MICROSTRATEGY stock forum
Possible 465 tomorrow??
According to chart
If MSTR still had the same amount of BTC they held at EOY 2024, the same share count, the same debt and the same nNAV, the price would be ~$516 instead.
The price difference is due entirely to the slippage in mNAV, which is caused by many factors. Chief among them is the 15% tax cost erosion beginning next year and the high dividend obligations that Saylor has created with STRx bond offerings.
Issuing 0% interest convertible debt, like they did in 2023-2024, is a much more efficient way of using leverage because it delays actual dilution for 3-4 years without obligating the company to regular quarterly dividend payments. With convertibles, all money raised goes directly toward buying BTC instead of partially toward paying current obligations (dividends).
The CAMT tax obligations is a different story because there is no avoiding those as long as BTC rises. And regardless of what BTC does from this point forward, they already owe around $2B in CAMT for gains prior to 2025.
Reversal up trend