IBM trade ideas
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: IBM ON LONG TERM RISKIBM is on risk of 5-year downtrend after falling out from 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean.
Additionally, price has fallen out of 1st standard deviation from 1-year mean, this is on short term downward risk as well.
Thus unless price trades back above short term risk order @ 150.5 - and then back above larger downtrend risk border @ 157.5 - risk of continued downtrend on IMB persists.
Put Ratio Backspread, Shorting the gap Well as this stock did gap down with good volume supporting the move. I decided to enter short through a Put ratio backspread. Reason being that this options' strategy simply limits my risk in regards to the large gap between 172.50 / 162.50. All in all, I'm looking for further downside to retest the 150.00 / 152.00 area.
For those wondering what a ratio backspread spread is I'll give you a link with a definition of it. Feel free to also just google put ratio backspread if you want to find a better explanation of it.
www.theoptionsguide.com
The position:
Bought +2 100 AUG 15 157.5 Puts
Sold/Wrote -1 100 AUG 15 162.5 Puts
The trade:
Exiting at a loss if we get a daily close above the 200 Moving Average.
Exiting at a profit if we reach the 150 / 152 area.
Cheers, happy trading! =)
Shorting IBM on weak fundamentals and appropriate wave structureYesterday the company published a mixed earnings report. It reported:
* earnings per share of $3.84 versus expected $3.78; that's a beat.
* revenue of $20.8 billion versus $20.95 billion, that's a miss, and the 13th consecutive quarterly decline.
The stock lost nearly 5% in the after hours. We are expecting more downside, as the wave count suggests the continuation of a longer-term downtrend. Stop-loss is a daily close above 170.
IBM Ready For A BreakoutIBM had a disastrous quarter in Q3 2014, where growth dramatically slowed. The market has punished IBM by selling it off hard. Following its drop from $190 to $160 IBM went into a long period of accumulation. The chart reminds me a classic Wyckoff pattern. As Richard Wyckoff explained in his seminal book on tap reading, large Wallstreet operators are not afraid to buy a fallen stock, provided the stock is large, liquid and has good earnings. In fact, they welcome an opportunity to accumulate shares at discount prices confident in their ability to mark up the stock once they have built a full position. While Wyckoff's work cover the classic period of 1920-30, I think its core is as relevant today as it once was.
IBM fits the profile perfectly. It is an institutional stock that mutual fund managers are extremely comfortable with. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that large operators are accumulating the stock. The chart, in general, seems to confirm. You can see a typical pattern of the stock being stuck in a ~ 8% range with a very strong support in $152 area. The support has been tested 3 times so far and held up. Finally, on April 23 IBM broke out of the range on increased volume. This is a sign that accumulation is over and the large operators are ready to mark up the stock.
optionsforum.net
Warren Buffett IBM train taking offIBM is the third highest valued holding of Berkshire Hathaway. Mega accumulation in strong hands. From what seen in his other holdings, he treats his stock well.
Careful of investing on blind speculation, and have some of your own TA to back it up. But from what I see, the last dip was swallowed, so that price range would be an ideal area to enter at low risk if we get a retrace.
Enjoy
IBM: Hoping For Long Out Of Very Strong ResistanceExpecting a nice move out of IBM soon. The resistance is very strong, and once broken we could see a strong move as a decision has finally been made.
We had a nice bullish kicker yesterday trading day. Whilst the days trading before that supported on the 50EMA. Creating a morning star/kicker signal at this level.
Waiting to see strong buying before I enter this trade.
IBM Gap up on monday? I have recently being reading a lot of about institutional buying and selling. And this looks like a perfect accumulation phase from the institutions
IBM Gap up on Monday?Based on recent material I have read about institutional buying and selling this looks like a perfect accumulation phase. Notes are on the chart :)
Countdown to the Q12015 earnings report.Expecting a result of the earnings report to force this stock to move outside of this range, with the H&S pattern confirming that a Long trade may present itself with a potential good R:R
Last week's Elite Zone winner struggles with resistance$IBM was one of our winners, in the Elite Zone last week with an impressive breakout of a descending trading channel we've been monitoring. Now, when it is at the top of my buying zone, the question is, can $IBM make it above 165$ to continue to my secondary target level - The 200 SMA line?
It all started with a bullish AB=CD pattern on the weekly 61.8 Fib level.. so the potential is there. Will we see another retracement lower, before the next rally?
Bullish longer term, cautious short term
IBM $164.52: Confirms a higher base on rallying through FebruaryIBM rebounded off the 153.40 low (March 13, 2015) through February’s 162.49 high to confirm a higher base over the former and trigger further strength towards 165.59 (October 31, 2014 range high) ahead of last October’s 170.33 gap low (October 20, 2014 high) near the 200 day moving average currently at 169.53. 160.35/158.81 (March 20/19, 2015 lows) serves as the immediate support zone where buyers are expected to step in.
Keep knocking on the door and it'll eventually break.Been watching this level since the start of the year, it seems that bulls refuse to give up IBM.
Knocking on the resistance of $164 again and again over the past few months. Eventually, bears behind the door might give way.
Open: 164.69
S/L: 162.01
T/P: 178.07 (gaps)
Earnings might be the catalyst, I've my algorithmic orders waiting.
$IBM$IBM [ nice bull flag. It was a while IBM give us such nice and clear set ups. Double stochasics set up on 1 H and Daily charts
IBM Perfect Gap N Go (Brad Reed Jan21,2015) Try #2IBM expected to open at 151.82 for a Perfect Gap N Go. To learn to trade this strategy for free go to www.RealLifeTrading.com
This Zone should hold for the stock to start its pullback180$ is an interesting target level for an upside pullback. In order to do so, $IBM must hold the current support zone which includes both structure and Fibs confluence support elements.
The weekly AB=CD pattern was the trigger for my entry
IBM, from long to shortMy long entry at 160 & 161 were unsuccessful. Price turned against me
haha caught with my pants down
Make some losses and so quickly turned short at 159.70 and immediately turn short, next quick target around 153.70
RSi trendline was broken, but overall bullish divergence still in play until signal break below prior RSI low.
