NOV trade ideas
NOV - Our favourite pick You can't ask for more.
There are earnings in a week so lets hope they go quietly, we don't want any major swings. Let's see what happens and we will be back shortly with an update.
Its funny because we've been analysing NVO closely and I accidentally typed NOV, just to get one of the best looking assets I've seen since BTC at 25k - in fact they are very similar.
$NOV - Oil Drilling Equipment SupplierIf you missed out on the oil and crude plays of recent weeks, this play might be for you.
Oil drillers are allegedly feeling the pain of a worker shortage, and drilling equipment shortage.
According to CNN , "They can't find people, and can't find equipment," said Robert McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group. "It's not like they're available at a premium price. They're just not available."
NOV Inc. designs, constructs, manufactures, and sells systems, components, and products for oil and gas drilling and production, and industrial and renewable energy sectors worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Wellbore Technologies, Completion & Production Solutions, and Rig Technologies.
So this equation is simple. NOV makes the drilling supplies that companies are so eager to find right now. The stock is also at historic lows.
This could be a very fun play heading forward.
$NOV long idea$NOV is a leading company in the oil and gas drilling equipment and as we all know the US must start ramping up oil and gas production in order to relieve some of the pressure we see at the pump. The market might start pricing in some government funding towards oil drilling which requires heavy equipment.
$NOV has broken out of the range created since March 2020 and is now entering a low liquidity point where there was mostly sellers. This price action may get violent to the upside as funds who have low exposure to energy start to step in. Such as that of Berkshire which we saw on Friday's close; the conglomerate added to his $OXY position at an average of $50.
Targets are $20, $22, $24 and $26.
OptionsSwing Analyst
Daniel Betancourt
NOV: 1-2yr Covered Call StrategyReasons for likely recovery :
Fundamental Analysis
- NOV suffered under major commerce COVID restrictions' impact on petro use.
- NOV is poised to recover with the opening of commerce. Petro sector is critical for both recovery and any developments in the ALT energy sectors.
- NOV supplies the equipment to the petro market, insulating it somewhat from the volatility of the commodity swings.
Sentimental Analysis
- NOV made a series of small acquisitions that will likely improve revenue.
- since NOV supplies equipment its major stock price rebound lags the recent run up in oil prices and will likely follow suit.
- NOV under-performance in recent earnings was already priced in and stock prices surged in-spite, a strong indicator of market confidence in future performance.
Technical Analysis
- NOV has recently tested its 200EMA, consolidated, and recovered ~21%;
- NOV just had a bullish crossover on the STC
- NOV also has been beating VWAP in its recent bullish trend
- NOV remains ~30% below its pre-COVID levels.
PLAN
Entry Price: $14-$15, average down to $13.5
TGT Sale Price: Conservative - $18, Moderate - $22, Final- Set trailing Stop
Stop Loss: $12
Max Position Size: 5% of portfolio
Note - NOV hosts weekly OPTIONS. Average in to 100 shares (+). Begin selling weekly CALLs @ 1 Standard Deviation above average purchase price, while collecting modest DIV. Try to sell after 365 for long terms capital gains but do not violate STOP.
NOV: Ascending Triangle, awaiting confirmation (30PC)Ascending Triangle, awaiting confirmation (30PC)
Pros:
Flat volume during formation
Volume at break out
Golden cross in blue
PPS above 50MA and 200MA
RS above 0, and ascending
ATR Ascending
R/R ratio above 6
200MA ascending
Cons:
250RSI below 50
Target:
PT = 20.90$
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PAY to NOV Daily Hey guys, NOV is in a fake bearish movement with a sort of shooting star and a fake explosion in the volume of purchases issued. On the TIMEFRAME M1 we can see the shape of a hammer candle with a false return of sales volume, it goes on its last previous lower. What is outside the equilibrium zone make its trend reserve to go away on the several points of the bollinger. In order to check them after the VWAP while passing and finish on the top of the balance zone for a retest.
Big potential for breaking out the price with the return of momentum thereafter to the zone to reach a new one and stick to the next high. Before testing a neckline then brekout an area and go to the last previous resistance on this triple bottom.
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$NOV Poised for Breakout as Oil Investment Case Grows?NOV could be poised to benefit from increasing investment in oil capacity expansion as Crude Oil prices lift after low capital investment during the pandemic. Reopening means higher energy demands. NOV has been mostly left behind. Breakout possible above $16.
Oversold: NOV Here's the kicker. It may very well be true that the world is so starved for manufacturing activity that any additional supply coming online will crush the oil price. But in this particular case, the short-term fundamentals driving the oil price are not going to translate to the long-term prospects of oversold oilfield plays, and NOV is one of them.
This is an investment. Buy and hold play, or you can keep rolling over monthly options, but it is oversold and bumping up against technical levels going back 20 years.
I did include peers HAL and Schlumberger to show how the oil market's over-supply, and lack of appetite for any drilling activity, and thus additional inventory is affecting them and their peers, but their peers lack the technicals. In short, there's additional downside room for some other names in the industry.
The best thing to happen to this company is it gets bought during a period of market consolidation if global growth remains stagnant.
NOV - Potential Long TradeHi Guys
Below my analysis:
Monthly: Price at support levels. OBV bullish divergence
Weekly: False breakdown with bullish MACD divergence (both histogram and lines). Nice OBV bullish divergence. RSI just crossed the 30 level
Daily: Fresh MACD lines bullish crossover. RSI above 50.
On the negatives: strong resistance just above current levels (13 EMA on the weekly and 50 EMA on the daily). Wednesday's OBV POC has not been washed out ...
NOV approaching resistance, potential drop! NOV is approaching our first resistance at 30.16 (horizontal pullback resistance, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 24.17 (horizontal swing low support).
RSI (89) is also seeing a bearish exit where we might see a corresponding drop in price.