PLUG trade ideas
Plug to Find Resistance at $3.80 in 2024 (50% Chance)PLUG is a risky investment for 2020, as I am not certain that it will hold its price or increase.
CNN Business thinks the following for the next 12 months:
"The 8 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Plug Power Inc have a median target of 4.00, with a high estimate of 6.00 and a low estimate of 2.75. The median estimate represents a +29.45% increase from the last price of 3.09."
Given Motley's analysis however www.fool.com , it is indicated that PLUG is just a cash hungry company that's burning through it faster than it can make it for the last 2 decades. On the other hand, simplywallst (site) sees the fair value as around $8. Even with that being said, the analysis from SimplyWallSt indicates that the company will continue to be unprofitable in the next 3 years.
Motley advises that TELL is a better stock option in hydrogen fuel cells than PLUG. I have not researched TELL as I am invested into PLUG for the past few days and don't have interest at the moment to trade into TELL and out of PLUG. The next time I invest, I will evaluate TELL and determine if I should diversify into them and will provide an analysis if that occurs.
However, what I will leave you with is this on the PLUG side. The average board member has been serving with them for 9.2 years. The average age of the board members is 62 years old. In the last 3 months, 2 insiders bought 112,286 shares of PLUG. On the TELL side we see that the CEO has been with them for under 3 years, and 1 insider has purchased 42,320 shares in the last 3 months (roughly the same monetary amount as on the PLUG side).
When looking at the stewardship and profitability of TELL vs PLUG, what stands out most is the following: "TELL is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of -27.6% per year."
TELL forecasted future growth from nearly a dozen analysts = -16.9% in the next year.
PLUG forecasted future growth from half a dozen analysts = 56.5% in the next year.
Your choice. I made mine when it comes to hydrogen cell stocks and am not backing out any time soon.
$PLUG surges on earnings and upgradeBy Chelsea Diana – Reporter, Albany Business Review
Craig Irwin, an analyst with Roth Capital, upgraded the Latham hydrogen fuel cell manufacturer to buy from hold on Monday morning with a price target of $6, up from a $3 price target.
"The hope has been repetitively that Plug would reach profitability. It was always promised that by the end of the year Plug would be profitable," Irwin said. "This year, it is different. This year, Plug had two quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA . Fourth quarter is expected to have record revenue."
Irwin is a senior research analyst based in New York City covering Plug Power and other clean-tech companies for Roth Capital, an investment banking firm. He previously worked at First Albany Cos.
Irwin mentioned Plug's continued growth, outlook for record revenue and EBITDA in the fourth quarter and potential EBITDA profitability in 2020 as reasons for the improved outlook. He also mentioned that Ballard Power Systems Inc. — another hydrogen fuel cell company with a different business model than Plug's — has been selling at around $6.
Several other analysts that follow Plug rate it a buy right now, with an average price target of $3.75.
The last time Plug Power was worth more than $6 was in 2011 when Irwin said investors got overly optimistic about Plug's announcement it was working with Walmart. Since then, the stock has dropped as low as 14 cents in February 2013. More recently, Plug's stock (Nasdaq: PLUG) has been trading between $2 and $3.
The stock was trading at $2.92 on Monday after Roth's announcement.
Plug Power's most recent earnings showed improvement over the years of quarters with big losses. Plug reported gross billings of $61 million in the third quarter of 2019. The company still lost $13.2 million in the third quarter, but was positive $2.5 million on an EBITDA basis.
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Plug Power adds one of the world's largest automakers as a customer
Plug Power CEO Andy Marsh said the company remains on track toward its goal of $235 million to $245 million in annual revenue this year.
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Since CEO Andy Marsh joined the company in 2008, Plug Power has shifted its model from a focus on research and development to manufacturing fuel cells for the material handling industry.
Plug has shipped more than 28,000 fuel cells to dozens of warehouse customers, including Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) and Walmart (NYSE: WMT). And it has become the world’s largest user of liquid hydrogen, with 20 tons used daily, surpassing NASA.
The company announced an ambitious goal last month to get to $1 billion in revenue by 2024.
Plug said the growth will come from its anchor customers — including Amazon and Walmart — and the addition of one new multisite customer annually. The company expects to be selling more than 25,000 units a year by 2024. And it projects its hydrogen usage will grow to 85 tons per day.
More recently, Marsh has been mapping out a diversified future for the company beyond material handling. For example: In May, Plug secured a deal to supply hydrogen fuel cell-powered engines for 100 electric delivery trucks for DHL in Germany. The company also started a pilot program last year in which electric FedEx trucks delivering packages in the Albany area were outfitted with hydrogen fuel cells.
"This is the first time in the last 20 years that I've been following Plug that I have complete confidence they will make money in 2020," Irwin said. "I don’t know they will be profitable in 2019, but they will be very close… It's a different thing this time."
$PLUG Power Inc Bullish pre earnings Entry level $3.10 = Target price $4.70 = Stop loss $2.90
Alert set for break above $3.00
Short interest is high at 18.48% can help sustain a rally .
Long term channel is currently acting as resistance, but indicators are in a bullish trajectory with room to run higher.
The stock can be subject to large swings given its appeal to penny stock traders, so profits should be locked in on any rally.
Company profile
Plug Power, Inc. provides alternative energy technology, which focuses on the design, development, commercialization, and manufacture of hydrogen and fuel cell systems used primarily for the material handling and stationary power markets. Its fuel cell system solution is designed to replace lead-acid batteries in electric material handling vehicles and industrial trucks for some distribution and manufacturing businesses. The company was founded by George C. McNamee and Larry G. Garberding on June 27, 1997 and is headquartered in Latham, NY.
(Seeking alpha article)
Plug Power is a market leader and has a strong first-mover advantage in a big growth market. With the push by governments to tackle environmental issues, corporations are under pressure to make their operations more environmentally friendly.
France and the United Kingdom are two examples of governments that have moved to phase out combustion vehicles. France has moved to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040. This announcement was made a day after the Swedish automaker Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) announced a plan to only make electric or hybrid vehicle from 2019. The U.K. echoed the French plan and have committed to banning all sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2032. This is now becoming commonplace in cities with Copenhagen banning diesel cars in 2019 and Paris planning to ban all petrol and diesel cars from the city by 2030.
Deloitte has stated that EV sales were 2 million units in 2018 and expect this to rise to 4 million in 2022, and as high as 21 million by 2030. The company also sees this rise made easier with their prediction that a tipping point will occur around 2022 when the cost of owning a BEV is on par with its combustion rivals. BEV sales are expected to be 70% of the market by 2030.
Growing demand from consumers, alongside continued innovation and technology investment from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) will accelerate EV adoption. Indeed, if the current hysteria around climate continues then we can expect that "car shaming" of petrol and diesel owners will push sales further.
Good month for PLUGPretty good Bullish month. The month looks to be closing with an up trending head and shoulders. To me, PLUG looks to be busting out a consolidation state. RSI hit the oversold territory once on 3/07 for the monthly and stayed consistent between a 30-70 moving average. Months volume seemed busier than normal. Hopefully, Volume will help with PLUG's moving average to go up. I feel PLUG has room for Long term improvement.