HTZ 10/24/2022HTZ
Bout to catch a hurtin’
Daily chart analysis
These jokesters went from filing for bankruptcy to owning a fleet of Teslas cars and having commercials with Tom Brady.
Those covid bucks did everyone pretty good huh?!
But if you look around, every company little by little has been taking back all those “Covid gains” and the “investor” has been the one paying the price.
HTZ went public Oct.’20 and went sideways until Apr.’21
Price broke out of sideways range May’21. The sideways range was then deemed an Accumulation stage.
From there, it went into Uptrend that took price from 2.00 to topping out at around 46.00
The uptrend came to an end Nov.’21.
Since end of Uptrend, price has entered a sideways range seeing price make a series of Lower Highs into Support area at 16.35. We now have a Descending Triangle pattern.
These Lower highs display the strength of the seller pressure preventing price from making a higher high. Support area of 16.35 is getting weaker with every touch and with the seller pressure getting stronger, price should break thru support shortly.
You don’t find too many stocks that haven’t entered a downtrend or given up some of the “covid gains” by now.
In terms of trend trading, HTZ looks like a tree that has come to full fruition, but it has yet to be harvested.
I typically would not enter a trade this close to support level but closer to the resistance trendline created by lower high.
However, the support area at around 16.35 has been weaken and the seller pressure is getting stronger and Support should be broken soon. For this reason, I will be entering trade short now.
Entering trade short
Entry: 17.58
Stop loss: 23.00 (-30.83%)
Target: 7.50, +57.34%, 1.86 RR ratio
HTZ1 trade ideas
Is Hertz's Future in Jeopardy?Hertz Global Holdings NASDAQ:HTZ , a major player in the global car rental industry and my go to option when renting a car, is navigating a complex landscape marked by increasing competition, technological disruption, and corporate reorganization.
Hertz Global Holdings, renowned for its Hertz brand, offers short-term vehicle rental services to individuals and businesses. The company also operates under other brands such as Dollar Rent-A-Car, Firefly Car Rental, and Thrifty Car Rental. Despite its strong market presence, Hertz is facing significant challenges that threaten its traditional business model.
Intensifying Competition
The modern consumer's demand for speed and convenience is reshaping the car rental market. Ride-sharing services like Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) have become preferred alternatives to traditional car rentals, especially for travelers looking to avoid long wait times and high costs. This shift is evident as Hertz grapples with its third consecutive year of slower annual earnings-per-share (EPS) growth, while ride-sharing companies report higher earnings growth.
The Looming Threat of Robotaxis
The advent of autonomous vehicles presents a long-term challenge for Hertz. Companies like Alphabet's Waymo and Tesla (TSLA) are heavily investing in robotaxi technology, which promises to revolutionize urban transportation. Tesla CEO Elon Musk emphasized the significance of autonomy and robotaxis in the company’s strategy, indicating that Tesla is committed to achieving full autonomy. With robotaxis already operational in several U.S. cities and Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology expected to launch in China soon, the potential for widespread adoption could significantly impact traditional car rental services.
Financial Performance and Market Position
Hertz's financial performance has been lackluster. Over the past year, its stock has plummeted 70.9%, starkly contrasting with the S&P 500's 25.5% gain. This dramatic underperformance is concerning, as historical data shows that most stocks tend to follow the market's direction. The bearish sentiment is further reflected in the options market, where traders have placed substantial bets against Hertz.
Strategic Changes
In response to its financial struggles, Hertz is undergoing significant leadership changes. The company announced the appointment of Scott Haralson as chief financial officer, effective at the end of this month. Haralson, formerly the CFO of Spirit Airlines (SAVE), will succeed Alexandra Brooks. Additionally, Chief Operating Officer Justin Keppy has agreed to resign. Hertz is also adjusting its fleet strategy. The company plans to remove 30,000 electric vehicles from its fleet due to high maintenance and operating costs, a substantial increase from the number previously announced. CEO Gil West stated, “We’re tackling both issues – getting to the right supply of vehicles at an acceptable capital cost while at the same time driving productivity up and operating costs down.”
Future Outlook
For fiscal year 2023, Hertz reported revenue growth of 7.9%, influenced by various factors including macroeconomic conditions and market demand. Higher interest rates, efforts to control inflation, and labor market dynamics will play critical roles in the company's performance in the coming year. The Fed's benchmark rate currently stands at 5.33%, with PPI at 0.5%, and the unemployment rate at 3.9%.
Why Invest on Hertz?
Established Brand and Market Presence
Hertz is one of the most well-known car rental brands globally, with a strong presence in multiple markets. This established brand recognition can provide a competitive edge and customer loyalty that newer entrants might struggle to achieve.
Adaptation and Innovation
Hertz has shown a willingness to adapt and innovate in response to market changes. The company is integrating technology to improve customer experience and operational efficiency. For instance, Hertz's focus on increasing productivity and reducing operating costs.
Leadership Changes
The recent appointment of Scott Haralson as CFO, who previously served as CFO of Spirit Airlines, brings in fresh leadership with experience in managing financial turnarounds. Effective leadership can significantly influence the company's strategic direction and financial health.
Market Opportunities
While ride-sharing and autonomous vehicles present some competition, they also highlight the evolving transportation market, where Hertz can find new opportunities. Also, the cost of renting a car is still lower for the target market than using ride-share services.
Financial Restructuring
Hertz's efforts to balance its vehicle fleet and manage capital costs indicate a strategic approach to financial restructuring. Reducing the number of electric vehicles in the fleet to cut maintenance and operating costs is a step towards more sustainable financial management.
Potential for Growth
Despite recent financial setbacks, Hertz's revenue growth of 7.9% in fiscal year 2023 shows resilience. As the macroeconomic environment stabilizes, Hertz could benefit from a recovery in travel and tourism, leading to increased demand for rental services.
Undervalued Stock
With the stock under performing, significant short interest and a bullish chart pattern there is potential for a rebound.
Diversified Brand Portfolio
Operating multiple brands under the Hertz umbrella, such as Dollar Rent-A-Car, Firefly Car Rental, and Thrifty Car Rental, allows the company to cater to different market segments. This diversification can help mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations and competitive pressures.
Long-Term Time frame
While short-term challenges are significant, Hertz's long-term potential remains strong. If the company successfully navigates the current disruptions and continues to innovate, it could emerge stronger and more competitive in the evolving transportation landscape.
Conclusion
Investors should closely monitor how does Hertz's responses to these challenges. While Hertz has faced significant under-performance compared to its peers, it remains a key player in the Industrial sector. Investing in Hertz involves recognizing both the risks and opportunities. The company’s efforts to adapt, its strong brand presence, and strategic initiatives aimed at financial recovery present a compelling case for potential long-term gains.
Investors with a risk-tolerant level and confidence in Hertz’s ability to execute its turnaround strategy may find it an attractive investment opportunity.
HTZ- BEARISH SCENARIOHertz Global Holdings, Inc. (HTZ) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues for the quarter ending June 2023. Analysts predict quarterly earnings of $0.66 per share, representing a decrease of 45.9% from the previous year. Revenues are expected to be $2.46 billion, up 4.8% from the same period last year.
Analysts have revised the EPS estimate slightly higher in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment of initial estimates by covering analysts.
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HTZ | Start the Engines | BounceHertz Global Holdings, Inc. operates as a vehicle rental company. It operates through two segments, Americas Rental Car and International Rental Car. The company provides vehicle rental services under the Hertz, Dollar, and Thrifty brands from company-owned, licensee, and franchisee locations in the United States, Africa, Asia, Australia, Canada, the Caribbean, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and New Zealand. It also sells vehicles; and operates the Firefly vehicle rental brand and Hertz 24/7 car sharing business in international markets. Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Estero, Florida.
$HTZ earnings 10/27 bmo. Unusual 11/18 22.50 call volume.It will be interesting to see what happens to CAR and HTZ over the next month. Stock price went up with the post-Covid travel boom and used car price increases, but that bubble has burst.
Technically, price has been rangebound for the year, between the yellow dashed lines. Gray ovals mark gaps in price. Moving averages lean bearish by their order, yet there is no directional trend yet. Lower indicators hint at a possible down turn. RSI(14) recently dipped below 30 so I will look for it to stay under 65 and turn down; this would fit with the 200ma holding as resistance to price. Stochastic is already high and, based on history, should turn down; the caution, however, is that price could stay between the yellow lines instead of making a significant move.
This Barchart article highlights over 5k volume yesterday in the 11/18 22.50 call, and it also offers reasons for stock price to decline.
www.barchart.com
Maybe there is a catalyst that will boost the stock price after earnings. Maybe this volume was call selling because the strike is over the dashed line; it would be a good pick for collecting premium if stock drops after earnings. Short float is under 8%. Volume is light, so while I am watching this for a good study, I will only place a trade if I find a contract that is worth my capital.
HTZ Long Idea WC 27th JuneHertz has been moving sideways really since February. Holding up well in overall bearish conditions. Now showing bullish divergence indicating that momentum could be about to turn. There is horizontal support around the $15 mark, making this a lovely risk to reward play. There is resistance around the $20 and $24 mark but this has plenty of range for a longer term play. Keep it on your watchlist for the break above $20.
Last ChanceDifferent position now than a year or two ago
Inflation driving their portfolio up. More people are driving and need cars, automakers are slowing on car making with oil, driving up the price of normal cars for now until the switch to EV's is more underway
Also commitment to higher market and TaaS (transportation as as ervice) and are partnering with TSLA by committing to buy a lot of TSLA's
HTZ converging to melt up before earningsSupports and resistances are converging
Blow out holiday rental season due to bad weather should ensure the right supply / demand characteristics to help boost this company at a much needed time.
Hopefully the extra cash helps them in their purchasing of the TSLA fleet
TSLA is already committing to order fulfillment at this time rather than introducing new models.
Hertz Global Holdings dropping.We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe!
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Hertz Stock Potential IdeasIf price breaks the weekly resistance zone in blue, price could continue up to the $10 level, before giving a retracement. Long term getting to the $11-$13 range before toping out at the $20 range.
If price breaks below the $6.80-$6.50 level and breaks the up trend line, we could see a deeper retracement, before moving back up to top out at the $10 level.
If price breaks below the A boundary, we could see price move lower.
* this is not taking in to account any bankruptcy news. This news will expedite any of these scenarios.*
* If the bankruptcy news is positive we could see that break of the weekly resistance zone.*
* If the bankruptcy news is negative, then we will see a break to the downside and the A boundary will be broken.*
HTZGQ - Hertz is looking good!There is lots to love about this company, I am very bullish because I believe in it. I travel a lot and their presence around the world cannot be ignored. Also whenever I book hotels or flights, I'm always prompted to book with Hertz. This one will emerge stronger and better than ever. It's just my opinion, cheers!