Get started
RIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE INCRIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE INCRIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE INC

RIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE INC

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview Financials News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Forecast Seasonals Bonds

RIVN trade ideas

Did Rivian Finally Bottom???I had a follower ask me about Rivian as it has been a while since I have updated you all on its price action. On 26 April, we hit a low of $11.68 and have thus far retraced impulsively with only OMH needed to complete this wave (1). After this wave (1) completes, we should head down for wave (2), which ideally should be a 3-wave pattern into the HKEX:12 - $12.25 area. My ALT count suggests we haven't bottomed yet and this is still wave IV with OML to follow. The ALT endpoint is labeled by a yellow box with the count in turquoise. I went ahead and bought 100 shares today @ market price to start because $0.4 is nothing if my count is right. Once my count gets validated, I will increase my holdings on the wave (2) retrace. If it is wrong, and we take off like a rocket (still right thesis), I would have at least obtained a small position at these prices. If Rivian still hasn't bottomed (ALT count) and we drop for another low... well that's what we use stops for . In which case, I would just buy again at my ALT bottom. Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TSuth
2
$RIVN EV Stocks Winners & LosersTrying to grab a piece of the EV stocks market cake, Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) is an EV manufacturer that went public back in 2021. However, RIVN stock has dropped 93% from its IPO until now. Ever-growing losses have led analysts to cut their RIVN price targets – adding to the bearish market sentiment. After TSLA’s poor Q1 guidance, EV stocks have been particularly hit and RIVN is no exception. But has all the risks/downside been priced into RIVN stock which now trades at HKEX:12 ? With no major upcoming catalysts to save it, RIVN stock price is likely still overpriced compared to other EV stocks considering that its EV competitors are valued at a discount compared to RIVN. RIVN Fundamentals In its Q4 earnings call, RIVN stated that it aims to produce 50,000 vehicles in 2022, but the company is still suffering from supply chain and capital issues which might be the reason for the company’s underwhelming production numbers in Q1 2023. However, the company is trying to raise its cash intake by revisiting the terms of its EV trucks exclusivity agreement with Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) to bring in more customers. EV Stocks Survivor As of now, the EV stocks market overall is looking bearish, thanks to the biggest name in the industry Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock price dropping following its Q1 earnings results. TSLA barely met analysts’ expectations due to raw material, commodity, logistics, warranty costs, and lowered revenues according to the company. But the nail in the coffin was Elon Musk’s statement regarding the EV market’s uncertainty due to the current economic environment. Inflation and the likelihood of a recession are affecting consumers’ discretionary spending – something that impacts all EV companies, not just TSLA. While Tesla is attempting to weather the storm by cutting its vehicle prices at the start of the year in an attempt to attract more customers, this environment will put pressure on EV startups like RIVN. Unlike Tesla, RIVN increased its vehicle prices during 2022 and faces competition from the likes of Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC (NASDAQ: PSNY), NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO), Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) and Mullen Automotive, Inc.(NASDAQ: MULN). The question on some investors’ minds right now is which of the EV stocks could survive. Compared to PSNY, the company has been narrowing its losses after reporting a decrease in its net loss YoY from HKEX:1 billion to $465.8 million while RIVN’s losses widened from $4.6 billion to $6.7 billion. Additionally, RIVN is lagging in delivery numbers. RIVN delivered 20,332 vehicles to customers while Polestar delivered around 51,500 in 2022. Despite these figures, RIVN stock is trading at nearly three times the price of PSNY indicating that RIVN could still be overvalued. Compared with another competitor RIVN’s delivery numbers are also falling behind that of NIO with the NIO delivering 122,486 vehicles in 2022 – more than 5 times those delivered by RIVN – yet NIO’s stock is trading at nearly two-thirds the price of RIVN. This further indicates the possibility of RIVN being overvalued in contrast to other EV stocks. Production and Capital Issues Aiming to increase its production numbers by 105%, RIVN is expecting to produce 50,000 vehicles in 2023 and build a second plant to start producing a new series of vehicles for release in 2026. However, as a result of supply chain disruptions, RIVN still faces a great deal of production issues, especially due to the everlasting semiconductor shortage. Digging into RIVN’s Q1 2023 vehicle production and delivery numbers, the company’s production has declined in contrast to Q4 2022. RIVN produced 10,020 vehicles and delivered 8,054 vehicles in Q4 2022 while producing 9,395 vehicles and delivering 7,946 vehicles in Q1 2023. This QoQ decrease indicates that these supply chain issues could continue to impact production – ultimately affecting its sales and raising concerns about the company’s capital. This is not a good sign for a company burning through cash. In 2022 alone, RIVN spent $6.6 billion and after reporting a decrease in its cash position from $13.2 billion in Q3 2022 to $11.5 billion in Q4 2022, at this rate, it will have to raise capital in the future. Raising capital could dilute current shareholders, but with a cash runway of roughly 2.5 years based on its current expenditures dilution could still be a ways off. Additionally, its need to raise capital could be offset by revenue if it is able to pick up production during this time. Amazon Exclusivity Deal On this note, RIVN is attempting to raise its cash intake by seeking to adjust its exclusivity agreement with Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN). In 2019 RIVN made a deal with AMZN to exclusively deliver up to 100,000 EV delivery trucks over the next 4 years, obligating AMZN to purchase at least 10,000 trucks per year. Meaning RIVN cannot sell its trucks to any other company even though AMZN has barely ordered over 10,000 vehicles. While Amazon’s lack of enthusiasm for RIVN’s product is a bearish sign, loosening its deal with AMZN could help RIVN attract more customers and potentially secure more orders. RIVN Stock Price Targets Considering the bearish outlook, it is not surprising that analysts at The Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets halved their price target for RIVN – cutting it to HKEX:14 and dropping its rating from outperform to sector perform. Moreover, Alexander Potter from Piper Sandler reduced his price target by 76% from HKEX:63 to $15. With RIVN’s net loss increasing YoY from $4.6 billion to $6.7 billion, these price cuts are hardly an overreaction, but investors may be wondering if there is more downside for the stock price. Losing Eligibility for Tax Credits Some investors got their answer after the Treasury Department released its long-anticipated battery guidance for federal EV tax credits. As a result of rules mandating that a certain amount of battery materials be sourced in the US, RIVN’s vehicles are no longer eligible for HKEX:7 ,500 tax credits. While they still qualify for half this amount, these rulings could affect demand moving forward. RIVN Stock Q1 Earnings RIVN is to report its Q1 earnings on May 9th after hours, where analysts expect the company to report revenue of $656.6 and an EPS of -1.61 RIVN Financials In its 2022 annual report, RIVN reported $17.8 billion in assets, including $11.5 billion in cash. RIVN witnessed a decline in assets from $22.2 billion including $18.1 billion in cash in 2021. RIVN’s liabilities grew YoY from $2.7 billion to HKEX:4 billion as its current liabilities increased from $1.3 billion to $2.4 billion. Additionally, the company’s long-term debt slightly increased YoY from $1.226 billion to $1.231 billion. RIVN revenues grew YoY from HKEX:55 million to $1.6 billion, however, its gross loss widened from HKEX:465 million to $3.1 billion due to an increase in its cost of revenues from HKEX:520 million to $4.7 billion. Finally, the company’s operating losses increased YoY from $4.2 billion to $6.8 billion and its net losses increased from $4.6 billion to $6.7 billion. Technical Analysis RIVN trend is bearish as it is trading in a downward channel. Looking at the indicators, RIVN stock is now trading below the 21 MA, 50 MA, and 200 MA which is a bearish sign. The RSI is approaching oversold at 31 and the MACD is bullish but is approaching a bearish crossover. Fundamentally, RIVN has no major catalysts coming up apart from the upcoming earnings, but with analysts’ expectations being fairly low, RIVN stock price could fall even more following its earnings unless it exceeds these expectations. The RIVN stock price has the potential to further decline as it is trading in a sideways channel below the 21, 50, and 200 MA, in addition to the MACD approaching a bearish crossover. A possible play would be going short with an entry on retests of the 21 MA and taking profits on retests of the lower trend line. RIVN Forecast Following the recent bearish trend in the EV market due to Tesla’s underwhelming Q1 earnings and Elon Musk’s statement regarding the market situation, most EV stocks have been plummeting including RIVN – which has already been dropping since its IPO. RIVN could be overpriced as the company lags behind in cutting losses and production numbers compared to PSNY – which is priced nearly three times lower- and lags behind in production numbers compared to NIO – which is priced at nearly two-thirds of the price of RIVN. RIVN is still facing major production issues as the company’s Q1 2023 production numbers are falling behind in comparison to that of Q4 2022. Furthermore, RIVN’s capital issues aren’t slowing down with the company’s cash on hand continuously decreasing, causing the company to negotiate its exclusivity deal with AMZN to bring in more customers. These factors resulted in many analysts and investors being bearish with most of them cutting their price target for the stock. And with the US treasury department’s new regulations regarding EV tax credits, RIVN could face more downside along with other EV stocks. As it is set to report its Q1 earnings on May 9th, the RIVN stock price might decrease further following the event due to low analysts’ expectations, and with RIVN having no major upcoming catalysts, the RIVN stock forecast could remain bearish moving forwards making it one of the EV stocks to avoid.
NASDAQ:RIVNShort
by Penny_Stocks_Today
Rivian in a descending wedge patternRivian hasn't been doing so well. The stock price has suffered from a long and sustained selloff and is well below the book price per share of $14.90. The descending wedge pattern that's emerging may indicate that the company's fortunes are about to change. Maybe the EV market will take off suddenly, maybe Rivian will announce a new model or post a surprise earnings report, or maybe an acquisition is looming. Rivian is ripe for acquisition and I can think of at least two tech companies that would be interested in buying their way into the EV market. Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) has always been rumored to dive into the EV business and has the cash to buy them outright. Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ) is Rivian's largest investor and needs them to manufacture their electric delivery vehicle fleet. Either way, the descending wedge (known as a "terminal" in NEOwave circles) if confirmed is likely to result in a full retrace of the wedge in a time span of approximately 3 months.
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by r5sn3kxfh6
RIVN, 10d+/-40.25%falling cycle -40.25% more than 10 days. ================================================================================================================================================================== This data is analyzed by robots. Analyze historical trends based on The Adam Theory of Markets (20 moving averages/60 moving averages/120 moving averages/240 moving averages) and estimate the trend in the next 10 days. The white line is the robot's expected price, and the upper and lower horizontal line stop loss and stop profit prices have no financial basis. The results are for reference only.
NASDAQ:RIVNShort
by Tonyder
RIVN - A competitor for Tesla?Rivian Automotive (RIVN) stock has recently hit a new 52-week low due to various factors, making it a highly volatile investment. The company's lower-than-expected production output in 2023, cash burn rate, and intensifying EV truck market competition have contributed to this decline. RIVN's Q1'23 deliveries beat estimates, but its 9.39K quarterly production remains unimpressive compared to the 50K annual guidance for FY2023. Furthermore, the company's cash burn rate is unsustainable, with a reliance on debt and capital raises until it achieves positive cash flow. Increased competition in the EV truck market is also a concern, with Ford and General Motors reporting success in their respective segments. Rivian's R1T has garnered positive reviews, but its price is significantly higher than competitors' base models. The stock remains suitable for investors with higher risk tolerances and a long-term investing trajectory. Despite recent recovery, RIVN's uncertain outlook combined with the macroeconomic environment makes the stock very unattractive. From a technical perspective, we may see a move to the upside that reaches the pink area marked on the chart between $17 and $18 but the higher probability move is a continuation to the downside, either from here or from the target area. We will keep you updated on any changes we see on the chart. In the meantime, please trade with care and stay safe!
NASDAQ:RIVNShort
by financialflagship
LOOKING FOR TRADESHello, Looking for trades using structured patterns is very helpful in trading the markets. The above/below shows how you can identify this moves for you to be aware of what to expect. An impulse is a strong move in one direction mostly referred to as the trend. From this its clear that we are in a downward trend for this stock. Tradingview also allows you to check and review Financial statements of cos by just clicking on any earnings date. This tells you where a company is at and where it is going. Good luck
NASDAQ:RIVNEducation
by thesharkke
2
Nothing has changedNothing in my count has changed. I believe we will get a decent drop into possibly this afternoon/beginning of next week with a higher chance of the latter. When we finally do get a drop I will be able to give more accurate end points for this wave 5 of C. When we do finally bottom I think Rivian stock will take off. If it follows Tesla then I don't think we will ever see these prices again. Electric vehicles are the future rather we want them or not. Rivian is uniquely positioned to gain from this adaption and are actively attempting to expand at a time when the economy is contracting. It will be interesting over the course of 10-30yrs which EV's make it or not. I putting my cards on Tesla #1 & Rivian #2. Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNShort
by TSuth
Does Rivian have more to give?We hit my wave 5 of iii in my last post and started our retrace for wave iv. We've already hit the 1.0 fib line of A-B @ $13.5 so that could be all it gives us for a retrace. The next motive wave we embark on SHOULD carve out our bottom. I will update more frequently and with more detail as that time approaches. If my thoughts are right it should start to descend tomorrow along with the S&P(which I am short as of this writing). Feel free to ask questions or PM me!! Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNShort
by TSuth
1
Is wave iii over??Rivian barely made it into my target box today for our wave 5 of iii, however, it along with its retrace was VERY VERY quick. So, although one could technically state we hit BOTH targets today...that is not my primary analysis. I feel we will still work our way down and have a more solid move into the box. Still no trades on Rivian yet. I decided NOT to sell what stock I have of Rivian, but will load up with around 500-600+ extra shares when I feel we hit bottom. Stay patient y'all!!! Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNShort
by TSuth
Rivian is behaving....so farNot much to add with this post. I changed it to a line graph to help drown out some of the volatility and improve clarity. Rivian appears to have hit both my wave 3&4 targets since my last post. However, it was very quick and would not surprise me if we haven't actually finished Wave 3. Chart shows my targets and they haven't changed. We shall see what happens Monday. My hope is we hit wave iii and then start our wave iv retrace but I doubt it'll be that quick. Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNShort
by TSuth
I couldn't resist buying some RIVIAN!ENGLISH NOTE: I do think the entire market still has a ton of downside to go. This is a long term investment, but I will start investing at this price. TO CONSIDER: 1. Rivian is the ONLY other electric car maker beyond Tesla that is actually mass producing units at a rapid pace. I like to use Lucid as a comparison, because they've been around forever and they can't deliver within their own production. 2. Rivian has also acquired and is scaling their facilities by 4 million SQ FT. This will allow for more vehicles to be produced, and also new longer range batteries and more. 3. They are being valued at numbers from their first couple of investment rounds. 4. It's NOT a shitcoin and it's down about 92% from ATH. 5. The reason why the price is coming down, is because they missed expectations by (what I consider) NOTHING, and also they had another recall that is very easy and extremely cheap to fix for all owners. 6. Remember the AMAZON ELECTRIC VEHICLES? yup, still making them for them. These are all the simple reasons beyond their own product I'm buying Rivian today. I own a Rivian and the product is fantastic. I don't doubt they will make it in the future. Specially knowing, their production side is solid. ------------- ESPANOL NOTA: Creo que todo el mercado todavía tiene muchas desventajas por recorrer. Esta es una inversión a largo plazo, pero comenzaré a invertir a este precio. A CONSIDERAR: 1. Rivian es el ÚNICO otro fabricante de automóviles eléctricos, además de Tesla, que en realidad está produciendo unidades en masa a un ritmo rápido. Me gusta usar Lucid como comparación, porque han existido desde siempre y no pueden cumplir con su propia producción. 2. Rivian también ha adquirido y está ampliando sus instalaciones por 4 millones de pies cuadrados. Esto permitirá que se produzcan más vehículos, y también nuevas baterías de mayor alcance y más. 3. Están siendo valorados en números de sus primeras rondas de inversión. 4. NO es una 'SHITCOIN' y está un 92% por debajo de su alto historico. 5. La razón por la que el precio está bajando es porque no cumplieron con las expectativas por (lo que considero) NADA, y también tuvieron otro retiro del mercado que es muy fácil y extremadamente económico de arreglar para todos los propietarios. 6. ¿Recuerdas los VEHÍCULOS ELÉCTRICOS AMAZON? Sí, todavía los hago para ellos. Estas son todas las razones simples más allá de su propio producto por las que estoy comprando Rivian hoy. Tengo un Rivian y el producto es fantástico. No dudo que lo hagan en el futuro. Especialmente sabiendo, su lado de producción es sólido.
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by salomondrin
4