Indexes creating a bear flagTariffs still rein strong and all 3 major indexes are sporting a bear flag! More pain on the way
QQQ trade ideas
Turnaround TuesdayVery possible we see a high today, watch for consumer confidence numbers at 10am for a move down or a final spike up.
Outside the Channel the bears Roam (Week)The QQQ has been respecting the 50 EMA since 2023 and has been forming and upward parallel channel, but now the QQQ is testing hard the 50 EMA, the price is hovering right below the 50 EMA; however, price still closed inside the hypothetical upward parallel channel and in a flip zone with wick candles. Keep your eyes on price action and the channel and the flip zone and the key level below it. If we get a bullish candle moving upward inside the channel that is a good sign that we may have a price reversal. 483.34 the 50 EMA may be the deal or the deal breaker. Please be careful and remember outside the channel the bears roam.
Technicals for long term analysisMonthly technical indicators can help to assess long-term market direction with minimal noise. Monthly indicators are less sensitive to market fluctuations, providing smoother and more reliable signals for long-term analysis. The chart shows several monthly moving averages, adaptive trend flow, ultimate MACD, Williams %R, and momentum according to the TTM Squeeze indicator.
“History Rhyming? A Deja Vu Moment in QQQ’s Price Action”Parabolic Run-Up Followed by a Sharp Decline
• Both patterns exhibit a strong rally leading into a rounded top formation before experiencing a steep decline.
• This suggests a classic distribution phase followed by a downtrend.
2. Top Formation & Reversal
• In both cases, the price reaches a peak and forms a lower high structure before starting its descent.
• This indicates potential selling pressure increasing at higher levels.
3. Volume Profile
• There is increased volume near the peak and during the decline, showing distribution and panic selling.
• This reflects a shift in sentiment, from bullish enthusiasm to risk-off behavior.
4. Downtrend Acceleration
• After breaking key support levels, the downtrend accelerates, leading to rapid sell-offs in both cases.
Key Differences:
• The first pattern (older) shows a more dramatic sell-off after the top, likely due to external macro factors.
• The second pattern, while following a similar structure, has not yet fully confirmed whether the decline will match the first in magnitude or find stronger support.
Implication:
If history repeats, price may continue declining after a brief consolidation. However, external conditions (macro factors, interest rates, liquidity) will influence whether the pattern fully plays out as before.
QQQ and Tariff'sMeaningful momentum to the downside, looking for price action to enter into my zones.
Weekly support seems to be the trajectory.
I would wait and see for this week to end and market uncertainty to calm down slightly before making a swing play of any kind.
QQQ: Recent Rally has not Changed Downward Trend The data speaks for itself—recent upward rallies in #QQQ haven’t changed the downward trajectory, with little sign of a meaningful upward shift.
📉 The bullish trend that began in 2023 has reversed, forming a lower high at 490 (200-day MA), signaling a major downturn.
QQQ Call (Big Picture)Just marking up QQQ to look for an entry long-term. Looking at the big picture from the monthly, pulled out the Fibster to get my retracement levels. After breaking the trendline, looks like it can head down to 38.2% and head back up or further down to the 52W L. My prediction is that it will bounce from the support I see in the past, which is where I have it marked as an entry point. Let me know your thoughts if you see this.
QQQ Call short What i see on QQQ there A short term support it has been down trend for a whole week the main reason If wee see the level 468.94. There support
Disclaimer- This what i think it will go
The week ahead Some ideas for the week ahead. I do think we'll bottom this week, but maybe not Monday. However, I think eager buyers will support price on Monday no matter how bad the gap down may be. Best not to rush in in my opinion.
My market direction guide with extended-hour. Work best for >+1 day till expiration contract. (SWING)
Personal Interpretation of Indicator:
5MA=yellow(scalp trend)
20MA=orange(pullback of a larger timeframe’s 5MA trend)
I read how previous candles are behaving around 1hr 20MA and use pullback test rejection for direction signal. (Trade Planning, knowing the MA are align with larger timeframes like 4hr or day)
Then, I use 15min 20MA pullback test with wick rejection to find cheaper price entry.
QQQ Critical ZoneHint: Zoom in for better Details.
Now price re-test the previous major Resistance that couldn't go above for 2-3 sessions now its strong Support level closing above this Zone at current prices indicating buyers exist.
Hold Current price indicate we going Higher.
QQQ: More Downside To Come?After the double top confirmed in mid-Feb, I expect that we see a retrace to previous pivot points around 495 - 509, where we will then see strong resistance. There is a confluence of selling points: the previous local top in July 2024, the support area found Dec - Feb 2025, and the weekly MAs turning over.
If we do find resistance in that area, I expect a continuation of the larger trendline break, with the high volume area between 435 - 450 being the most likely support. This would be a 15-20% correction from the top, which is fairly realistic. If we break down even further, then we would have a head & shoulders forming that would mean way more downside.
I will be playing the short side of this set up, since we have broken the trendline support (see my comment for where the trendline begins) and the MAs have now curled down.
Consider Going Long on QQQ with Key Levels in Focus -Key InsightThe current market sentiment for QQQ demonstrates cautious optimism with a potential bullish
breakout on the horizon. Traders should focus on key resistance levels as
indicators of momentum, with 485 being a critical marker. Holding above this
level could lead to a continuation of the upward trend towards 492. Watch for
consolidation phases if unable to maintain above 485. -Price Targets: For the
coming week, look towards a long position. Targets (T1) are set at 490 and (T2)
at 492. Protect your position with stop levels at (S1) 478 and (S2) 475,
ensuring a measured approach to potential downside risks. -Recent Performance:
QQQ has shown slight bullish tendencies with higher highs within its trading
range, supported by the broader market's cautious optimism. Trading has been
between strategic support and resistance levels, indicating potential to breach
critical thresholds. However, market consolidation and volatility remain
prevalent. -Expert Analysis: Experts advise monitoring resistance breaks for QQQ
as it aligns with movements in SPY and major stocks like Tesla. This alignment
is crucial for understanding broader market trends, allowing traders to
anticipate market directions. The anticipated temporary bullish phase could be a
pivotal moment for traders in capturing short-term gains. -News Impact: Recent
reports highlight Tesla's synchronization with broader market trends, suggesting
that QQQ will likely continue mirroring macroeconomic conditions. The sideways
movement observed in the past week points to investor indecision, requiring
strategic positioning to navigate potential volatility and capitalize on
temporary price movements.
Turning Point Good day Team:
The market has been moving quite mercurial lately.
On the daily on the triple Q we have consolidation that can determine price action upward for the buyers and downward for the sellers. However, we may have some confluences that may possibly favor the buyers.
✅ MACD (CM_Ult_MacD_MTF)
Histogram is turning positive, signal lines crossed bullish.
✅ MACD shows momentum reversal confirmed.
Ideal for a bullish breakout play if price follows through.
Williams VIX Fix (WVF)
Has a confirmed spike (11.97), with declining bars before and after.
WVF confirms a bottom is likely in or forming.
Let's hope for a clean break out, please see chart for key levels and indicators.
🧠 Final Trade Summary:
🔥 Most Lucrative Setup = LONG ABOVE $483.88
Backed by WVF, MACD, momentum, and structure
Only enter if 1H confirms breakout with strength
Stop under $480 (tight) or $468 (wide)
Target $489 → $491 → $500
Skip shorting unless price fails breakout and dumps on volume
QQQ strong buy at $400 June of 2025QQQ looks very weak. There are a few issues that lead me to believe $400 in June 2025 if a reasonable target:
This area of the chat has very low volume and now structure - basically straight up on low volume.
The chart is trading very technically using Fib levels (outlined with yellow / green lines).
The market has a very high level of uncertainty, as do businesses and governments
April 2 will likely be close to a top for the current retrace.
Interestingly, the -1.618 just so happens to be the top reached in 2022.
This is also likely to intersect the lower trendline (white) AND the volume shelf established as part of the previous high and retrace at the $400 level.
What do you think?
$QQQ - Trading Levels for March 20 2025
THIS chart is from last nights video and we’re at the bottom of the implied move here.
I went in with 473/470 bull put spreads here at
Let’s stay in range today
QQQ Going DownWe rejected from Resistance Zone now we going to support zone 4h (4 hours green zone) which i strongly believe we will bounce higher from there.
Note: bounce higher doesn't mean end of down going we still don't have confirmation but it means that we will get couple of sessions with decent profit to enjoy profit.
MASSIVE $QQQ BOUNCE INCOMING!MASSIVE NASDAQ:QQQ BOUNCE INCOMING!🚀
I believe we are setting up for a run to the 200DMA around $494ish🎯
- Wr% is uptrending after breaking out of Bearish WCB
- MACD is uptrending with the histogram rising
- RSI uptrending and broke out of bearish box
- Stochastic uptrending into the sweet spot after
breaking out of bearish box
We keep rejecting off the H5_S by wicking off it, which is bearish, but all other indicator show bullishness...
I could be wrong, but it's what the probabilities of everything and my GUT tell me.
Not financial advice
QQQuadruple witching tomorrowQuadruple witching is tomorrow 3/21/25. It refers to the simultaneous expiration of four types of derivative contracts: stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single-stock futures. The expiration of these contracts can lead to increased trading volume and market volatility, especially during the last hour of trading, known as the "witching hour".
QQQ is sitting at it's 2 year trend channel support level. Also, QQQ stochastic on the weekly chart is oversold. This is a high probability, low risk long setup. However, if this 2 year trend breaks down, then a new trend will take shape. To try to get the best entry, it would make sense to leg into the long position with 3 separate trades over the course of the next 3 days, 3/20, 3/21 & 3/24.
Long trade idea:
Long = 475
Stop = 465
Profit = 535
bull put spread 1 : 4 - risk : reward
4/17, 5/16 or 6/20 expiry
sell 535 put
buy 480 put
or
4/17, 5/16 or 6/20 expiry
buy 480 call
Options data:
3/21 expiry
Put Volume Total 225,663
Call Volume Total 253,501
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.89
Put Open Interest Total 1,116,319
Call Open Interest Total 1,009,483
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.11
4/17 expiry
Put Volume Total 51,129
Call Volume Total 58,065
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.88
Put Open Interest Total 742,165
Call Open Interest Total 459,072
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.62
5/16 expiry
Put Volume Total 30,172
Call Volume Total 26,170
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.15
Put Open Interest Total 223,535
Call Open Interest Total 173,491
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.29
6/20 expiry
Put Volume Total 21,202
Call Volume Total 10,509
Put/Call Volume Ratio 2.02
Put Open Interest Total 1,040,493
Call Open Interest Total 459,733
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 2.26
$QQQ - Trading Levels for March 20 2025NASDAQ:QQQ - Trading Levels for March 20 2025
THIS is the game plan today - if you know you know.
