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RIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE INCRIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE INCRIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE INC

RIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE INC

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RIVN trade ideas

Rivian Weekend UpdateRivian, much like Tesla has a couple different counts that are possible where we're at right now. In the bottom right of the chart there is a key labeling the different counts. ALL three have an equal chance of coming to fruition. They're also all very similar to each other but the details are important to the long-term count. Primary suggests iv is done and we're headed up for v to our next target in the high $17 - low $18 area. MACD, fibs, & structure support this count the most IMO. 1st ALT suggests wave iv isn't done yet and we should head a little lower to the yellow box before heading up for wave v of C of a. Normally you won't see MACD go much below the zero line during wave 4's though so I'm skeptical of this count. 2nd ALT states we already topped in a larger a wave and are about to head lower for b to the $15 area. MACD supports this count and fibs/structure also support this count. I know, there are many possibilities from here. As I have said in the past, corrective patterns can be complex and difficult to count. This isn't necessarily complex right now, but there are just too many options to make a definitive decision. One thing to take away from this, though without 100% confirmation, I'm saying the bottom is in! I am holding my positions right now and if price falls to the yellow box I may buy in more, and if it falls to the orange box I will 100% buy more shares. Don't forget, beginning February 23rd, I will be dramatically changing my posting schedule here on trading view. My last regular post / update will be on that day.
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TSuth
19
RIVN Stock – Opportunity Knocks?EV startup Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) caught the market’s attention recently when it revealed that its vans would no longer be exclusive to Amazon as the four-year exclusivity agreement between the two companies ended. This opened the door for other companies to do business with the EV company, and AT&T quickly jumped on the opportunity, signing an agreement to include Rivian vehicles in its fleet as soon as early 2024. The news boosted RIVN stock, and even though it closed 2023 up almost 40%, there’s still a lot of potential for future growth that could reward investors. Ending its Amazon Deal Rivian became a public company in 2021, the same year it launched the world’s first electric pickup truck. It was met with great fanfare in the market, but the company has been on a roller-coaster ride since its IPO. Troubles started for the company in 2022, when its stock tumbled after it had to recall nearly all of its 13,000 vehicles on the road to fix a steering defect. Following a roughly 140% rally over the course of three months in August 2023, RIVN stock began dropping with profit taking. While the stock closed 2023 up almost 40%, so far this year RIVN stock is down 29% and is still trading 79% below its IPO price of $78. Against this tumultuous backdrop, investors were relieved to get some good news in Rivian’s Q3 results. One important development announced during its Q3 results was that Rivian will allow customers other than Amazon to purchase its commercial electric vans. The agreement with Amazon, its 17% shareholder, in 2019, included provisions preventing Rivian from selling its commercial vans to other customers, giving Amazon exclusive access to them for four years. AT&T Partnership Following this news, on December 14th, telecommunications giant AT&T announced that it will begin adding the Rivian Commercial Van and R1 vehicles to its fleet in early 2024. In addition to that, the partnership between the two companies makes AT&T the exclusive provider of connectivity to all Rivian vehicles, in the U.S. and Canada. AT&T had previously revealed that it’s committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2035, and according to the telecom company, integrating Rivian’s electric vehicles into its fleet is part of its plan to cut transport emissions and reduce its carbon footprint. With AT&T also bcoming the provider of connectivity to all Rivian vehicles in the U.S. and Canada, the automaker is provided with a more connected driving experience, using over-the-air software updates to consistently improve its vehicles with new features that elevate the driving experience for its customers. RIVN Stock Q3 Results Adding to the good news, the company’s Q3 results were better than expected, recording a revenue of $1.34 billion, a 149.44% increase from the same period in the previous year, and beating estimates by $22.36 million. Even though Rivian is still operating on a loss, with an EPS of negative $1.19 in Q3, it still beat estimates by $0.13. The news caused RIVN stock to surge almost 60% in December, as interest in electric pickup trucks increased following the release of Tesla’s Cybertruck. RIVN Stock Catalysts Aside from this partnership, there are other factors that could lead to massive growth for Rivian. The most important is how Rivian is positioned in the market compared to its peers. For instance, while Rivian announced better than expected Q3 results, automaker Ford announced that it would cut production of its F-150 Lightning in half. Even though the Lightning is the electric version of its best-selling pickup truck, the company only sold 3,503 F-150 Lightning pickups in Q3, compared to 186,974 vehicles of its non-electric F-150 model. Ford cited “changing market demand” as the reason for its production cut. Meanwhile, Rivian raised its 2023 production guidance to 54,000 electric vehicles, up from 52,000 in August. The company stated that this increase is due to progress on its production lines, the ramp-up of its in-house motor line, and the supply chain outlook. According to the company’s Q3 earning call, it delivered 15,564 vehicles out of 16,304 vehicles produced in the quarter, recording a loss of $30,648 per vehicle delivered. Despite that, it’s still an improvement from last year’s 6,584 vehicles delivered, with a $139,277 loss per vehicle. Declining Lithium Prices Another factor that could help Rivian in the future is the expected improvement in the company’s gross margin thanks to declining lithium prices. Although lithium prices may vary by region, a price index tracked by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence fell 81% in 2023 and analysts expect further declines in 2024. Future Partnerships Also, the conclusion of Rivian’s four-year partnership with Amazon opens the door for partnerships with other companies. Even though its agreement with Amazon ended, Rivian still remains committed to delivering 100,000 vans ordered by Amazon by 2030. This ongoing relationship with Amazon, coupled with the new deal with AT&T, shows Rivian’s growing influence in the EV market and provides potential growth opportunities in the future. Electric Pickups Another advantage Rivian has is its focus on electric pickups, which could position it as the dominant company in that market. Other EV startups, such as Lucid and Fisker, are struggling to compete in the market of sedans and SUVs, delivering 1,457 vehicles and 1,097 vehicles in Q3 respectively. Whereas legacy automakers like Ford delivered 20,962 vehicles – the second highest number of EV sales in Q3 after Tesla’s 435,000 vehicles. Newcomers like Lucid and Fisker struggle to gain market share in a field swamped by well established players. Now, these EV startups seem to recognize the opportunity which the electric pickup market presents. Fisker announced its own pickup truck, Fisker Alaska, which is set to be released in 2025, and Lucid previously revealed plans to release an electric pickup truck by 2030. However, Rivian has a first mover advantage that allows it to compete with legacy automakers in the electric pickup segment. Its focus on this segment could also help it outpace other EV startups. Even though electric pickups are still a fairly new concept in the EV industry, with just 2% of all pickups sold in the US in 2023 being electric, the market shows potential for long-term growth. In fact, the electric truck market was expected to grow at an annual growth rate of 34.2% from 2022 to 2023, fueled by governments’ increased focus on emission-free vehicles and new policies in commercial and logistics sectors. This segment of the EV market will likely be helped along by policies like the Biden administration’s goal of having 50% of all new vehicle sales be electric by 2030. Other initiatives like the EV Acceleration Challenge, are meant to encourage industry stakeholders to make commitments to support the transition to electric vehicles. As time passes, these governments and stakeholders will target the broader truck market for transitioning to electric – benefiting RIVN stock in the long-run. Challenges But this is not to say that Rivian is without its challenges. For starters, Rivian is continuing construction on a $5 billion plant in Georgia, which is intended to be the company’s largest production facility. But this comes with a risk. The state of Georgia and local governments planned to provide Rivian with $1.5 billion in subsidies. Unfortunately for Rivian, these subsidies were met with a legal challenge that has halted it for the time being at least. Despite this legal battle, Rivian is still moving forward with construction on the plant and is expected to begin producing cars at this location as early as 2024. Rivian also had to cancel an agreement with Mercedes Benz to produce electric vans in Europe, stating that it decided to focus on developing and producing Rivian’s own vehicles. RIVN Stock Forecast With all of these factors in mind, Rivian could be a great investment opportunity for long-term investors who don’t mind the fact that the company still has a few years to go to reach profitability as long as it’s poised for strong future growth. RIVN stock saw impressive growth in December 2023 due to great Q3 earnings results and the conclusion of Rivian’s exclusivity agreement with Amazon. Now, the door is open for the EV startup to do business with other companies, the first of them being the United States’ leading telecommunication company, AT&T. Rivian is set on increasing its production and dominating the EV market’s small electric pickup trucks segment, which could lead to the company reaching profitability and completely owning the segment. There’s a long road ahead before RIVN is in a position to achieve this, but if you’re a patient investor who doesn’t mind waiting, then RIVN stock could be a promising opportunity at its current price.
NASDAQ:RIVN
by Penny_Stocks_Today
$RIVN - ladies and gentleman start your enginesNASDAQ:RIVN - this looks like the perfect long going into earnings. Looking at the chart, Rivian tends to rip with very volatile moves up (and down). Looks to have bottomed based on the chart. Significant volume on 2/8 with a bullish engulfing candle. MACD cross confirmed as well. The last two times the chart appeared to bottom with MACD crosses we have seen 100%+ and 45%+ gains in a fairly short timeframe. Currently have mapped around a 30% gain from closing price on Friday. I am optimistic and added a small starter position on Friday, 2/9. I will keep averaging in up until earnings.
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by jhuey235
2
RIVN a short entry on the rejection by VWAP SHORTPIVN on the 15-minute chart was trading up against the dominant supertrend from last Thursday. Mid-morning price hit the resistance of the intermediate term mean anchored VWAP and reversed as suggested yesterday by the bearish divergence on the zero-lag MACD. Tomorrow is federal news which could increase general market volatility. I see a short trade targeting 15.25 in the area of the bottom of two-volume profiles anchored back 2 weeks. The stop loss is 15.9 at the highs of nearby candle wicks. Once the the move gets underway, those already in long positions may close to take profit and add into any short selling underway.
NASDAQ:RIVNShort
by AwesomeAvani
RIVIAN 40% -50%+ on what could just be a lower highEV has been hated lately. I look for areas of value where sentiment is overly negative. RIVIAN is showing relative strength to the market today, currently up 3% while the a lot of the market bleeds. The range forming on RIVIAN has a gap above at $22-$23, I think we fill that. $15 has been a pivotal level in the last year or so for Rivian and I see that level holding with a bullish inverted head and shoulders. Again, this is just a range trade with good R &R.
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by stevezer0
Rivian Update: FINALLY some good price actionWe FINALLY some good price action today. Price ended 10.11% up from its LOD, MACD made a new local high, and price finally started to raise with strength. The reason I mention with strength is because of that high MACD made. That was very important because had it not made a new high, this would have turned out to be just another minor c wave before dropping even further. However, it and price BOTH made new local highs. If you can follow my count, we are currently topping in wave iii, with OMH possible, and wave iv to follow. Wave 4 should take us down to the 0.786 area around $16.10 before raising again for v of C of a towards the 1.618 fib if this is to remain standard. Wave 2 was deep and short, so I expect 4 to be shallow and long in order for the theory of alternation to stay intact. Don't forget though, this is an overall larger corrective count by my thesis so it can become extremely complex at times. This makes it harder to count, but ultimately it should head towards my larger target box that has $35.58 as a minimum target. That is partially why i have the turquoise ABC on the chart. If you recall from some of my older posts c-waves can be 3 or 5 wave structures. Price has already hit the 1.0 of the A-B waves, so this could be it for the initial a wave of this larger count. I don't think this is the case, but very possible. Thought process simplified: 1. We make a 5-wave C wave higher to the 1.618 @ $17.69 area to finish initial a wave. 2. We make a 3-wave C wave higher which would complete the initial a wave. Price action should tell us within the next couple trading days which will come to fruition. Botom line is, today was much needed and mixed with the daily MACD, makes me that much more confident the bottom is officially in. Don't forget, beginning February 23rd, I will be dramatically changing my posting schedule here on trading view. My last regular post / update will be on that day.
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TSuth
11
Rivian Update: Daily MACD Flashes Buy/Bullish SignalToday may not have seemed that important, but to dismiss it as just another day is a mistake. As one of my followers mentioned earlier, MACD flashed its first green signal since 29 Dec of last year. I mentioned the other day the MACD line was about to cross the signal line, and that's exactly what we got today. Looking at the daily chart, it also appears we have our first 1-2 of our larger A of (C). There is still the possibility we're in an ED with OML to come, but that is seeming more and more unlikely. Not to mention all the good news that has been coming out about Rivian, mainly the R2 and moving into foreign markets, and the earnings coming up should help to be catalysts for this move higher. Should we make a new low I still feel it will be very marginal and only presents another buying opportunity. As mentioned earlier I bought another 5 calls today bringing my Rivian assets to 520 shares and 35 calls. As you can see towards the top of the chart that is where I am projecting price to take us for (C). There is also the possibility price takes us all the way to the 1.618 but until I have more data I can't conclude for sure where our top might end up. Tomorrow I will be watching closely and will update if fireworks happen. I also want to remind everyone that beginning February 23rd, I will be dramatically changing my posting schedule here on trading view. My final regular/normal posting will be on that day.
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TSuth
56
Bullish Gartley on the daily HOLD ON TIGHTOn my last thread that I have made I was predicting a bullish Eve Adam pattern which has been invalidated due to the lack of a swift reversal. As well as the invalidation of the Inverse head and shoulders on the lower time frames. This being said there is yet another bullish pattern that we have. Since we did not create a new lower low last week or today and it seems like EV's are in a slight reversal trend which could give us a nice boost. Anyways on the daily time frame I am seeing a bullish gartley pattern as shown in the picture with the blue triangles this pattern is valid as long as we do not go past the .78 fib retracement that would bring us to approximately $13.5 area. I strongly believe that we will have our answer if we are going lower only once earnings on February 21st come out. If they are positive we get the GREEN light if its negative and I mean both numbers then I will sell my positions and hold until further notice. Lower time frames have divergences forming and already playing out on the 3H 2H and 1H. If earnings are positive which Im 67% sure they will be, then the measured move to the up side is $34.4 Today we also got a nice Bullish engulfing candle on the daily and it closed above the Point Of Control (red line) We also have a gap to fill at $23 and those 70% of the time get filled higher which would take us to about $24. This will be a great magnet for price to get pulled up higher. KEY DATES: February 21st - Earnings (Neutral) March 7th - Rivian unveils R2 (full release will not come until 2026) (Bullish) March 19th/20th - FOMC interest rate decision (Bullish) March and April best months for stocks (Bullish)
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by skaterxmetal1
Rivian Update: 02/04/2024Rivian's structure looks much like Tesla's. The difference between the two, I still feel Tesla is within a larger bull count, whereas I feel Rivian is within a larger corrective count. This makes me much stricter on the structure Tesla carves out vs Rivian. Rivian's next move higher will be that of an A wave which can appear as a 3 or 5 wave move. This can appear corrective or impulsive in nature. The chop down from the 29 Jan high doesn't appear as an ED but instead as a corrective structure lower. With how Tesla can affect Rivian though, it can easily pull it down with it. Looking at the daily MACD, the MACD line is about to cross the signal line. This is a bullish indicator and tells us the next larger move up will begin soon. The big question is, will we make another low first or head higher next. IDK the answer to this right now, but I do know the move higher marches closer and closer. I expect the S&P to start its b wave lower this week so I imagine it will pull on Rivian at least slightly.
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TSuth
48
Rivian Update: Being patientThe strength Rivian has been showing as of late is promising. However, price still appears corrective. Also, we still didn't breach the prior high the MACD made on 22 Jan. Price has been overlapping and didn't breach the 23 Jan high. These mentions I make of MACD / price aren't required yet with this count but are signals Rivian will most likely move lower before higher. With EWT, it takes emotions off the table (or at least should), and just looks at raw facts/price action. News/fundamentals are already baked into the chart. Not saying they're unimportant as some of the best traders in the world use fundamentals. EWT is in its own league though. The daily MACD was able to raise a little giving us some more breathing room as far as that's concerned. I mentioned in a prior post, these last moves higher could be a couple 4-5's to get MACD to raise a little on the daily before the final low. That final low should be a quick drop before raising higher in (C). I would love for the bottom to be in, but EWT is suggesting another low before that happens. With all the uncertainty it could be masking/skewing this last raise higher as I do believe it is a larger corrective pattern. Without more data I can't be certain, but I would be prepared for another drop lower to the 0.786 @ $14.13. If this happens, as I said in a prior post, I will be buying calls in mass. These will most likely expire 2-3 months from the purchase date. I will update tomorrow as able. Don't forget starting March 1st my posting schedule will alter dramatically on here.
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TSuth
11
Rivian looking juicy on multiple different indicatorsHey everyone this will be my first post ever on this website and im super excited to be able to share my ideas and see what people think. Normally this isnt something I do but Rivian has been something special for me. Anyways Currently predicting an Eve Adam pattern which I have found to be bullish through tests in the past and most people are familiar with Adam and Eve pattern but as of lately that has shown to be more bearish than bullish in my opinion and from what I have seen in the past year. If this pattern plays out then we could see rivian going up into the $39-$40 price target range. MacD on the daily just flipped, RSI has plenty of room to the upside, and Stochastic RSI is pushing upwards. We bounced off the POC (Point of Control) at $14.87 which has since moved up to $15.34. FOMC is today and rates will most likely stay the same but if we see a cut markets will go bananas because its not priced in for a decrease. Earnings are February 21st but this is for Q4 of 2023 which were good for Rivian despite not selling as many cars as they have hoped. On the Shorter term 2H chart we are seeing a head and shoulders pattern as well, a flipping of the MacD, and RSI staying above 50, as well as Stochastic RSI curling back up.
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by skaterxmetal1
2
RIVIAN Low risk buy opportunity at least on the short-term.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) hit the $21.00 Target following our November 29 2023 (see chart below) buy call but even though it confidently broke above the Bearish Megaphone, the price corrected aggressively back even below the Higher Lows Zone: The price is at the moment coming off an oversold 1D RSI Double Bottom, naturally below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Even though the long-term pattern remains a Channel Up (blue), we have to consider the possibility of the (dashed) Channel Down breaking below it and establishing a new long-term trend. Until that happens, this is a short-term buy opportunity, with our Target being $23.00, right at the top of the Channel Down, on the (dotted) median of the Channel Up, representing a +62.17% rise from the Channel's bottom, similar to the December 26 2023 Lower High (peak). If then we get a 1W candle closing above the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line), which will be the stock's first time to do so, we will buy the bullish break-out and pursue our long-term Target of $35.50, which will represent a +142.79% rise from the bottom, similar to the last Bullish Leg of the long-term Channel Up that peaked on July 27 2023. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TradingShot
2
RIVIAN Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 012924Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 16.2/61.80% Chart time frame : B A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress : B A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) Hit the bottom D) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
NASDAQ:RIVN
by fibonacci6180
Rivian Update: 1/28/24There isn't much to add from my last post. Price action since Thursday of last week seems corrective to me and so I am counting this as our final wave iv of 5 of C of (B). We could have technically bottomed already but the most recent price action doesn't suggest that to me. If we do get one more low, I would like it to ideally be fast and then a strong move higher. The reason I say this is due to the daily MACD. It still hasn't crossed my threshold but is very close. One-two more red days or a strong red day and I believe it will breach it. The orange fibs you see on the chart are just tracking this last 5-wave move lower. As you can see there is quite a bit of fib resistance in this area. This confluence is a good thing as it acts as strong support. There has started to be an awful lot of positive news coming out for Rivian as of late such as the R2 and the Apple exec coming onboard to help. We shall see soon!
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TSuth
22
Rivian Update: Structure looks nearly completeFirst thing I want to point out is we have yet to breach the previous low the 1HR MACD made on 06 October 23'. We haven't even come close. This is re-assuring to me that the prior decline was the A wave of this larger count. We are still in the target box too. Even though Tesla dropped almost 20%, Rivian has held up rather well comparatively only dropping 5.3%. We're still much lower than I anticipated this move down to go from the $24.62 high, but I can see a light at the end of this tunnel. There are so many bullish signals piling up, I don't see how this ticker can drop much further. The 0.786 retracement is @ $14.13 and the 1.0 extension is at $13.07. Both of these fibs are strong resistance/support levels and ideally should act as a springboard. As said in a previous post, if we make it down to the 1.0 @ 13.07, I will be buying calls in mass for the move higher. There is always the possibility to drop further towards the 1.236 extension @ $11.26, so keep that in the back of your mind. I don't anticipate this, but Rivian has surprised me as of late. On a micro scale, structure appears to be in wave v of C with at least OML to come. I anticipate with-in the next week or so at most Rivian starts to move much higher again in wave (C). You've seen how strong this latest c wave down has been, and you can check out the C wave Tesla is in right now that witnessed an almost 20% decline in less than 24hrs....
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TSuth
7
Rivian Update: When will the carnage end?We never got the confirmation/clues I said we needed to say price had carved a bottom. Today, we breached that $15.12 bottom, so the previous impulsive count has officially been invalidated. As previously stated, we now look towards out next levels of support. On the micros we bounced off the 1.236 fib but the next larger line of resistance is $14.13 @ the 0.786 fib retracement of our larger (A) wave. We are in the typical area for this retrace to end. Normally I would expect us to tag the 1.0 extension of our a-b waves which would be $13.07 as stated in a previous post. Rather we drop to that low or not remains to be seen. I feel Tesla's moves today weighed hard on Rivian. Every chart stands on their own, but the leader can weigh heavy on up-and-coming stocks at times. Today is case and point. We knew this was a possibility though and should have been prepared. Thankfully stocks don't have decay, and the few options I have, (I hope yours as well) still have 1-2 months left before they expire. So, there is plenty of time for price to turn around. Today didn't help the daily MACD, but it is still changing direction to the upside. As long as we have another couple green days it should be in much safer territory. As of now, as you can see, we still have positive divergence on the hourly MACD. The further we drop from here, the further our upside target lowers though. Let's see what tomorrow brings for Rivian.
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TSuth
11
Rivian Update: So far so goodI think I may finally be on to something tonight. After looking at/refining this most recent decline, I drew some fib extensions, and look at how accurate this one seems to be on the 15min chart below. We bottomed on the 1.118 extension to the cent. The other lines are acting as resistance/support as well. This to me, is the most probable area for these mini-a-b waves of micro-wave c of B of (C). Confused yet lol. I always have to check my labeling degrees when typing this stuff because they can get switched around very easily. Essentially what this means, if this is the correct count, is that we have in fact bottomed. Also, price has been bouncing off the new lower trend line I have drawn. This in itself isn't confirmation though, as I still want us to breach the $17.12 area. That isn't the confirmation we need either but is a big clue the bottom is in. Unfortunately, we won't get 100% confirmation until we breach our previous high of $24.62. These little things I am pointing out though, when/if they happen, are big clues that the uptrend has resumed. If the up-trend has resumed, then I anticipate us to make our way up to the next target box in a 5-wave move. There is a possibility that this could extend all the way up to the 1.618 extension @ $63.95, but at this time I feel that is a low probability. As of now, my previous target of $36.87-$51.82 will remain until I have information that points elsewhere. Tomorrow, I want to be a green day and for price not to breach my trend line. This will help the daily MACD continue curling up and possibly even point upwards to avoid crossing that red line I have been mentioning. I question how Tesla earning will affect Rivian tomorrow...
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TSuth
19
Rivian Update: Today was a good startToday was a good start but nothing is confirmed yet. We raised strong early in the day and then spent the remainder meandering down. I had mentioned in a comment that we needed to watch the 0.618 fib @ $16.65 as a possible resistance level. Well, as you can see on the 3min chart at the bottom, we smacked into it and then got rejected. I was hoping we would drop no lower than $16.11 which would have meant it was a mini wave 4 in a micro-1. The fact that we did drop lower means this was either all a mini-wave 1 or mini-c-wave higher in wave iv of C of (B). What does that mean? It means we didn't get any concrete answers today. This retrace could have been a function of either my primary or ALT. As I said, this was a good start though. The reason I say that is how high the MACD rose on the 3min chart below. The strength that it showed is very promising the bottom is in. Price also carved out a bottom on pos div. which is needed to have a trend change. On the main chart above, MACD looks to be starting to curve higher. I expected today to be green if you recall from yesterday's post. Rivian needed a green day to get the daily MACD to start changing direction. Should tomorrow be red again, MACD will once again be in danger of creating a new low on the daily. If it crosses my red line, then that suggests Rivian is in some serious trouble. I have my stop still in place for $15.50, because I feel if we drop below that, there is a very good chance price will fall all the way to the $13 area. If this has all be the a-b waves of iv then the clues will be in MACD. If it at any time MACD creates a high above todays on the 3min chart, that will be a clue that the bottom is in. If price makes a new high and begins to fall without MACD making a new high that leads credence to a wave iv. I'm hoping tomorrow we finally find out for sure. I will be watching for us to breach the $17.12 high within the next couple days.
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TSuth
11
Rivian Update--01/21/2024As much as I want this thing to have bottomed, it may need another low to make first. The reason being is when you zoom out to the bigger picture, look at the descent from the 26 Dec high. It has been a very strong one-sided move. This is very typical of C waves. Not to mention the MACD made its lowest low on 05 Oct. The two counts you see here are very close to each other and either one could be right. On the micros price has carved what appears to be a 5-wave move higher. This could be the first wave in our move higher for (C) or it could be a mini-a-wave for wave iv of C of (B). A wave iv of C of (B) would also make sense because it would allow the daily MACD to start resetting higher before a final push down for v. We are currently within the normal end point for this move though, and the indices look ready to continue moving higher. Will they pull Rivian higher with them? This week should provide us with some valuable clues. If we end up making another low towards the 1.0 @ $13.07, I will be buying calls in mass and most likely some shares too. The next primary move higher will be a C wave and they are typically very strong moves as you are witnessing now. Current Rivian Assets: 500 Shares 20 Calls
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TSuth
32
Rivian update: The not so good dayRivian has been very frustrating as of late. It just seems it doesn't want to cooperate. The question I started asking myself today; Is this count correct? Technically speaking nothing is invalidated as wave 2's can retrace up to 99.9% of wave 1 and still be valid. Thats not something which is common though, especially in a wave 3 of ANY degree. Today we came 0.24 cents away from our wave 1 low. Due to how deep this retrace has been I wanted to try and look at this from a new angle. The ALT labels have changed slightly, but the overall thought of my ALT has remained. Another way this action could be interpreted (which seems very likely after today), the prior wave (1) is actually an (A) wave. That would mean what I called wave (2) is actually our (B) wave, and we are currently in the last machinations of wave B of (C). Regardless of if this is the case or not, I would expect this decline to end shortly and head higher. The big difference is b waves can go slightly past the origin of its respective a wave. On the MACD I have drawn a line which is the most recent low it carved out on our last move down. If we drop below this line, then Rivian stock has some very serious problems. It would most likely be a sign made from insider selling signifying we are headed much much lower, and the company itself could be in some very serious trouble not unlike Fisker. In doing some research earlier, I found that over the last 12 months insiders bought 1,059,923 shares and sold 1,797,602. However, in the last 3 months they have bought 439,174 shares and only sold 8,890. That equates to a net negative of 737,679 shares in the last 12 months but a net positive of 430,284. (Data retrieved from nasdaq.com) Are these insiders telling us something? Or is it pure coincidence? One thing is for certain, insiders have much more knowledge of what is coming then we do. They help to create the entire pattern we interpret as they are usually the biggest holders of a particular stock. We will have to wait for what comes next to determine if this has all been corrective, or if we are in fact in a new bull run. As stated above, after today, I am leaning towards my ALT count. Until the primary has been invalidated or a clear corrective structure gets carved out though, I will keep my primary. Let's hope tomorrow is better to us.
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TSuth
33