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A Guide on How to Stay on the Right Side of Market RiskStaying on the right side of the market is the only thing that matters in investing. The goal is simple: be long the things that go up and avoid the things that go down. Although this sounds straightforward, investors often focus too much on the upside potential and forget about the downside. In reality, avoiding the downside is by far the most important factor that will have the biggest impact on your total returns. This is because a -50% loss will always require a +100% gain just to break even. Step 1: Follow the Trend The most effective method to stay on the right side of the market is by following the trend, primarily through moving averages. The two most common types are the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The EMA assigns more weight to recent price movements, making it more responsive and effective for signalling the start of a downtrend, while the SMA offers a clearer view of the longer-term trend. The simplest way to construct a trend-following indicator is to combine a short-term EMA with a long-term EMA. A buying signal is triggered when the short-term EMA crosses above the long-term EMA, and a selling signal is triggered when it crosses below. This systematic approach ensures clear and actionable signals. Optimizing this strategy involves backtesting various EMA combinations to strike a balance between minimal trading frequency, lowest maximum drawdown, and highest profit factor. It’s also crucial to select assets that have historically adhered to trends, as these are more likely to continue doing so. Assets that typically adhere to trends, such as cryptocurrencies, fiat currencies, commodities, and tech stocks, are often driven by speculative or uncertain future expectations. By incorporating a longer-term SMA and adding a safety margin to the calculation, you can help minimize false signals from the EMAs. It’s advisable to compare asset performance not only against the USD pair but also against the safest investable asset in the selected asset class. This comparison helps determine if the additional risk is worth taking. Step 2: Draw the Lines Trend-following strategies are effective only with a clear market trend. Without it, prices may exhibit range-bound movements and generate false signals. Drawing trend lines and identifying horizontal support and resistance levels are crucial for enhancing the accuracy of these signals. The most reliable entry points typically follow a confirmed breakout from these lines, with older lines often indicating more significant breakouts. When drawing trend lines, it’s crucial to use both normal and logarithmic chart scales. The most reliable trend lines appear consistent across these scales, with a breakout observed on both further confirming the trend. Additionally, identifying reliable patterns like head and shoulders, inverse head and shoulders or double tops and bottoms can further validate trend breakouts. TradingView’s pattern recognition tools can automate this process and provide price targets, which can be helpful but are not always guaranteed. Step 3: Understand the Macro Following current macroeconomic conditions can enhance your understanding of the overall business cycle. The primary macro forces that influence asset markets are growth, inflation, and policy. These factors are subjective and not directly quantifiable, making them unsuitable for direct investment decisions. However, they are useful for assessing the market’s risk appetite, which should influence only your position size and not your systematic approach. The US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is one of the most informative macroeconomic indicators, providing insights into potential economic growth trends and helping anticipate inflections in the business cycle. Monitoring the US inflation and unemployment rates is also beneficial, as they significantly influence monetary policy. While minor fluctuations may not provide much insight, sustained trends that align with the Federal Reserve’s targets of 2% inflation and low unemployment are indicative of a healthy economy. Furthermore, tracking global liquidity can reveal the real-time effects of monetary and fiscal policies implemented by major central banks and governments. This serves as a valuable tool to assess the market’s risk appetite. In conclusion, this guide helps investors stay on the right side of the market by adopting a systematic approach that captures bull markets while avoiding major downturns. Recognizing that the future is unpredictable and that markets are driven by momentum, this method can both preserve and grow your wealth in a less stressful way. A disciplined, systematic approach, executed dispassionately, is essential for navigating market uncertainties. All indicators discussed are publicly available or can be accessed on my profile. Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by ingeforberg
5
Nvidia's Unshakable AI Dominance: Why No Giant Can Topple?Nvidia is renowned for its stellar performance in the AI chip manufacturing sector. However, the company's core strength lies in building a business barrier made up of a tight integration of software and hardware, effectively keeping customers loyal and competitors at bay. Over the past two decades, Nvidia has meticulously crafted a "walled garden" in the tech world, akin to the ecosystem created by Apple. While Apple's ecosystem mainly targets consumers, Nvidia focuses on serving developers who use its chips to build AI systems and other software. This closed system explains why Nvidia has maintained its dominant position in the AI market despite fierce competition from other chipmakers and tech giants like Google and Amazon. It's unlikely that Nvidia will lose significant market share in the coming years. In the long run, the competition over Nvidia's dominance will likely focus more on its coding prowess rather than just circuit design. Competitors are racing to develop software that can bypass Nvidia's barriers. CUDA: The Foundation of the Walled Garden Understanding Nvidia's "walled garden" hinges on its CUDA software platform. Since its launch in 2007, CUDA has solved a problem that others haven't—how to run non-graphics software, like encryption algorithms and cryptocurrency mining, on Nvidia's specialized chips designed for labor-intensive applications like 3D graphics and video games. CUDA supports a variety of computing tasks on these graphics processing units (GPUs) and allows AI software to run on Nvidia's chips. The explosive growth of AI software in recent years has elevated Nvidia to one of the world's most valuable companies. Importantly, CUDA continues to evolve. Year after year, Nvidia releases specialized code libraries to meet the needs of software developers. These libraries enable tasks to be executed on Nvidia GPUs at speeds far surpassing traditional general-purpose processors like those made by Intel and AMD. The Importance of Full-Stack Computing and Software Platforms The significance of Nvidia's software platforms also explains why Nvidia has historically invested more in hiring software engineers than hardware engineers. CEO Jensen Huang recently emphasized the company's focus on "full-stack computing," which involves everything from chip-making to AI software development. Whenever competitors announce AI chips meant to rival Nvidia's, they're effectively competing against a system that's been in use for over 15 years, with vast amounts of code written for it. This software is challenging to port to competitors' systems, which is a true advantage of Nvidia's coding capabilities. At its shareholders' meeting in June, Nvidia announced that CUDA now includes over 300 code libraries and 600 AI models, supporting 3,700 GPU-accelerated applications used by over five million developers across approximately 40,000 companies. Market Predictions and Competitive Landscape The vast size of the AI computing market has prompted multiple companies to join forces against Nvidia. Atif Malik, a semiconductor and networking equipment analyst at Citi Research, predicts that the AI-related chip market will reach $400 billion annually by 2027. In comparison, Nvidia's revenue for the fiscal year ending in January was about $61 billion. Bill Pearson, Intel's vice president for AI for cloud customers, states that much of the industry's collaboration focuses on developing open-source alternatives to CUDA. Intel engineers are contributing to two such projects, one involving companies like ARM, Google, Samsung, and Qualcomm. OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, is also working on its open-source project. Investors are flocking to startups working on CUDA alternatives, driven partly by the prospect of engineers from many global tech giants potentially making it possible for companies to use any chips they want, avoiding what some in the industry call the "CUDA tax." Open-Source Alternatives and Industry Dynamics In the AI chip sector, Nvidia retains a strong leadership position, but competition is intensifying. Startup Groq recently secured $640 million in funding at a $2.8 billion valuation to develop chips that can rival Nvidia's, marking the rise of open-source software and bringing new vitality and possibilities to the industry. Not just startups, but tech giants are also making moves. Google and Amazon are developing their AI training and deployment chips, and Microsoft announced in 2023 that it would join this effort. These moves challenge Nvidia's market position and push for industry innovation. In this competition, AMD has emerged as one of the strongest challengers to Nvidia's AI chip dominance with its Instinct AI chip line. AMD Executive Vice President Andrew Dieckman states that although AMD's market share is still behind Nvidia, the company is heavily investing in software engineers to expand its software resources and narrow the gap. Last month, AMD announced a $665 million acquisition of Silo AI, further enhancing its AI development capabilities. Two major Nvidia customers, Microsoft and Meta Platforms, have started purchasing AMD's AI chips, reflecting the market's demand for diverse suppliers and a desire for competition in high-end products. Challenges and Opportunities for Nvidia However, Nvidia's market barrier isn't impenetrable. Babak Pahlavan, CEO of startup NinjaTech AI, revealed that he would have preferred using Nvidia's hardware and software if costs allowed. But due to shortages and the high cost of Nvidia's H100 chips, NinjaTech AI turned to Amazon, which offers its AI training chip Trainium. After months of effort and collaboration, NinjaTech AI successfully trained its AI models on Trainium chips and launched AI "agents" in May, boasting over one million monthly active users, all supported by models trained and run on Amazon chips. This shift wasn't easy. Pahlavan admitted facing numerous challenges and errors along the way. Amazon Web Services Executive Gadi Hutt acknowledged early mistakes from both sides but stated they are now on track. Amazon's AI chip customer base is growing, including companies like Anthropic, Airbnb, Pinterest, and Snap. Although Amazon offers customers the option to use Nvidia chips, they are more expensive, and transitioning takes time. NinjaTech AI's experience highlights one major reason why startups like it endure the extra effort and development time to build AI outside Nvidia's "walled garden": cost. Pahlavan says NinjaTech's cloud service bill at Amazon is about $250,000 a month to serve over a million users. If the same AI ran on Nvidia chips, it would cost between $750,000 and $1.2 million. Nvidia's Response and Future Outlook Facing these competitive pressures, Nvidia is acutely aware of the high costs associated with its chips. CEO Jensen Huang has pledged that the company's next generation of AI-focused chips will aim to reduce the costs of training AI on Nvidia's hardware. Malik of Citi Research expects Nvidia to maintain a 90% market share in AI-related chipsets for the next two to three years. This suggests that despite competition, Nvidia's leading position remains solid. In the foreseeable future, Nvidia's fate will depend on the kind of inertia that has historically kept many businesses and customers locked into various "walled gardens."
NASDAQ:NVDA
by xugina78
NVDA Share Price Holds Above Psychological LevelNVDA Share Price Holds Above Psychological Level On 10 July, we noted strong selling pressure above the $130 per share level. Since then, the price has dropped by approximately 22%. Losing more than a fifth of its market value seems like a serious issue, but it’s not as bad as it might appear, especially with emotions running high amid fears of a potential US recession. Technical analysis of the NVDA chart today shows that: → The price is forming an upward trend (shown in blue). The false breakout of the upper boundary on 20 June mirrors the false breakout of the lower boundary of the channel on 5 August (as indicated by the arrows). → It’s important to focus on the interaction between the price and the psychological level of $100. On 5 August, when the price dropped below the lower boundary of the channel, it fell below this round number. However, by the end of the week, NVDA's price had recovered (along with many other stocks in the US market). It’s reasonable to assume that retail traders, who had earlier in 2024 bought NVDA shares on margin due to the prospects of AI development, rushed to liquidate their long positions when they saw the price dip below $100. Thus, the area around the psychological level of $100, reinforced by the lower boundary of the channel, proved to be an important support last week – from the 5 August low, the price has already risen by 15%, approaching the $116 level. This could act as resistance, as it represents the 50% retracement from the decline between the arrows. Meanwhile, forecasts remain positive. According to a TipRanks survey of 41 Wall Street analysts, the average price target for NVDA is $144 within 12 months. Is this realistic? It’s possible that by early autumn, the bulls could shift market sentiment in their favour – much will depend on the fundamental backdrop. Nvidia’s Q2 report is due on 28 August. Recall that after the Q1 report, which was published on 22 May, NVDA's price surged past the $100 psychological resistance with strong momentum. It’s likely that on 28 August, this level will continue to serve as support. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by FXOpen
2
NVDIA BULLS! DON'T FART TOO LOUDLY. IT'S TOO STUFFYhe AI boom is reaching the sort of lofty heights that characterised history’s great bubbles, from the Dutch tulip mania to the dotcom bust at the turn of the millennium. Investors have now determined that Nvidia alone is worth more than the entire annual output of Spain. Add in the tech companies expected to profit most from the AI revolution — Nvidia along with Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, and Microsoft — and the so-called Magnificent Seven are together valued at more than the stock markets of every other country on the planet. The American stock market’s spectacular performance over the last year, up more than a fifth, has been driven almost entirely by these seven companies. We’ve been here before, many times. New technologies often produce bubbles — railways in the 19th century, automobiles and radios in the 1920s, the internet in the 1990s and now the AI boom, which was triggered by Open AI’s launch of ChatGPT late in 2022. Driving any bubble is the same conviction that the new technology will revolutionise the economy, combined with the fact that nobody can be sure just how it will do that. So narratives of transformation become self-sustaining, as the stock’s rise draws in ever more investors eager to join the ride, creating a self-propelling upward cycle. In time, all bubbles burst, earlier or later.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Pandorra
Nvidia - Bull run to continueIn my previous post of Nvidia, i had suggested that Nvidia will bottom in range of 90-95. We have seen a reversal and Nvidia is heading north. Even if we test the lows again and the path for Nvidia is clearly upwards. I was expecting Nvidia to top around 204 by the end of the year, but now i feel it can even head higher to levels of 304 if it follows Livermore Speculative Chart and goes parabolic. We will soon find it out. If you like the idea, kindly like and share. :)
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by coding_thoughts
8
$NVDA Weekly #ADX Cross INBOUND...? Last Seen 2022... WARNED Between NASDAQ:NVDA looking like this... NASDAQ:AAPL rising wedge... NASDAQ:TSLA bearflag... Yen Carry Trade Unwound and absorbed fully in only 1 week?... Markets are faster now, but that fast? QQQs need #420 for the meme... Fate loves Irony... If you timed the bottom this week congrats... But market has LOTS of TRICKS... I think NASDAQ:NVDA dumps again this week... - Proph PS: How many knife catching dip buyer's think they times a sub 100 NASDAQ:NVDA perfectly?... #TOOMANY ... #MarketMakerz creating false demand via bulltrap imo... (10,000 IQ)
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Prophecies_R_Us
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-9 : Inside Breakaway VolatilityToday's Inside Breakaway pattern requires price to open within the body of yesterday's candle. Therefore, we need to see price move below $530.65 before the 930 opening bell in NY. If this happens, then the Inside Breakaway pattern is ready to play out, and I believe we have a much stronger chance (about 75%) for the price to rally higher today (leaving only about a 25% chance for a broader market pullback). The Current Flag formation on the SPY (and other major symbols) may present an extended range of volatility today and on Monday. I'm suggesting today's Inside Breakaway pattern will resolve to the upside. But I'm also warning there is about a 30% chance the markets will FLUSH-OUT to the downside today before resolving back into a Bullish price trend. The reason I'm making this suggestion/warning is because of the Flag pattern that is currently playing out. The closer we move toward the Flag Apex, the more likely we will see broader price volatility and bigger price swings. It is very common for price to become extremely volatile near Flag Apexes. This happens because the price has been coiling into the Flag Apex range for many hours/days and potentially weeks. That energy, when released, usually prompts a fairly large volatility range. Today, I warn that the $524-525 should act like a make-or-break level for Bullish or Bearish trending. I cover the SPY, Gold, Bitcoin, IWM, and more in today's video. Remember, I'm trying to teach you techniques you can use for the rest of your life while showing you what I see on these charts. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by BradMatheny
2
NVDA - SHORT POSITIONWe observe that NVIDIA stock has formed a double top pattern, indicating that the price may continue in a bearish direction in the short term. If the price breaks the support level of the double top pattern, a short position can be taken. The target level for the double top formation is $101.57. However, if the price comes back up and closes above the upsloping support line on the daily timeframe, this trading idea will be invalidated, and the short position should be closed.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by vf_investment
2