Trade Recap: MEDP & LSCC - 24/4/24 to 25/4/24Market Context and Indicators (Closing of 23/4/24):
Directional Movement Index (DMI):
* DI+: 42.59
* DI-: 11.53
* ADX: 19.75 (indicating a weak trend)
Stochastic Oscillator:
* %K: 94.34
* %D: 98.11 (both in the overbought territory)
Correlation:
* MEDP & LSCC: 0.8852 (strong positive correlation)
Trade Information:
MEDP Position:
* Position: Short
* Entry Price: $415.00
* Exit Price: $406.00
* Duration: 24/4/24 morning to 25/4/24 mid-day
LSCC Position:
* Position: Long
* Entry Price: $70.39
* Exit Price: $72.35
* Duration: 24/4/24 morning to 25/4/24 mid-day
Analysis and Strategy:
Given the strong positive correlation of 0.8852 between MEDP and LSCC, paired with the overbought levels of %K and %D on the Stochastic Oscillator, we identified a potential reversal opportunity. The ADX at 19.75 suggested a weak trend, which further supported the hypothesis of an imminent price correction.
Trade Outcome:
* MEDP: Achieved a successful short trade with a profit of $9.00 per share.
* LSCC: Achieved a successful long trade with a profit of $1.96 per share.
These trades exemplify the effectiveness of leveraging correlation and technical indicators to capitalize on market movements.
Key Takeaways:
Utilize Correlation: Understanding the correlation between assets can provide insights into potential price movements.
Monitor Indicator Levels: Overbought and oversold conditions, combined with trend strength indicators, can highlight profitable trading opportunities.
Adapt to Market Conditions: Weak trends, as indicated by ADX, often present good reversal trading opportunities.
Stay tuned for more trading ideas and market insights!
MEDP trade ideas
Early entry in small cap health services, $MEDPSince late 2021 NASDAQ:MEDP is being forming a head & shoulders base with pivot buy above $230.
This is the beahvior of a potential leader. It shows when comparing it against the AMEX:IWO as is still in a downtrend.
The play for me would be to buy 1/2 or 1/3 of a position just above yesterday's high with a STOP-LOSS below $196. And then add at the $230 pivot.
Medpace Holdings is ranked #1 in its industry by IBD. I recomend to also check NYSE:VPG which is also setting up.
Its being hard for small caps to get demand as the indices are still in downtrends making the sentiment stay bearish.
But as JC Parets always likes to remember, "is a market of stocks, not a stock market".
$MEDP Power Earnings Gap (PEG) – Bull FlagMedpace Had big earnings beat, gapped way up and finished that day in the upper ¾ of the candle (Bullish). It has been digesting that move for about 7 weeks now and has formed a long Bull Flag. It just peaked out of that flag, and I’ve started a small position just to get in early. It is also low risk as I have decided that if this closes below the gap up day, that’s my stop and were my thesis is wrong. That equites to about a 3.7% risk. I plan on adding if / when it makes a solid close over the Bull Flag. My first target will be the top of the channel. See chart for my notations.
If you think you would like to make this trade, please make it your own and follow your entry, exit, and risk rules. Ideas, not investing / trading advice.
MEDP Cup and Handle BreakoutMedpace Holdings is breaking out of a textbook cup and handle pattern. As you can see in the chart, there were two possible entries on this trade. The first was an early "cheat" entry at 185.00 after the tightening pattern in the middle of the cup. The second and more technically correct entry point is here at 196.00 as MEDP breaches the high of the handle.
The recent surge on high volume is a good sign. It appears that institutions are piling in and the stock is following through nicely into new highs.
Fundamentals are showing tremendous growth as well:
- Earnings Growth Last 4 Qtrs: +54%, +59%, +50%, +66%
- Sales Growth Last 4 Qtrs: +7%, +13%, +13%, +36%
Accelerating sales and earnings growth like this has been found in most of the top performing stocks of the last several decades. I would work a stop beneath the recent swing low at 174.00 to risk 11% on the trade.
medptp 6 %
tp 12 at 190
buy 1 at 178
risk 10 at 168 ( 1 : 1,2 )
risk 6 %
Financial Strength 7
Profitability Rank 7
Valuation Rank 0
Last Report 2021.06
Trend from 2017.12
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MEDP approaching new all-time highMedpace is a scientifically-driven, global, full-service clinical contract research organization (CRO) providing Phase I-IV clinical development services to the biotechnology, pharmaceutical and medical device industries.
They do clinical trials for new drugs, including a recent trial for a neutralizing antibody for SARS-CoV-2 for the treatment and prevention of COV19.
With earnings surprises the last two quarters and a Zacks estimate for a strong Q4, Medpace is on track to make a new all-time high.
As it approaches the all-time high, volatility is decreasing while volume is shrinking. There is not much selling going on, so a little demand will cause this to pop above the all-time high and accelerate from there.
Buy point is at 144.49 with a stop loss of 7.63% based on the 10d ATR (x2.7). Position size of R13.1.
Buy Point: 144.49
Stop Loss: 133.47
Position Size: R13.1
MEDP, MACD Histogram just turned positiveThis is a Bullish indicator signaling MEDP's price could rise from here. Traders may explore going long the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I. dvisor identified 44 similar cases where MEDP's MACD histogram became positive, and 35 of them led to successful outcomes. Odds of Success: 80%. Current price $118.57 crossed the support line at $117.33 and is trading between $122.16 resistance and $117.33 support lines. Throughout the month of 10/14/20 - 11/13/20, the price experienced a -7% Downtrend. During the week of 11/06/20 - 11/13/20, the stock fell -0.77%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 04, 2020. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MEDP as a result. Tickeron A.I. detected that in 55 of 70 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MEDP just turned positive on November 13, 2020. Looking at past instances where MEDP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise, Tickeron A.I. shows that in 35 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
MEDP moved above its 50-day Moving Average on November 13, 2020 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.78% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MEDP advanced for three days, in 265 of 320 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
MEDP may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. Tickeron A.I. detected that in 203 of 265 cases where MEDP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 77%.
MEDP -small trade on runaway gapSmall trade may be attempted on NASDAQ:MEDP . Idea is that after yesterday's gap and strong rally during trading session, highly likely that gap is runaway gap. Such gap usually happen in the middle of the move, and thus price may target region ~90. Stop should be at the top edge of the gap at 74.27. Trade suggests around 2:1 in reward/risk potential.