current price overall structure (Price gaps and ADR %).
Risk
We use the signal candle's highs and lows for entry and stop loss. If price hits the stop loss, it is clear that the shift we expected did not come to fruitation.
Current SL is at 0.25Fib
Stock Pool
Shortlisted Mid to Small cap Tech stocks that have clear D1 and H2 price movement (Not choppy). Historically has shown price movements aligned to high impact moves in on the RUT index.
Focus
Focus is never on the signal candle alone, but it's role in the larger structure and the direction it is inclined towards with a minimum Risk & Reward of 2R.
Stock must be in a pull back or consolidation area waiting for a broad market momentum to ignite it forward.
Character
Trend, Positive Skew
Shift4 Payments (FOUR) Analysis Company Overview: Shift4 Payments NYSE:FOUR continues to demonstrate impressive growth, specializing in payment solutions tailored for industries such as hospitality, entertainment, and sports venues. With a unique focus on vertical integration, Shift4 is capturing more market share through high-profile partnerships and technological innovation.
Key Catalysts:
Strong Payment Processing Growth: In Q2 2024, Shift4 processed a remarkable $40.1 billion in payments, up from $26.8 billion in Q2 2023. This marks a 75% CAGR since 2020, highlighting sustained growth in its core business.
High-Profile Partnerships: Recent partnerships with Nobu Hotel and the Chicago Bears stadium reflect its expanding reach and capability to serve large-scale clients in major industries.
Insider Confidence: CEO Jared Isaacmanโs purchase of 86,000 shares underscores strong insider confidence in the companyโs long-term growth prospects.
Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on Shift4 Payments above $75.00-$76.00, given its accelerating growth in payment processing and strategic partnerships. Upside Potential: Our upside target is $118.00-$120.00, based on continued market share gains and operational momentum.
๐ FOURโRevolutionizing Payments with Strong Growth. #Payments #Shift4 #Fintech
FOUR - Sep 24 Opening Sustainable MomentumTechnicals
- RUT H1, Green momentum candle, breaking out and confirming the end of a potential bear trend structure. D1 RUT Price structure now looking like a range with price moving up.
- FOUR had a H2 momentum that cleared most of the range it was in and barely broke the resistance line. I placed an entry position on the high of the H2 candle and got filled.
Near Term Fundamental Catalysts
- Q2 Earnings released on the 8 Aug shows strong growth in EPS ($0.96, 77.7% increase vs Q1) and Sales ($827M, 16.91% vs Q1). For the past seven quarters, sales has had incremental growth with Q2 2024 having the most significant move.
- FOUR's current contracted estimated backlog is roughly $25B in volume. This contracts are pending implementation or itโs expected run rate.
- 12 Sep, Jared Isaacman the CEO was one of the individuals the made history by participating in the private spacewalk by SpaceX. This should increase the awareness of the company.
Opening Sustainable Momentum ๐ง๐ปโ๐
Strategy
Signals identify market opening H2 candles through momentum and behaviour change that potentially could indicate a shift in the current price overall structure (Price gaps and ADR %).
Risk
We use the signal candle's highs and lows for entry and stop loss. If price hits the stop loss, it is clear that the shift we expected did not come to fruitation.
Current SL is at 0.25Fib
Stock Pool
Shortlisted Mid to Small cap Tech stocks that have clear D1 and H2 price movement (Not choppy). Historically has shown price movements aligned to high impact moves in on the RUT index.
Focus
Focus is never on the signal candle alone, but it's role in the larger structure and the direction it is inclined towards with a minimum Risk & Reward of 2R.
Stock must be in a pull back or consolidation area waiting for a broad market momentum to ignite it forward.
Character
Trend, Positive Skew
FOUR time's the charmA payment processsimg company with wonderful forecasts has just broken out of a small technical cup and handle formation, in the middle of a wider ascending channel. This is good news for us technical focused traders.
FOUR has a history of getting into short time momentum bursts while climbing the channel. As seen before, these runs are pre-dated by some form of a recognisable chart pattern.
Despite Friday's afternoon selloff FOUR held up well and I believe now is an excellent time to enter the stock for a push up to 85-95 area.
๐๐ณ Shift4 Payments (FOUR) Analysis๐ Technical Overview:
NYSE:FOUR Business: Provider of software and payment processing solutions in the United States.
Strategic Opportunities: Actively exploring opportunities to benefit employees and shareholders.
Partnership with Amazon: Checkout-free shopping at stadiums, starting with the United Center.
Acquisition Target: Becoming a major acquisition target for larger payments companies.
๐๐ผ Financial Highlights:
Top-Line Growth: Partnership with Amazon expected to boost top-line growth in Q1 2024.
Competitive Advantages: Recognized for its technology and competitive advantages.
๐๐ Trade Sentiment:
Sentiment: Bullish on Shift4 Payments (FOUR).
Entry Range: Above $66.00-$67.00.
Upside Target: Set in the $105.00-$110.00 range.
๐๐ก Note: Monitor developments in strategic initiatives and partnerships for potential market impact. ๐๐ก #Shift4Payments #FOUR #FinancialAnalysis ๐ป๐ฐ
FOUR daily -possible long after the breakoutTHE CONSISTENT TRADES analyze FOUR as a bullish /strong fundamental stock and therefore would be traded only in a long position.
FOUR after a strong move up it found resistance at 66 even dollar amount. Now it is consolidating around 64 dollars. A break out of tringle would be a bullish and fast move.
Volume is strong and Friday's move indicates the price wants to move higher.
Price is above all major MA which is bullish.
RSI did cool down after overbought territory and could be ready for a further move up.
MACD also cools down and it needs to stay above the zero line.
Overall: FOUR could have a strong breakout of this consolidating level after the breakout of the blue dotted trend line. If consolidation continued it needs to stay on lower volume for indication of a sooner healthy move up.