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INTERNATIONAL PAPER COII

INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO

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IP trade ideas

IP Late Sept updateIP broke out early Sept above the crucial resistance at $37.35 (April high) Also once it broke through $39 resitance line and shot straight into the low mid $40's where it became over bought The Long term down trend line (white line) did not offer resitance or support on either trip through it. There was some horizontal support at $40.21 which was the June high on the way back down. A very interesting discovery Is the the stock price is bouncing fairly accurately off of FIB levels Also VERY interesting is that the .786 retracement lines up with the 50DMA which is also close to the April high resistance Even long term Fibs seem to be in play MACD on the Daily has turned over, whether or not that stay will be interesting. Current overall market dynamics right now are low liquidity and a falling market. Which looks like it will continue. RSI still obeying the wedge except for the short period when it was overbought. I am currently short. Waiting for a retest of the bottom of the channel or lower support AND overall market liquidity improving. Monthly candle is not finished yet, but 5 of the past 7 months the candle has touched the bottom of the channel
NShort
by Kazparov
1
Trading in a defined range - non correlated price actionIP finally broke out above the heavy horizontal resistance of $37.35 which was the April high. The move actually happened as the rest of the market sold off dramatically demonstrating IP is somewhat of a non correlated asset right now. The $37.35 line has now been tested and confirmed as support once on the daily chart. I sold my calls too early last week and did not capture the entirety of the move up. But I did enter a small position on the retest of that $37.35 which has performed so far. The Daily 20MA will meet this horizontal support within the next few trading days as well which should only serve to strengthen it. While there have been some pushes above the resistance line seems to be $38.60-65 which correlates to the bottom of the gap up on June 5th. It is certainly possible to push above this now but it so far has appeared fairly touch at the moment. That being said a 4-5% tight trading range is pretty great. I am not currently shorting but would consider it if we got higher to the $39.50 range depending on other indicators. Still in the RSI wedge on the Daily. MACD looking bullish as well. Most importantly is that it's trading in a non correlated pattern to the larger indices. I think this is because the stock overall is not being day traded by retail, and moves according to institutional buyers/sellers.
NLong
by Kazparov
Failed Bearish breakdown turns to Bullish breakoutYesterday closed above support on the downtrend line, first time that happened acted as Resistance on the daily. This morning had a failed bearish breakdown below support which quickly got bought up and went all the way to new resistance overhead. I got a fill on IP 101620 40 C at .40 and sold later for .65 so handy profit there for a 1 day trade. Have reset that as a buy order which is buying of the support at the red line. I will also buy on the horizontal line at 37.35 IF it holds on a retest which is not a certainly by any means. It took 5 closes above the downtrend line for that to finally become support. RSI wedge is still intact. I feel this is likely to retrace tomorrow to bounce off RSI resistance. Might take a few times to have a confirmed breakout above the crucial 37.35
NLong
by Kazparov
Monthly chart update Should always take a look at the end of the month on the assets you follow and chart out the monthly chart. RSI at a crossroads. The RSI is now at the resistance from the downtrend started in 2018. This is a likely a leading indicator to the future price which has not reached the trend line on the PA The more local red down trend line from the peak in 2019 also has not been breached. The horizontal resistance around $37.35 looks incredibly important. Note the amount of touches (yellow arrow) where this level played an important spot on the monthly chart. We have seen on many assets the price accelerate upward after a clear break of similar resistances. Pretty crucial month coming up.
NLong
by Kazparov
IP re-drawn againEvery now and then I find it useful to erase everthing and rechart it with a fresh eye. Some of the recent movement weren't fitting into my chart. Have now connected the recent lows and highs back , creating more of an ascending wedge. Clearly the bottom support is well defined., although there have been multiple times where the price didn't challenge the absolute lowest support. More minor support drawn in as the dashed green line. For upper resistance there are multiple factors in play right now. 1. Two longer term down trend lines. from the high in Dec 2019 (red) and also from Jan 18 (white) 2. Horizontal resistance at $37.35 which was the high in April 3. The top of the wedge line which is a narrow red line. It ignores the two peaks above both in April and in June but those were short lived and come into play as the horizontal resistance mentioned above. I'd expect the June peak will act as that as well. If the price every gets there. This chart clearly limits the upside compared to before where it looked like it would be a straight shot up to $40 once the current resistance was breached. This seems more logical and a defined pattern is trade-able. will add back in MA's and RSI and MACD and other indicators. Just wanted to post this as a fresh start. Still bullish overall, but short term will will likely touch the bottom of the wedge again.
NLong
by Kazparov
Bull FlagAs expected IP not only fell to bottom to support (see my last post) but quickly rebounded on solid volume. Wasn't expecting a 5% day but it was on a sector rotation day. Note that the Bull pennant formed now has a clear separation from the red line downtrend. Still has closed below the key horizontal resistance at 37.35 which was the April high. Note as well that there was an earlier bull flag created on Aug 14th which broke down right away. So the one forming today is not a guarantee that we will break out. On the daily Chart. RSI has touched the Resistance line, A break of this has not happened since the peak in June. MACD is coiling but not really showing much. Note that the 200 MA is above the PA now and will likely act as resistance. A break and close above 37.35 is the key move. We will need another strong day for industrials and overall market breadth. I took profits on 1/3 of my long positon which I had added to Friday. As well I actually hedged my long position here in case we do see another retreat for today's big uptick.
NLong
by Kazparov
IP updateIP continues along in it's symmetrical wedge with continued signs of breakout attempts to the upside. There have been a couple sporadic attempts at new lows and highs which were bought up/sold off quickly. Important lines in the chart: 1. Solid white lines: The long term down trend from 2018. The line at $40 will be the strongest resistance once (if) it finally gets there. 2. Horizontal Purple: The high of April at 37.35. This seems to be an important resistance. Looking back on the long term chart this number was touched in a number of spots acting as resistance. This point has been tested 7 times over the past month, with 4 in the last week and even one close above. 3. Diagonal Red down is the resistance line off the recent peak in Dec 2019. The PA is currently also testing this level as well over the past week Time seems to be the more important factor here on the PA, given that its been range bound more or less for a month but it's now reaching the end of the wedge. Being that this is not a FOMO stock and buyers that really move the PA are big institutions, a longer sideways consolidation is not unusual and is likely building a healthy base for a move higher. Big moves come a sector rotation days into Industrial. Seeing a RSI wedge as well playing out which very much mirrors the PA coming to an apex around the same time as the PA. POC on the hourly chart favours a potential retest of the bottom of the price channel. This would also correspond to a test of the lower edge of the RSI wedge as well. I feel the PA has at least one more test of the bottom of the channel before breaking out. Perhaps on a down day for the overall market.
NLong
by Kazparov
2
IP Update Its been a crazy few weeks for IP. Earnings came out and were good. Immediately we saw a sell the news event, heavy institutional selling drove the stock down to support. The within the last 4 trading days we saw a gap down (which was heavily bought up) and a gap up which was sold off. Note the volume on the gap down vs the gap up. The buying after the gap down was heavy volume, whereas the volume selling after the gap up is light. The gap up as well was on a huge sector rotation day in the overall market. I feel we have two scenarios forward. One is the gap from yesterday gets closed and then the trend up may continue. Gap close has almost already happened today and may still yet. OR we see more selling pressure driving the SP down to support again before a big buyer steps in again. I kind of think option 2 is more likely given the big swings we have seen recently . The market is overall very bullish, and there are clearly some very big buyer/seller moving a ton of money through the stock. More than day traders in my view. A day like last friday had something like $150 million dollars that changed hands. I sold off some of my OTM calls yesterday to reduce my position. I did not have the best entry on those and wanted to reduce my risk in the position. Will ride it out with the rest.
NLong
by Kazparov
Sell the News / Key reversal dayIP gapped up on the open on a positive earnings release and then proceeded to sell off all day. This looks like a technical key reversal. Bearish engulfing pattern on bigger than normal volume which closed outside of the bull flag pattern it had been building. Short interest increased considerably as well. Daily MACD crossed over to bearish. Earnings report was positive however with much higher EPS, EBITA margin and equity returns. Forward looking statements in the earnings calls saw some increased maintenance costs and decreased demand for hygiene products but company profits, cash flows appear positive. XLI sold off yesterday as well showing that the whole sector was under selling pressure which likely added to the selling here. Being that the stock had a recent run up, and it was End of month this was likely profit taking by funds holding the stock. Algos jump on downward momentum stocks as well to get some added alpha. This looks like a short term technical reversal on a larger bullish trend. Share price should find support on one on the 3 nearby levels and the bullish trend should resume going forward. Note as well that yesterdays action closed the gap created at the start of the bull flag pattern. I added some OTM calls at the bottom of yesterdays candle.
NLong
by Kazparov
Bull flag prior to earningsIP has consolidated into a fairly clear bull flag heading into the earnings date. note that the price is now currently above the Point of Control on the Volume Profile. Key resistance is the horizontal orange line which was the high on April at $37.34. Will need a solid earnigs report to push above this. If this does happen, expect a sector rotation to flow into the stock price sending it up relatively quickly up to the $40 range where it will have strong resistance from the two year down trend channel.
NLong
by Kazparov
Crucial test for the IP uptrendShare Price is in a crucial area. Note the horizontal orange line from the April high. SP is currently underneath this and coiling. But support is holding for now and may be consolidating. Larger market dynamics are in play as well. There was a brief touch above July 16th which did not hold. Now that is our major resistance zone. A breach of that take the SP into the area of the gap in early June. That gap will also be strong resistance On the daily Chart MACD is now 6 days into a bullish trend and is still rising. RSI a very moderate 56 and rising slowly. The largest test will be the heavy white line down from the high in 2018. Its possible this whole uptrend is a big bear flag. A convincing break of that line will confirm a real bull trend and will require fundamental confirmation from earnings & company financials.
NLong
by Kazparov
IP uptrend updateUptrend in IP is going well. Bottom of the key resistance zone was breached yesterday and price is now consolidating. Showing a bull flag on the hourly chart. Note the difference between now and early July where the trend touched resistance, did not breach it and was rejected. RSI on the daily is only at 60 (approx) with lots of room to run. MACD on the daily just crossing over as well. The last MACD crossover into bullish held for two weeks. I am planning to add to my position if this current support holds and looks to break out.
NLong
by Kazparov
1
IP Approaching key resistance zone Share price has now closed above the long term down ward trend line off the peak price in 2018. Its approaching a key resistance zone which did not breach in early June. A crossing of this zone (two dashed red lines) should lead the price higher to the $40 range. Combined with upcoming earnings and a continued sector rotation out of Tech and into industrial and 'value" stocks I have a optimistic view of this happening. Have moved my SL up from break even.
NLong
by Kazparov
Time for an uptrend in IP? Have had IP on my radar for a few months. I know what you're thinking. "Why a paper company when tech has been blazing and most industrial stocks have languished. Three reasons." 1. PMI reports. Over the past three months Paper products have been one of the only industries showing growth in the ISM PMI report. Meaning they're having an uptick in orders. IP itself supplies roughly 50% of the corrugated cardboard to Amazon and has other online retailers as well. They also supply much of the bulk fiber that goes into toilet paper. Their normal order cycle even in good times is well designed to handle a short term order cycle, meaning that they are used to shifting their production to where the orders come from. My bet here is that earnings will actually be decent considering the Covid lockdowns. 2. Sector rotation. Time and time again we have seen a sophisticated sector rotation in the current uptrend in the market. Tech leads the way, but then stalls and consolidates while other "value" sectors catch up. So this is both a diversity play as well as following the capital flows. What we are seeing in the overall market this week makes me think I've judge correctly. Tech is now pulling back after, quite honestly, unrealistic gains and capital is looking for a new home. IP up 2.5% today on a very volatile day. 3. Trend analysis. The trend on IP has been very predictable and the price has bounced well every time it touched the bottom line. I'm in at $33.88 and hoping for a ride up top of the channel around $45. Curious to note on this second chart here is the long term downtrend line (in white) which the SP is just crossing. This had been some major resistance. We need a solid few days closing above to confirm it as support on a new rising trend. Happy to hear your thoughts.
NLong
by Kazparov