MARA trade ideas
MARA 23/03/2024 A breakout candle occurred. Now we should build a position at this level. It is struggling to break the EQ level. However, it can find support from imbalances. 18.27-17.64 imbalances worked really well.
If we stop out, we should be ready at RL and d imbalance below to become a buyer again.
MARA not happening (Short)With the recent rise of BTC you’d think that the miners would move in tandem, one of the problems with the miners is that after the halving their job is going to get 2x harder. As you can see from the recent price action it hasn’t been a good play if tracking the price against BTC.
On the 1d chart MARA looks like it’s in the latter stages of a head and shoulders pattern, H&S is a bearish pattern possibly indicating further downward movement. Even though the H&S hasn’t confirmed I wouldn’t be a buyer here.
Taking a fib from the Dec 2022 los to recent high puts the 0.618 (Golden pocket) at around 15, adding a 200 EMA to the chart adds an interesting level we could see a small bounce from (around 16.27) before possibly heading lower. Confirmation of H&S points towards the 0.786 (sub 10) to a support level around 7.22.
Retracement levels, 16.27, 9.74, 7.22
MARA dropping to 7 bucks this week!MARA stock is in a Head and shoulders bearish pattern with 2 trend lines magnetizing it towards fibonacci 1.618 target to touch the trend lines. We have a bearish rsi divergence on the daily chart confirming huge selling last high around 35 or 30 i believe. Target for h & S is the top to the neckline which again brings us to nearly $7 near the golden ratio 1.618.
Bubble theory 🫧 BTC minersThere are two type of bubbles and they burst for different reasons? A bubble is when too many people hold something and what has driven prices up, now as a force works against them.
There's a saying. Buy things when everyone is a skeptic. Sell when a taxi driver starts talking about investing. There are no more buyers left on top.
First bubble is when volume dries up as the price hits extremes.
Second is when peoples attitudes or sentiment, or opinions change to bearish. And that can happen over night, like a switch. It's interesting and finance is a social science.
Some bubbles can burst due to external events, like start of wars or some financial crisis.
There can be strong bull markets and most of times, these external events would just be noise?
> Was btc miners in bubble? And what type of bubble?
I think Yes and No? Whenever there's a risk free trade, supported by factors a bubble emerges? The price of Mara was rallying hard, trend was strong. You could argue people got over optimistic, knowing the ETF decision was a risk event. -> therefor (the burst) was sentiment driven. But also predictable?
Bubble is when too many people hold asset and there re no buyers left. Similar how a taxi driver is hype about investing.
Technical analysis gives you perspective and context. In 1st instance, impulse was too high and volume indicates crowding? It's tricky because it looks so bullish.
In 2nd instance, impulse was too low. Price action looked bullish? bubbles happen when too many people hold the shares and expect them to rise.
If 1st instance was sentiment switch driven, then 2nd time, the bubble must burst due to exhaustion (or no people left to buy... at these prices.. similar how taxi driver hops in the trade at the wrong time).
Factors and thesis can be bullish - and bubble still bursts.
Is NVDA and SMCI a bubble?
I think there is difference between NVDA, SMCI investors and their time horizon? It could be. I think people believe their investment is supported by the tech drivers. Every dip should be bought out by smart investors and these are the best assets to own in next 5-10 years.
It doesnt mean there cant be external events and risks.
again- bubble is when too many people are in investment. So bubble can burst either by them changing their sentiment or beliefs (maybe fundamentals must change?). Or if price is just so ridiculously high or there is no money left at sidelines, that trend can't be sustainable.
When markets rally - everyone only reads good news and ignores bad news. And vice versa. #HowardMarks #MarketCycle
---> The Risk-Reward buying at these tops just isn't great. That's why they burst. Accompanied by sentiment risks, that hide behind the hood.
MARA is headed to 7.44!MARA is in a bearish Head & Shoulders pattern on the bigger time frame of 1 hour indicating a high possibility of success. This would bring the target to around $8 near 7.44 1.618 Fibonacci. If this is the case, it should happen this week, and fast. The RSI bearish divergence at the top of the H & S confirms this.
ABCD/ lightning pattern, & Cypher Converging patterns, Clean ABCD (equal length drives) off 20$ level, also 4 hour cypher (786 trigger) . This is a decent set up. Long of 20$, tp's are listed. This needs room imo think under structure listed at worst. Use connecting pattern to maximize profits, always Leave runner imo is possible. We have been watching this pattern for a while, patience is key. Price action is paramount. Good luck guys
MARA Marathon Digital Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on MARA:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MARA Marathon Digital Holdings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 26usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-6-21,
for a premium of approximately $7.75.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
As you can see in the chart, I'm bearish short-term but bullish by the end of the year.