If BTC Crashes, MSTR Has No Bottom Although I regularly have made bear forecasts on various things, I've never made a forecast of something going to zero (or as good as) before.
It's something that's outside the scope of what my strategies are designed to do. They're based on trend development ideas and actually I generally tend to get fairy bullish in tight zones on things when they are around 75% down.
When I make bear forecasts I generally make them with no regard given to what happens after they hit or to be bullish after they hit.
MSTR finds itself in the unique position of being the only stock I've ever made this forecast on (Maybe the only one I ever will) because it is apparent to me based on reading the 8-K for MSTR that if BTC were to make a technical break and follow the downtrend cycle implied by that, the situation Saylor has created makes it almost impossible MSTR doesn't go bust.
Or, more likely, they find some way to bail themselves out at the cost of the investors - like Saylor did in 2000.
Another thing you don't see me doing often is going out my way to talk bad about people. I'm just not that into it. But Saylor ... is an exception.
Saylor is the bubble man! Now, look - if you're into BTC, forget that for a second. I'm talking about Saylor. He has a history of doing something very specific - hopping onto a hype train, leveraging up to the max, encouraging others to take all in risk and seeing massive crashes in the stock if the bet wasn't right.
On March 20, 2000, MicroStrategy's stock price plummeted by a staggering 62% in a single day, falling from $226.75 to $86.75. This was one of the most dramatic single-day collapses of the dot-com era. The stock continued to fall in the subsequent days and weeks.
Saylor is a high roll gambler playing games to get his bankroll.
And the way Saylor has structured the MSTR bet makes it very hard to see any way the company could survive (without some kinda investor slaying event) a sustained downturn in Bitcoin.
I've seen videos of Saylor saying things like "If BTC went to $1 we'd just buy all the Bitcoin".
Compared to what is in their 8-K, this is outright lies. There is almost zero chance MSTR would be able to sustain its position in Bitcoin under $15,000 if it stayed there some time.
The difference between $15,000 and $1 is a lot.
MSTR's bet does not give it an exact "Liquidation price", as such. It's not like if BTC hit $14,999 the company would fail. But this idea they'd just be "Buying all the Bitcoin" is outright lies.
Because in this situation, MSTR would have no money. The way MSTR plans to raise money is selling MSTR stock at prices higher than it is now. If Bitcoin dropped and MSTR dropped, this would be far less attractive to do. The alternative is to raise funds from somewhere else (increase leverage)- but this could be hard to source in such an environment.
When the bubble boy is out of his natural environment of dreamland markets, he's not as popular.
Not buying all the BTC won't make MSTR go bust - what the problem would be as time went on is they have repayments they have to make on the debt they've accumulated. MSTR has three options how to pay this. Sell stock (Previously discussed), borrow money (take on more debt) or sell Bitcoin (At a major loss).
That's their options. They should have another one. The other option should be "Make money with the tech company" - but if you go to the weekly chart on MSTR and zoom out, you'll see they've never done that. MSTR is one of the worst performing tech stocks of all time - and in their 8-K they say they're not making money from that business.
MSTR only went up when Saylor latched onto the hype of BTC and began to deploy a leveraged bet. That for the second time in history began a sustained MSTR rally, the last one being when he did the same thing (Plus some accounting fraud) to run up the stock in the dot com bubble which then would slam and not recover until the new hype train in 2021.
I mentioned $15,000 as a bad price for MSTR. Realistically, I found it'd be unlikely MSTR can do well with BTC under 30K for a sustained period of time. Even if it crashed and then just ranged there for a few years, this would be very troublesome for MSTR. They'd have a lot of payments to make in that time with no money.
Their avenues to make money shut down. The tech company that never made money would probably be managing to under perform its terrible track record - perhaps redundant because of AI - the stock price would be in the gutter and all the people who'd be interested in lending to a guy like Saylor to do what he did would probably be quite cash strapped. Or wary.
This isn't even an isolated risk. It's not even the case you can say "If BTC goes to $10,000 and stays there for 3 years before it goes to $150,000, MSTR will struggle".
If it goes to $150,000, MSTR will just leverage up and up the price at which they'd enter into this situation of having known payments to make and no known way to generate the money to pay them other than selling BTC. Which since they would be progressively increasing their average price on that - would also always be at a big loss if sold into a downturn.
All of this assumes that Saylor can easily sell as much BTC when he wants to and that not causing an issue.
In the example of BTC trading in a range under30K for a while, our example assumes Saylor can sell BTC to cover costs and BTC remains in the range. Which might not be what happens. Given it's public knowledge when Saylor needs to make these repayments, and given it's public knowledge they have no means of making money - might not this lead to speculation?
If the market knows Saylor is going to sell, might it not front run it? Might investors and speculators not panic?
The idea of "Reflexivity" basically says that once things are in motion they will tend to feed upon themselves. Creating positive feedback loops. Good things breed good things. An example of this would be a stock rising makes it easier for the company to raise money and with more money they can make more money. Positive feedback loop.
But this same idea works the same in reverse, and the negative feedback loop for MSTR is blatantly obviously to see - so much so that I think it's inevitable if the "Risk move" in BTC EVER happens - MSTR will likely go bust. But as I keep saying, there are ways MSTR can survive - it just means the investors are screwed.
They can convert debt into stock. Maybe they'll find buyers for stock. Perhaps selling their Bitcoin can save the company at the cost of the share price.
None of them would be good for investors. And these are the only things they could do.
MSTR have taken a super aggressive bet. They've done it in a fancy way but they've basically used starting leverage and then the leverage of running profits to increasingly build a position into an uptrend. When you take the ideology out of this, all this is doing is super aggressively pyramiding into a trend with no trailing stops.
I can tell you what has to happen to your position when there's a bigger than expected pullback when that happens!
And, in this one rare case, I can tell you if that happened in BTC I see no logical way to believe MSTR does not go to zero, or as good as.
Saylor is an incredibly irresponsible man.
He has set up a situation where anything outside of the flawless bull trend over time he expects happens his company is almost certain to go bust.
And then he presents himself as the modern day investing Jesus to young and naive people with no market experience - telling them to take as much risk as they can too.
Saylor, hopefully in jest, suggests "Sell a Kidney if you must". I'd recommend he "Rent a brain if he can".
Saylor is an all in gambler. That's the truth of the man.
MSTR trade ideas
$MSTR (W)in pattern target $440-480💡 Trade Idea: Long NASDAQ:MSTR — Technical Breakout with Triple Bottom Reversal
🧠 Thesis
MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) has recently formed a triple bottom pattern, a classic bullish reversal setup indicating strong support in the NYSE:X range (insert actual range if known). This pattern suggests that sellers have failed to push the price lower on three separate occasions, showing exhaustion and paving the way for bulls to regain control.
Adding conviction to this move, NASDAQ:MSTR has now broken above its 200-day moving average, a widely watched technical level that often signals the shift from bearish to bullish long-term sentiment. This level has historically acted as a key resistance, and the breakout now turns it into potential support.
Together, these two signals—triple bottom support and 200-day MA breakout—provide a strong technical setup for a potential move higher.
📈 Technical Triggers
✅ Triple Bottom pattern confirmed across multi-week timeframe
✅ Close above 200-day MA, first time since
🔥 Increased volume on breakout day, confirming buyer interest
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry: Current market price (post-breakout confirmation)
Stop Loss: Just below the triple bottom support area (e.g., 3-5% below recent lows)
Target 1: 15–20% move to next major resistance (e.g., psychological level or previous high)
Target 2: Potential breakout to all-time highs if Bitcoin rallies in tandem
⚠️ Risks
NASDAQ:MSTR remains highly correlated to Bitcoin; any BTC weakness could invalidate setup
High beta and volatility; sharp drawdowns are possible
False breakouts can occur if BTC fails to hold its gains or if volume dries up
🧮 Optional Strategy
For lower risk exposure or theta-positive exposure, consider a bull call spread or cash-secured puts at support levels
Aggressive traders might explore calls if expecting a near-term BTC rally to lift sentiment
The bubble has been burstedThe wave theory looks especially clean for this stock. Clearly it had a big bubble which is now completed, and it's in a bear market correction at the moment which should lead to lower prices. I am expecting to see a crash all the way to $150 before the year is over! The funny thing is that this isn't even a cheap price either, since it would just be reflecting the NAV value. Falling in half just makes the price fair, since it's already 2x overvalued. 528 thousand bitcoins is worth only 48 billion dollars, while Microstrategy's market cap is is 93 billion dollars. Saylor is going to continue issuing stock to buy more Bitcoins, which will push the price much lower.
MSTR | Long | Ethereum | (April 2025)MSTR | Long | Ethereum & Solana Proxy Play + Channel Breakout | (April 2025)
1️⃣ Short Insight Summary:
MicroStrategy (MSTR) has become more than just a Bitcoin holding company — it's increasingly acting like a proxy for broader crypto exposure. With growing ties to Ethereum and Solana narratives, and a breakout from a parallel channel, this setup is getting very interesting.
2️⃣ Trade Parameters:
Bias: Long
Entry Zone: $300–$320 (waiting for a dip from the current price around $343)
Stop Loss: $292
TP1: $392
TP2: $427
✅ Watching the $250 area as a deeper re-entry opportunity if the market corrects — potential for extended upside if crypto momentum continues.
3️⃣ Key Notes:
🔹 Fundamentals & Correlation:
While MicroStrategy is widely known for holding Bitcoin, there's a growing trend of comparing it to "HODL-style" stocks — much like how Solana-based and Ethereum-based projects are getting equity-style proxies. MSTR is becoming a high-beta play tied to the crypto ecosystem, especially as institutional interest in Ethereum and Solana rises.
🔹 Technical Setup:
MSTR recently broke out of a parallel channel, flipping resistance into new support. Current price is slightly extended, so I'm watching the $300–$320 area for a more favorable entry. The 4H and daily charts suggest further upside is likely if this support holds.
🔹 Macro View:
If crypto market sentiment remains strong, MSTR could accelerate higher — especially as institutional attention shifts toward ETH and SOL. However, if there's a pullback in broader markets or crypto dominance metrics reverse, a revisit of the $250 zone is not off the table.
4️⃣ Follow-up Note:
Monitoring closely for dip entry and confirmation. Will update if structure changes or key levels are invalidated. Risk management remains key — don’t chase, wait for the zone.
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Disclaimer: This is not a financial advise. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
$MSTR sub $200 before $1000+?NASDAQ:MSTR looks pretty bearish here. We're trading under a key support and it looks like it wants lower. I think if the next candle turns red, then we're likely to see a large selloff all the way down to the lower supports.
If we can make it back up above this support level at $363, and close above it, it would be a trigger long. Then I think we're likely to see a large run all the way up to the upper resistances to 1000+.
Let's see how the price action unfolds here.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) - Breakout watch if BTC co-operatesMSTR is looking healthy above its major moving averages after forming what appears to be a developing triple bottom.
If you have a bullish thesis on the price of bitcoin at its current level, MSTR is very compelling. Any longs could have a clearly defined risk in the region of the moving averages which also aligns with an untested POC and anchored VWAP from the lows.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) – Lining Up for a Major Move?McroStrategy is looking real right on the higher time frame 👀
Price is currently hovering around $317, sitting beautifully between key zones:
Previous High: $543 — this area has yet to be retested. I’m patiently watching for price to gravitate back toward that zone. The momentum is building.
Buy Zone (Liquidity Pocket): $231 – $220
This zone was tapped with precision and instantly rejected — classic smart money footprint. If price revisits this range again, I'm looking for a strong reaction or a W formation before continuation.
Macro Support: $102 — Long-term breakout zone, marked as a final floor in case of macro correction.
💡 Structure is King
This is what I mean when I say let the candles breathe. The market is compressing after a strong impulse — exactly what you want to see before continuation.
If you're into swing trading like I am, this kind of setup is gold — especially with a bullish macro bias still intact.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) – Ichimoku Cloud Reclaim SetupMSTR needs a daily close above $318 to officially reclaim the Ichimoku Cloud on the 1D chart. This would flip the bias back bullish and invalidate the recent mid-cloud rejection seen near the $315–317 zone.
Why $318?
That’s the top of the current Kumo (Senkou Span B = $317.96)
A close above confirms a full cloud reclaim, shifting trend momentum
MACD is turning bullish, and RSI is recovering above 50 — signs of building strength
🔍 What I'm Watching:
✅ Daily close > $318
✅ Confirmed MACD crossover (on Ultimate MACD)
✅ RSI holds above 50
🎯 Trade Plan (if confirmed):
Long bias above $318
Initial target zone: $340–$355
Risk: Daily close back below Tenkan ($311)
MSTR In-complete Cup @ Handle Pattern Forming Early timing and can be invalidated.
My Crystal Ball got smashed of late.
My advice is to stay away and preserve Capital = Cash.
As always, please get a few outside Expert's Advice before taking Trade or Investment Decisions.
Should you appreciate my Chart Studies, Smash That Rocket Boost Button. It's Just a Click away.
Regards Graham.
MSTR Double TopDouble top and multiple rejections in this 310-313 zone. Looking for a retest of 287 for the next key pivot point, and from that inflection watch PA to see if we test the critical level of 273 (lots of trading volume and buyer/seller conflict), or we can bounce off that zone forming a double bottom heading back to the 343 retest.. interested to see what transpires!
StrategyWe have what looks like a breakout from short-term overhead on both the price, and the on balance volume. Look back in the charts, and you can see both price and OBV retrace prior resistance, so breaking up from that retrace is great signal. Now, strategy needs to climb back above $333, and then all-time highs are up next.
MSTR is close to the cliff.....elevator down to high 200sI've seen this movie before and been following MSTR / BTC for a while. The trends and profit taking don't lie. Stay close to BTC and MSTR, once this starts dipping it will drop hard! Good time to look into MSTZ!!! I've profited sooo many times from this trend and now so can you.
Best of luck and always do your own due diligence!
Saylor's Liquidation Risk (As per the 8-K Disclosure) So today I briefly skimmed through the MSTR 8-K and then dumped the whole thing into a LLM. Asked a series of questions. Here's a write up of the end results.
MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Gambit: Riding the Bull, Bracing for the Abyss? A Deep Dive Analysis
Introduction: The Boldest Bet on the Block(chain)
In the annals of corporate strategy, few moves have been as audacious or as polarizing as MicroStrategy Incorporated's pivot to become a de facto Bitcoin development company, acquiring staggering amounts of the digital asset for its corporate treasury. Spearheaded by its charismatic and outspoken Executive Chairman, Michael Saylor, the company has leveraged its balance sheet to the hilt, issuing billions in debt and specialized equity instruments to acquire, as of March 31, 2025, a colossal 528,185 bitcoins. This strategy, predicated on the belief in Bitcoin as a superior store of value and a hedge against monetary inflation, has transformed MicroStrategy from a relatively staid enterprise software company into a high-octane proxy for Bitcoin itself, beloved by crypto bulls and eyed with deep skepticism by traditional financial analysts.
While the upside during Bitcoin bull runs has been spectacular for MSTR's stock price, the strategy's reliance on massive leverage and continuous access to capital markets introduces profound risks. This essay delves into the mechanics of MicroStrategy's Bitcoin accumulation, dissects the specific risks acknowledged by the company itself (particularly those that could necessitate selling Bitcoin), stress-tests the strategy under adverse hypothetical market conditions, and assesses the validity of the critique that this high-wire act is fundamentally suited only for "fair weather" markets. Is MicroStrategy building a futuristic financial fortress, or is it, as critics contend, one of the ships most likely to sink when the inevitable market storms arrive?
The Grand Strategy: All-In on Digital Gold
MicroStrategy's commitment to Bitcoin is not a casual allocation; it's the central pillar of its go-forward identity. The stated rationale revolves around the perceived unique properties of Bitcoin: its finite supply, decentralized nature, and potential to serve as a global, non-sovereign store of value superior to cash or traditional assets in an era of unprecedented monetary expansion. The acquisition has been relentless. The company's holdings, purchased at an aggregate cost of $35.63 billion (average price $67,458 per BTC), represent arguably the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury globally. This isn't just diversification; it's a fundamental re-imagining of corporate finance, positioning MicroStrategy as intrinsically linked to Bitcoin's future trajectory.
Fueling the Rocket: The Complex Capital Structure & Funding Engine
This vast accumulation wasn't funded by surplus cash from MicroStrategy's legacy software business. Instead, it has been financed through a complex and ever-expanding web of capital market activities:
Convertible Senior Notes: MicroStrategy has become a serial issuer of convertible notes, instruments that function as debt but offer holders the option to convert into the company's class A common stock (MSTR) under certain conditions. As of March 31, 2025, the company had a staggering $8.21 billion in aggregate principal amount outstanding across six different series, with maturities stretching from 2028 to 2032. These notes carry varying interest rates (from 0% to 2.25%) and conversion prices. While the principal isn't due for several years, they impose ongoing cash interest expenses (totaling approximately $34.6 million annually) and represent a massive future liability. Crucially, holders possess "put options" allowing them to demand cash repurchase years before maturity (e.g., $1.01B in Sept 2027, $2.0B in March 2028, $3.0B in June 2028, etc.), creating significant future liquidity hurdles.
Perpetual Preferred Stock: Adding another layer of complexity and leverage, MicroStrategy issued two series of perpetual preferred stock: the 8.00% Series A Perpetual Strike Preferred Stock (STRK) and the 10.00% Series A Perpetual Strife Preferred Stock (STRF). As of March 31, 2025, these represented $1.615 billion in aggregate notional value.] The STRK stock offers an 8% cumulative dividend, payable quarterly in cash or, at the company's election (subject to limits), in MSTR common stock. It is also convertible into MSTR common stock at the holder's option.
The STRF stock, ranking senior to STRK and common stock, carries a higher 10% cumulative dividend rate, payable solely in cash. It also features escalating "Compounded STRF Dividend Rates" (up to 18%) if cash dividends are deferred, creating immense pressure to pay. It even includes a provision requiring "commercially reasonable efforts" to sell stock to cover deferred dividends.] Together, these preferred stocks mandate substantial annual cash dividend payments (approximately $146.2 million).
This structure is a finely tuned machine, optimized for a world where Bitcoin prices rise and MicroStrategy's stock follows suit, allowing for continuous capital generation. The danger lies in the machine seizing up if these conditions reverse.
Reading the Fine Print: MSTR's Acknowledged Forced-Sale Risks
MicroStrategy's own disclosures (specifically the Form 8-K dated April 7, 2025) lay bare the risks inherent in this strategy, explicitly outlining scenarios where selling Bitcoin might become unavoidable:
Covering Financial Obligations: The most direct risk stems from the potential inability to meet debt interest and preferred dividend payments. The company states: "Our enterprise analytics software business has not generated positive cash flow from operations in recent periods, and may not generate sufficient cash flow from operations to satisfy these financial obligations in future periods." If external financing also fails, the consequence is clear: "a significant decline in the market value of our bitcoin holdings... may adversely impact our ability to secure sufficient equity or debt financing to satisfy our financial obligations... if we are unable to secure equity or debt financing in a timely manner... we may be required to sell bitcoin to satisfy our financial obligations..." This sale might occur "at prices below our cost basis or that are otherwise unfavorable."
Meeting Working Capital Needs: Beyond specific debt/dividend payments, general operational liquidity is crucial. Bitcoin's volatility and potentially thin liquidity during market stress mean it's not equivalent to cash. "During times of market instability, we may not be able to sell our bitcoin at favorable prices or at all... As a result, our bitcoin holdings may not be able to serve as a source of liquidity for us to the same extent as cash and equivalents." The filing adds: "If we are unable to sell our bitcoin... or if we are forced to sell our bitcoin at a significant loss, in order to meet our working capital requirements, our business and financial condition could be negatively impacted."
Funding Note Repurchases/Conversions: The convertible notes contain features that could demand large, sudden cash outflows years before maturity. Holders can demand repurchase upon a "fundamental change," where "holders may require the Company to repurchase for cash all or any portion of their respective Convertible Notes at a fundamental change repurchase price equal to 100% of the principal amount..." They also have specific dates years in the future where they can exercise put options. Failure to secure funds for these potential multi-billion dollar repurchases could necessitate Bitcoin sales.
Unexpected Cash Outlays: Significant, unforeseen cash requirements could arise, such as material tax liabilities (the company specifically flags risks related to the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax under the IRA due to its unrealized Bitcoin gains) or adverse litigation outcomes. "If we become subject to the CAMT, it could result in a material tax obligation that we would need to satisfy in cash..." Absent other funding, Bitcoin sales might be required.
Inability to Adjust Spending: If revenue falters unexpectedly, fixed costs remain. "We may be unable to adjust spending quickly enough to offset any unexpected shortfall in our cash flow. Accordingly, we may be required to take actions to pay expenses, such as selling bitcoin..."
These acknowledged risks paint a picture of a company whose core asset, while held for the long term, may need to be liquidated under duress if its funding mechanisms fail during periods of stress.
When Might the Levers Break? Potential Triggers for Forced Sales
A specific Bitcoin price point alone is unlikely to trigger a forced sale. Instead, it's more likely a confluence of negative factors:
Sustained Low Bitcoin Prices: If BTC price falls significantly below MSTR's average cost basis ($67.5k) and stays there for an extended period.] Depressed MSTR/STRK Stock Prices: Directly hinders the effectiveness of ATM programs, cutting off the primary source of ongoing funding.
Closed/Expensive Capital Markets: High interest rates, general risk aversion, or specific negative sentiment towards MicroStrategy or crypto.] Approaching Debt Deadlines: As put option dates (starting 2027/28) draw nearer, market focus on MSTR's ability to refinance or repay billions will intensify.
Deterioration of Software Business: Removes any operational cash flow buffer.] Regulatory Shocks or Custodial Crises: Events fundamentally changing the risk or legality of holding Bitcoin.
Stress Test 1: The Price Collapse Scenario (BTC @ $30,000)
Imagine a severe crypto bear market driving Bitcoin down to $30,000. What happens to MicroStrategy?
Fair Weather Sailor? Assessing MicroStrategy's Vulnerability
The critique that MicroStrategy's strategy under Saylor is primarily suited for "fair weather" holds significant weight. The immense leverage, dependence on buoyant stock prices for funding, and the volatility of the core asset create a structure optimized for appreciation but exceptionally fragile in downturns.
Arguments for vulnerability:
Leverage Magnifies Risk] Funding Dependence (ATM effectiveness)
Volatility Exposure] Limited Operational Buffer
Mitigating factors:
Debt Timing (No immediate maturities)] Spot Holdings (No BTC margin calls)
Long-Term Conviction (Leadership unlikely to panic-sell unless forced)
However, the mitigants primarily address the timing and mechanism of failure, not the fundamental vulnerability. A company needing continuous access to capital markets funded by appreciation in a volatile asset to service massive debts is definitionally fragile. While they might not be the very first domino to fall, among large public companies undertaking such a strategy, MicroStrategy is exceptionally exposed. Should a prolonged crypto winter coincide with a broader risk-off environment, the "fair weather" critique would likely prove painfully accurate. A vulnerability score of 8/10 seems justified.
Conclusion: High Risk, High Reward, High Stakes
MicroStrategy's journey is a defining case study in modern corporate finance and risk-taking. By leveraging its balance sheet to become a major Bitcoin holder, it has offered investors unique exposure to the digital asset's potential, delivering spectacular returns during Bitcoin's ascents.
However, the path is fraught with peril. The complex capital structure requires a continuous flow of capital critically dependent on favorable market conditions. The company's own disclosures acknowledge that an inability to meet cash obligations could force the sale of Bitcoin, potentially at significant losses. Stress tests involving plausible market downturns paint a grim picture, highlighting the potential for catastrophic value destruction and high default risk if key assumptions fail. While leadership conviction and debt structure provide some buffer, the fundamental reliance on external funding tied to a volatile asset makes MicroStrategy exceptionally vulnerable to market storms. It remains a company built for the bull run, facing profound questions about its resilience should a deep or prolonged winter arrive. The stakes could not be higher.