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SAMSARA INCSS

SAMSARA INC

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IOT trade ideas

6/13/24 - $iot - buyer <$30, but only big ~$20-256/13/24 - as written in a note prior to EPS, there's no getting around how expensive this is. even with $10 off the highs (from $40->$30 today) the stock still packs a 13x ev/ fwd sales multiple. is it worth paying that for 30% growth this year and 25% next where profitability remains strained and we've not yet reached true scale? here's the yes (followed by the "no"): - internet of things leader. best in class. growing like a weed and not yet climbing the s-curve - the 30% to 25% growth is wall street math (accelerating growth is tough to forecast and justify unless you dig in). mgmt is telling us they're at the early part of the adoption curve. 30% staying at 30% or going to 40% is just as likely as 30% going to 25%. if that's the case, you better believe sub 10x on that higher $1.7 bn in '25 (40% on the 1.2 bn of revenue this year) will look cheap. you'll also be scaling the opex too at that point. - love mgmt. sold meraki to NASDAQ:CSCO in 2012. founded $iot... and it's bigger and the dream is better. clear communicators, great tech (selling to COO's not CIOs) that offers obvious payback for customer adoption. here's the "no": - purely a valuation equation - 13x for 30% is objectively expensive on a factor basis, the equivalent "going rate" in today's tape (it's june 2024 at nosebleed highs but struggling software bids) is without question below 10x and depending on the moat, the execution (did they beat/ miss/ how's guidance) a sliding scale between 5-10x. i'd argue this one ( NYSE:IOT ) would probably benchmark at 7-9x when thought of as a composite of any of it's related software peers. - so if round up, 9x is the going rate... and we're at 13x - it doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand the incremental bid might not be there if we get a risk off event (e.g. it's not cheap, so PMs will be cutting exposure to this likely faster). - the stock at 16 bn valuation isn't "large". it sits in a lot of funds, ETFs etc, but it's not a mission critical own. if a PM doesn't own it and it rips, they don't lose vs the benchmark (which is how they all think) but if they do and it goes from 13x->9x... they underperform. there's career risk of getting too big too soon in this stock. so what to do? - i've come to the conclusion that i need to have some exposure to what i believe is a unique asset, best in class, great mgmt and the adoption curve/ growth picture is likely not reflecting the potential total addressable market in 5 yrs and this co's market share "today". i also don't expect the market (nor should it) to reflect this immediately beyond a takeout or something of this sort (which i'd say is a low/ or 20% probability). as mentioned above - if we sell off i'd like to add to it, and all else equal i think the risk in the short term is still more skewed negatively on valuation alone. but given the MT/LT upside i see, i believe it makes sense to hold it as a small position and monitor it closely. this is one that i'd love to turn into a core position. i don't like "not owning" stocks that i believe are one of a kind, expensive (but for a good reason) and where the expectations will be dramatically exceeded in the medium-long run. I'm at about a 2% position today. I'd love to get this to 5 or even 10% depending on what happens in the coming months ahead, especially if we can enter the low to mid 20s. at sub $20 i'm all in, but i don't expect that px outside of a black swan (and we gotta be ready to hit the bid hard HERE before other names). keep you guys posted as i make bigger moves here. be safe, manage risk accordingly/ stay solvent. V
NLong
by VROCKSTAR
6/6/24 - $iot - like co. but stock just too expensive into print6/6/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:IOT - > 15x sales for 30% growth is simply too much in this tape, need closer to 12x which is substantially lower. look fam, these guys are perpetual beat/ raise types. so there won't be as much a surprise if this happens. it's the $crwd/ NYSE:NET of the IOT space (he11 they even own the ticker lol). so we need to own this in the MT/LT context and in whatever pullback (if/when/everrr??) we get from macro. i remain pretty cash heavy into friday/ next week b/c i have a few macro views that keep me more cautious awaiting fat pitches. i remain that NYSE:YOU remains the fattest pitch out there from a single name perspective. still like NASDAQ:NICE but it's in the penalty box from the a. recent NASDAQ:MSFT announcement going into their turf (tho i see that as validation and timing was probably bc they have an analyst day next week) as well as b. rough chart. back to IOT. i'm a fam. i like it all over. but the price is not right. so i'm watching/ waiting. if i miss it i miss it. but i can't afford to buy this and eat what i believe is much more downside risk at this pt in time than upside risk esp when comparing vs. other names i like w/ similar growth and cash gen potential.
NShort
by VROCKSTAR
1
IOT May 2, 2024: A Bull Flag On April 22, 2024, I started to buy NYSE:IOT when it touched its MA-200 for the second time, forming a small base. You can see this trade in the related ideas section. I then closed the trade right below the MA-50. Now, for the last 5 days, after moving above its MA-50, NYSE:IOT has been forming a small bull flag pattern right above MA-50 A breakout above this pattern will be my new entry point. I like the stocks that can hold the key MA-50/150/200 while the main indices are still struggling, like now.
NLong
by longsonvn
🌐🔍 Samsara (IOT) Analysis 📈💼Market Overview: Samsara NYSE:IOT is at the forefront of harnessing artificial intelligence (AI) to revolutionize its business operations. Through the utilization of cloud-based data analysis, Samsara efficiently processes vast amounts of sensor data, positioning itself to capitalize on the bullish trend in AI and offering promising opportunities for investors. Notable Success: One notable success story is Samsara's collaboration with JJX Logistics, resulting in a remarkable 17% reduction in fleet emissions. This partnership underscores Samsara's capability to deliver tangible benefits to prominent players in the logistics industry, showcasing the power of AI-driven solutions. Customer Base Expansion: Samsara's customer base is rapidly expanding, with a record number of customers generating over $100,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR). The company recently secured its largest-ever deal with USIC, further solidifying its market presence. Additionally, Samsara's global footprint is expanding, with a significant portion of revenue derived from non-U.S. markets. Expansion Plans: To support its continued growth, Samsara plans to aggressively hire new talent, particularly in sales and marketing roles. The company is focusing its expansion efforts on regions such as Mexico, Canada, and Western Europe, aiming to further penetrate these markets. Investment Outlook: Bullish Stance: A bullish outlook on IOT is justified, especially above the $33.00-$34.00 threshold. Upside Target: With an upside target set at $51.00-$52.00, Samsara is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for AI-driven solutions across industries. 📈💼 Keep a close eye on Samsara's performance for investment opportunities! #IOT #AI #Samsara 🌐🔍
NLong
by Richtv_official
Watchout for Potential $IOT Short - target 21$Revenues are growing very slowly, and earnings are still slightly negative. PB ratio of 19+ and eps of -86+ seems well disconnected from fair potential valuation. Sensors are easy to disrupt, compete, and also it gets fairly easier to find significantly cheaper alternatives in low ambitious use-cases. It's not like NVIDIA in AI where there's still no proper full-suite support right from h/w to s/w across all spaces.
NShort
by aniHotmail
Nothing Works, Either The Trader Works or Doesn't WorkThis post is a trade plan of IOT. Making a consistent trade plan helps to structure ourselves as traders. This give us some control in the ever-changing uncontrollable environment of markets. At first, it may seem tedious to do all this work, but that is only because our mind resists any kind of structure. The title of this post is saying to quit chasing after the perfect method and spend some time setting our own foundations. Implementing a focused consistent method is like a framework that you can learn from and even design new methods from within that framework. The key is the focus and consistently in what we do. In the video, I also talk about the components and process of a swing and how I use them to design my methods. Don't think in terms of technical analysis, think about it in terms of structuring simple buyers and sellers to see who is in control at any given time. The end of the video gets cut off a bit because i tend to babble too much and run out of time but there will be more as I go through the 30 trades exercise. Shane
NLong
by ShaneBlankenship
IOT: Next true market leader? Company possess good internal qualities to qualify for TML (true market leader) characteristics and to be among performing stocks in new bull market (if we see one in coming year(s)). Among these qualities are: 1. Increasing triple digit earnings growth last two quarters in a row; 2. Consistent double digit sales growth 4 qrt in a row; 3. Analyst covering the coming are expecting it to become profitable from 2024, thus good rising eps targets; 4. Number of institutional sponsorship is increasing 4 qrt in a row; 5. Management owns 5% of the company; 6. Company is in top group and sector (IBD ranking). Chart is also showing signs of institutional accumulation is under the hood with strong weekly closes on volume pick up. Structurally speaking, we may see first impulsive wave structure - waves (1)-(5) - with double bottom corrective structure - wave (2) - are in place. In this structure holds true, price needs to stay above local Jan low and move confidently to next mid-term resistance zone of 41-48. Clearing 48 border will open the door for the path of least resistance towards next macro targets: 78-108, 130-176 and 213-290 areas. Wishing you profitable 2024 and thank you for your attention!
NLong
by artemfedorov
🌐💻 Samsara (IOT) Posts Profit in IoT Sector 📈Samsara, operating in the "Internet of Things" (IoT) sector, has reported a notable financial turnaround, posting a profit of $3.9 million. This marks a substantial improvement from the $18.7 million loss reported in the previous year. Key highlights of Samsara's performance include: Financial Highlights: Profit Reversal: Samsara has rebounded from a loss of $18.7 million in the previous year to a profit of $3.9 million. Data Platform: The company's platform gathers over 6 trillion data points annually, showcasing the extensive scale of its IoT data collection. Investor Sentiment and Outlook: Investors have responded with optimism to Samsara's improved financial performance and its position in the IoT sector. The bullish outlook sets a support range at $29.00-$30.00, indicating a level where buyers may provide support. Upside targets are set at $50.00-$52.00, reflecting positive expectations for the company's stock.
NLong
by Richtv_official