$jnug 3x etf for gold miners. Day Trade idea$jnug if it can hold these lows here at support 21.7 range. we could see this curl back up for a daytrade back to highs at 23ish with stop at 21.57
JNUG trade ideas
Jnug to Gold "More chop ahead before a bigger drop"Before I get into it, I just wanted to say, isn't is funny how this dumped? Remember how I was saying that big green volume spikes have usually meant that Jnug was at or very near a top. Its not 100% that way but its like 95% of the time. Good thing to remember.
So I have been really trying to find the cycles for Jnug. And I am bummed to say that I did not find it in time for the last bottom last month at just under $15. I wish I had made the adjustment. Oh well. I did not sell and have not lost money. So if my cycles are about right, then I think we are almost finished with the cycle for Jnug. I really do not feel that we are going to get too much more of a drop before a short term pop and then deeper drop. Maybe a couple more days down. The reason it partly to do with gold. This is only going to be a half cycle downturn for gold and that does not last long. So I have thought that Jnug may very likely follow the blue arrows. If we are lucky then we drop and follow the red arrow. There are a lot of potential channels that we could be trading in and it is hard to figure out which one we are in. But since I am expecting gold to make another try at a breakout, and fail, then I am expecting Jnug to also pop a little. Speaking of gold trying to breakout again. Gold is really running out of time for this Daily cycle to breakout. If it does not do it in the next week or two then it will probably drop pretty hard. So as far as gold, I cant see this half cycle low reaching past the 1240 mark, which is also where the 50 week MA is. Then I am expecting that pop. BUT, if it fails to breakout and if we drop to the bottom of that wedge, then that would indeed be a lower low, and I would be willing to bet that gold tanks hard. We have a double head and shoulders pattern that could play out. And if that plays out then I would expect the much larger head and shoulders to almost certainly play out. See the gold chart below
I also cant get out of my head the fact that the 50 week MA is so so so close to crossing below the 200 weekly MA. Yep, that would do it. It seems like this next two weeks or so is going to tell us the future for gold. Let us also not forget that there is another Fed meeting on September 20th and with the NFP and Unemployment doing so well, I can see that meeting starting to weigh on gold in a few weeks. I do not expect the Fed to raise rates in September and so I think we will get the same reaction out of gold that we just got. A short term rally for a few days and then a drop. If in mid to late September, price is where my arrows are, then there is yet another super strong force that will start pulling gold down and that is the intermediate cycle wanting to make its low. I believe that after two long 6.25 months Intermediate cycles, I do not think that we are going to get a 3rd long one. I am expecting this one to be on the short side with a maximum duration of 5.5 months. I am kind of leaning more towards the 5.5 months. The reason is that 5.5 months would mark 12 months since the last yearly cycle low. (Yearly cycles run 12 - 14.5 months). So we either get a very short 4 month long ICL so that we can have another short ICL to hit the 14.5 month YCL. Or more likely IMO, we have a 5.5 month ICL and that would line up perfectly for another 12 month YCL. Just to give you an idea, ICL drops should have gold dropping for 3 - 5 weeks straight. So gold should roll over in November.
So now you can see the urgency for gold to breakout, if its going to do it. Otherwise, this ship is going to sink and take Jnug with it. And my silver chart is not helping convince me that we are in a bull market yet either since silver and gold a somewhat moving in the same direction. Gold Volitility is at an all time low. In other words, when this breaks, don't be on the wrong side of it. I hope I did not forget anything. I will update if I remember. GL.
JNUG Long IdeaI suspect this will be a very good spot to buy JNUG. Moving averages are supporting JNUG here. Looks as if the ICL in Gold and Miners is confirmed. Dollar relentlessly pushes lower.
Cup and Handle working like a charm - JNUG let's go!Today dovish grandma provided gold bulls with an extra boost while drop-kicking USD bulls in the face. Gold miners will continue their up trend after consolidating below resistance. The measured move is in my previous JNUG post.
Good luck all.
Anybody trading JNUG? might be just getting exciting.Gold's explosive break today was a nice continuation of break-out from 3 days ago. Without getting too deep into the fundamentals, Draghi basically punted the EURO toward the moon and the US stock market's inflationary pressure is rocking the DXY into new lows.
The combination of gold strength and inflation makes junior minors a fun instrument. Careful if the S&P falls over (although, some people have been waiting for that to happen for 7 years.. LOL) because even if gold sky rockets to the moon, gains in miners could be stifled and dragged down by the index. Its a tricky trade, buyer beware.
Jnug to gold "I dont think we are finished dropping yet"I was on vacation out of the country for the last week so I have not been able to update anything. But there really was not much to update. So to cut to the chase, it is my feeling that we are not finished dropping yet for gold. I am expecting gold to drop into oversold on the RSI 14 and also drop below the march low before having a legitimate bounce. So lets look at todays action. Gold burst up but miners barely moved. That should raise eyebrows and signal caution if you are looking to go long. If you are dead set on going long, what would it hurt to wait a little bit for confirmation. If you are wrong, then it will hurt a lot if my opinion is correct and Gold and Jnug drop. It appears to me that Jnug is working out its wave 4 and should provide a 5th wave soon. We have a short term bounce playing out from a small bullish divergence from last week. But there is a larger hidden bearish divergence that has formed and that should be respected. And as for gold, well, I am not going to repeat myself again, but I am waiting for it to drop to the longer term trend line which is in the mid 1170's at this point.
There is a large gap that formed this morning by the way. There is also that gap above. I wouldnt be surprised to see jnug fill the upper gap before dropping but I am hoping to be spared the agony of waiting any longer. I am also expecting gold to drop thanks to the breakout in the broader market. By the way, I called that. GL on your trading
- Here's one possible path... There is decent support here based on multiple charts: $GDX $GDXJ $USDJPY $XAGUSD
JNUG - Fallen angel type of Momentum Long from $21.13 to $27.13Gold was forming a ascending triangle & hit its target & now seems getting ready for a decline. However the Junior Miners have been almost opposite to that & now seems getting ready for an upward move. Moneyflow is very strong. WE think it has good upside potential from here.
* Trade Criteria *
Date First Found- June , 2017
Pattern/Why- Fallen angel type of Momentum Long
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $21.13
Exit Target Criteria- $27.13
Stop Loss Criteria- $19.28
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
Jnug to Gold "FOMC meeting and Brexit talks"
This is a tough spot for me to possibly predict any directional movement. While I do think that Jnug will drop at the beginning of the week and probably touch the $16.80 level with the help from gold dropping, the Fed decision is weighing on me. Just about everywhere I read it says that the Fed will raise rates on Wednesday. If they do raise rates then I think it is safe to say that gold will finally and truly breakout and stay up this time around. This would take Jnug up with it somewhere along the blue arrow. However,.....we have been having weaker data than was expected, and on around June 20th, the Brexit talks begin. Since there is a lot of turmoil throughout Europe right now, I am wondering if these factors will have the Fed wait on a rate hike this week. They waited last year right before the Brexit vote so maybe they will wait again.
Another thing is ....on a purely technical analysis perspective, gold still has not completed a true Intermediate cycle low (ICL). The RSI on the weekly has to get to the oversold level and the medium term trend lines are supposed to be broken before calling a ICL. All we have had are two good DCL's. I am leaning bearish for both gold and Jnug for the next couple of weeks as I am thinking that the Fed does not raise rates. I also think that the weaker inflation index's may also keep the Fed at bay.
On my Jnug chart I am showing the possible wedge a,b,c,d,e forming. It appears that we are dropping into the "d" and that would mean a small "e" pop. Usually when "e" is up, then what comes next is a breakdown. The BBands are still constricted. So a big move is still imminent. But nothing is for certain at this point. A few days ago I said it was safe to be short Gold. And I stand by that call until Wednesday morning. But it is probably safe at that point to wait on the sidelines to see what the Fed decides before going long or short for a longer term trade. If there is no Fed rate hike then I think that gold will finally fall into its ICL and get down to the 1165 - 1170 range before bouncing. I think that would happen in late June. That drop would tank Jnug and probably follow my red arrows.
GL on whatever you decide to do
Is JNUG broken??www.tfmetalsreport.com
If you invest and/or trade Gold miners ( JNUG, JDST, NUGT, UGLD, DUST etc...), please read noted article, from TF Metals Report.
Here is some items from article: By Pining 4 the Fjords | Friday, April 21, 2017 at 2:43 pm
Understand this is just one trading and investing Parrot’s opinion, but I have read numerous interpretations/spins/takes on the GDXJ rebalancing, the JNUG implications, and none of them have seemed to me to honestly get to the core issues or implications of this major event as regards the immediate future of the junior mining sector (and possibly the entire sector as a whole, in the short-term). So in this piece I thought I would lay out, part by part and fact by fact, what I think might be implications that nobody is really talking about, either because they have vested interests in the sector and are afraid of spooking investors, or because they simply haven’t thought through the implications or imagined what may happen if the dominoes fall. Understand that this is speculative, but also understand that to dismiss this thesis, you must factually explain why the ‘cause and effect’ I am about to lay out will not take place. It is not my intention to discourage or frighten people, simply to warn them of a possibility that seems to me to be entirely realistic based on current fact and evidence. If I am wrong or in error, I gratefully welcome different interpretations of the data- the entire point of this is for all of us to do well in the end!
Back in February I saw something in the charts that truly baffled me, a disconnect of a magnitude that I haven’t seen in 15 years of pouring over gold, silver, and mining charts on a near daily basis. There was a startlingly odd disconnect between the miners and the metals, when from Feb 10- Feb 26 Gold was up 3.6% yet the juniors were down 8%!!!
This bizarre, counterintuitive move was capped off by the big smash in miners on Monday, Feb 27 when GDXJ was hit for an additional 11% in a single day. When gold is flat over ten trading days, yet the juniors and down a whopping 20% over that same time on no news, something is definitely up. What is interesting is a tidbit our fellow Turdite Murphy sent me. In the final 15 minutes of trading that day of the big drop, Monday Feb 27, 775 million dollars of GDXJ shares changed hands... That is equivalent to entire average daily volume of shares traded in ETF in just final 15 minutes of trading. On “no news”.
Jnug to Gold "BBands tightening again, Big move coming soon"Yes a big move is coming soon and I think that that big move is down. Last Fridays poor price action for Jnug is the writing on the wall. With such a strong break up for gold, Jnug should have behaved better than that if there was strength. So while I think gold will continue up towards the top of its wedge, I think Jnug may not perform that well. I wont guess on a price top for early next week but I will be monitoring it closely. Then I will sell my Jnug and buy JDST. I am hoping that Jnug can retest the red zone again and hit the $20 area but I am losing faith in the ability for it to fill that upper gap. The JDST gains should be very large over the next two weeks starting after Tuesday is my guess. I am fully expecting Jnug to drop all the way down to $9.40 - $8.15 range. I am looking for GDXJ to drop to first test the December lows of $27.47 range. If that breaks then I would look to $26.35 range. If for some reason we actually get that low, then there would be nothing that I can see stopping a drop until $21. To put things into perspective. Since Jnug tracks GDXJ. If GDXJ drops to the $27.47 range, that would be a 14.8% drop. On February 24th and 27th, GDXJ dropped 13.6% in two days which translated into Jnug dropping 36.66% in two days. That would bring Jnug down to $10.95. And I think we will go lower than that and get to the $9.35 to $8.14 range. If we get to $8.14, that would affectively be a retest of the 2015 lows for Jnug (reverse split included).
After we get down there then I fully expect the Fed to raise rates and we get another rally. But it seems that the rallies are smaller and smaller. This once might be very short lived, maybe a month or two at the most?! That's a little two far in the future but I have been predicting that gold has not started its bull market and that gold will drop hard into early next year.
I will post my GDXJ chart and Gold chart next. GL
Cup & handle, backtest of previous TL completeJNUG has successfully backtested the previous TL and is forming the handle of cup and handle pattern. I expect continuation around $2 (pre-split). That translates to $8 now.
TP is $30 (previous TP was $27 so I still may take some there)
Invalidate if previous TL is breached.
Where Is JNUG going?JNUG is the Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull and Bear 3X Shares seek daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300% or 300% of the inverse (or opposite) of the performance of the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index.
My guess is Monday will be bullish, but PA could initially go down to 17.50 at start of trading, then like last week or 5/15/17, reverse back up. Good Trading!!
Jnug to Gold "a couple more days of upside before the big drop"I think that we completed micro wave 3 and may have also completed a micro wave 4 today. I went ahead and, assuming that this was wave 3, I measured the price action from the start of wave 3 to the end. The I copy and pasted it and adjusted it to start from the bottom of what may be the bottom of wave 4. As you can see, if we get an equal price move for wave 5 then we should reach the $23 range. I am still being a little conservative with my first target at the top of the second gap fill. However, I also went ahead and took a measurement for an equal percentage move and you can see the purple measurement as well. And lastly you can see the Fib retracement on the far right. I am looking at a price somewhere in the 50% to 62% area. Wave 5 is supposed to be the longest for gold but not always. The COT report ends on Tuesday. Lets hope it is this time and maybe we can see the price move to touch the red resistance zone. That would be an easy sell and then I would buy JDST. Since we are due for an ICL and since there is a pretty good chance that the Fed raises rates in June, I will let our recent history steer me. That means that we should see gold fall until the FED meeting on June 14th. At that point, we should see gold rally for a decent time, into August, after the rate hike and I would expect Jnug to rally with it. The yellow hand drawn line is my expected path for a Jnug rally with gold. Looks like an ABC pattern to me. I will post the gold chart next. Oh one last thing. If Jnug does shoot up over the next two days, then the RSI 5 will be very overbought. I am predicting that it will extend higher than the top form last month and the month before that. That is a bog hidden bearish divergence possibly forming. Hmmmmmm?! So up for the next two days and then Crash. GL This is just my opinion.
and one more last thing. That big blue triangle at the bottom is the approximate date range when I believe gold will reach its ICL low. I also adjusted my cycles for Jnug. If we just started a new cycle for jnug, then it would make sense for it to end a little bit before the gold cycle ends. seems to fit. we will see
JNUG Getting close to support lineJNUG had large fluctuations, raising from $9 to $125 and now coming down to $15.50. There is some possibility the price may bounce on the support line. Due to high risk, smaller positions are safer.
