PLUG 5+ year base, wedge breakout comingPLUG currently consolidating in wedge for approx. 2 months with support found on an up-curling 50 day SMA. Uptrending its way out of a 5+ year basing pattern (this thing seriously looks like a Gold stock), the wedge is located just under major resistance, which is all of the congestion of the 2014 selloff from the highs. Theoretically, PLUG is in the Wave 3 from an impulse wave that began in 2013, with a 1.0 (minimum) extension to +$12, the 1.618 takes you nearly to $20 (ignore date associated with Wave 3 completion) and of course more upside is possible). I I am looking to buy the wedge breakout @ approx. $4.5 and give this one some space and time. Short term target would be range of wedge/channel + breakout level which would put you @ about $5.50, or just below the prior highs, so there is potential for timely profits.
-This chart appears to be a perfect mix of a short term opportunity which is in the midst of a very bullish long term trend, hence, a potentially great trade, as this wedge breakout may give way to a substantial move higher within that longer term Wave 3.
-You could view this as a massive cup and handle as well. All the same to me. When the rounding bottom is this big, I just call it a base.
PLUG trade ideas
Positive macro-context for PLUG (long term)PLUG seems to be a quite safe bet for the future. Here are my arguments:
From a financial perspective, EBIT is negative, but total revenues are growing at a stable pace since years now. Plug will certainly find it's way to profits when industrialization optimized (see arguments for this below).
EBIT is lower, but is explained by higher cost of produced goods (and not by the fact that they sell less). Productive investment is a key aspect in such an innovation demanding industry.
Plug is specialized in fuel cells and created an expertise in powering the following:
-Drones (hydrogen backed tech allows for longer lasting flights for these aerodynamics and size of machine) :https://www.plugpower.com/products/progen/fuel-cells-for-aerospace-uav-applications/
-Forklifts
-Robots
-But also a promising truck segment (www.bizjournals.com
There should be a growing demand for these 4 in the context of a development of warehouses utilities and delivery services worldwide: www.bloomberg.com
Amazon (led by an incredible momentum currently) invested in PLUG: www.investopedia.com
I wouldn't be surprised to see an offer from Amazon to buy PLUG, which would make the stock skyrocket, giving to Amazon the opportunity to diversify even more.
Walmart (which is more resilient than average during COVID as a consumer cyclical stock) is a big client also:
"Plug Power plays huge role helping Amazon and Walmart supply America during COVID-19 crisis":
www.timesunion.com
Macro-context: Environmental policies and Hydrogen demand & facilities to grow:
seekingalpha.com
www.globenewswire.com
Plug power can become a leading seller of hydrogen:
investorplace.com
PLUG - failed breakout vs. impending short squeeze?PLUG with 80% volume shorted today with a bearish candle on the daily..
The question is whether this was a failed break out w/ an inverted H&S or a set up for a short squeeze into earnings?
4.71 resistance but appears to have found support at 4.31 near end of day trading.
Expect that if 4.29 can hold, holding CALLS into earnings seem like an attractive idea. Below that level likely means we re-test the trend line.
Plug Power, Inc on trend Plug Power, Inc. provides alternative energy technology, which focuses on the design, development, commercialization, and manufacture of hydrogen and fuel cell systems used primarily for the material handling and stationary power markets. Its fuel cell system solution is designed to replace lead-acid batteries in electric material handling vehicles and industrial trucks for some distribution and manufacturing businesses. The company was founded by George C. McNamee and Larry G. Garberding on June 27, 1997 and is headquartered in Latham, NY.
$172 Million Contract with "Fortune 100" unnamed companyHighly likely that this customer is amazon.
If it is. THIS IS HUGE! And it is not yet priced into their earnings estimates so this could greatly boost earnings growth numbers in their next report.
They issued shares which is why the recent slump
YET EVEN WITH SHARE DILUTION... we are seeing a sharp increase in price showing that even though it is less scarce, shares are EVEN MORE in demand. I like this speculative bet
Short $PLUG - Correction Anticipation$PLUG is highly volatile and had a huge "buy the news event" when it announced a $172m contract over 2 yrs by an unnamed buyer. This is undoubtedly good for $PLUG over the long term, but an +18% move yesterday is optimistic at best. Shorting for a 5-8% profit exit.
Plug to Find Resistance at $3.80 in 2024 (50% Chance)PLUG is a risky investment for 2020, as I am not certain that it will hold its price or increase.
CNN Business thinks the following for the next 12 months:
"The 8 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Plug Power Inc have a median target of 4.00, with a high estimate of 6.00 and a low estimate of 2.75. The median estimate represents a +29.45% increase from the last price of 3.09."
Given Motley's analysis however www.fool.com , it is indicated that PLUG is just a cash hungry company that's burning through it faster than it can make it for the last 2 decades. On the other hand, simplywallst (site) sees the fair value as around $8. Even with that being said, the analysis from SimplyWallSt indicates that the company will continue to be unprofitable in the next 3 years.
Motley advises that TELL is a better stock option in hydrogen fuel cells than PLUG. I have not researched TELL as I am invested into PLUG for the past few days and don't have interest at the moment to trade into TELL and out of PLUG. The next time I invest, I will evaluate TELL and determine if I should diversify into them and will provide an analysis if that occurs.
However, what I will leave you with is this on the PLUG side. The average board member has been serving with them for 9.2 years. The average age of the board members is 62 years old. In the last 3 months, 2 insiders bought 112,286 shares of PLUG. On the TELL side we see that the CEO has been with them for under 3 years, and 1 insider has purchased 42,320 shares in the last 3 months (roughly the same monetary amount as on the PLUG side).
When looking at the stewardship and profitability of TELL vs PLUG, what stands out most is the following: "TELL is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of -27.6% per year."
TELL forecasted future growth from nearly a dozen analysts = -16.9% in the next year.
PLUG forecasted future growth from half a dozen analysts = 56.5% in the next year.
Your choice. I made mine when it comes to hydrogen cell stocks and am not backing out any time soon.